{
 "version": "v1",
 "built": "2026-09-22 06:19",
 "slug": "marlon-nyc-2026-09-15",
 "config": {
  "asr_delay_s": 15,
  "push_s": 5,
  "tick_s": 30,
  "window_s": 90,
  "threshold": 0.6,
  "debounce_s": 60,
  "gate_model": "jev-latest (TypeSafe.ai)",
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   "fehlende_info": [
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   "aufgabe": [
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  "questions": {
   "ank_trigger": "Kuendigt jemand an, etwas spaeter zu tun, zu besprechen oder zu klaeren?",
   "ank_substanz": "Geht es bei dem, was angekuendigt oder vertagt wird, um Arbeit, Firma, Geld, Zahlen, Termine, Buchungen oder Organisation, nicht um Essen, Trinken oder Witze?",
   "auf_trigger": "Deutet das Gespraech darauf hin, dass die Gruppe in den naechsten Minuten aufbricht oder den Ort wechselt?",
   "auf_substanz": "Ist noch ungeklaert, wie oder womit die Gruppe weiterkommt, oder wohin genau sie geht?",
   "info_trigger": "Fehlt der Gruppe eine konkrete Information oder Zahl, die keiner der Anwesenden kennt?",
   "info_substanz": "Haengt an dieser fehlenden Information eine Entscheidung, die die Gruppe jetzt oder gleich treffen will?",
   "task_trigger": "Wird eine Aufgabe erwaehnt, die jemand spaeter noch erledigen muss?",
   "task_substanz": "Ist diese Aufgabe eine Arbeits- oder Organisationsaufgabe mit Nachverfolgung, zum Beispiel jemandem schreiben, etwas nachschlagen, etwas buchen oder berechnen?",
   "aufnahme_sorge": "Aeussert jemand Unbehagen darueber, dass das Gespraech aufgezeichnet wird?",
   "macht_selbst": "Ist die Gruppe gerade aktiv dabei, genau die Sache selbst zu erledigen, bei der Hilfe nuetzlich waere, zum Beispiel bestellen, bezahlen, eine App bedienen?"
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  "prompt_file": "card_prompt_marlon.txt"
 },
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     "raw": "{\n  \"beobachtung\": \"[0:04:06] Speaker 1: \\\"You are warned not to be streaming.\\\" / [0:04:09] Unknown: \\\"We just record, we're not streaming.\\\" / [0:04:13] Unknown: \\\"No, I guess not. Where? Well, I don't want to get recorded.\\\"\",\n  \"vorhersage\": \"The group is in a museum/exhibit space where a staff member or bystander has just objected to being recorded. Marlon will need to decide quickly whether to stop the camera, move away, or address the objection — and the objection will persist as long as they remain in that spot with cameras rolling.\",\n  \"reasoning\": \"The pre-filter 'aufnahme_sorge' fired at 0.93 and the transcript confirms a real recording objection from a bystander at 04:06–04:13, which is exactly the signal's target. This is not a sub-30-second task: an objection to being filmed in a public exhibit typically requires the streamer to either relocate, pause the camera, or negotiate, and the person has already stated they don't want to be recorded. Because the card appears 10–30 seconds after now, the group will likely still be in the same spot mid-conversation with the objector, so the need persists. Earlier in the stream they were freely filming explicit museum items, so this is the first real friction point — worth surfacing. A card is appropriate because it's a stream-ops decision, not something a friend can resolve in seconds.\",\n  \"alternativen\": [\n    {\"karte\": \"Note the exhibit for later content\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"The exhibit is being actively filmed right now; noting it adds nothing while a recording objection is live.\"},\n    {\"karte\": \"Find nearest exit / quiet spot\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"Too presumptive — the group may just want to pause the camera, not leave the building.\"}\n  ],\n  \"karte\": true,\n  \"kategorie\": \"stream_ops\",\n  \"titel\": \"Recording objection nearby\",\n  \"zeile\": \"Bystander said they don't want to be recorded — pause or move?\",\n  \"aktion\": \"Opens a quick sheet to pause the camera or mark the location to move away from\",\n  \"optionen\": [\"Pause camera now\", \"Move to another spot\", \"Note and continue\"],\n  \"haltbar_s\": 120,\n  \"konfidenz\": 0.82,\n  \"risiko\": \"If the objector already left or the group already stopped filming, the card is noise; also if the 'Unknown' speaker was joking, this over-reacts.\",\n  \"grund\": \"A bystander explicitly objected to being recorded at 04:06–04:13, and the group is still on the spot with cameras running.\"\n}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "[0:04:06] Speaker 1: \"You are warned not to be streaming.\" / [0:04:09] Unknown: \"We just record, we're not streaming.\" / [0:04:13] Unknown: \"No, I guess not. Where? Well, I don't want to get recorded.\"",
     "vorhersage": "The group is in a museum/exhibit space where a staff member or bystander has just objected to being recorded. Marlon will need to decide quickly whether to stop the camera, move away, or address the objection — and the objection will persist as long as they remain in that spot with cameras rolling.",
     "reasoning": "The pre-filter 'aufnahme_sorge' fired at 0.93 and the transcript confirms a real recording objection from a bystander at 04:06–04:13, which is exactly the signal's target. This is not a sub-30-second task: an objection to being filmed in a public exhibit typically requires the streamer to either relocate, pause the camera, or negotiate, and the person has already stated they don't want to be recorded. Because the card appears 10–30 seconds after now, the group will likely still be in the same spot mid-conversation with the objector, so the need persists. Earlier in the stream they were freely filming explicit museum items, so this is the first real friction point — worth surfacing. A card is appropriate because it's a stream-ops decision, not something a friend can resolve in seconds.",
     "risiko": "If the objector already left or the group already stopped filming, the card is noise; also if the 'Unknown' speaker was joking, this over-reacts.",
     "konfidenz": 0.82,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Note the exhibit for later content",
       "verworfen_weil": "The exhibit is being actively filmed right now; noting it adds nothing while a recording objection is live."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Find nearest exit / quiet spot",
       "verworfen_weil": "Too presumptive — the group may just want to pause the camera, not leave the building."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [
      "Pause camera now",
      "Move to another spot",
      "Note and continue"
     ],
     "karte": true,
     "kategorie": "stream_ops",
     "titel": "Recording objection nearby",
     "zeile": "Bystander said they don't want to be recorded — pause or move?",
     "aktion": "Opens a quick sheet to pause the camera or mark the location to move away from",
     "haltbar_s": 120,
     "grund": "A bystander explicitly objected to being recorded at 04:06–04:13, and the group is still on the spot with cameras running.",
     "verdict": "late",
     "late_by": 8,
     "need": "stream_ops",
     "need_start": 246
    },
    "z-ai/glm-5.3-flash": {
     "lat": 13.9,
     "visible_at": 288.9,
     "cost": 0.00041034,
     "raw": "{\n \"beobachtung\": \"[0:04:06] Speaker 1: \\\"You are warned not to be streaming.\\\" [0:04:09] Unknown: \\\"We just record, we're not streaming.\\\" — venue staff warning while the stream is still live.\",\n \"vorhersage\": \"Marlon needs to stop or pause the live stream immediately (or switch to local recording) to avoid being kicked out or banned; the need persists for the next few minutes while they stay inside the venue.\",\n \"reasoning\": \"The staff explicitly distinguished streaming from recording, and the group is currently live — a real compliance risk, not just chat noise. The conversation is still unfolding at 04:15 and the group hasn't resolved it, so at card visibility (~04:40) the stream is likely still running and the need still exists. This is a stream_ops action that takes longer than 30 seconds and has lasting consequences (clip, ban, ejection). Earlier in the stream they were browsing exhibits freely, so the venue tolerance just changed — acting now is the point.\",\n \"alternativen\": [{\"karte\": \"Note exhibit idea for later video\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"Capturing content ideas is lower priority than the immediate streaming violation.\"}, {\"karte\": \"Find exit / leave venue\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"They seem to want to stay; leaving is only a fallback if staff escalate.\"}],\n \"karte\": true,\n \"kategorie\": \"stream_ops\",\n \"titel\": \"Staff: no streaming here\",\n \"zeile\": \"Venue says recording only — end stream now?\",\n \"aktion\": \"Open stream controls to end or pause the live broadcast\",\n \"optionen\": [\"End stream now\", \"Pause stream\", \"Switch to recording\"],\n \"haltbar_s\": 240,\n \"konfidenz\": 0.86,\n \"risiko\": \"Wrong if the staff member was joking, the venue allows streaming, or Marlon already ended the stream during the 15-second transcript lag.\",\n \"grund\": \"The group is still live-streaming after being explicitly told streaming is not allowed, and that violation persists beyond card latency.\"\n}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "[0:04:06] Speaker 1: \"You are warned not to be streaming.\" [0:04:09] Unknown: \"We just record, we're not streaming.\" — venue staff warning while the stream is still live.",
     "vorhersage": "Marlon needs to stop or pause the live stream immediately (or switch to local recording) to avoid being kicked out or banned; the need persists for the next few minutes while they stay inside the venue.",
     "reasoning": "The staff explicitly distinguished streaming from recording, and the group is currently live — a real compliance risk, not just chat noise. The conversation is still unfolding at 04:15 and the group hasn't resolved it, so at card visibility (~04:40) the stream is likely still running and the need still exists. This is a stream_ops action that takes longer than 30 seconds and has lasting consequences (clip, ban, ejection). Earlier in the stream they were browsing exhibits freely, so the venue tolerance just changed — acting now is the point.",
     "risiko": "Wrong if the staff member was joking, the venue allows streaming, or Marlon already ended the stream during the 15-second transcript lag.",
     "konfidenz": 0.86,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Note exhibit idea for later video",
       "verworfen_weil": "Capturing content ideas is lower priority than the immediate streaming violation."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Find exit / leave venue",
       "verworfen_weil": "They seem to want to stay; leaving is only a fallback if staff escalate."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [
      "End stream now",
      "Pause stream",
      "Switch to recording"
     ],
     "karte": true,
     "kategorie": "stream_ops",
     "titel": "Staff: no streaming here",
     "zeile": "Venue says recording only — end stream now?",
     "aktion": "Open stream controls to end or pause the live broadcast",
     "haltbar_s": 240,
     "grund": "The group is still live-streaming after being explicitly told streaming is not allowed, and that violation persists beyond card latency.",
     "verdict": "late",
     "late_by": 16,
     "need": "stream_ops",
     "need_start": 246
    },
    "openai/gpt-5.6-luna": {
     "lat": 9.6,
     "visible_at": 284.6,
     "cost": 0.00154155,
     "raw": "{\n  \"beobachtung\": \"\\\"You are warned not to be streaming\\\" [04:06], followed by \\\"I don't want to get recorded\\\" [04:13].\",\n  \"vorhersage\": \"The group will need to stop recording or move the camera away from this person when the card appears, likely until they leave or explicitly consent.\",\n  \"reasoning\": \"A person has directly objected to being recorded, so the concern is active and important. It will still exist after the 10–30 second card delay because recording continues unless someone changes it. Stopping capture is more appropriate than merely clarifying the streaming distinction, since the objection explicitly includes recording. Nothing earlier establishes consent from this person.\",\n  \"alternativen\": [\n    {\n      \"karte\": \"Ask for recording permission\",\n      \"verworfen_weil\": \"The person has already said they do not want to be recorded.\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"karte\": \"Move camera away\",\n      \"verworfen_weil\": \"It may not remove audio or incidental capture, and stopping recording is clearer.\"\n    }\n  ],\n  \"karte\": true,\n  \"kategorie\": \"stream_ops\",\n  \"titel\": \"Stop Recording Here\",\n  \"zeile\": \"A person said they do not want to be recorded.\",\n  \"aktion\": \"Stop recording immediately\",\n  \"optionen\": [\n    \"Stop recording\",\n    \"Turn camera away\",\n    \"Mute audio\"\n  ],\n  \"haltbar_s\": 600,\n  \"konfidenz\": 0.98,\n  \"risiko\": \"It could be unnecessary if the person leaves or the recording has already stopped before the card appears.\",\n  \"grund\": \"An explicit refusal to be recorded requires immediate capture control.\"\n}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "\"You are warned not to be streaming\" [04:06], followed by \"I don't want to get recorded\" [04:13].",
     "vorhersage": "The group will need to stop recording or move the camera away from this person when the card appears, likely until they leave or explicitly consent.",
     "reasoning": "A person has directly objected to being recorded, so the concern is active and important. It will still exist after the 10–30 second card delay because recording continues unless someone changes it. Stopping capture is more appropriate than merely clarifying the streaming distinction, since the objection explicitly includes recording. Nothing earlier establishes consent from this person.",
     "risiko": "It could be unnecessary if the person leaves or the recording has already stopped before the card appears.",
     "konfidenz": 0.98,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Ask for recording permission",
       "verworfen_weil": "The person has already said they do not want to be recorded."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Move camera away",
       "verworfen_weil": "It may not remove audio or incidental capture, and stopping recording is clearer."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [
      "Stop recording",
      "Turn camera away",
      "Mute audio"
     ],
     "karte": true,
     "kategorie": "stream_ops",
     "titel": "Stop Recording Here",
     "zeile": "A person said they do not want to be recorded.",
     "aktion": "Stop recording immediately",
     "haltbar_s": 600,
     "grund": "An explicit refusal to be recorded requires immediate capture control.",
     "verdict": "late",
     "late_by": 12,
     "need": "stream_ops",
     "need_start": 246
    },
    "google/gemini-3.8-flash": {
     "lat": 8.9,
     "visible_at": 283.9,
     "cost": 0.00572175,
     "raw": "{\"beobachtung\": \"[0:04:06] Speaker 1: 'You are warned not to be streaming. Oh. Oh, is it okay if we record though?' / [0:04:13] Unknown: 'No, I guess not. Where? Well, I don't want to get recorded.'\", \"reasoning\": \"The group is currently engaged in a direct, real-time verbal confrontation with a visitor or staff member regarding filming. This immediate social situation requires their full attention and will be resolved verbally long before any card is read. Showing a card on Marlon's screen right now would be distracting and useless while he is actively talking to someone.\", \"alternativen\": [{\"karte\": \"Show Museum of Sex photo/video policy\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"Staff and individuals have immediate discretion on site; reading policy snippets on a phone won't resolve an active confrontation.\"}, {\"karte\": \"Switch to BRB / camera down shortcut\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"Marlon is already speaking to the person and physically handling the camera; popping up a screen prompt gets in the way.\"}], \"karte\": false, \"grund\": \"Marlon is in an active verbal confrontation regarding filming that must be handled in person immediately.\"}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "[0:04:06] Speaker 1: 'You are warned not to be streaming. Oh. Oh, is it okay if we record though?' / [0:04:13] Unknown: 'No, I guess not. Where? Well, I don't want to get recorded.'",
     "vorhersage": "",
     "reasoning": "The group is currently engaged in a direct, real-time verbal confrontation with a visitor or staff member regarding filming. This immediate social situation requires their full attention and will be resolved verbally long before any card is read. Showing a card on Marlon's screen right now would be distracting and useless while he is actively talking to someone.",
     "risiko": "",
     "konfidenz": null,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Show Museum of Sex photo/video policy",
       "verworfen_weil": "Staff and individuals have immediate discretion on site; reading policy snippets on a phone won't resolve an active confrontation."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Switch to BRB / camera down shortcut",
       "verworfen_weil": "Marlon is already speaking to the person and physically handling the camera; popping up a screen prompt gets in the way."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [],
     "verdict": "silent",
     "karte": false,
     "grund": "Marlon is in an active verbal confrontation regarding filming that must be handled in person immediately."
    },
    "openai/gpt-5.6-sol": {
     "lat": 6.3,
     "visible_at": 281.3,
     "cost": 0.0088035,
     "raw": "{\"beobachtung\":\"[0:04:06] Speaker 1: “You are warned not to be streaming.” [0:04:13] Unknown: “Well, I don't want to get recorded.”\",\"reasoning\":\"This is an immediate consent and venue-policy issue, but the group is already discussing it with the person present. A card would appear roughly 25 to 45 seconds after the objection, by which time they should already have stopped filming or left the area. The needed action takes only seconds and cannot safely wait for the card latency. Nothing earlier in the stream indicates a lasting follow-up task or unresolved recording plan.\",\"alternativen\":[{\"karte\":\"Stop the livestream\",\"verworfen_weil\":\"It would arrive too late for an immediate privacy objection and may already be resolved.\"},{\"karte\":\"Respect no-recording area\",\"verworfen_weil\":\"A reminder adds no useful action while staff is directly addressing them.\"}],\"karte\":false,\"grund\":\"Stay silent because recording consent must be handled immediately, before any card could appear.\"}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "[0:04:06] Speaker 1: “You are warned not to be streaming.” [0:04:13] Unknown: “Well, I don't want to get recorded.”",
     "vorhersage": "",
     "reasoning": "This is an immediate consent and venue-policy issue, but the group is already discussing it with the person present. A card would appear roughly 25 to 45 seconds after the objection, by which time they should already have stopped filming or left the area. The needed action takes only seconds and cannot safely wait for the card latency. Nothing earlier in the stream indicates a lasting follow-up task or unresolved recording plan.",
     "risiko": "",
     "konfidenz": null,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Stop the livestream",
       "verworfen_weil": "It would arrive too late for an immediate privacy objection and may already be resolved."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Respect no-recording area",
       "verworfen_weil": "A reminder adds no useful action while staff is directly addressing them."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [],
     "verdict": "silent",
     "karte": false,
     "grund": "Stay silent because recording consent must be handled immediately, before any card could appear."
    },
    "moonshotai/kimi-k3": {
     "lat": 185.2,
     "visible_at": 460.2,
     "cost": 0.030087,
     "raw": "{\n \"beobachtung\": \"[0:04:06] Speaker 1: 'You are warned not to be streaming. Oh. Oh, is it okay if we record though?' [0:04:13] Unknown: 'No, I guess not. Where? Well, I don't want to get recorded.'\",\n \"vorhersage\": \"When the card appears (~04:40-05:00) the exchange with the staff member/visitor will likely be finished or winding down, but the live VOD already contains a person who explicitly refused being recorded; the need to flag that exact moment for later blurring/cutting persists for hours until it is noted.\",\n \"reasoning\": \"The consent refusal happened at 04:06-04:13, seconds before now, and the card lands 10-30s later, so assisting the live conversation itself would arrive too late and risks distracting Marlon during a delicate in-person moment. What lasts is the cleanup: the group claimed they are 'only recording' while actually streaming, and a bystander declined consent on camera, so the timestamp must be captured before it is forgotten among hours of footage. Earlier in the stream they were simply touring exhibits with no incidents, so this is the first moment in hour 4 worth marking. A silent one-tap note card does not interfere with however the staff interaction resolves and stays valid whether they move on or get approached again.\",\n \"alternativen\": [\n  {\"karte\": \"Look up venue filming/photography policy\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"Staff is physically present and giving the answer live; a web result supersedes nothing and I must not invent policy text.\"},\n  {\"karte\": \"Reminder that they are live despite saying 'just recording'\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"Preachy, not actionable in one tap, and pulls Marlon's attention during a sensitive conversation.\"},\n  {\"karte\": \"Stay silent entirely\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"The VOD-edit cleanup need is real and long-lived; losing the exact timestamp makes later blurring far harder.\"}\n ],\n \"karte\": true,\n \"kategorie\": \"followup\",\n \"titel\": \"Consent refused on camera\",\n \"zeile\": \"Visitor declined being recorded at ~04:13 — save timestamp for VOD blur or cut.\",\n \"aktion\": \"One tap saves the timestamp with a short note to the stream's edit list.\",\n \"optionen\": [\"Save timestamp + note\", \"Save timestamp only\", \"Dismiss\"],\n \"haltbar_s\": 3600,\n \"konfidenz\": 0.62,\n \"risiko\": \"Wrong if the visitor consented after further clarification or staff only objected to livestreaming; a phone glance during a tense staff exchange could also read as dismissive.\",\n \"grund\": \"A person explicitly refused being recorded on a live stream, so the timestamp must be captured now for later VOD editing before it is forgotten.\"\n}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "[0:04:06] Speaker 1: 'You are warned not to be streaming. Oh. Oh, is it okay if we record though?' [0:04:13] Unknown: 'No, I guess not. Where? Well, I don't want to get recorded.'",
     "vorhersage": "When the card appears (~04:40-05:00) the exchange with the staff member/visitor will likely be finished or winding down, but the live VOD already contains a person who explicitly refused being recorded; the need to flag that exact moment for later blurring/cutting persists for hours until it is noted.",
     "reasoning": "The consent refusal happened at 04:06-04:13, seconds before now, and the card lands 10-30s later, so assisting the live conversation itself would arrive too late and risks distracting Marlon during a delicate in-person moment. What lasts is the cleanup: the group claimed they are 'only recording' while actually streaming, and a bystander declined consent on camera, so the timestamp must be captured before it is forgotten among hours of footage. Earlier in the stream they were simply touring exhibits with no incidents, so this is the first moment in hour 4 worth marking. A silent one-tap note card does not interfere with however the staff interaction resolves and stays valid whether they move on or get approached again.",
     "risiko": "Wrong if the visitor consented after further clarification or staff only objected to livestreaming; a phone glance during a tense staff exchange could also read as dismissive.",
     "konfidenz": 0.62,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Look up venue filming/photography policy",
       "verworfen_weil": "Staff is physically present and giving the answer live; a web result supersedes nothing and I must not invent policy text."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Reminder that they are live despite saying 'just recording'",
       "verworfen_weil": "Preachy, not actionable in one tap, and pulls Marlon's attention during a sensitive conversation."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Stay silent entirely",
       "verworfen_weil": "The VOD-edit cleanup need is real and long-lived; losing the exact timestamp makes later blurring far harder."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [
      "Save timestamp + note",
      "Save timestamp only",
      "Dismiss"
     ],
     "karte": true,
     "kategorie": "followup",
     "titel": "Consent refused on camera",
     "zeile": "Visitor declined being recorded at ~04:13 — save timestamp for VOD blur or cut.",
     "aktion": "One tap saves the timestamp with a short note to the stream's edit list.",
     "haltbar_s": 3600,
     "grund": "A person explicitly refused being recorded on a live stream, so the timestamp must be captured now for later VOD editing before it is forgotten.",
     "verdict": "early",
     "early_by": 87,
     "need": "followup",
     "need_start": 547
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "t": 330,
   "signal": "aufnahme_sorge",
   "conf": 0.91,
   "seen_until": 315,
   "models": {
    "deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash": {
     "lat": 7.2,
     "visible_at": 342.2,
     "cost": 0.0006214,
     "raw": "{\n  \"beobachtung\": \"[0:04:06] \\\"You are warned not to be streaming.\\\" / [0:04:09] \\\"We just record, we're not streaming.\\\" / [0:04:21] \\\"Oh, there's no chat, there's no chat. I'm recording.\\\" / [0:04:33] \\\"If you you can reach out to our office.\\\"\",\n  \"vorhersage\": \"The group is walking out of a venue that objected to being filmed and told them to contact an office. The unresolved thread — what to do about the footage already captured and whether to follow up with the office — will still be open when the card appears, and for the rest of the walk and the next several minutes.\",\n  \"reasoning\": \"The pre-filter fired on 'aufnahme_sorge' and the transcript confirms a real recording concern: staff said they were warned not to stream, the group argued it was only recording, and were pointed to an office. This is not a 30-second task — it is an open question about footage and a possible follow-up contact, which is exactly the kind of long-lived item worth a card. The 15-second transcript lag means the group may already be a few steps away from the venue, so the card should be about the decision, not about the location. Earlier in the stream there is no prior note about this venue or its filming policy, so a fresh followup card is appropriate. A card now, while the exchange is still fresh, is more useful than later when they are distracted by the next stop.\",\n  \"alternativen\": [\n    {\n      \"karte\": \"Note the venue name and filming policy\",\n      \"verworfen_weil\": \"The transcript never gives a venue name or address, and inventing one would violate the no-invention rule.\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"karte\": \"Stop recording / switch to audio only\",\n      \"verworfen_weil\": \"This is a stream-ops action the group is already actively discussing; a card would duplicate a decision in progress.\"\n    }\n  ],\n  \"karte\": true,\n  \"kategorie\": \"followup\",\n  \"titel\": \"Recording concern follow-up\",\n  \"zeile\": \"Venue objected to filming; decide on footage and office contact\",\n  \"aktion\": \"Opens a note with the recording concern and a placeholder for the office contact\",\n  \"optionen\": [\n    \"Save note for later\",\n    \"Draft office contact\",\n    \"Mark as resolved\"\n  ],\n  \"haltbar_s\": 900,\n  \"konfidenz\": 0.72,\n  \"risiko\": \"If the group has already decided to ignore it or the venue was informal, the card could feel like nagging; also if they are already past the venue and no follow-up is wanted.\",\n  \"grund\": \"A real recording objection and a suggested office contact create an open follow-up that will outlast the walk.\"\n}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "[0:04:06] \"You are warned not to be streaming.\" / [0:04:09] \"We just record, we're not streaming.\" / [0:04:21] \"Oh, there's no chat, there's no chat. I'm recording.\" / [0:04:33] \"If you you can reach out to our office.\"",
     "vorhersage": "The group is walking out of a venue that objected to being filmed and told them to contact an office. The unresolved thread — what to do about the footage already captured and whether to follow up with the office — will still be open when the card appears, and for the rest of the walk and the next several minutes.",
     "reasoning": "The pre-filter fired on 'aufnahme_sorge' and the transcript confirms a real recording concern: staff said they were warned not to stream, the group argued it was only recording, and were pointed to an office. This is not a 30-second task — it is an open question about footage and a possible follow-up contact, which is exactly the kind of long-lived item worth a card. The 15-second transcript lag means the group may already be a few steps away from the venue, so the card should be about the decision, not about the location. Earlier in the stream there is no prior note about this venue or its filming policy, so a fresh followup card is appropriate. A card now, while the exchange is still fresh, is more useful than later when they are distracted by the next stop.",
     "risiko": "If the group has already decided to ignore it or the venue was informal, the card could feel like nagging; also if they are already past the venue and no follow-up is wanted.",
     "konfidenz": 0.72,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Note the venue name and filming policy",
       "verworfen_weil": "The transcript never gives a venue name or address, and inventing one would violate the no-invention rule."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Stop recording / switch to audio only",
       "verworfen_weil": "This is a stream-ops action the group is already actively discussing; a card would duplicate a decision in progress."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [
      "Save note for later",
      "Draft office contact",
      "Mark as resolved"
     ],
     "karte": true,
     "kategorie": "followup",
     "titel": "Recording concern follow-up",
     "zeile": "Venue objected to filming; decide on footage and office contact",
     "aktion": "Opens a note with the recording concern and a placeholder for the office contact",
     "haltbar_s": 900,
     "grund": "A real recording objection and a suggested office contact create an open follow-up that will outlast the walk.",
     "verdict": "false",
     "early_by": 205,
     "need": "followup",
     "need_start": 547
    },
    "z-ai/glm-5.3-flash": {
     "lat": 10.8,
     "visible_at": 345.8,
     "cost": 0.00050505,
     "raw": "{\n \"beobachtung\": \"[0:04:06] Speaker 1: \\\"You are warned not to be streaming\\\" — staff confronts the group about recording; [0:04:33] \\\"We'll be on our way\\\" — they comply and leave.\",\n \"reasoning\": \"The recording concern was raised and fully resolved within the transcript: the group acknowledged the rule, confirmed they were only recording, and exited the venue by [0:04:33]. Given the 15-second transcript lag plus 10-30 second card latency, any card would appear around 05:40-05:45, well after the situation ended. The pre-filter likely fired on the confrontation keywords, but the need no longer exists. Nothing in the transcript suggests an ongoing or recurring recording issue.\",\n \"alternativen\": [\n  {\"karte\": \"Note venue no-stream policy for future stops\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"One-off encounter, already handled; no indication more restricted venues are planned.\"},\n  {\"karte\": \"Find next location to visit\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"No transcript evidence the group is looking for a next stop or asked for directions.\"}\n ],\n \"karte\": false,\n \"grund\": \"The recording conflict was resolved and the group already left the venue, so no card need exists by the time a card would become visible.\"\n}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "[0:04:06] Speaker 1: \"You are warned not to be streaming\" — staff confronts the group about recording; [0:04:33] \"We'll be on our way\" — they comply and leave.",
     "vorhersage": "",
     "reasoning": "The recording concern was raised and fully resolved within the transcript: the group acknowledged the rule, confirmed they were only recording, and exited the venue by [0:04:33]. Given the 15-second transcript lag plus 10-30 second card latency, any card would appear around 05:40-05:45, well after the situation ended. The pre-filter likely fired on the confrontation keywords, but the need no longer exists. Nothing in the transcript suggests an ongoing or recurring recording issue.",
     "risiko": "",
     "konfidenz": null,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Note venue no-stream policy for future stops",
       "verworfen_weil": "One-off encounter, already handled; no indication more restricted venues are planned."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Find next location to visit",
       "verworfen_weil": "No transcript evidence the group is looking for a next stop or asked for directions."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [],
     "verdict": "silent",
     "karte": false,
     "grund": "The recording conflict was resolved and the group already left the venue, so no card need exists by the time a card would become visible."
    },
    "openai/gpt-5.6-luna": {
     "lat": 11.3,
     "visible_at": 346.3,
     "cost": 0.00194765,
     "raw": "{\n  \"beobachtung\": \"At 04:13, a person said, \\\"I don't want to get recorded,\\\" and at 04:21 Marlon replied, \\\"You're gonna have to get recorded.\\\"\",\n  \"vorhersage\": \"When visible, the group will still need to flag this venue segment for privacy review before publishing, likely until the footage is edited or deleted.\",\n  \"reasoning\": \"The disagreement creates a concrete recording-privacy risk even though they have already left the area. This is worth surfacing now because reviewing, blurring, muting, or deleting footage is durable cleanup work, unlike the brief conversation itself. The 10–30 second latency does not prevent a useful marker because the recent segment remains identifiable for editing. Earlier audio confirms staff objected to being recorded and the group said they were leaving.\",\n  \"alternativen\": [\n    {\n      \"karte\": \"Ask for venue permission\",\n      \"verworfen_weil\": \"They had already been told to leave, so this would be too late and intrusive.\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"karte\": \"Consent reminder\",\n      \"verworfen_weil\": \"The immediate interaction is over; a persistent footage-review task is more actionable.\"\n    }\n  ],\n  \"karte\": true,\n  \"kategorie\": \"stream_ops\",\n  \"titel\": \"Review venue footage\",\n  \"zeile\": \"Privacy concern detected in the recent segment\",\n  \"aktion\": \"Flag the recent venue segment for privacy review\",\n  \"optionen\": [\n    \"Blur faces\",\n    \"Mute staff audio\",\n    \"Delete segment\"\n  ],\n  \"haltbar_s\": 86400,\n  \"konfidenz\": 0.95,\n  \"risiko\": \"This may be unnecessary if the venue later granted permission or no person is identifiable in the footage.\",\n  \"grund\": \"A person explicitly objected to being recorded, so the segment should be reviewed before publication.\"\n}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "At 04:13, a person said, \"I don't want to get recorded,\" and at 04:21 Marlon replied, \"You're gonna have to get recorded.\"",
     "vorhersage": "When visible, the group will still need to flag this venue segment for privacy review before publishing, likely until the footage is edited or deleted.",
     "reasoning": "The disagreement creates a concrete recording-privacy risk even though they have already left the area. This is worth surfacing now because reviewing, blurring, muting, or deleting footage is durable cleanup work, unlike the brief conversation itself. The 10–30 second latency does not prevent a useful marker because the recent segment remains identifiable for editing. Earlier audio confirms staff objected to being recorded and the group said they were leaving.",
     "risiko": "This may be unnecessary if the venue later granted permission or no person is identifiable in the footage.",
     "konfidenz": 0.95,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Ask for venue permission",
       "verworfen_weil": "They had already been told to leave, so this would be too late and intrusive."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Consent reminder",
       "verworfen_weil": "The immediate interaction is over; a persistent footage-review task is more actionable."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [
      "Blur faces",
      "Mute staff audio",
      "Delete segment"
     ],
     "karte": true,
     "kategorie": "stream_ops",
     "titel": "Review venue footage",
     "zeile": "Privacy concern detected in the recent segment",
     "aktion": "Flag the recent venue segment for privacy review",
     "haltbar_s": 86400,
     "grund": "A person explicitly objected to being recorded, so the segment should be reviewed before publication.",
     "verdict": "late",
     "late_by": 73,
     "need": "stream_ops",
     "need_start": 246
    },
    "google/gemini-3.8-flash": {
     "lat": 5.5,
     "visible_at": 340.5,
     "cost": 0.00423375,
     "raw": "{\"beobachtung\": \"Staff warned them at [0:04:06] 'You are warned not to be streaming', group responded at [0:04:33] 'We'll be on our way', and by [0:05:00]-[0:05:15] they are already leaving and debriefing.\", \"reasoning\": \"The recording issue triggered the pre-filter, but the situation was completely resolved in conversation by 04:35. The streamers acknowledged the venue's rules, complied immediately, and are already outside or exiting while casually chatting. Showing a card about recording permissions, privacy laws, or contacting the museum office now would be obsolete and intrusive.\", \"alternativen\": [{\"karte\": \"Contact Museum of Sex office for filming permit\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"They chose to leave rather than pursue a formal filming permit, and the incident is already over.\"}], \"karte\": false, \"grund\": \"The venue staff interaction resolved immediately and the group is already leaving without any further assistance needed.\"}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "Staff warned them at [0:04:06] 'You are warned not to be streaming', group responded at [0:04:33] 'We'll be on our way', and by [0:05:00]-[0:05:15] they are already leaving and debriefing.",
     "vorhersage": "",
     "reasoning": "The recording issue triggered the pre-filter, but the situation was completely resolved in conversation by 04:35. The streamers acknowledged the venue's rules, complied immediately, and are already outside or exiting while casually chatting. Showing a card about recording permissions, privacy laws, or contacting the museum office now would be obsolete and intrusive.",
     "risiko": "",
     "konfidenz": null,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Contact Museum of Sex office for filming permit",
       "verworfen_weil": "They chose to leave rather than pursue a formal filming permit, and the incident is already over."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [],
     "verdict": "silent",
     "karte": false,
     "grund": "The venue staff interaction resolved immediately and the group is already leaving without any further assistance needed."
    },
    "openai/gpt-5.6-sol": {
     "lat": 6.0,
     "visible_at": 341.0,
     "cost": 0.0093785,
     "raw": "{\"beobachtung\":\"[0:04:06–0:04:33] “You are warned not to be streaming… I don't want to get recorded… Okay. We'll be on our way.”\",\"reasoning\":\"The venue raised a recording and privacy concern, but the group acknowledged it and immediately agreed to leave. By the time a card appears, they will likely already be outside, so a stop-recording reminder would arrive too late. Nothing earlier indicates they planned to seek filming permission or return later. A card now would risk resurfacing an issue they have already resolved.\",\"alternativen\":[{\"karte\":\"Stop recording and leave\",\"verworfen_weil\":\"They already agreed to leave, and this action should finish before the card appears.\"},{\"karte\":\"Contact venue office\",\"verworfen_weil\":\"The office was mentioned only as an option, not as a requested or announced follow-up.\"}],\"karte\":false,\"grund\":\"The recording concern was acknowledged and resolved before a delayed card could help.\"}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "[0:04:06–0:04:33] “You are warned not to be streaming… I don't want to get recorded… Okay. We'll be on our way.”",
     "vorhersage": "",
     "reasoning": "The venue raised a recording and privacy concern, but the group acknowledged it and immediately agreed to leave. By the time a card appears, they will likely already be outside, so a stop-recording reminder would arrive too late. Nothing earlier indicates they planned to seek filming permission or return later. A card now would risk resurfacing an issue they have already resolved.",
     "risiko": "",
     "konfidenz": null,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Stop recording and leave",
       "verworfen_weil": "They already agreed to leave, and this action should finish before the card appears."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Contact venue office",
       "verworfen_weil": "The office was mentioned only as an option, not as a requested or announced follow-up."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [],
     "verdict": "silent",
     "karte": false,
     "grund": "The recording concern was acknowledged and resolved before a delayed card could help."
    },
    "moonshotai/kimi-k3": {
     "lat": 33.9,
     "visible_at": 368.9,
     "cost": 0.0147945,
     "raw": "{\"beobachtung\": \"[0:04:06] Unknown: 'You are warned not to be streaming' ... [0:04:33] Speaker 1: 'Ah, okay. Okay. Okay. We'll be on our way.'\", \"reasoning\": \"The pre-filter fired on the recording dispute with venue staff, but that interaction was already resolved by the group themselves around 04:33 when they agreed to leave. By the time a card would render (05:40-06:00), they are walking out and casually debriefing ('that was fascinating'), so the concern no longer exists. No contact details for the venue's office were given, nobody announced a follow-up, a return visit, or a next destination, so there is no lasting task to support. A card about a finished staff interaction would be stale noise on screen during their exit. Earlier in the stream there is no prior mention of filming permits or plans that this could connect to.\", \"alternativen\": [{\"karte\": \"Followup: save venue content-office contact for filming permission\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"No contact info was provided on stream and nobody expressed intent to return or request permission\"}, {\"karte\": \"Transport/next-place card for after they leave\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"No destination or plan was announced; they are still wrapping up inside\"}, {\"karte\": \"Stream_ops note about recording vs streaming status\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"They already handled the staff verbally; nothing actionable remains for a silent card\"}], \"karte\": false, \"grund\": \"The recording concern was resolved by the group a minute ago and no lasting need exists when the card would appear.\"}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "[0:04:06] Unknown: 'You are warned not to be streaming' ... [0:04:33] Speaker 1: 'Ah, okay. Okay. Okay. We'll be on our way.'",
     "vorhersage": "",
     "reasoning": "The pre-filter fired on the recording dispute with venue staff, but that interaction was already resolved by the group themselves around 04:33 when they agreed to leave. By the time a card would render (05:40-06:00), they are walking out and casually debriefing ('that was fascinating'), so the concern no longer exists. No contact details for the venue's office were given, nobody announced a follow-up, a return visit, or a next destination, so there is no lasting task to support. A card about a finished staff interaction would be stale noise on screen during their exit. Earlier in the stream there is no prior mention of filming permits or plans that this could connect to.",
     "risiko": "",
     "konfidenz": null,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Followup: save venue content-office contact for filming permission",
       "verworfen_weil": "No contact info was provided on stream and nobody expressed intent to return or request permission"
      },
      {
       "karte": "Transport/next-place card for after they leave",
       "verworfen_weil": "No destination or plan was announced; they are still wrapping up inside"
      },
      {
       "karte": "Stream_ops note about recording vs streaming status",
       "verworfen_weil": "They already handled the staff verbally; nothing actionable remains for a silent card"
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [],
     "verdict": "silent",
     "karte": false,
     "grund": "The recording concern was resolved by the group a minute ago and no lasting need exists when the card would appear."
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "t": 390,
   "signal": "aufbruch",
   "conf": 0.83,
   "seen_until": 375,
   "models": {
    "deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash": {
     "lat": 2.8,
     "visible_at": 397.8,
     "cost": 0.001791,
     "raw": "{\n  \"beobachtung\": \"[0:05:41] \\\"Help Lacey? What happened? Who the fuck Lacey? Who the fuck is our cameraman? Where's YBG? Where the fuck are they at? Refund? What happened?\\\" and [0:06:03] Marlon: \\\"Let me check your stream. Let's see what Lacey could possibly need help with.\\\"\",\n  \"vorhersage\": \"The group is leaving a museum/gift-shop space and has lost track of Lacy and the cameraman YBG; they will need to locate or re-establish contact with them for at least the next few minutes while they regroup on the first floor.\",\n  \"reasoning\": \"The pre-filter signal 'aufbruch' matches the group departing the exhibit ('we made it to the first floor', 'we'll be on our way'), but the more actionable need is that Lacy and the cameraman are unaccounted for. Marlon is already checking Lacy's stream, which is a short action, but locating a missing person and cameraman is not a sub-30-second task. A card that surfaces Lacy's live location or a quick ping would still be useful when it becomes visible 10-30 seconds from now. Earlier in the stream the group was together inside the exhibit, so this separation is new and unresolved.\",\n  \"alternativen\": [\n    {\n      \"karte\": \"Note the museum/exhibit as a content idea\",\n      \"verworfen_weil\": \"The group already finished the visit and is leaving; capturing the idea is not urgent and Marlon is focused on finding Lacy.\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"karte\": \"Book a ride to the next stop\",\n      \"verworfen_weil\": \"No destination has been announced yet, so there is nothing concrete to book.\"\n    }\n  ],\n  \"karte\": true,\n  \"kategorie\": \"followup\",\n  \"titel\": \"Locate Lacy and cameraman\",\n  \"zeile\": \"Lacy and YBG missing after exit — ping or share location?\",\n  \"aktion\": \"Opens a quick ping/location share to Lacy and YBG\",\n  \"optionen\": [\"Ping Lacy\", \"Ping YBG\", \"Share my location\"],\n  \"haltbar_s\": 180,\n  \"konfidenz\": 0.62,\n  \"risiko\": \"If Lacy and YBG reappear within seconds or Marlon already resolves it by checking the stream, the card is redundant and clutters the phone.\",\n  \"grund\": \"The group just exited and cannot find Lacy or the cameraman, a live coordination need that will outlast the card latency.\"\n}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "[0:05:41] \"Help Lacey? What happened? Who the fuck Lacey? Who the fuck is our cameraman? Where's YBG? Where the fuck are they at? Refund? What happened?\" and [0:06:03] Marlon: \"Let me check your stream. Let's see what Lacey could possibly need help with.\"",
     "vorhersage": "The group is leaving a museum/gift-shop space and has lost track of Lacy and the cameraman YBG; they will need to locate or re-establish contact with them for at least the next few minutes while they regroup on the first floor.",
     "reasoning": "The pre-filter signal 'aufbruch' matches the group departing the exhibit ('we made it to the first floor', 'we'll be on our way'), but the more actionable need is that Lacy and the cameraman are unaccounted for. Marlon is already checking Lacy's stream, which is a short action, but locating a missing person and cameraman is not a sub-30-second task. A card that surfaces Lacy's live location or a quick ping would still be useful when it becomes visible 10-30 seconds from now. Earlier in the stream the group was together inside the exhibit, so this separation is new and unresolved.",
     "risiko": "If Lacy and YBG reappear within seconds or Marlon already resolves it by checking the stream, the card is redundant and clutters the phone.",
     "konfidenz": 0.62,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Note the museum/exhibit as a content idea",
       "verworfen_weil": "The group already finished the visit and is leaving; capturing the idea is not urgent and Marlon is focused on finding Lacy."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Book a ride to the next stop",
       "verworfen_weil": "No destination has been announced yet, so there is nothing concrete to book."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [
      "Ping Lacy",
      "Ping YBG",
      "Share my location"
     ],
     "karte": true,
     "kategorie": "followup",
     "titel": "Locate Lacy and cameraman",
     "zeile": "Lacy and YBG missing after exit — ping or share location?",
     "aktion": "Opens a quick ping/location share to Lacy and YBG",
     "haltbar_s": 180,
     "grund": "The group just exited and cannot find Lacy or the cameraman, a live coordination need that will outlast the card latency.",
     "verdict": "early",
     "early_by": 149,
     "need": "followup",
     "need_start": 547
    },
    "z-ai/glm-5.3-flash": {
     "lat": 2.4,
     "visible_at": 397.4,
     "cost": 0.00054,
     "raw": "{\n \"beobachtung\": \"[0:04:33] Speaker 1: 'We'll be on our way' and [0:05:41] 'Where's YBG? Where the fuck are they at?' — group exits the venue and looks for their cameraman.\",\n \"reasoning\": \"The group has just left the museum and is regrouping on the street, but no destination, transport mode or booking need has been voiced yet. 'Aufbruch' fired because they are moving, but a departure card only helps if there is a known next stop, which there isn't. The missing cameraman (YBG) is being resolved live by Marlon checking the stream, a sub-30-second action. By the time a card appears (10-30s after 06:30), they will likely still be walking, but with nothing concrete to show, any card would be noise.\",\n \"alternativen\": [{\"karte\": \"Next stop suggestion / route card\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"No destination was mentioned; inventing one would violate the no-invention rule.\"}, {\"karte\": \"Find YBG / locate cameraman\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"Marlon is already checking the stream himself; resolves in seconds, not card-worthy.\"}],\n \"karte\": false,\n \"grund\": \"They just left the venue with no stated next destination and the only open thread (finding YBG) is being handled live in seconds.\"\n}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "[0:04:33] Speaker 1: 'We'll be on our way' and [0:05:41] 'Where's YBG? Where the fuck are they at?' — group exits the venue and looks for their cameraman.",
     "vorhersage": "",
     "reasoning": "The group has just left the museum and is regrouping on the street, but no destination, transport mode or booking need has been voiced yet. 'Aufbruch' fired because they are moving, but a departure card only helps if there is a known next stop, which there isn't. The missing cameraman (YBG) is being resolved live by Marlon checking the stream, a sub-30-second action. By the time a card appears (10-30s after 06:30), they will likely still be walking, but with nothing concrete to show, any card would be noise.",
     "risiko": "",
     "konfidenz": null,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Next stop suggestion / route card",
       "verworfen_weil": "No destination was mentioned; inventing one would violate the no-invention rule."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Find YBG / locate cameraman",
       "verworfen_weil": "Marlon is already checking the stream himself; resolves in seconds, not card-worthy."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [],
     "verdict": "silent",
     "karte": false,
     "grund": "They just left the venue with no stated next destination and the only open thread (finding YBG) is being handled live in seconds."
    },
    "openai/gpt-5.6-luna": {
     "lat": 6.8,
     "visible_at": 401.8,
     "cost": 0.0014877,
     "raw": "{\n  \"beobachtung\": \"\\\"We'll be on our way\\\" (04:33); \\\"Who the fuck is our cameraman? Where's YBG?\\\" (05:41)\",\n  \"vorhersage\": \"They will need to stop recording and regroup with Lacey and the cameraman while leaving, likely for at least a minute.\",\n  \"reasoning\": \"The venue explicitly objected to recording, and the group agreed to leave, so confirming capture is stopped remains relevant. Their later confusion about Lacey and the cameraman suggests regrouping is still unresolved. The 15-second transcript lag plus card delay may place visibility during their exit, when a concise checklist is useful. Earlier context confirms this is a recording-policy issue rather than a planned sightseeing stop.\",\n  \"alternativen\": [\n    {\n      \"karte\": \"Venue recording policy\",\n      \"verworfen_weil\": \"They already acknowledged the policy and agreed to leave.\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"karte\": \"Find Lacey\",\n      \"verworfen_weil\": \"The need may resolve quickly, while the broader exit coordination lasts longer.\"\n    }\n  ],\n  \"karte\": true,\n  \"kategorie\": \"stream_ops\",\n  \"titel\": \"Exit and regroup\",\n  \"zeile\": \"Stop capture, then reunite with Lacey and the cameraman.\",\n  \"aktion\": \"Opens a quick exit checklist\",\n  \"optionen\": [\n    \"Stop recording\",\n    \"Find Lacey\",\n    \"Find cameraman\"\n  ],\n  \"haltbar_s\": 90,\n  \"konfidenz\": 0.87,\n  \"risiko\": \"Annoying if recording is already stopped and everyone has already regrouped.\",\n  \"grund\": \"The venue rejected recording and the group appears to be leaving while still unsure where key people are.\"\n}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "\"We'll be on our way\" (04:33); \"Who the fuck is our cameraman? Where's YBG?\" (05:41)",
     "vorhersage": "They will need to stop recording and regroup with Lacey and the cameraman while leaving, likely for at least a minute.",
     "reasoning": "The venue explicitly objected to recording, and the group agreed to leave, so confirming capture is stopped remains relevant. Their later confusion about Lacey and the cameraman suggests regrouping is still unresolved. The 15-second transcript lag plus card delay may place visibility during their exit, when a concise checklist is useful. Earlier context confirms this is a recording-policy issue rather than a planned sightseeing stop.",
     "risiko": "Annoying if recording is already stopped and everyone has already regrouped.",
     "konfidenz": 0.87,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Venue recording policy",
       "verworfen_weil": "They already acknowledged the policy and agreed to leave."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Find Lacey",
       "verworfen_weil": "The need may resolve quickly, while the broader exit coordination lasts longer."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [
      "Stop recording",
      "Find Lacey",
      "Find cameraman"
     ],
     "karte": true,
     "kategorie": "stream_ops",
     "titel": "Exit and regroup",
     "zeile": "Stop capture, then reunite with Lacey and the cameraman.",
     "aktion": "Opens a quick exit checklist",
     "haltbar_s": 90,
     "grund": "The venue rejected recording and the group appears to be leaving while still unsure where key people are.",
     "verdict": "late",
     "late_by": 129,
     "need": "stream_ops",
     "need_start": 246
    },
    "google/gemini-3.8-flash": {
     "lat": 6.6,
     "visible_at": 401.6,
     "cost": 0.00479625,
     "raw": "{\"beobachtung\": \"[0:06:03] Marlon: 'Check your... let me... I'm gonna check your stream. Let me check your stream. Okay. Let's see what Lacey could possibly need help with.'\", \"reasoning\": \"The group was just asked to stop filming and has reached the first floor exit. Chat is alerting them that Lacy needs help, and Marlon is actively checking the stream on his phone right now to find out what happened. There is no specific destination announced yet, and no concrete external info or location for Lacy to provide without hallucinating. Intervening while Marlon is already handling his phone would be intrusive.\", \"alternativen\": [{\"karte\": \"Location or status of Lacy\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"No location or status data available in context; inventing it violates rules.\"}, {\"karte\": \"Directions to next stream destination\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"No next location has been decided or announced yet.\"}], \"karte\": false, \"grund\": \"Marlon is actively checking Lacy's stream on his phone and no next destination has been set.\"}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "[0:06:03] Marlon: 'Check your... let me... I'm gonna check your stream. Let me check your stream. Okay. Let's see what Lacey could possibly need help with.'",
     "vorhersage": "",
     "reasoning": "The group was just asked to stop filming and has reached the first floor exit. Chat is alerting them that Lacy needs help, and Marlon is actively checking the stream on his phone right now to find out what happened. There is no specific destination announced yet, and no concrete external info or location for Lacy to provide without hallucinating. Intervening while Marlon is already handling his phone would be intrusive.",
     "risiko": "",
     "konfidenz": null,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Location or status of Lacy",
       "verworfen_weil": "No location or status data available in context; inventing it violates rules."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Directions to next stream destination",
       "verworfen_weil": "No next location has been decided or announced yet."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [],
     "verdict": "silent",
     "karte": false,
     "grund": "Marlon is actively checking Lacy's stream on his phone and no next destination has been set."
    },
    "openai/gpt-5.6-sol": {
     "lat": 6.6,
     "visible_at": 401.6,
     "cost": 0.009451,
     "raw": "{\"beobachtung\":\"[0:06:03] Marlon: “I'm gonna check your stream. Let's see what Lacey could possibly need help with.”\",\"reasoning\":\"Marlon is already taking the fastest available action by opening Lacy’s stream. The issue will likely be understood or resolved before a card could appear 10–30 seconds from now. Although the group is leaving the venue, the transcript contains no unresolved destination or transport request. Earlier discussion about contacting the venue’s office was informational, not a stated plan.\",\"alternativen\":[{\"karte\":\"Find Lacy and Jason\",\"verworfen_weil\":\"Their location may become obvious from Lacy’s stream within seconds, making the card stale.\"},{\"karte\":\"Contact venue office\",\"verworfen_weil\":\"Nobody asked to pursue recording permission or save it as a follow-up.\"}],\"karte\":false,\"grund\":\"The only current need is actively being handled and is too short-lived for a card.\"}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "[0:06:03] Marlon: “I'm gonna check your stream. Let's see what Lacey could possibly need help with.”",
     "vorhersage": "",
     "reasoning": "Marlon is already taking the fastest available action by opening Lacy’s stream. The issue will likely be understood or resolved before a card could appear 10–30 seconds from now. Although the group is leaving the venue, the transcript contains no unresolved destination or transport request. Earlier discussion about contacting the venue’s office was informational, not a stated plan.",
     "risiko": "",
     "konfidenz": null,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Find Lacy and Jason",
       "verworfen_weil": "Their location may become obvious from Lacy’s stream within seconds, making the card stale."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Contact venue office",
       "verworfen_weil": "Nobody asked to pursue recording permission or save it as a follow-up."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [],
     "verdict": "silent",
     "karte": false,
     "grund": "The only current need is actively being handled and is too short-lived for a card."
    },
    "moonshotai/kimi-k3": {
     "lat": 95.2,
     "visible_at": 490.2,
     "cost": 0.0287085,
     "raw": "{\"beobachtung\": \"[0:05:41] 'Help Lacey? What happened? ... Who the fuck is our cameraman? Where's YBG? Where the fuck are they at?' followed by [0:06:03] Marlon: 'I'm gonna check your stream... Let's see what Lacey could possibly need help with. Okay. Oh, nice.'\", \"reasoning\": \"The 'aufbruch' signal almost certainly fired on 'We'll be on our way' (04:33), but the group has already left the venue - first floor at 05:34, outside by 05:41 - so any departure or transport card would arrive stale at 06:40-07:00. The only live thread is chat spamming 'Help Lacy', which Marlon is resolving himself right now by pulling up Lacey's stream, a sub-30-second action that already appears to end well ('Oh, nice'). Chat lines like 'Help Lacey' and 'Refund' are audience messages, not requests to me. No next destination, booking, or plan has been announced, so any suggestion card would have to invent content.\", \"alternativen\": [{\"karte\": \"Regroup: locate Lacy / cameraman YBG\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"Marlon is checking Lacey's stream himself and it resolves in seconds ('Oh, nice'); any location or contact detail would be invented\"}, {\"karte\": \"Next stop after museum exit\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"They already exited and no destination or preference was announced, so options would be fabricated\"}], \"karte\": false, \"grund\": \"The departure the pre-filter caught already happened, and the only open question (Lacy) is being resolved by Marlon himself within seconds, so no durable need exists when a card would appear.\"}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "[0:05:41] 'Help Lacey? What happened? ... Who the fuck is our cameraman? Where's YBG? Where the fuck are they at?' followed by [0:06:03] Marlon: 'I'm gonna check your stream... Let's see what Lacey could possibly need help with. Okay. Oh, nice.'",
     "vorhersage": "",
     "reasoning": "The 'aufbruch' signal almost certainly fired on 'We'll be on our way' (04:33), but the group has already left the venue - first floor at 05:34, outside by 05:41 - so any departure or transport card would arrive stale at 06:40-07:00. The only live thread is chat spamming 'Help Lacy', which Marlon is resolving himself right now by pulling up Lacey's stream, a sub-30-second action that already appears to end well ('Oh, nice'). Chat lines like 'Help Lacey' and 'Refund' are audience messages, not requests to me. No next destination, booking, or plan has been announced, so any suggestion card would have to invent content.",
     "risiko": "",
     "konfidenz": null,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Regroup: locate Lacy / cameraman YBG",
       "verworfen_weil": "Marlon is checking Lacey's stream himself and it resolves in seconds ('Oh, nice'); any location or contact detail would be invented"
      },
      {
       "karte": "Next stop after museum exit",
       "verworfen_weil": "They already exited and no destination or preference was announced, so options would be fabricated"
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [],
     "verdict": "silent",
     "karte": false,
     "grund": "The departure the pre-filter caught already happened, and the only open question (Lacy) is being resolved by Marlon himself within seconds, so no durable need exists when a card would appear."
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "t": 450,
   "signal": "aufbruch",
   "conf": 0.78,
   "seen_until": 435,
   "models": {
    "deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash": {
     "lat": 10.8,
     "visible_at": 465.8,
     "cost": 0.00062985,
     "raw": "{\n  \"beobachtung\": \"[0:06:26] Marlon: \\\"Oh we gotta move out right now.\\\" and [0:06:56] \\\"Alright, we gotta go, we gotta go boys.\\\"\",\n  \"vorhersage\": \"The group is leaving the museum and needs to regroup with Lacy and the cameraman (YBG), who are separated; this coordination need will persist for at least several minutes while they navigate and meet up.\",\n  \"reasoning\": \"The pre-filter 'aufbruch' fired correctly: Marlon explicitly says they have to move out right now and repeats 'we gotta go' at 0:06:56. Earlier at 0:05:41 chat asked 'Help Lacey?' and 'Where's YBG?', and Marlon checked Lacy's stream at 0:06:03, confirming the group is split. The transcript lags 15 seconds, so by the time a card appears they will be mid-move and still needing to locate Lacy and the cameraman. This is a coordination need lasting minutes, not a sub-30-second task, so a card is warranted.\",\n  \"alternativen\": [\n    {\"karte\": \"Note the museum as a content idea\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"They already finished the museum visit and are leaving; capturing it now is low value and they are mid-move.\"},\n    {\"karte\": \"Book a ride to next stop\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"No destination is stated yet; inventing one would violate the no-invention rule.\"}\n  ],\n  \"karte\": true,\n  \"kategorie\": \"followup\",\n  \"titel\": \"Regroup with Lacy and YBG\",\n  \"zeile\": \"Find Lacy and cameraman before next stop\",\n  \"aktion\": \"Opens a map pin or message thread to coordinate the meetup\",\n  \"optionen\": [\"Share my live location\", \"Message Lacy\", \"Message YBG\"],\n  \"haltbar_s\": 300,\n  \"konfidenz\": 0.72,\n  \"risiko\": \"If Lacy and YBG rejoin within seconds or Marlon already knows exactly where they are, the card is redundant and clutters the screen.\",\n  \"grund\": \"The group is splitting up and moving out, so a quick coordination card helps them regroup before the next segment.\"\n}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "[0:06:26] Marlon: \"Oh we gotta move out right now.\" and [0:06:56] \"Alright, we gotta go, we gotta go boys.\"",
     "vorhersage": "The group is leaving the museum and needs to regroup with Lacy and the cameraman (YBG), who are separated; this coordination need will persist for at least several minutes while they navigate and meet up.",
     "reasoning": "The pre-filter 'aufbruch' fired correctly: Marlon explicitly says they have to move out right now and repeats 'we gotta go' at 0:06:56. Earlier at 0:05:41 chat asked 'Help Lacey?' and 'Where's YBG?', and Marlon checked Lacy's stream at 0:06:03, confirming the group is split. The transcript lags 15 seconds, so by the time a card appears they will be mid-move and still needing to locate Lacy and the cameraman. This is a coordination need lasting minutes, not a sub-30-second task, so a card is warranted.",
     "risiko": "If Lacy and YBG rejoin within seconds or Marlon already knows exactly where they are, the card is redundant and clutters the screen.",
     "konfidenz": 0.72,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Note the museum as a content idea",
       "verworfen_weil": "They already finished the museum visit and are leaving; capturing it now is low value and they are mid-move."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Book a ride to next stop",
       "verworfen_weil": "No destination is stated yet; inventing one would violate the no-invention rule."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [
      "Share my live location",
      "Message Lacy",
      "Message YBG"
     ],
     "karte": true,
     "kategorie": "followup",
     "titel": "Regroup with Lacy and YBG",
     "zeile": "Find Lacy and cameraman before next stop",
     "aktion": "Opens a map pin or message thread to coordinate the meetup",
     "haltbar_s": 300,
     "grund": "The group is splitting up and moving out, so a quick coordination card helps them regroup before the next segment.",
     "verdict": "early",
     "early_by": 81,
     "need": "followup",
     "need_start": 547
    },
    "z-ai/glm-5.3-flash": {
     "lat": 15.9,
     "visible_at": 470.9,
     "cost": 0.0007188,
     "raw": "{\n \"beobachtung\": \"[0:06:26] Marlon: \\\"Oh we gotta move out right now\\\"; [0:06:31] \\\"do you know where he's at? ... It's just straight that way\\\"; [0:07:01] \\\"Yo, where you at, where you at?\\\"\",\n \"vorhersage\": \"Group is hurrying out of the museum to meet someone (Jay Lee / cameraman) whose exact location is unclear; a navigation card to the meeting point stays useful for a few minutes while they walk.\",\n \"reasoning\": \"The aufbruch signal fits: they were told to leave the venue and are now rushing to rendezvous with someone. Marlon twice asks where the person is, so a map card with the meeting point is genuinely useful when it appears 10-30s from now, as they will still be walking and orienting. I must not invent an address, so the card uses a placeholder and offers to open navigation. Earlier stream context shows they rely on Marlon checking streams/locations, so a quick locate-assist fits their workflow.\",\n \"alternativen\": [{\"karte\": \"Note museum visit for recap\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"Capturing the museum bit is a nice-to-have idea, not an active need during a rushed departure\"}, {\"karte\": \"Remind: no streaming inside\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"They already left the venue; the rule no longer applies\"}],\n \"karte\": true,\n \"kategorie\": \"transport\",\n \"titel\": \"Navigate to meetup point\",\n \"zeile\": \"Find where Jay Lee is waiting\",\n \"aktion\": \"Opens maps with a pin at [meeting point] and starts walking directions\",\n \"optionen\": [\"Open walking directions\", \"Share pin with Lacy and Jason\", \"Message Jay Lee for location\"],\n \"haltbar_s\": 240,\n \"konfidenz\": 0.6,\n \"risiko\": \"Wrong if they already know the way or the meetup is cancelled; a map ping during a fast-moving crowd moment could be ignored or annoying.\",\n \"grund\": \"They are actively departing to find someone whose location is uncertain, so a navigation card will still be relevant when it appears.\"\n}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "[0:06:26] Marlon: \"Oh we gotta move out right now\"; [0:06:31] \"do you know where he's at? ... It's just straight that way\"; [0:07:01] \"Yo, where you at, where you at?\"",
     "vorhersage": "Group is hurrying out of the museum to meet someone (Jay Lee / cameraman) whose exact location is unclear; a navigation card to the meeting point stays useful for a few minutes while they walk.",
     "reasoning": "The aufbruch signal fits: they were told to leave the venue and are now rushing to rendezvous with someone. Marlon twice asks where the person is, so a map card with the meeting point is genuinely useful when it appears 10-30s from now, as they will still be walking and orienting. I must not invent an address, so the card uses a placeholder and offers to open navigation. Earlier stream context shows they rely on Marlon checking streams/locations, so a quick locate-assist fits their workflow.",
     "risiko": "Wrong if they already know the way or the meetup is cancelled; a map ping during a fast-moving crowd moment could be ignored or annoying.",
     "konfidenz": 0.6,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Note museum visit for recap",
       "verworfen_weil": "Capturing the museum bit is a nice-to-have idea, not an active need during a rushed departure"
      },
      {
       "karte": "Remind: no streaming inside",
       "verworfen_weil": "They already left the venue; the rule no longer applies"
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [
      "Open walking directions",
      "Share pin with Lacy and Jason",
      "Message Jay Lee for location"
     ],
     "karte": true,
     "kategorie": "transport",
     "titel": "Navigate to meetup point",
     "zeile": "Find where Jay Lee is waiting",
     "aktion": "Opens maps with a pin at [meeting point] and starts walking directions",
     "haltbar_s": 240,
     "grund": "They are actively departing to find someone whose location is uncertain, so a navigation card will still be relevant when it appears.",
     "verdict": "false",
     "early_by": 181,
     "need": "transport",
     "need_start": 652
    },
    "openai/gpt-5.6-luna": {
     "lat": 8.4,
     "visible_at": 463.4,
     "cost": 0.0017407,
     "raw": "{\n  \"beobachtung\": \"\\\"Oh we gotta move out right now\\\" [0:06:26] and \\\"Yo, where you at\\\" [0:07:01].\",\n  \"vorhersage\": \"They will need to coordinate their next meeting point and reconnect with the missing crew or interview subject for several minutes.\",\n  \"reasoning\": \"The group has been told to leave and is actively trying to locate people while arranging a quick interview. This need should still exist when the card appears because they are already moving and no destination is stated. The latency makes a departure-coordination card more useful than a prompt about the earlier museum interaction. Earlier transcript context shows confusion about Lacy, YBG, and Jay Lee's locations.\",\n  \"alternativen\": [\n    {\n      \"karte\": \"Open Maps\",\n      \"verworfen_weil\": \"No destination or confirmed meeting point is available.\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"karte\": \"Recording Permission Reminder\",\n      \"verworfen_weil\": \"The permission dispute was already addressed and the group is leaving.\"\n    }\n  ],\n  \"karte\": true,\n  \"kategorie\": \"transport\",\n  \"titel\": \"Coordinate the Move\",\n  \"zeile\": \"Leave now and reconnect with the crew.\",\n  \"aktion\": \"Open the crew coordination thread.\",\n  \"optionen\": [\n    \"Message Lacy\",\n    \"Message YBG\",\n    \"Message Jay Lee\"\n  ],\n  \"haltbar_s\": 300,\n  \"konfidenz\": 0.82,\n  \"risiko\": \"This could be annoying if everyone has already regrouped or the interview is canceled.\",\n  \"grund\": \"The group is leaving immediately while still searching for people and arranging an interview.\"\n}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "\"Oh we gotta move out right now\" [0:06:26] and \"Yo, where you at\" [0:07:01].",
     "vorhersage": "They will need to coordinate their next meeting point and reconnect with the missing crew or interview subject for several minutes.",
     "reasoning": "The group has been told to leave and is actively trying to locate people while arranging a quick interview. This need should still exist when the card appears because they are already moving and no destination is stated. The latency makes a departure-coordination card more useful than a prompt about the earlier museum interaction. Earlier transcript context shows confusion about Lacy, YBG, and Jay Lee's locations.",
     "risiko": "This could be annoying if everyone has already regrouped or the interview is canceled.",
     "konfidenz": 0.82,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Open Maps",
       "verworfen_weil": "No destination or confirmed meeting point is available."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Recording Permission Reminder",
       "verworfen_weil": "The permission dispute was already addressed and the group is leaving."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [
      "Message Lacy",
      "Message YBG",
      "Message Jay Lee"
     ],
     "karte": true,
     "kategorie": "transport",
     "titel": "Coordinate the Move",
     "zeile": "Leave now and reconnect with the crew.",
     "aktion": "Open the crew coordination thread.",
     "haltbar_s": 300,
     "grund": "The group is leaving immediately while still searching for people and arranging an interview.",
     "verdict": "false",
     "early_by": 189,
     "need": "transport",
     "need_start": 652
    },
    "google/gemini-3.8-flash": {
     "lat": 7.3,
     "visible_at": 462.3,
     "cost": 0.00581475,
     "raw": "{\"beobachtung\": \"[0:06:26] Marlon: 'Oh we gotta move out right now.' and [0:07:01] Speaker 1: 'Yo, where you at, where you at? Pull up on us.'\", \"reasoning\": \"The group just exited the venue and was stopped by fans for photos while simultaneously on a call trying to locate Lacy and their cameraman. There is no confirmed destination, booking, or route established yet, as they are actively asking the other party where they are. Pushing a transport or navigation card right now would be completely guessing.\", \"alternativen\": [{\"karte\": \"Navigation to Lacy's stream location\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"Lacy's exact whereabouts are unknown and currently being resolved directly over the phone.\"}], \"karte\": false, \"grund\": \"The group is coordinating directly via phone while handling fans, so any navigation or departure card would be premature guessing.\"}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "[0:06:26] Marlon: 'Oh we gotta move out right now.' and [0:07:01] Speaker 1: 'Yo, where you at, where you at? Pull up on us.'",
     "vorhersage": "",
     "reasoning": "The group just exited the venue and was stopped by fans for photos while simultaneously on a call trying to locate Lacy and their cameraman. There is no confirmed destination, booking, or route established yet, as they are actively asking the other party where they are. Pushing a transport or navigation card right now would be completely guessing.",
     "risiko": "",
     "konfidenz": null,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Navigation to Lacy's stream location",
       "verworfen_weil": "Lacy's exact whereabouts are unknown and currently being resolved directly over the phone."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [],
     "verdict": "silent",
     "karte": false,
     "grund": "The group is coordinating directly via phone while handling fans, so any navigation or departure card would be premature guessing."
    },
    "openai/gpt-5.6-sol": {
     "lat": 5.6,
     "visible_at": 460.6,
     "cost": 0.010111,
     "raw": "{\"beobachtung\":\"[0:06:26] Marlon: “Oh we gotta move out right now.” [0:07:01] Speaker 1: “Yo, where you at, where you at? Pull up on us.”\",\"reasoning\":\"The group is leaving immediately, but no next destination or transportation request is stated. They are already coordinating directly with their missing friend, which should resolve faster than the card’s 10–30 second latency. Earlier context only shows that venue staff asked them to stop creating content and leave, not where they plan to go afterward. A card appearing once they are already outside would add distraction without solving a durable need.\",\"alternativen\":[{\"karte\":\"Route to next stop\",\"verworfen_weil\":\"No next destination was named.\"},{\"karte\":\"Locate missing friend\",\"verworfen_weil\":\"They are already contacting the friend directly, and the need may resolve within seconds.\"}],\"karte\":false,\"grund\":\"The departure is real but immediate, and there is no unresolved long-lasting task to support.\"}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "[0:06:26] Marlon: “Oh we gotta move out right now.” [0:07:01] Speaker 1: “Yo, where you at, where you at? Pull up on us.”",
     "vorhersage": "",
     "reasoning": "The group is leaving immediately, but no next destination or transportation request is stated. They are already coordinating directly with their missing friend, which should resolve faster than the card’s 10–30 second latency. Earlier context only shows that venue staff asked them to stop creating content and leave, not where they plan to go afterward. A card appearing once they are already outside would add distraction without solving a durable need.",
     "risiko": "",
     "konfidenz": null,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Route to next stop",
       "verworfen_weil": "No next destination was named."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Locate missing friend",
       "verworfen_weil": "They are already contacting the friend directly, and the need may resolve within seconds."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [],
     "verdict": "silent",
     "karte": false,
     "grund": "The departure is real but immediate, and there is no unresolved long-lasting task to support."
    },
    "moonshotai/kimi-k3": {
     "lat": 74.5,
     "visible_at": 529.5,
     "cost": 0.0723903,
     "raw": "{\n \"beobachtung\": \"[0:05:41] 'Who the fuck is our cameraman? Where's YBG? Where the fuck are they at?' and [0:07:01] 'Yo, where you at, where you at?' / [0:07:04] 'Pull up on us.'\",\n \"vorhersage\": \"For the next 2-5 minutes the group will be outside the venue trying to link up with Lacy/the cameraman while getting stopped for photos; once he arrives the need is gone.\",\n \"reasoning\": \"The group just got pushed out of the venue and is actively regrouping: Marlon checked Lacy's stream at 0:06:03, they asked where he is, and at 0:07:01-07:04 they called him and told him to pull up. That coordination is still open at 07:15 and, with fan photos and interviews slowing them down, will very likely still be open when the card appears around 07:40-08:00. They handled the talking part themselves, but a one-tap live-location share is the piece nobody has done yet and it directly solves a moving-target meetup on the street. Later than ~5 minutes this is stale, which is why the card has a short shelf life and low cost if wrong.\",\n \"alternativen\": [\n  {\"karte\": \"Order Uber for the departure\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"No next destination was announced; they are walking to Lacy first, so a ride card would invent a trip.\"},\n  {\"karte\": \"Stream-ops note: venue allows recording only\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"They already know and dealt with staff themselves; not actionable and awkward to surface.\"},\n  {\"karte\": \"Save the man-on-the-street interview idea\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"The interview is happening live right now, not an idea that needs capturing.\"}\n ],\n \"karte\": true,\n \"kategorie\": \"followup\",\n \"titel\": \"Share location with Lacy\",\n \"zeile\": \"Lacy is pulling up — send him your live location so he finds you.\",\n \"aktion\": \"Opens a message to Lacy with a live-location link ready to send.\",\n \"optionen\": [\"Share live location\", \"Call Lacy\", \"Dismiss\"],\n \"haltbar_s\": 240,\n \"konfidenz\": 0.58,\n \"risiko\": \"Stale if Lacy already linked up with them in the last 15 seconds or arrives within the next minute; then it is harmless noise on the phone.\",\n \"grund\": \"The crew is mid-meetup with Lacy right now, and a one-tap live-location share is the fastest way to close that loop while they walk.\"\n}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "[0:05:41] 'Who the fuck is our cameraman? Where's YBG? Where the fuck are they at?' and [0:07:01] 'Yo, where you at, where you at?' / [0:07:04] 'Pull up on us.'",
     "vorhersage": "For the next 2-5 minutes the group will be outside the venue trying to link up with Lacy/the cameraman while getting stopped for photos; once he arrives the need is gone.",
     "reasoning": "The group just got pushed out of the venue and is actively regrouping: Marlon checked Lacy's stream at 0:06:03, they asked where he is, and at 0:07:01-07:04 they called him and told him to pull up. That coordination is still open at 07:15 and, with fan photos and interviews slowing them down, will very likely still be open when the card appears around 07:40-08:00. They handled the talking part themselves, but a one-tap live-location share is the piece nobody has done yet and it directly solves a moving-target meetup on the street. Later than ~5 minutes this is stale, which is why the card has a short shelf life and low cost if wrong.",
     "risiko": "Stale if Lacy already linked up with them in the last 15 seconds or arrives within the next minute; then it is harmless noise on the phone.",
     "konfidenz": 0.58,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Order Uber for the departure",
       "verworfen_weil": "No next destination was announced; they are walking to Lacy first, so a ride card would invent a trip."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Stream-ops note: venue allows recording only",
       "verworfen_weil": "They already know and dealt with staff themselves; not actionable and awkward to surface."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Save the man-on-the-street interview idea",
       "verworfen_weil": "The interview is happening live right now, not an idea that needs capturing."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [
      "Share live location",
      "Call Lacy",
      "Dismiss"
     ],
     "karte": true,
     "kategorie": "followup",
     "titel": "Share location with Lacy",
     "zeile": "Lacy is pulling up — send him your live location so he finds you.",
     "aktion": "Opens a message to Lacy with a live-location link ready to send.",
     "haltbar_s": 240,
     "grund": "The crew is mid-meetup with Lacy right now, and a one-tap live-location share is the fastest way to close that loop while they walk.",
     "verdict": "early",
     "early_by": 18,
     "need": "followup",
     "need_start": 547
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "t": 510,
   "signal": "aufbruch",
   "conf": 0.72,
   "seen_until": 495,
   "models": {
    "deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash": {
     "lat": 2.6,
     "visible_at": 517.6,
     "cost": 0.0015822,
     "raw": "{\n  \"beobachtung\": \"[0:06:26] Marlon: \\\"Oh we gotta move out right now.\\\" and [0:08:12] Marlon: \\\"We gotta, we gotta keep it moving, bro.\\\" — the group is leaving the museum and being pulled in multiple directions by fans.\",\n  \"vorhersage\": \"The group will be on the sidewalk without a clear destination, needing to decide where to go next (next museum floor, food, or another spot) for at least several minutes while fans keep interrupting.\",\n  \"reasoning\": \"The pre-filter 'aufbruch' fired at 0.72 and the transcript confirms a departure in progress: they exited to the first floor, said goodbye, and are now outside dealing with photo requests. This is not a sub-30-second action — they are between locations with no stated next stop, which is exactly the kind of gap that lasts. The 10–30s card latency means by the time it shows they will still be walking and deciding. Earlier in the stream they were inside a museum; nothing in the transcript names the next destination, so a card offering next-stop options is useful now and would be stale once they commit.\",\n  \"alternativen\": [\n    {\n      \"karte\": \"Fan photo queue management\",\n      \"verworfen_weil\": \"Handling fans is a recurring, self-resolving social flow; a card would be noise and they are already managing it verbally.\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"karte\": \"Book next museum/attraction ticket\",\n      \"verworfen_weil\": \"No specific next place is named yet, so booking would be premature and risk inventing details.\"\n    }\n  ],\n  \"karte\": true,\n  \"kategorie\": \"place\",\n  \"titel\": \"Next stop after museum\",\n  \"zeile\": \"Pick where to head next before fans pile up\",\n  \"aktion\": \"Opens a short list of nearby next-stop options to choose from\",\n  \"optionen\": [\"Next museum floor\", \"Food nearby\", \"Walk and decide\"],\n  \"haltbar_s\": 240,\n  \"konfidenz\": 0.62,\n  \"risiko\": \"If the group already has a plan in mind or is just relocating a block away, the card is unnecessary and mildly annoying.\",\n  \"grund\": \"They just left the museum with no stated next destination and are still deciding while walking.\"\n}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "[0:06:26] Marlon: \"Oh we gotta move out right now.\" and [0:08:12] Marlon: \"We gotta, we gotta keep it moving, bro.\" — the group is leaving the museum and being pulled in multiple directions by fans.",
     "vorhersage": "The group will be on the sidewalk without a clear destination, needing to decide where to go next (next museum floor, food, or another spot) for at least several minutes while fans keep interrupting.",
     "reasoning": "The pre-filter 'aufbruch' fired at 0.72 and the transcript confirms a departure in progress: they exited to the first floor, said goodbye, and are now outside dealing with photo requests. This is not a sub-30-second action — they are between locations with no stated next stop, which is exactly the kind of gap that lasts. The 10–30s card latency means by the time it shows they will still be walking and deciding. Earlier in the stream they were inside a museum; nothing in the transcript names the next destination, so a card offering next-stop options is useful now and would be stale once they commit.",
     "risiko": "If the group already has a plan in mind or is just relocating a block away, the card is unnecessary and mildly annoying.",
     "konfidenz": 0.62,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Fan photo queue management",
       "verworfen_weil": "Handling fans is a recurring, self-resolving social flow; a card would be noise and they are already managing it verbally."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Book next museum/attraction ticket",
       "verworfen_weil": "No specific next place is named yet, so booking would be premature and risk inventing details."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [
      "Next museum floor",
      "Food nearby",
      "Walk and decide"
     ],
     "karte": true,
     "kategorie": "place",
     "titel": "Next stop after museum",
     "zeile": "Pick where to head next before fans pile up",
     "aktion": "Opens a short list of nearby next-stop options to choose from",
     "haltbar_s": 240,
     "grund": "They just left the museum with no stated next destination and are still deciding while walking.",
     "verdict": "early",
     "early_by": 108,
     "need": "place",
     "need_start": 626
    },
    "z-ai/glm-5.3-flash": {
     "lat": 12.9,
     "visible_at": 527.9,
     "cost": 0.000656,
     "raw": "{\n \"beobachtung\": \"[0:06:26] Marlon: 'Oh we gotta move out right now' and [0:07:01] 'Yo, where you at, where you at?' — group left the museum and is navigating a crowd toward someone (Jay Lee?)\",\n \"reasoning\": \"The aufbruch signal fits the departure from the museum, but the group has no stated destination, address, or booking — they are walking toward a person in the same area and asking bystanders where he is. By the time a card appears (10-30s after 08:30), they will either have found him or moved on to the next fan interaction, so any navigation card would likely be stale. Nothing in the transcript up to 08:15 establishes a concrete place to route to, and inventing one is not allowed.\",\n \"alternativen\": [{\"karte\": \"Route to Jay Lee meeting point\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"No location for Jay Lee was ever stated; a card with a placeholder destination would be useless and possibly wrong\"}, {\"karte\": \"Note museum visit for stream recap\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"Cleanup/idea capture is valid but not urgent; the group is mid-movement and no one asked to remember it\"}],\n \"karte\": false,\n \"grund\": \"The departure signal is real but there is no concrete destination or lasting need visible by the time a card would appear.\"\n}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "[0:06:26] Marlon: 'Oh we gotta move out right now' and [0:07:01] 'Yo, where you at, where you at?' — group left the museum and is navigating a crowd toward someone (Jay Lee?)",
     "vorhersage": "",
     "reasoning": "The aufbruch signal fits the departure from the museum, but the group has no stated destination, address, or booking — they are walking toward a person in the same area and asking bystanders where he is. By the time a card appears (10-30s after 08:30), they will either have found him or moved on to the next fan interaction, so any navigation card would likely be stale. Nothing in the transcript up to 08:15 establishes a concrete place to route to, and inventing one is not allowed.",
     "risiko": "",
     "konfidenz": null,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Route to Jay Lee meeting point",
       "verworfen_weil": "No location for Jay Lee was ever stated; a card with a placeholder destination would be useless and possibly wrong"
      },
      {
       "karte": "Note museum visit for stream recap",
       "verworfen_weil": "Cleanup/idea capture is valid but not urgent; the group is mid-movement and no one asked to remember it"
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [],
     "verdict": "silent",
     "karte": false,
     "grund": "The departure signal is real but there is no concrete destination or lasting need visible by the time a card would appear."
    },
    "openai/gpt-5.6-luna": {
     "lat": 4.0,
     "visible_at": 519.0,
     "cost": 0.00127725,
     "raw": "{\n  \"beobachtung\": \"\\\"Oh we gotta move out right now.\\\" [00:06:26]; \\\"we gotta keep it moving\\\" [00:08:12]\",\n  \"reasoning\": \"The group was told to leave and is already actively moving, so the immediate need is likely resolved within seconds. No next destination, meeting point, or transport request is stated. A card appearing 10–30 seconds later would risk interrupting their exit rather than helping with a durable need. Earlier confusion about locating people was handled verbally and also appears transient.\",\n  \"alternativen\": [\n    {\n      \"karte\": \"Find a regroup point\",\n      \"verworfen_weil\": \"No regroup location or separation problem is clearly established.\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"karte\": \"Plan next destination\",\n      \"verworfen_weil\": \"The transcript does not announce a destination or ask for route planning.\"\n    }\n  ],\n  \"karte\": false,\n  \"grund\": \"The apparent departure need is immediate and already underway, with no persistent actionable request.\"\n}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "\"Oh we gotta move out right now.\" [00:06:26]; \"we gotta keep it moving\" [00:08:12]",
     "vorhersage": "",
     "reasoning": "The group was told to leave and is already actively moving, so the immediate need is likely resolved within seconds. No next destination, meeting point, or transport request is stated. A card appearing 10–30 seconds later would risk interrupting their exit rather than helping with a durable need. Earlier confusion about locating people was handled verbally and also appears transient.",
     "risiko": "",
     "konfidenz": null,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Find a regroup point",
       "verworfen_weil": "No regroup location or separation problem is clearly established."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Plan next destination",
       "verworfen_weil": "The transcript does not announce a destination or ask for route planning."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [],
     "verdict": "silent",
     "karte": false,
     "grund": "The apparent departure need is immediate and already underway, with no persistent actionable request."
    },
    "google/gemini-3.8-flash": {
     "lat": 10.4,
     "visible_at": 525.4,
     "cost": 0.006564,
     "raw": "{\"beobachtung\": \"Marlon at 08:14 says 'I can't, I can't. We gotta, we gotta keep it moving, bro.' while being stopped by fans on the street.\", \"reasoning\": \"The group exited the Museum of Sex around 05:30 and is currently walking down the street dealing with fans asking for photos. The pre-filter 'aufbruch' caught Marlon saying they need to keep moving, but this is a crowd-brushing interaction rather than a navigation or departure decision. There is no specific known destination, transit booking, or pending logistical task in the transcript.\", \"alternativen\": [{\"karte\": \"Lacy's stream or location lookup\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"No location or meeting point was specified or requested, and Marlon already checked the stream on his own at 06:03.\"}], \"karte\": false, \"grund\": \"Marlon is actively dodging fan requests while walking down the street, with no clear destination or logistical task requiring a card.\"}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "Marlon at 08:14 says 'I can't, I can't. We gotta, we gotta keep it moving, bro.' while being stopped by fans on the street.",
     "vorhersage": "",
     "reasoning": "The group exited the Museum of Sex around 05:30 and is currently walking down the street dealing with fans asking for photos. The pre-filter 'aufbruch' caught Marlon saying they need to keep moving, but this is a crowd-brushing interaction rather than a navigation or departure decision. There is no specific known destination, transit booking, or pending logistical task in the transcript.",
     "risiko": "",
     "konfidenz": null,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Lacy's stream or location lookup",
       "verworfen_weil": "No location or meeting point was specified or requested, and Marlon already checked the stream on his own at 06:03."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [],
     "verdict": "silent",
     "karte": false,
     "grund": "Marlon is actively dodging fan requests while walking down the street, with no clear destination or logistical task requiring a card."
    },
    "openai/gpt-5.6-sol": {
     "lat": 5.1,
     "visible_at": 520.1,
     "cost": 0.0106385,
     "raw": "{\"beobachtung\":\"[0:08:12] Marlon: “We gotta, we gotta keep it moving, bro.”\",\"reasoning\":\"The group is already leaving, so the departure need is being handled without assistance. No destination, route, or transport request has been stated. With the 10–30 second display latency, a movement prompt would arrive after they are underway and would only distract them. Earlier, they also established the direction verbally and repeatedly urged everyone to move.\",\"alternativen\":[{\"karte\":\"Open directions\",\"verworfen_weil\":\"No destination was named.\"},{\"karte\":\"Venue recording permission follow-up\",\"verworfen_weil\":\"They have left and did not express an intent to return or contact the office.\"}],\"karte\":false,\"grund\":\"Their immediate departure is already in progress, and there is no unresolved lasting need.\"}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "[0:08:12] Marlon: “We gotta, we gotta keep it moving, bro.”",
     "vorhersage": "",
     "reasoning": "The group is already leaving, so the departure need is being handled without assistance. No destination, route, or transport request has been stated. With the 10–30 second display latency, a movement prompt would arrive after they are underway and would only distract them. Earlier, they also established the direction verbally and repeatedly urged everyone to move.",
     "risiko": "",
     "konfidenz": null,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Open directions",
       "verworfen_weil": "No destination was named."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Venue recording permission follow-up",
       "verworfen_weil": "They have left and did not express an intent to return or contact the office."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [],
     "verdict": "silent",
     "karte": false,
     "grund": "Their immediate departure is already in progress, and there is no unresolved lasting need."
    },
    "moonshotai/kimi-k3": {
     "lat": 45.4,
     "visible_at": 560.4,
     "cost": 0.065232,
     "raw": "{\n \"beobachtung\": \"[0:05:41] Speaker 1: 'Help Lacey? ... Where's YBG? Where the fuck are they at?' · [0:06:26] Marlon: 'Oh we gotta move out right now.' · [0:07:01] Speaker 1: 'Yo, where you at, where you at? Pull up on us.'\",\n \"vorhersage\": \"When the card appears (~08:40–09:00) the group is outside the museum, slowed by fans asking for photos, still trying to regroup with Lacy and cameraman YBG. The open loop has already run 2+ minutes (06:03 → 07:01) and will likely persist another 2–4 minutes until they physically reunite.\",\n \"reasoning\": \"The 'aufbruch' signal is real: staff told them to leave at 04:06 and they have been exiting since, but the actual unresolved need is not the departure itself, it is the regroup with Lacy/YBG, which has been asked about repeatedly across minutes. Now is the right moment because the coordination is active and unfinished; later it is moot once they meet. Latency is the main threat: with 15s transcript lag plus 10–30s display delay they could reunite before the card shows, but the fan swarm ('we gotta keep it moving') makes a slow regroup more likely. Earlier context confirms Lacy is separated (chat flagged 'Help Lacey', Marlon checked his stream) and someone gave only a vague 'straight that way' direction, so a location-sharing aid adds real value.\",\n \"alternativen\": [{\"karte\": \"Next stop after the museum\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"No destination was announced anywhere in the transcript; showing one would invent a plan.\"}, {\"karte\": \"Save clip idea: world's first vibrator segment\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"Nobody asked to note or clip anything; Marlon's commentary is not a request to me.\"}],\n \"karte\": true,\n \"kategorie\": \"transport\",\n \"titel\": \"Regroup with Lacy\",\n \"zeile\": \"Lacy/YBG split off — share your live location or navigate to their pin: [location message]\",\n \"aktion\": \"Opens live-location sharing to Lacy in the group chat; secondary option starts walking navigation to Lacy's shared pin.\",\n \"optionen\": [\"Share live location\", \"Navigate to Lacy's pin\", \"Call Lacy\"],\n \"haltbar_s\": 240,\n \"konfidenz\": 0.55,\n \"risiko\": \"Wrong if they already reunited in the last 15 seconds, or if Lacy is already walking to them and knows the way — then it is stale noise during a chaotic fan moment.\",\n \"grund\": \"The group is mid-departure with an active, minutes-long open loop of finding Lacy and YBG, so a one-tap location share/navigate card is useful for the next few minutes.\"\n}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "[0:05:41] Speaker 1: 'Help Lacey? ... Where's YBG? Where the fuck are they at?' · [0:06:26] Marlon: 'Oh we gotta move out right now.' · [0:07:01] Speaker 1: 'Yo, where you at, where you at? Pull up on us.'",
     "vorhersage": "When the card appears (~08:40–09:00) the group is outside the museum, slowed by fans asking for photos, still trying to regroup with Lacy and cameraman YBG. The open loop has already run 2+ minutes (06:03 → 07:01) and will likely persist another 2–4 minutes until they physically reunite.",
     "reasoning": "The 'aufbruch' signal is real: staff told them to leave at 04:06 and they have been exiting since, but the actual unresolved need is not the departure itself, it is the regroup with Lacy/YBG, which has been asked about repeatedly across minutes. Now is the right moment because the coordination is active and unfinished; later it is moot once they meet. Latency is the main threat: with 15s transcript lag plus 10–30s display delay they could reunite before the card shows, but the fan swarm ('we gotta keep it moving') makes a slow regroup more likely. Earlier context confirms Lacy is separated (chat flagged 'Help Lacey', Marlon checked his stream) and someone gave only a vague 'straight that way' direction, so a location-sharing aid adds real value.",
     "risiko": "Wrong if they already reunited in the last 15 seconds, or if Lacy is already walking to them and knows the way — then it is stale noise during a chaotic fan moment.",
     "konfidenz": 0.55,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Next stop after the museum",
       "verworfen_weil": "No destination was announced anywhere in the transcript; showing one would invent a plan."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Save clip idea: world's first vibrator segment",
       "verworfen_weil": "Nobody asked to note or clip anything; Marlon's commentary is not a request to me."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [
      "Share live location",
      "Navigate to Lacy's pin",
      "Call Lacy"
     ],
     "karte": true,
     "kategorie": "transport",
     "titel": "Regroup with Lacy",
     "zeile": "Lacy/YBG split off — share your live location or navigate to their pin: [location message]",
     "aktion": "Opens live-location sharing to Lacy in the group chat; secondary option starts walking navigation to Lacy's shared pin.",
     "haltbar_s": 240,
     "grund": "The group is mid-departure with an active, minutes-long open loop of finding Lacy and YBG, so a one-tap location share/navigate card is useful for the next few minutes.",
     "verdict": "early",
     "early_by": 92,
     "need": "transport",
     "need_start": 652
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "t": 570,
   "signal": "aufbruch",
   "conf": 0.71,
   "seen_until": 555,
   "models": {
    "deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash": {
     "lat": 7.6,
     "visible_at": 582.6,
     "cost": 0.00077246,
     "raw": "{\n  \"beobachtung\": \"[0:09:07] Speaker 1: \\\"Maybe we call the place and be like...\\\" / [0:09:10] Marlon: \\\"Yeah. I mean, what if we talk to like the manager? Yes, but you should. That's great promo.\\\"\",\n  \"vorhersage\": \"The group has just been kicked out of the museum and is walking away; the idea of calling the venue/manager to get back in or arrange promo will still be unresolved when the card appears, and will persist for several minutes while they walk and take fan photos.\",\n  \"reasoning\": \"The pre-filter 'aufbruch' fired, but the transcript shows the group is not simply departing — they are actively brainstorming a follow-up with the museum manager after being kicked out. This is a concrete, announced idea ('call the place', 'talk to the manager', 'great promo') that will not be finished in under 30 seconds and is exactly the kind of booking/followup that benefits from being captured. The latency of 10–30 seconds means the card will appear while they are still walking and likely still discussing it, so the need will still exist. Earlier in the stream they were inside the museum and got removed, so the contact info is not yet in hand and a placeholder card is appropriate.\",\n  \"alternativen\": [\n    {\n      \"karte\": \"Note the museum as a future segment idea\",\n      \"verworfen_weil\": \"Too passive; the group is already discussing a concrete action (calling the manager), so a followup card is more useful.\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"karte\": \"Find nearby food/coffee\",\n      \"verworfen_weil\": \"No mention of hunger or a break in the transcript; not a current need.\"\n    }\n  ],\n  \"karte\": true,\n  \"kategorie\": \"followup\",\n  \"titel\": \"Museum manager callback\",\n  \"zeile\": \"Call venue manager about promo / getting back in\",\n  \"aktion\": \"Opens a note with the museum follow-up idea and a placeholder for the venue contact.\",\n  \"optionen\": [\n    \"Save contact placeholder\",\n    \"Draft callback note\",\n    \"Remind in 30 min\"\n  ],\n  \"haltbar_s\": 600,\n  \"konfidenz\": 0.72,\n  \"risiko\": \"If the group drops the idea immediately or the museum is not worth pursuing, the card is noise; also if they already have the manager's contact, the placeholder is redundant.\",\n  \"grund\": \"The group explicitly floated calling the museum manager for promo right after being kicked out, a follow-up need that will outlast the card latency.\"\n}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "[0:09:07] Speaker 1: \"Maybe we call the place and be like...\" / [0:09:10] Marlon: \"Yeah. I mean, what if we talk to like the manager? Yes, but you should. That's great promo.\"",
     "vorhersage": "The group has just been kicked out of the museum and is walking away; the idea of calling the venue/manager to get back in or arrange promo will still be unresolved when the card appears, and will persist for several minutes while they walk and take fan photos.",
     "reasoning": "The pre-filter 'aufbruch' fired, but the transcript shows the group is not simply departing — they are actively brainstorming a follow-up with the museum manager after being kicked out. This is a concrete, announced idea ('call the place', 'talk to the manager', 'great promo') that will not be finished in under 30 seconds and is exactly the kind of booking/followup that benefits from being captured. The latency of 10–30 seconds means the card will appear while they are still walking and likely still discussing it, so the need will still exist. Earlier in the stream they were inside the museum and got removed, so the contact info is not yet in hand and a placeholder card is appropriate.",
     "risiko": "If the group drops the idea immediately or the museum is not worth pursuing, the card is noise; also if they already have the manager's contact, the placeholder is redundant.",
     "konfidenz": 0.72,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Note the museum as a future segment idea",
       "verworfen_weil": "Too passive; the group is already discussing a concrete action (calling the manager), so a followup card is more useful."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Find nearby food/coffee",
       "verworfen_weil": "No mention of hunger or a break in the transcript; not a current need."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [
      "Save contact placeholder",
      "Draft callback note",
      "Remind in 30 min"
     ],
     "karte": true,
     "kategorie": "followup",
     "titel": "Museum manager callback",
     "zeile": "Call venue manager about promo / getting back in",
     "aktion": "Opens a note with the museum follow-up idea and a placeholder for the venue contact.",
     "haltbar_s": 600,
     "grund": "The group explicitly floated calling the museum manager for promo right after being kicked out, a follow-up need that will outlast the card latency.",
     "verdict": "hit",
     "need": "followup",
     "need_start": 547
    },
    "z-ai/glm-5.3-flash": {
     "lat": 30.2,
     "visible_at": 605.2,
     "cost": 0.00062233,
     "raw": "{\n \"beobachtung\": \"[0:09:07] Speaker 1: \\\"Oh my god. Maybe we call the place and be like...\\\" [0:09:10] Marlon: \\\"Yeah. I mean, what if we talk to like the manager? Yes, but you should. That's great promo.\\\" [0:09:14] Unknown: \\\"Yeah. Bro, it's literally an educational museum. You wanna try?\\\"\",\n \"vorhersage\": \"The group was kicked out of the museum mid-stream and just realized contacting the manager could get them back in or set up a collab. When the card appears (~09:40-09:45) they will be walking to the next spot with a lull, and the idea of calling the manager will still be unresolved and worth acting on.\",\n \"reasoning\": \"The idea surfaced right at the transcript edge (09:07-09:14) and nobody booked it or wrote it down; it's exactly the kind of thing lost in stream chaos. The 'aufbruch' pre-filter fired, but the departure already happened minutes ago — what remains is the followup, not the leaving. Latency works in our favor here: by 09:40 the fan-photo chaos will have died down and a quiet walking moment is the natural time to place the call. Nothing in the transcript shows anyone actually dialing or saving the idea, so the need persists.\",\n \"alternativen\": [{\"karte\": \"Navigate to next location\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"No destination was named after leaving; inventing one would be a guess.\"}, {\"karte\": \"Note: museum segment lost\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"Marlon already vented about it to chat; pure cleanup, no action attached.\"}],\n \"karte\": true,\n \"kategorie\": \"followup\",\n \"titel\": \"Call museum manager\",\n \"zeile\": \"Kicked out — manager call could get re-entry or promo deal\",\n \"aktion\": \"Opens dialer with museum number placeholder\",\n \"optionen\": [\"Call now\", \"Save for later\", \"Dismiss\"],\n \"haltbar_s\": 900,\n \"konfidenz\": 0.72,\n \"risiko\": \"If they already dropped the idea or are mid-fan-interaction when the card lands, it's noise; also the museum explicitly objected to streaming, so a call may go nowhere.\",\n \"grund\": \"An unresolved, actionable idea (call the manager after being kicked out) was voiced by multiple people and will still be pending when the card becomes visible.\"\n}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "[0:09:07] Speaker 1: \"Oh my god. Maybe we call the place and be like...\" [0:09:10] Marlon: \"Yeah. I mean, what if we talk to like the manager? Yes, but you should. That's great promo.\" [0:09:14] Unknown: \"Yeah. Bro, it's literally an educational museum. You wanna try?\"",
     "vorhersage": "The group was kicked out of the museum mid-stream and just realized contacting the manager could get them back in or set up a collab. When the card appears (~09:40-09:45) they will be walking to the next spot with a lull, and the idea of calling the manager will still be unresolved and worth acting on.",
     "reasoning": "The idea surfaced right at the transcript edge (09:07-09:14) and nobody booked it or wrote it down; it's exactly the kind of thing lost in stream chaos. The 'aufbruch' pre-filter fired, but the departure already happened minutes ago — what remains is the followup, not the leaving. Latency works in our favor here: by 09:40 the fan-photo chaos will have died down and a quiet walking moment is the natural time to place the call. Nothing in the transcript shows anyone actually dialing or saving the idea, so the need persists.",
     "risiko": "If they already dropped the idea or are mid-fan-interaction when the card lands, it's noise; also the museum explicitly objected to streaming, so a call may go nowhere.",
     "konfidenz": 0.72,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Navigate to next location",
       "verworfen_weil": "No destination was named after leaving; inventing one would be a guess."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Note: museum segment lost",
       "verworfen_weil": "Marlon already vented about it to chat; pure cleanup, no action attached."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [
      "Call now",
      "Save for later",
      "Dismiss"
     ],
     "karte": true,
     "kategorie": "followup",
     "titel": "Call museum manager",
     "zeile": "Kicked out — manager call could get re-entry or promo deal",
     "aktion": "Opens dialer with museum number placeholder",
     "haltbar_s": 900,
     "grund": "An unresolved, actionable idea (call the manager after being kicked out) was voiced by multiple people and will still be pending when the card becomes visible.",
     "verdict": "hit",
     "need": "followup",
     "need_start": 547
    },
    "openai/gpt-5.6-luna": {
     "lat": 8.2,
     "visible_at": 583.2,
     "cost": 0.0018395,
     "raw": "{\n  \"beobachtung\": \"At 09:07 Marlon said, \\\"they just sold off a great segment,\\\" followed by discussion at 09:10 of calling the place and talking to the manager.\",\n  \"vorhersage\": \"When the card appears, they will still be deciding whether to contact the venue for permission to return or continue elsewhere; this may matter for several minutes.\",\n  \"reasoning\": \"The group was removed despite enjoying the museum and is actively considering contacting management. This need is more durable than the earlier requests for photos or quick movement. The 10-to-30-second card latency should still land while they are discussing the manager. Earlier context confirms that filming restrictions, not lack of interest, ended the segment.\",\n  \"alternativen\": [\n    {\n      \"karte\": \"Save museum segment idea\",\n      \"verworfen_weil\": \"The immediate need is resolving filming access, while capturing the idea can wait.\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"karte\": \"Find next destination\",\n      \"verworfen_weil\": \"They are still considering returning, so routing elsewhere would be premature.\"\n    }\n  ],\n  \"karte\": true,\n  \"kategorie\": \"followup\",\n  \"titel\": \"Ask Museum Manager\",\n  \"zeile\": \"Try to regain filming permission before leaving\",\n  \"aktion\": \"Open venue contact options\",\n  \"optionen\": [\n    \"Call venue manager\",\n    \"Find venue contact\",\n    \"Move on\"\n  ],\n  \"haltbar_s\": 240,\n  \"konfidenz\": 0.87,\n  \"risiko\": \"This would be annoying if management has already refused, the group has left, or they decide to move on before the card appears.\",\n  \"grund\": \"The group is actively discussing contacting management after being removed from a segment they want to continue.\"\n}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "At 09:07 Marlon said, \"they just sold off a great segment,\" followed by discussion at 09:10 of calling the place and talking to the manager.",
     "vorhersage": "When the card appears, they will still be deciding whether to contact the venue for permission to return or continue elsewhere; this may matter for several minutes.",
     "reasoning": "The group was removed despite enjoying the museum and is actively considering contacting management. This need is more durable than the earlier requests for photos or quick movement. The 10-to-30-second card latency should still land while they are discussing the manager. Earlier context confirms that filming restrictions, not lack of interest, ended the segment.",
     "risiko": "This would be annoying if management has already refused, the group has left, or they decide to move on before the card appears.",
     "konfidenz": 0.87,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Save museum segment idea",
       "verworfen_weil": "The immediate need is resolving filming access, while capturing the idea can wait."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Find next destination",
       "verworfen_weil": "They are still considering returning, so routing elsewhere would be premature."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [
      "Call venue manager",
      "Find venue contact",
      "Move on"
     ],
     "karte": true,
     "kategorie": "followup",
     "titel": "Ask Museum Manager",
     "zeile": "Try to regain filming permission before leaving",
     "aktion": "Open venue contact options",
     "haltbar_s": 240,
     "grund": "The group is actively discussing contacting management after being removed from a segment they want to continue.",
     "verdict": "hit",
     "need": "followup",
     "need_start": 547
    },
    "google/gemini-3.8-flash": {
     "lat": 8.8,
     "visible_at": 583.8,
     "cost": 0.00702525,
     "raw": "{\"beobachtung\": \"Marlon and Jason discuss calling the museum manager after getting kicked out: 'Maybe we call the place and be like... What if we talk to like the manager? [...] You wanna try? But like...' [0:09:07 - 0:09:14]\", \"reasoning\": \"The 'aufbruch' signal was likely a delayed trigger from Marlon telling fans 'we gotta go' around 06:30 while exiting. Outside on the sidewalk, the group is casually debriefing with Lacey about getting kicked out and wondering out loud if it's worth contacting management. They haven't decided on a destination or committed to calling the venue yet, so providing venue contacts or transport options right now would be intrusive speculation.\", \"alternativen\": [{\"karte\": \"Museum of Sex contact info\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"They are only musing about calling management ('You wanna try? But like...') rather than making an active decision to call.\"}, {\"karte\": \"Transport / next destination\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"The group just reunited with Lacey on the sidewalk and has not announced where they want to go next.\"}], \"karte\": false, \"grund\": \"The group is chatting with Lacey outside debating whether to contact management, with no decided destination or action yet.\"}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "Marlon and Jason discuss calling the museum manager after getting kicked out: 'Maybe we call the place and be like... What if we talk to like the manager? [...] You wanna try? But like...' [0:09:07 - 0:09:14]",
     "vorhersage": "",
     "reasoning": "The 'aufbruch' signal was likely a delayed trigger from Marlon telling fans 'we gotta go' around 06:30 while exiting. Outside on the sidewalk, the group is casually debriefing with Lacey about getting kicked out and wondering out loud if it's worth contacting management. They haven't decided on a destination or committed to calling the venue yet, so providing venue contacts or transport options right now would be intrusive speculation.",
     "risiko": "",
     "konfidenz": null,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Museum of Sex contact info",
       "verworfen_weil": "They are only musing about calling management ('You wanna try? But like...') rather than making an active decision to call."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Transport / next destination",
       "verworfen_weil": "The group just reunited with Lacey on the sidewalk and has not announced where they want to go next."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [],
     "verdict": "silent",
     "karte": false,
     "grund": "The group is chatting with Lacey outside debating whether to contact management, with no decided destination or action yet."
    },
    "openai/gpt-5.6-sol": {
     "lat": 10.3,
     "visible_at": 585.3,
     "cost": 0.016191,
     "raw": "{\"beobachtung\":\"[0:09:07] Speaker 1: “Maybe we call the place...” [0:09:10] Marlon: “What if we talk to like the manager?”\",\"vorhersage\":\"They will need the museum’s official contact channel to request filming permission, a need likely lasting through today.\",\"reasoning\":\"They were explicitly told earlier to contact the office if they wanted to make content, and now they are considering speaking with management. Permission is unlikely to be resolved within the card’s 10–30 second latency, so the need should remain relevant. Showing it now helps preserve the follow-up while they are leaving and handling fans. The earlier instruction from staff makes an official contact page more useful than an improvised call.\",\"alternativen\":[{\"karte\":\"Directions to the next stop\",\"verworfen_weil\":\"No next destination has been named.\"},{\"karte\":\"Museum filming reminder\",\"verworfen_weil\":\"They already understand that streaming requires permission.\"}],\"karte\":true,\"kategorie\":\"followup\",\"titel\":\"Request Filming Permission\",\"zeile\":\"Contact the museum office about returning to film.\",\"aktion\":\"Open the museum’s official contact page.\",\"optionen\":[\"Open contact page\",\"Draft permission request\",\"Save for later\"],\"haltbar_s\":14400,\"konfidenz\":0.88,\"risiko\":\"It would be unnecessary if someone has already contacted management or they abandon the segment.\",\"grund\":\"The group wants to return, and staff specifically directed content requests to the office.\"}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "[0:09:07] Speaker 1: “Maybe we call the place...” [0:09:10] Marlon: “What if we talk to like the manager?”",
     "vorhersage": "They will need the museum’s official contact channel to request filming permission, a need likely lasting through today.",
     "reasoning": "They were explicitly told earlier to contact the office if they wanted to make content, and now they are considering speaking with management. Permission is unlikely to be resolved within the card’s 10–30 second latency, so the need should remain relevant. Showing it now helps preserve the follow-up while they are leaving and handling fans. The earlier instruction from staff makes an official contact page more useful than an improvised call.",
     "risiko": "It would be unnecessary if someone has already contacted management or they abandon the segment.",
     "konfidenz": 0.88,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Directions to the next stop",
       "verworfen_weil": "No next destination has been named."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Museum filming reminder",
       "verworfen_weil": "They already understand that streaming requires permission."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [
      "Open contact page",
      "Draft permission request",
      "Save for later"
     ],
     "karte": true,
     "kategorie": "followup",
     "titel": "Request Filming Permission",
     "zeile": "Contact the museum office about returning to film.",
     "aktion": "Open the museum’s official contact page.",
     "haltbar_s": 14400,
     "grund": "The group wants to return, and staff specifically directed content requests to the office.",
     "verdict": "hit",
     "need": "followup",
     "need_start": 547
    },
    "moonshotai/kimi-k3": {
     "lat": 200.6,
     "visible_at": 775.6,
     "cost": 0.0306645,
     "raw": "{\n \"beobachtung\": \"[0:09:07] Speaker 1: 'Maybe we call the place and be like...' / [0:09:10] Marlon: 'what if we talk to like the manager? Yes, but you should. That's great promo.' — plus earlier [0:04:29] staff: 'you can reach out to our office' after kicking them out.\",\n \"vorhersage\": \"When the card appears (~09:40–10:00) the group will still be chewing on whether to call the museum's office/manager about filming permission, or will have deferred it — either way a call-now-or-save-note option stays relevant for many minutes.\",\n \"reasoning\": \"They were kicked out ~5 minutes ago, openly regret losing a 'great segment', and are actively debating calling the manager right now, so the decision window is open and unlikely to close within 30 seconds since it involves looking up a number and a business call. The staff explicitly invited them to contact the office, which makes this a concrete followup rather than idle talk. Latency of 10–30s is safe: even if they postpone the call, the 'save note' option keeps the card useful. The pre-filter's 'aufbruch' refers to the earlier exit; no new destination was announced, so transport is not the live need. Waiting longer risks missing the moment where Marlon would actually dial.\",\n \"alternativen\": [{\"karte\": \"Directions to Lacy / missing cameraman\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"That confusion was at ~06:00, three minutes stale, and the group appears regrouped and moving together now\"}, {\"karte\": \"Note card: clip ideas from the museum\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"The segment already happened; the actionable open item is the permission followup, not capturing past content\"}],\n \"karte\": true,\n \"kategorie\": \"followup\",\n \"titel\": \"Call museum about filming permission\",\n \"zeile\": \"Staff said contact their office — call now, or save the idea for later?\",\n \"aktion\": \"Single tap looks up the museum's office number via web and opens the dialer ready to call.\",\n \"optionen\": [\"Call office now\", \"Save note for later\", \"Dismiss\"],\n \"haltbar_s\": 900,\n \"konfidenz\": 0.6,\n \"risiko\": \"Annoying if they drop the idea in the next 30 seconds or if Marlon doesn't want a business call live on stream; then it reads as pushy.\",\n \"grund\": \"They were just kicked out, were explicitly told to contact the office, and are right now debating calling the manager — a call-or-save card matches that open decision.\"\n}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "[0:09:07] Speaker 1: 'Maybe we call the place and be like...' / [0:09:10] Marlon: 'what if we talk to like the manager? Yes, but you should. That's great promo.' — plus earlier [0:04:29] staff: 'you can reach out to our office' after kicking them out.",
     "vorhersage": "When the card appears (~09:40–10:00) the group will still be chewing on whether to call the museum's office/manager about filming permission, or will have deferred it — either way a call-now-or-save-note option stays relevant for many minutes.",
     "reasoning": "They were kicked out ~5 minutes ago, openly regret losing a 'great segment', and are actively debating calling the manager right now, so the decision window is open and unlikely to close within 30 seconds since it involves looking up a number and a business call. The staff explicitly invited them to contact the office, which makes this a concrete followup rather than idle talk. Latency of 10–30s is safe: even if they postpone the call, the 'save note' option keeps the card useful. The pre-filter's 'aufbruch' refers to the earlier exit; no new destination was announced, so transport is not the live need. Waiting longer risks missing the moment where Marlon would actually dial.",
     "risiko": "Annoying if they drop the idea in the next 30 seconds or if Marlon doesn't want a business call live on stream; then it reads as pushy.",
     "konfidenz": 0.6,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Directions to Lacy / missing cameraman",
       "verworfen_weil": "That confusion was at ~06:00, three minutes stale, and the group appears regrouped and moving together now"
      },
      {
       "karte": "Note card: clip ideas from the museum",
       "verworfen_weil": "The segment already happened; the actionable open item is the permission followup, not capturing past content"
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [
      "Call office now",
      "Save note for later",
      "Dismiss"
     ],
     "karte": true,
     "kategorie": "followup",
     "titel": "Call museum about filming permission",
     "zeile": "Staff said contact their office — call now, or save the idea for later?",
     "aktion": "Single tap looks up the museum's office number via web and opens the dialer ready to call.",
     "haltbar_s": 900,
     "grund": "They were just kicked out, were explicitly told to contact the office, and are right now debating calling the manager — a call-or-save card matches that open decision.",
     "verdict": "hit",
     "need": "followup",
     "need_start": 547
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "t": 630,
   "signal": "aufbruch",
   "conf": 0.67,
   "seen_until": 615,
   "models": {
    "deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash": {
     "lat": 4.3,
     "visible_at": 639.3,
     "cost": 0.00223725,
     "raw": "{\n  \"beobachtung\": \"[0:09:07] \\\"Maybe we call the place and be like...\\\" / [0:09:10] \\\"what if we talk to like the manager?\\\" / [0:09:20] \\\"if you could talk to the manager or whatever\\\"\",\n  \"vorhersage\": \"The group just got kicked out of the museum they found genuinely entertaining and is now floating the idea of calling the venue to negotiate a return or promo segment. This is an unresolved plan that will persist for at least several minutes while they walk and meet Lacy.\",\n  \"reasoning\": \"The pre-filter 'aufbruch' fired, but the real signal here is a concrete, unactioned idea: contact the museum manager to arrange a return or promo. Marlon explicitly endorses it twice and delegates to Jay, but nobody has the number, contact, or a plan. This is exactly the kind of 'announced plan / thing to book' that lasts long and benefits from a card. A card now, while the idea is hot and before they get distracted by Lacy and the next location, is the right moment. Waiting risks the idea dying as the walk continues.\",\n  \"alternativen\": [\n    {\"karte\": \"Find Lacy's location\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"They already spot him 'right in front of us' at 10:09:33 — resolved in under 30 seconds.\"},\n    {\"karte\": \"Note the museum as a content idea\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"Too passive; the actionable need is contacting the venue, not just noting it.\"}\n  ],\n  \"karte\": true,\n  \"kategorie\": \"followup\",\n  \"titel\": \"Museum manager contact\",\n  \"zeile\": \"Call museum to arrange return or promo segment\",\n  \"aktion\": \"Opens a note with the museum callback task and a placeholder for the venue's contact info\",\n  \"optionen\": [\"Save museum contact\", \"Draft callback script\", \"Remind in 30 min\"],\n  \"haltbar_s\": 600,\n  \"konfidenz\": 0.62,\n  \"risiko\": \"If the group has already dropped the idea or Jay is handling it off-stream, the card is redundant noise.\",\n  \"grund\": \"They explicitly want to call the museum manager to negotiate a return, and nobody has acted on it yet.\"\n}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "[0:09:07] \"Maybe we call the place and be like...\" / [0:09:10] \"what if we talk to like the manager?\" / [0:09:20] \"if you could talk to the manager or whatever\"",
     "vorhersage": "The group just got kicked out of the museum they found genuinely entertaining and is now floating the idea of calling the venue to negotiate a return or promo segment. This is an unresolved plan that will persist for at least several minutes while they walk and meet Lacy.",
     "reasoning": "The pre-filter 'aufbruch' fired, but the real signal here is a concrete, unactioned idea: contact the museum manager to arrange a return or promo. Marlon explicitly endorses it twice and delegates to Jay, but nobody has the number, contact, or a plan. This is exactly the kind of 'announced plan / thing to book' that lasts long and benefits from a card. A card now, while the idea is hot and before they get distracted by Lacy and the next location, is the right moment. Waiting risks the idea dying as the walk continues.",
     "risiko": "If the group has already dropped the idea or Jay is handling it off-stream, the card is redundant noise.",
     "konfidenz": 0.62,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Find Lacy's location",
       "verworfen_weil": "They already spot him 'right in front of us' at 10:09:33 — resolved in under 30 seconds."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Note the museum as a content idea",
       "verworfen_weil": "Too passive; the actionable need is contacting the venue, not just noting it."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [
      "Save museum contact",
      "Draft callback script",
      "Remind in 30 min"
     ],
     "karte": true,
     "kategorie": "followup",
     "titel": "Museum manager contact",
     "zeile": "Call museum to arrange return or promo segment",
     "aktion": "Opens a note with the museum callback task and a placeholder for the venue's contact info",
     "haltbar_s": 600,
     "grund": "They explicitly want to call the museum manager to negotiate a return, and nobody has acted on it yet.",
     "verdict": "hit",
     "need": "followup",
     "need_start": 547
    },
    "z-ai/glm-5.3-flash": {
     "lat": 17.5,
     "visible_at": 652.5,
     "cost": 0.00086475,
     "raw": "{\n \"beobachtung\": \"[0:09:07] Speaker 1: \\\"Maybe we call the place and be like...\\\" [0:09:10] Marlon: \\\"what if we talk to like the manager? ... That's great promo.\\\" [0:09:20] Marlon: \\\"that's a good idea, bro ... if you could talk to the manager\\\"\",\n \"vorhersage\": \"Group is outside, mobbed by fans, moving toward Lacy; the manager-call idea will still be unactioned for several minutes while they handle the crowd and regroup.\",\n \"reasoning\": \"The idea to call the museum manager about a promo partnership was agreed by Marlon and Jason but immediately interrupted by fan photos and finding Lacy. It is a lasting followup (contacting a business), not something finished in 30 seconds. The 15-second lag plus card latency lands the card while they are still occupied with the crowd, which is exactly when they'd forget the idea. The 'aufbruch' pre-filter fired on the departure from the museum, but the departure itself is done and needs no card; the actionable residue is the manager outreach.\",\n \"alternativen\": [{\"karte\": \"Route to Lacy / meetup point\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"They already located Lacy and are walking right toward him; resolved within seconds.\"}, {\"karte\": \"Note museum segment got cut\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"Marlon already vented about it in chat; no action attached.\"}], \n \"karte\": true,\n \"kategorie\": \"followup\",\n \"titel\": \"Call museum manager re promo\",\n \"zeile\": \"Museum kicked you out but loved the segment — pitch the manager\",\n \"aktion\": \"Opens a note with the idea and a placeholder for the museum's contact number\",\n \"optionen\": [\"Add museum contact placeholder\", \"Assign to Jason\", \"Snooze until stream ends\"],\n \"haltbar_s\": 600,\n \"konfidenz\": 0.72,\n \"risiko\": \"If they call the manager immediately or drop the idea in the next minute, the card is noise; also the museum may be unreceptive after kicking them out.\",\n \"grund\": \"The manager-outreach idea was explicitly agreed but left unactioned amid the fan chaos, and it remains valid minutes later.\"\n}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "[0:09:07] Speaker 1: \"Maybe we call the place and be like...\" [0:09:10] Marlon: \"what if we talk to like the manager? ... That's great promo.\" [0:09:20] Marlon: \"that's a good idea, bro ... if you could talk to the manager\"",
     "vorhersage": "Group is outside, mobbed by fans, moving toward Lacy; the manager-call idea will still be unactioned for several minutes while they handle the crowd and regroup.",
     "reasoning": "The idea to call the museum manager about a promo partnership was agreed by Marlon and Jason but immediately interrupted by fan photos and finding Lacy. It is a lasting followup (contacting a business), not something finished in 30 seconds. The 15-second lag plus card latency lands the card while they are still occupied with the crowd, which is exactly when they'd forget the idea. The 'aufbruch' pre-filter fired on the departure from the museum, but the departure itself is done and needs no card; the actionable residue is the manager outreach.",
     "risiko": "If they call the manager immediately or drop the idea in the next minute, the card is noise; also the museum may be unreceptive after kicking them out.",
     "konfidenz": 0.72,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Route to Lacy / meetup point",
       "verworfen_weil": "They already located Lacy and are walking right toward him; resolved within seconds."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Note museum segment got cut",
       "verworfen_weil": "Marlon already vented about it in chat; no action attached."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [
      "Add museum contact placeholder",
      "Assign to Jason",
      "Snooze until stream ends"
     ],
     "karte": true,
     "kategorie": "followup",
     "titel": "Call museum manager re promo",
     "zeile": "Museum kicked you out but loved the segment — pitch the manager",
     "aktion": "Opens a note with the idea and a placeholder for the museum's contact number",
     "haltbar_s": 600,
     "grund": "The manager-outreach idea was explicitly agreed but left unactioned amid the fan chaos, and it remains valid minutes later.",
     "verdict": "hit",
     "need": "followup",
     "need_start": 547
    },
    "openai/gpt-5.6-luna": {
     "lat": 8.4,
     "visible_at": 643.4,
     "cost": 0.00206215,
     "raw": "{\n  \"beobachtung\": \"\\\"Maybe we call the place...\\\" followed by \\\"talk to like the manager\\\" and \\\"tell them... if you could talk to the manager\\\" (09:07-09:20).\",\n  \"vorhersage\": \"They will still need to decide whether to contact the venue about returning or getting permission, likely for the next 20 to 30 minutes.\",\n  \"reasoning\": \"The group explicitly proposed contacting the venue and asking Jason to speak with the manager, making this a durable follow-up rather than a momentary request. The 15-second transcript lag does not materially reduce the usefulness because the plan requires coordination after the immediate street movement. They were reunited with Lacey by 09:46, so the earlier search no longer needs a card. This card may still be useful now unless they already contacted the venue off-camera.\",\n  \"alternativen\": [\n    {\n      \"karte\": \"Find current venue\",\n      \"verworfen_weil\": \"The transcript does not reliably identify the venue, and they may already have left the area.\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"karte\": \"Locate Lacey\",\n      \"verworfen_weil\": \"They found and addressed Lacey by 09:46.\"\n    }\n  ],\n  \"karte\": true,\n  \"kategorie\": \"followup\",\n  \"titel\": \"Venue Follow-Up\",\n  \"zeile\": \"Decide whether to contact the manager about returning.\",\n  \"aktion\": \"Open a follow-up note\",\n  \"optionen\": [\n    \"Call venue\",\n    \"Ask Jason\",\n    \"Skip follow-up\"\n  ],\n  \"haltbar_s\": 1800,\n  \"konfidenz\": 0.79,\n  \"risiko\": \"Annoying if Jason already contacted the venue or the group has abandoned the idea.\",\n  \"grund\": \"The manager-contact plan was explicitly repeated and remains actionable after the group regrouped.\"\n}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "\"Maybe we call the place...\" followed by \"talk to like the manager\" and \"tell them... if you could talk to the manager\" (09:07-09:20).",
     "vorhersage": "They will still need to decide whether to contact the venue about returning or getting permission, likely for the next 20 to 30 minutes.",
     "reasoning": "The group explicitly proposed contacting the venue and asking Jason to speak with the manager, making this a durable follow-up rather than a momentary request. The 15-second transcript lag does not materially reduce the usefulness because the plan requires coordination after the immediate street movement. They were reunited with Lacey by 09:46, so the earlier search no longer needs a card. This card may still be useful now unless they already contacted the venue off-camera.",
     "risiko": "Annoying if Jason already contacted the venue or the group has abandoned the idea.",
     "konfidenz": 0.79,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Find current venue",
       "verworfen_weil": "The transcript does not reliably identify the venue, and they may already have left the area."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Locate Lacey",
       "verworfen_weil": "They found and addressed Lacey by 09:46."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [
      "Call venue",
      "Ask Jason",
      "Skip follow-up"
     ],
     "karte": true,
     "kategorie": "followup",
     "titel": "Venue Follow-Up",
     "zeile": "Decide whether to contact the manager about returning.",
     "aktion": "Open a follow-up note",
     "haltbar_s": 1800,
     "grund": "The manager-contact plan was explicitly repeated and remains actionable after the group regrouped.",
     "verdict": "hit",
     "need": "followup",
     "need_start": 547
    },
    "google/gemini-3.8-flash": {
     "lat": 7.3,
     "visible_at": 642.3,
     "cost": 0.00625875,
     "raw": "{\"beobachtung\": \"[0:09:28] Marlon: 'Alright, where, where's Lacey at?' followed by [0:09:46] Speaker 1: 'Lacey!' and greeting him at [0:09:57].\", \"reasoning\": \"The pre-filter 'aufbruch' likely triggered on the movement phrases while searching for Lacy ('we gotta keep it moving', 'where's Lacey at'). By 10:00 they have already caught up with Lacy on the street and are currently greeting each other and recounting the museum visit. There is no pending departure, destination, or logistics request active at this moment.\", \"alternativen\": [{\"karte\": \"Contact Museum of Sex management\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"Marlon and Jason casually brainstormed calling the manager, but dropped it immediately to meet Lacy without committing to an action.\"}], \"karte\": false, \"grund\": \"The group has already reunited with Lacy and is just chatting; no upcoming plan or transport need has been decided.\"}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "[0:09:28] Marlon: 'Alright, where, where's Lacey at?' followed by [0:09:46] Speaker 1: 'Lacey!' and greeting him at [0:09:57].",
     "vorhersage": "",
     "reasoning": "The pre-filter 'aufbruch' likely triggered on the movement phrases while searching for Lacy ('we gotta keep it moving', 'where's Lacey at'). By 10:00 they have already caught up with Lacy on the street and are currently greeting each other and recounting the museum visit. There is no pending departure, destination, or logistics request active at this moment.",
     "risiko": "",
     "konfidenz": null,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Contact Museum of Sex management",
       "verworfen_weil": "Marlon and Jason casually brainstormed calling the manager, but dropped it immediately to meet Lacy without committing to an action."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [],
     "verdict": "silent",
     "karte": false,
     "grund": "The group has already reunited with Lacy and is just chatting; no upcoming plan or transport need has been decided."
    },
    "openai/gpt-5.6-sol": {
     "lat": 12.3,
     "visible_at": 647.3,
     "cost": 0.0179135,
     "raw": "{\"beobachtung\":\"[0:09:10] Marlon: “What if we talk to like the manager?” and [0:09:20] “Jay, tell them… if you could talk to the manager.”\",\"vorhersage\":\"They will need the museum’s management contact to request filming permission; this remains useful for hours.\",\"reasoning\":\"The group has left, but the promising segment was cut short and they explicitly want management approval. Earlier, staff said at [0:04:33] that content requests should go through their office, so a contact shortcut supports an established next step. The card’s 10–30 second latency does not undermine this long-lived follow-up. It should appear now before the group becomes absorbed in the next activity.\",\"alternativen\":[{\"karte\":\"Directions to next stop\",\"verworfen_weil\":\"No next destination was named.\"},{\"karte\":\"Find Lacy\",\"verworfen_weil\":\"They had already regrouped with Lacy by 0:09:46.\"}],\"karte\":true,\"kategorie\":\"followup\",\"titel\":\"Contact Museum Management\",\"zeile\":\"Request permission to return and film the full segment.\",\"aktion\":\"Open the venue’s management contact page.\",\"optionen\":[\"Open contact page\",\"Remind me later\",\"Dismiss\"],\"haltbar_s\":14400,\"konfidenz\":0.84,\"risiko\":\"Annoying if Jay already contacted management during the unseen transcript gap.\",\"grund\":\"A durable permission follow-up can preserve a segment the group explicitly wants to continue.\"}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "[0:09:10] Marlon: “What if we talk to like the manager?” and [0:09:20] “Jay, tell them… if you could talk to the manager.”",
     "vorhersage": "They will need the museum’s management contact to request filming permission; this remains useful for hours.",
     "reasoning": "The group has left, but the promising segment was cut short and they explicitly want management approval. Earlier, staff said at [0:04:33] that content requests should go through their office, so a contact shortcut supports an established next step. The card’s 10–30 second latency does not undermine this long-lived follow-up. It should appear now before the group becomes absorbed in the next activity.",
     "risiko": "Annoying if Jay already contacted management during the unseen transcript gap.",
     "konfidenz": 0.84,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Directions to next stop",
       "verworfen_weil": "No next destination was named."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Find Lacy",
       "verworfen_weil": "They had already regrouped with Lacy by 0:09:46."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [
      "Open contact page",
      "Remind me later",
      "Dismiss"
     ],
     "karte": true,
     "kategorie": "followup",
     "titel": "Contact Museum Management",
     "zeile": "Request permission to return and film the full segment.",
     "aktion": "Open the venue’s management contact page.",
     "haltbar_s": 14400,
     "grund": "A durable permission follow-up can preserve a segment the group explicitly wants to continue.",
     "verdict": "hit",
     "need": "followup",
     "need_start": 547
    },
    "moonshotai/kimi-k3": {
     "lat": 53.4,
     "visible_at": 688.4,
     "cost": 0.0567939,
     "raw": "{\n \"beobachtung\": \"[0:09:07] Speaker 1: 'Maybe we call the place and be like...' / [0:09:20] Marlon: 'Jay, tell them like, yeah, if you could talk to the manager or whatever' — plus staff at [0:04:29]: 'If you want to make content, you can reach out to our office.'\",\n \"vorhersage\": \"When the card appears (~10:40-11:00) the group is on the street, reunited with Lacy, no new destination set. The delegated task 'call/talk to the manager about filming permission' is still undone and will stay open for several minutes.\",\n \"reasoning\": \"The idea to get streaming permission via the manager/office was explicitly floated and delegated to Jay ~90 seconds ago, then buried by fan photos and the Lacy reunion — a classic open loop that nobody can finish in under 30 seconds. Now is the right moment because the segment loss is fresh and the group has no next plan; later they will likely have moved on mentally. Latency is safe: a phone call or manager talk cannot complete within the 10-30s display delay, so the need will still exist when the card shows. Earlier in the stream staff gave a concrete channel ('reach out to our office'), which makes this actionable rather than speculative. The 'aufbruch' signal is not supported — no departure or destination was announced.\",\n \"alternativen\": [{\"karte\": \"Navigate to Lacy / meetup point\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"Already resolved: 'he's right in front of us' [0:09:33] and 'Lacey!' [0:09:46].\"}, {\"karte\": \"Transport card for next destination\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"No destination announced anywhere in the transcript; 'aufbruch' pre-filter not confirmed.\"}, {\"karte\": \"Note: 'world's first vibrator' segment idea\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"Weaker than the permission follow-up, which actually unlocks the segment.\"}],\n \"karte\": true,\n \"kategorie\": \"followup\",\n \"titel\": \"Museum: ask filming permission\",\n \"zeile\": \"Staff said contact their office — call to arrange streaming permission.\",\n \"aktion\": \"Opens dialer with the museum's office number ([phone number]) so Jay can ask about filming permission.\",\n \"optionen\": [\"Call office now\", \"Remind me in 30 min\", \"Drop it\"],\n \"haltbar_s\": 240,\n \"konfidenz\": 0.55,\n \"risiko\": \"Annoying if Jay already called, if they silently decided to drop the museum, or while they are swarmed by fans.\",\n \"grund\": \"The manager/office follow-up was explicitly delegated but not done, and a silent call shortcut keeps the lost segment recoverable.\"\n}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "[0:09:07] Speaker 1: 'Maybe we call the place and be like...' / [0:09:20] Marlon: 'Jay, tell them like, yeah, if you could talk to the manager or whatever' — plus staff at [0:04:29]: 'If you want to make content, you can reach out to our office.'",
     "vorhersage": "When the card appears (~10:40-11:00) the group is on the street, reunited with Lacy, no new destination set. The delegated task 'call/talk to the manager about filming permission' is still undone and will stay open for several minutes.",
     "reasoning": "The idea to get streaming permission via the manager/office was explicitly floated and delegated to Jay ~90 seconds ago, then buried by fan photos and the Lacy reunion — a classic open loop that nobody can finish in under 30 seconds. Now is the right moment because the segment loss is fresh and the group has no next plan; later they will likely have moved on mentally. Latency is safe: a phone call or manager talk cannot complete within the 10-30s display delay, so the need will still exist when the card shows. Earlier in the stream staff gave a concrete channel ('reach out to our office'), which makes this actionable rather than speculative. The 'aufbruch' signal is not supported — no departure or destination was announced.",
     "risiko": "Annoying if Jay already called, if they silently decided to drop the museum, or while they are swarmed by fans.",
     "konfidenz": 0.55,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Navigate to Lacy / meetup point",
       "verworfen_weil": "Already resolved: 'he's right in front of us' [0:09:33] and 'Lacey!' [0:09:46]."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Transport card for next destination",
       "verworfen_weil": "No destination announced anywhere in the transcript; 'aufbruch' pre-filter not confirmed."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Note: 'world's first vibrator' segment idea",
       "verworfen_weil": "Weaker than the permission follow-up, which actually unlocks the segment."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [
      "Call office now",
      "Remind me in 30 min",
      "Drop it"
     ],
     "karte": true,
     "kategorie": "followup",
     "titel": "Museum: ask filming permission",
     "zeile": "Staff said contact their office — call to arrange streaming permission.",
     "aktion": "Opens dialer with the museum's office number ([phone number]) so Jay can ask about filming permission.",
     "haltbar_s": 240,
     "grund": "The manager/office follow-up was explicitly delegated but not done, and a silent call shortcut keeps the lost segment recoverable.",
     "verdict": "hit",
     "need": "followup",
     "need_start": 547
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "t": 690,
   "signal": "aufbruch",
   "conf": 0.74,
   "seen_until": 675,
   "models": {
    "deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash": {
     "lat": 5.9,
     "visible_at": 700.9,
     "cost": 0.0019461,
     "raw": "{\n  \"beobachtung\": \"\\\"So what's our plan bro? Because...\\\" [0:10:26] and \\\"Okay so what's the plan bro? What's your sugar spot bro?\\\" [0:10:48], followed by \\\"Taxi! Taxi! Taxi!\\\" [0:10:52]\",\n  \"vorhersage\": \"The group has just been kicked out of the museum, has no next destination, and is standing on a NYC sidewalk trying to hail a cab. They will need a concrete next stop and transport for at least the next 5-15 minutes.\",\n  \"reasoning\": \"The pre-filter 'aufbruch' (departure) matches: they were ejected from the museum, regrouped with Lacy, and are now openly asking 'what's the plan' while yelling for a taxi. This is not a sub-30-second task — deciding a destination in NYC with three people and a camera takes minutes, and the taxi is already being hailed. A card arriving 10-30s from now will still land while they're standing on the curb with no destination locked. Earlier in the stream they were inside the museum and the plan was implicit; now it's explicitly open, which is the moment a card is useful. I must not invent a venue, so the card offers generic next-stop categories and a ride option.\",\n  \"alternativen\": [\n    {\n      \"karte\": \"Call the museum manager for promo/return\",\n      \"verworfen_weil\": \"They floated it as an idea ('maybe we call the place') but it's a later follow-up, not the immediate curb-side need.\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"karte\": \"Note the 'world's first vibrator' museum segment as content idea\",\n      \"verworfen_weil\": \"Interesting but not actionable now; they're already moving and the moment has passed.\"\n    }\n  ],\n  \"karte\": true,\n  \"kategorie\": \"transport\",\n  \"titel\": \"Next stop + ride\",\n  \"zeile\": \"No plan yet — pick a next stop and get a cab\",\n  \"aktion\": \"Opens a short list of next-stop options and a ride-hail shortcut\",\n  \"optionen\": [\"Find nearby food spot\", \"Pick a museum/attraction\", \"Call a taxi now\"],\n  \"haltbar_s\": 600,\n  \"konfidenz\": 0.72,\n  \"risiko\": \"Wrong if they already decided a destination in the last 15 seconds or if a fan/taxi interrupts and they move immediately.\",\n  \"grund\": \"They were just kicked out, are asking 'what's the plan', and are already hailing a taxi with no destination set.\"\n}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "\"So what's our plan bro? Because...\" [0:10:26] and \"Okay so what's the plan bro? What's your sugar spot bro?\" [0:10:48], followed by \"Taxi! Taxi! Taxi!\" [0:10:52]",
     "vorhersage": "The group has just been kicked out of the museum, has no next destination, and is standing on a NYC sidewalk trying to hail a cab. They will need a concrete next stop and transport for at least the next 5-15 minutes.",
     "reasoning": "The pre-filter 'aufbruch' (departure) matches: they were ejected from the museum, regrouped with Lacy, and are now openly asking 'what's the plan' while yelling for a taxi. This is not a sub-30-second task — deciding a destination in NYC with three people and a camera takes minutes, and the taxi is already being hailed. A card arriving 10-30s from now will still land while they're standing on the curb with no destination locked. Earlier in the stream they were inside the museum and the plan was implicit; now it's explicitly open, which is the moment a card is useful. I must not invent a venue, so the card offers generic next-stop categories and a ride option.",
     "risiko": "Wrong if they already decided a destination in the last 15 seconds or if a fan/taxi interrupts and they move immediately.",
     "konfidenz": 0.72,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Call the museum manager for promo/return",
       "verworfen_weil": "They floated it as an idea ('maybe we call the place') but it's a later follow-up, not the immediate curb-side need."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Note the 'world's first vibrator' museum segment as content idea",
       "verworfen_weil": "Interesting but not actionable now; they're already moving and the moment has passed."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [
      "Find nearby food spot",
      "Pick a museum/attraction",
      "Call a taxi now"
     ],
     "karte": true,
     "kategorie": "transport",
     "titel": "Next stop + ride",
     "zeile": "No plan yet — pick a next stop and get a cab",
     "aktion": "Opens a short list of next-stop options and a ride-hail shortcut",
     "haltbar_s": 600,
     "grund": "They were just kicked out, are asking 'what's the plan', and are already hailing a taxi with no destination set.",
     "verdict": "hit",
     "need": "transport",
     "need_start": 652
    },
    "z-ai/glm-5.3-flash": {
     "lat": 15.4,
     "visible_at": 710.4,
     "cost": 0.00093095,
     "raw": "{\n \"beobachtung\": \"[0:10:26] Speaker 1: \\\"So what's our plan bro?\\\" and [0:10:48] \\\"Okay so what's the plan bro? What's your sugar spot bro?\\\" / [0:10:50] \\\"Sugar museum or some shit. Y'all should go to the museum.\\\"\",\n \"vorhersage\": \"The group is regrouping after being kicked out of the sex museum and will need a concrete next destination within the next few minutes; the sugar museum was floated but nothing is decided or looked up yet.\",\n \"reasoning\": \"The 'aufbruch' signal fits: they left the museum, met Lacy, and are actively asking what's next. The card becomes visible around 11:30-12:00, when they will likely still be standing around deciding, so a destination card with the suggested option is useful. The sugar museum idea came from a side character and Marlon seemed receptive, but nothing is booked or mapped yet. This is a planning need that persists, unlike the short photo/interview interruptions which are already over.\",\n \"alternativen\": [{\"karte\": \"Call museum manager re: promo\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"That idea was mentioned at 0:09:07 but the group has moved on and it is a vague follow-up, not an actionable tap right now.\"}, {\"karte\": \"Taxi to next stop\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"No destination is fixed yet, so booking a ride would be premature and the 'Taxi!' shout was playful.\"}],\n \"karte\": true,\n \"kategorie\": \"place\",\n \"titel\": \"Next stop: sugar museum?\",\n \"zeile\": \"Side character suggested the sugar museum as next spot\",\n \"aktion\": \"Opens maps with the suggested sugar museum location\",\n \"optionen\": [\"Show sugar museum route\", \"Search other nearby spots\", \"Dismiss\"],\n \"haltbar_s\": 300,\n \"konfidenz\": 0.55,\n \"risiko\": \"If they have already decided on a different destination by the time the card appears, or the sugar museum remark was a joke, the card is noise during a busy crowd scene.\",\n \"grund\": \"The group is explicitly asking for a plan right after leaving the museum, and the sugar museum suggestion is the only concrete candidate worth surfacing as a tappable option.\"\n}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "[0:10:26] Speaker 1: \"So what's our plan bro?\" and [0:10:48] \"Okay so what's the plan bro? What's your sugar spot bro?\" / [0:10:50] \"Sugar museum or some shit. Y'all should go to the museum.\"",
     "vorhersage": "The group is regrouping after being kicked out of the sex museum and will need a concrete next destination within the next few minutes; the sugar museum was floated but nothing is decided or looked up yet.",
     "reasoning": "The 'aufbruch' signal fits: they left the museum, met Lacy, and are actively asking what's next. The card becomes visible around 11:30-12:00, when they will likely still be standing around deciding, so a destination card with the suggested option is useful. The sugar museum idea came from a side character and Marlon seemed receptive, but nothing is booked or mapped yet. This is a planning need that persists, unlike the short photo/interview interruptions which are already over.",
     "risiko": "If they have already decided on a different destination by the time the card appears, or the sugar museum remark was a joke, the card is noise during a busy crowd scene.",
     "konfidenz": 0.55,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Call museum manager re: promo",
       "verworfen_weil": "That idea was mentioned at 0:09:07 but the group has moved on and it is a vague follow-up, not an actionable tap right now."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Taxi to next stop",
       "verworfen_weil": "No destination is fixed yet, so booking a ride would be premature and the 'Taxi!' shout was playful."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [
      "Show sugar museum route",
      "Search other nearby spots",
      "Dismiss"
     ],
     "karte": true,
     "kategorie": "place",
     "titel": "Next stop: sugar museum?",
     "zeile": "Side character suggested the sugar museum as next spot",
     "aktion": "Opens maps with the suggested sugar museum location",
     "haltbar_s": 300,
     "grund": "The group is explicitly asking for a plan right after leaving the museum, and the sugar museum suggestion is the only concrete candidate worth surfacing as a tappable option.",
     "verdict": "hit",
     "need": "place",
     "need_start": 626
    },
    "openai/gpt-5.6-luna": {
     "lat": 7.2,
     "visible_at": 702.2,
     "cost": 0.00215345,
     "raw": "{\n  \"beobachtung\": \"At 10:26, someone asks, \\\"So what's our plan bro?\\\"; at 10:48, \\\"what's the plan bro?\\\"; at 10:52, someone suggests a sugar museum while another calls for a taxi.\",\n  \"vorhersage\": \"When visible, the group will still need to choose a next stop or decide whether to pursue the museum manager, likely for several minutes.\",\n  \"reasoning\": \"The group was kicked out of the previous museum but repeatedly said the segment was worth recovering and discussed contacting its manager. By 10:26 and 10:48 they still had no settled plan, while the sugar museum suggestion remained vague. The taxi call may resolve quickly, but the broader destination decision will survive the card's latency. Earlier in the stream, they were already moving between people and locations, so a concise next-stop choice is more useful than a detailed route.\",\n  \"alternativen\": [\n    {\n      \"karte\": \"Call museum manager\",\n      \"verworfen_weil\": \"The number and contact route are unknown, and the group still needs a general next-stop decision.\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"karte\": \"Find a taxi\",\n      \"verworfen_weil\": \"A taxi was already being hailed and that need may finish before the card appears.\"\n    }\n  ],\n  \"karte\": true,\n  \"kategorie\": \"place\",\n  \"titel\": \"Choose Next Stop\",\n  \"zeile\": \"Pick the next move before the group splits.\",\n  \"aktion\": \"Open a quick next-stop planning panel.\",\n  \"optionen\": [\n    \"Search sugar museum\",\n    \"Contact previous museum\",\n    \"Regroup and plan\"\n  ],\n  \"haltbar_s\": 900,\n  \"konfidenz\": 0.82,\n  \"risiko\": \"The card is annoying if a taxi arrives or the group has already agreed on a destination.\",\n  \"grund\": \"The group has an unresolved, durable planning need rather than a momentary request.\"\n}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "At 10:26, someone asks, \"So what's our plan bro?\"; at 10:48, \"what's the plan bro?\"; at 10:52, someone suggests a sugar museum while another calls for a taxi.",
     "vorhersage": "When visible, the group will still need to choose a next stop or decide whether to pursue the museum manager, likely for several minutes.",
     "reasoning": "The group was kicked out of the previous museum but repeatedly said the segment was worth recovering and discussed contacting its manager. By 10:26 and 10:48 they still had no settled plan, while the sugar museum suggestion remained vague. The taxi call may resolve quickly, but the broader destination decision will survive the card's latency. Earlier in the stream, they were already moving between people and locations, so a concise next-stop choice is more useful than a detailed route.",
     "risiko": "The card is annoying if a taxi arrives or the group has already agreed on a destination.",
     "konfidenz": 0.82,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Call museum manager",
       "verworfen_weil": "The number and contact route are unknown, and the group still needs a general next-stop decision."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Find a taxi",
       "verworfen_weil": "A taxi was already being hailed and that need may finish before the card appears."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [
      "Search sugar museum",
      "Contact previous museum",
      "Regroup and plan"
     ],
     "karte": true,
     "kategorie": "place",
     "titel": "Choose Next Stop",
     "zeile": "Pick the next move before the group splits.",
     "aktion": "Open a quick next-stop planning panel.",
     "haltbar_s": 900,
     "grund": "The group has an unresolved, durable planning need rather than a momentary request.",
     "verdict": "hit",
     "need": "place",
     "need_start": 626
    },
    "google/gemini-3.8-flash": {
     "lat": 8.9,
     "visible_at": 703.9,
     "cost": 0.00731025,
     "raw": "{\"beobachtung\": \"Speaker 1 asks 'what's our plan bro?' and yells 'Taxi! Taxi! Taxi!' (10:26-10:52) right after meeting up with Lacy outside.\", \"reasoning\": \"The group just met up with Lacy on the sidewalk surrounded by fans and has not agreed on a next destination yet. The shout for a taxi was immediately shut down with 'Chill, chill, chill' while they continue bantering. Any ride or routing card would be guesswork and disruptive while Marlon is interacting with fans.\", \"alternativen\": [{\"karte\": \"Call Uber / Hail Taxi\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"No agreed destination yet, and the group told him to chill right after shouting taxi.\"}], \"karte\": false, \"grund\": \"The group has not decided on their next destination and the taxi call was immediately dismissed.\"}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "Speaker 1 asks 'what's our plan bro?' and yells 'Taxi! Taxi! Taxi!' (10:26-10:52) right after meeting up with Lacy outside.",
     "vorhersage": "",
     "reasoning": "The group just met up with Lacy on the sidewalk surrounded by fans and has not agreed on a next destination yet. The shout for a taxi was immediately shut down with 'Chill, chill, chill' while they continue bantering. Any ride or routing card would be guesswork and disruptive while Marlon is interacting with fans.",
     "risiko": "",
     "konfidenz": null,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Call Uber / Hail Taxi",
       "verworfen_weil": "No agreed destination yet, and the group told him to chill right after shouting taxi."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [],
     "verdict": "silent",
     "karte": false,
     "grund": "The group has not decided on their next destination and the taxi call was immediately dismissed."
    },
    "openai/gpt-5.6-sol": {
     "lat": 12.9,
     "visible_at": 707.9,
     "cost": 0.0184885,
     "raw": "{\"beobachtung\":\"[0:09:07] “Maybe we call the place…” and [0:09:20] “tell them… if you could talk to the manager.”\",\"vorhersage\":\"They will need to contact the venue’s office for filming permission before any return; this remains useful for hours or days.\",\"reasoning\":\"The venue explicitly directed them to its office, and the group agreed that contacting a manager was worthwhile. Their immediate destination is still unsettled, so a transport card would likely be premature after the added latency. A follow-up card remains relevant even if they have already started moving. Earlier, they were removed because recording or streaming permission was unclear.\",\"alternativen\":[{\"karte\":\"Directions to the sugar museum\",\"verworfen_weil\":\"The venue name is uncertain, and “taxi” may already have triggered an immediate departure.\"},{\"karte\":\"Find Lacy\",\"verworfen_weil\":\"They reunited with Lacy before the latest transcript segment.\"}],\"karte\":true,\"kategorie\":\"followup\",\"titel\":\"Request venue filming permission\",\"zeile\":\"Contact the office before planning a return.\",\"aktion\":\"Opens a search for the venue’s official contact page.\",\"optionen\":[\"Find official contact\",\"Save for later\",\"Dismiss\"],\"haltbar_s\":86400,\"konfidenz\":0.86,\"risiko\":\"Annoying if someone has already contacted the office or they abandoned the return entirely.\",\"grund\":\"The permission issue is unresolved and will outlast their current departure decision.\"}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "[0:09:07] “Maybe we call the place…” and [0:09:20] “tell them… if you could talk to the manager.”",
     "vorhersage": "They will need to contact the venue’s office for filming permission before any return; this remains useful for hours or days.",
     "reasoning": "The venue explicitly directed them to its office, and the group agreed that contacting a manager was worthwhile. Their immediate destination is still unsettled, so a transport card would likely be premature after the added latency. A follow-up card remains relevant even if they have already started moving. Earlier, they were removed because recording or streaming permission was unclear.",
     "risiko": "Annoying if someone has already contacted the office or they abandoned the return entirely.",
     "konfidenz": 0.86,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Directions to the sugar museum",
       "verworfen_weil": "The venue name is uncertain, and “taxi” may already have triggered an immediate departure."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Find Lacy",
       "verworfen_weil": "They reunited with Lacy before the latest transcript segment."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [
      "Find official contact",
      "Save for later",
      "Dismiss"
     ],
     "karte": true,
     "kategorie": "followup",
     "titel": "Request venue filming permission",
     "zeile": "Contact the office before planning a return.",
     "aktion": "Opens a search for the venue’s official contact page.",
     "haltbar_s": 86400,
     "grund": "The permission issue is unresolved and will outlast their current departure decision.",
     "verdict": "hit",
     "need": "followup",
     "need_start": 547
    },
    "moonshotai/kimi-k3": {
     "lat": 60.5,
     "visible_at": 755.5,
     "cost": 0.0644139,
     "raw": "{\n \"beobachtung\": \"[0:10:48] 'Okay so what's the plan bro?' — [0:10:50] 'Sugar museum or some shit. Y'all should go to the museum.' — [0:10:52] 'Taxi! Taxi! Taxi!'\",\n \"vorhersage\": \"When the card appears (~11:40–12:00), the group will be piling into the hailed taxi and must name a destination; the 'what's the plan' question, already open for ~45 seconds, stays live for another 2–4 minutes until the cab rolls.\",\n \"reasoning\": \"They got kicked out of the museum, regrouped with Lacy, and have asked 'what's the plan' twice with no answer, while a taxi is being hailed right now — so at card-visible time the pressing need is a destination to give the driver. The only concrete suggestion on the table is the 'Sugar Museum,' making a one-tap navigation card a natural fit for this departure moment. The earlier call-the-manager idea (9:07–9:28) looks abandoned since they're leaving, so I demote it to an option instead of the main card. The 15-second transcript gap means they may have just settled on a spot, but an unresolved plan question lasting 45+ seconds very likely outlives the 10–30 second card latency.\",\n \"alternativen\": [{\"karte\": \"Call the museum manager about re-entry\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"They are hailing a taxi and leaving the area; the re-entry negotiation moment has passed, so it is only kept as a secondary option.\"}, {\"karte\": \"Stream-ops warning: staff said no streaming inside\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"They already exited the venue minutes ago; no ongoing need at card time.\"}],\n \"karte\": true,\n \"kategorie\": \"transport\",\n \"titel\": \"Next stop: Sugar Museum?\",\n \"zeile\": \"Taxi's coming — set a destination: Sugar Museum [address] or pick another spot?\",\n \"aktion\": \"Single tap opens Maps navigation from current location to Sugar Museum [address].\",\n \"optionen\": [\"Navigate to Sugar Museum\", \"Call museum about re-entry\", \"Search other spots nearby\"],\n \"haltbar_s\": 240,\n \"konfidenz\": 0.6,\n \"risiko\": \"Wrong or annoying if they already agreed on a destination in the 15 seconds I can't see, or if 'Sugar Museum' was just a bystander's throwaway suggestion they ignored.\",\n \"grund\": \"The group is departing with an unresolved plan and a taxi arriving, so a one-tap destination card lands exactly when they need to tell the driver where to go.\"\n}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "[0:10:48] 'Okay so what's the plan bro?' — [0:10:50] 'Sugar museum or some shit. Y'all should go to the museum.' — [0:10:52] 'Taxi! Taxi! Taxi!'",
     "vorhersage": "When the card appears (~11:40–12:00), the group will be piling into the hailed taxi and must name a destination; the 'what's the plan' question, already open for ~45 seconds, stays live for another 2–4 minutes until the cab rolls.",
     "reasoning": "They got kicked out of the museum, regrouped with Lacy, and have asked 'what's the plan' twice with no answer, while a taxi is being hailed right now — so at card-visible time the pressing need is a destination to give the driver. The only concrete suggestion on the table is the 'Sugar Museum,' making a one-tap navigation card a natural fit for this departure moment. The earlier call-the-manager idea (9:07–9:28) looks abandoned since they're leaving, so I demote it to an option instead of the main card. The 15-second transcript gap means they may have just settled on a spot, but an unresolved plan question lasting 45+ seconds very likely outlives the 10–30 second card latency.",
     "risiko": "Wrong or annoying if they already agreed on a destination in the 15 seconds I can't see, or if 'Sugar Museum' was just a bystander's throwaway suggestion they ignored.",
     "konfidenz": 0.6,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Call the museum manager about re-entry",
       "verworfen_weil": "They are hailing a taxi and leaving the area; the re-entry negotiation moment has passed, so it is only kept as a secondary option."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Stream-ops warning: staff said no streaming inside",
       "verworfen_weil": "They already exited the venue minutes ago; no ongoing need at card time."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [
      "Navigate to Sugar Museum",
      "Call museum about re-entry",
      "Search other spots nearby"
     ],
     "karte": true,
     "kategorie": "transport",
     "titel": "Next stop: Sugar Museum?",
     "zeile": "Taxi's coming — set a destination: Sugar Museum [address] or pick another spot?",
     "aktion": "Single tap opens Maps navigation from current location to Sugar Museum [address].",
     "haltbar_s": 240,
     "grund": "The group is departing with an unresolved plan and a taxi arriving, so a one-tap destination card lands exactly when they need to tell the driver where to go.",
     "verdict": "hit",
     "need": "transport",
     "need_start": 652
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "t": 750,
   "signal": "aufbruch",
   "conf": 0.8,
   "seen_until": 735,
   "models": {
    "deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash": {
     "lat": 5.1,
     "visible_at": 760.1,
     "cost": 0.001870455,
     "raw": "{\n  \"beobachtung\": \"[0:10:26] \\\"What is that? So what's our plan bro? Because...\\\" and [0:11:24] \\\"So what we doing today, bro?\\\" and [0:11:31] \\\"So what we doing?\\\" — repeated open planning questions after being kicked out of the museum.\",\n  \"vorhersage\": \"The group is standing on the street with no agreed next stop; they will keep asking 'what's the plan' for at least several minutes while Jason is still inside talking to the manager, so a card offering concrete next-step options is still relevant when it appears.\",\n  \"reasoning\": \"The pre-filter 'aufbruch' fired, and the transcript confirms the group has just left the museum and is openly asking what to do next. This is not a sub-30-second action like reading chat or taking a photo; it is an unresolved group decision that will persist. The 10–30 second card latency is fine because they are still milling around on the sidewalk. Earlier in the stream they were kicked out and Jason is currently talking to the manager, so the museum re-entry is a live thread, but the immediate need is a plan for the next stop. A card with a few concrete options (museum re-entry, food, transport) fits the moment without inventing specifics.\",\n  \"alternativen\": [\n    {\n      \"karte\": \"Follow-up: Jason talking to museum manager\",\n      \"verworfen_weil\": \"Jason is already handling it in person; a card would duplicate an action already in progress and the group cannot act on it until he returns.\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"karte\": \"Transport: call a taxi\",\n      \"verworfen_weil\": \"They are shouting 'Taxi!' but have not decided a destination, so a transport card would be premature.\"\n    }\n  ],\n  \"karte\": true,\n  \"kategorie\": \"place\",\n  \"titel\": \"Next stop plan\",\n  \"zeile\": \"Pick next stop while Jason talks to manager\",\n  \"aktion\": \"Opens a short list of next-stop options to discuss with the group\",\n  \"optionen\": [\"Wait for Jason\", \"Find food nearby\", \"Head to next spot\"],\n  \"haltbar_s\": 180,\n  \"konfidenz\": 0.72,\n  \"risiko\": \"If Jason returns immediately with a museum re-entry plan, the card becomes redundant or distracting.\",\n  \"grund\": \"The group is openly asking 'what's the plan' on the street with no agreed next stop, so a concrete options card is useful now.\"\n}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "[0:10:26] \"What is that? So what's our plan bro? Because...\" and [0:11:24] \"So what we doing today, bro?\" and [0:11:31] \"So what we doing?\" — repeated open planning questions after being kicked out of the museum.",
     "vorhersage": "The group is standing on the street with no agreed next stop; they will keep asking 'what's the plan' for at least several minutes while Jason is still inside talking to the manager, so a card offering concrete next-step options is still relevant when it appears.",
     "reasoning": "The pre-filter 'aufbruch' fired, and the transcript confirms the group has just left the museum and is openly asking what to do next. This is not a sub-30-second action like reading chat or taking a photo; it is an unresolved group decision that will persist. The 10–30 second card latency is fine because they are still milling around on the sidewalk. Earlier in the stream they were kicked out and Jason is currently talking to the manager, so the museum re-entry is a live thread, but the immediate need is a plan for the next stop. A card with a few concrete options (museum re-entry, food, transport) fits the moment without inventing specifics.",
     "risiko": "If Jason returns immediately with a museum re-entry plan, the card becomes redundant or distracting.",
     "konfidenz": 0.72,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Follow-up: Jason talking to museum manager",
       "verworfen_weil": "Jason is already handling it in person; a card would duplicate an action already in progress and the group cannot act on it until he returns."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Transport: call a taxi",
       "verworfen_weil": "They are shouting 'Taxi!' but have not decided a destination, so a transport card would be premature."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [
      "Wait for Jason",
      "Find food nearby",
      "Head to next spot"
     ],
     "karte": true,
     "kategorie": "place",
     "titel": "Next stop plan",
     "zeile": "Pick next stop while Jason talks to manager",
     "aktion": "Opens a short list of next-stop options to discuss with the group",
     "haltbar_s": 180,
     "grund": "The group is openly asking 'what's the plan' on the street with no agreed next stop, so a concrete options card is useful now.",
     "verdict": "hit",
     "need": "place",
     "need_start": 626
    },
    "z-ai/glm-5.3-flash": {
     "lat": 37.7,
     "visible_at": 792.7,
     "cost": 0.00070539,
     "raw": "{\n \"beobachtung\": \"[0:10:26] Speaker 1: \\\"So what's our plan bro?\\\" / [0:10:48] \\\"Okay so what's the plan bro?\\\" / [0:10:50] Speaker 5: \\\"Sugar museum or some shit. Y'all should go to the museum.\\\" / [0:11:59] \\\"We just need to hop in that enclosed area and reset, bro.\\\" / [0:12:13] \\\"Taxi!\\\"\",\n \"vorhersage\": \"The group is hailing a taxi without a confirmed destination; when the card appears (~12:30+) they will be in or entering the cab needing to tell the driver where to go, a need lasting several minutes.\",\n \"reasoning\": \"They were kicked out of the sex museum, Jet is separately negotiating with the manager, and the group has repeatedly asked 'what's the plan' with only an unconfirmed suggestion of a sugar museum. By card visibility they will likely be in the taxi with no agreed destination, so a card consolidating the options is useful now. Waiting longer risks them defaulting to a random spot mid-ride. The 'aufbruch' signal fits: they are literally leaving and need direction.\",\n \"alternativen\": [{\"karte\": \"Call museum manager re: promo\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"Jet is already handling the manager conversation; a card would duplicate an in-progress task.\"}, {\"karte\": \"Note: world's first vibrator segment\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"Content idea, not an actionable need right now; no one asked to save it.\"}],\n \"karte\": true,\n \"kategorie\": \"transport\",\n \"titel\": \"Where to next?\",\n \"zeile\": \"Taxi is coming — pick a destination\",\n \"aktion\": \"Open map with suggested nearby stops\",\n \"optionen\": [\"Sugar museum\", \"Back to sex museum\", \"Food nearby\"],\n \"haltbar_s\": 300,\n \"konfidenz\": 0.6,\n \"risiko\": \"If they already agreed on a destination in the 15s gap or Jet's manager talk succeeds, the card is noise during a chaotic street scene.\",\n \"grund\": \"The group is departing without a set plan and will need a destination the moment the taxi arrives.\"\n}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "[0:10:26] Speaker 1: \"So what's our plan bro?\" / [0:10:48] \"Okay so what's the plan bro?\" / [0:10:50] Speaker 5: \"Sugar museum or some shit. Y'all should go to the museum.\" / [0:11:59] \"We just need to hop in that enclosed area and reset, bro.\" / [0:12:13] \"Taxi!\"",
     "vorhersage": "The group is hailing a taxi without a confirmed destination; when the card appears (~12:30+) they will be in or entering the cab needing to tell the driver where to go, a need lasting several minutes.",
     "reasoning": "They were kicked out of the sex museum, Jet is separately negotiating with the manager, and the group has repeatedly asked 'what's the plan' with only an unconfirmed suggestion of a sugar museum. By card visibility they will likely be in the taxi with no agreed destination, so a card consolidating the options is useful now. Waiting longer risks them defaulting to a random spot mid-ride. The 'aufbruch' signal fits: they are literally leaving and need direction.",
     "risiko": "If they already agreed on a destination in the 15s gap or Jet's manager talk succeeds, the card is noise during a chaotic street scene.",
     "konfidenz": 0.6,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Call museum manager re: promo",
       "verworfen_weil": "Jet is already handling the manager conversation; a card would duplicate an in-progress task."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Note: world's first vibrator segment",
       "verworfen_weil": "Content idea, not an actionable need right now; no one asked to save it."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [
      "Sugar museum",
      "Back to sex museum",
      "Food nearby"
     ],
     "karte": true,
     "kategorie": "transport",
     "titel": "Where to next?",
     "zeile": "Taxi is coming — pick a destination",
     "aktion": "Open map with suggested nearby stops",
     "haltbar_s": 300,
     "grund": "The group is departing without a set plan and will need a destination the moment the taxi arrives.",
     "verdict": "hit",
     "need": "transport",
     "need_start": 652
    },
    "openai/gpt-5.6-luna": {
     "lat": 9.3,
     "visible_at": 764.3,
     "cost": 0.00220905,
     "raw": "{\n  \"beobachtung\": \"\\\"So what's our plan bro?\\\" [00:10:26] followed by \\\"Right now Jet is talking to the manager\\\" [00:11:32] and \\\"Taxi!\\\" [00:12:13]\",\n  \"vorhersage\": \"When visible, the group will still need to choose whether to wait for museum access, find another stop, or leave by taxi; this may last 10 to 30 minutes.\",\n  \"reasoning\": \"The group has repeatedly asked what to do next and has not settled on a destination. The manager conversation may resolve the museum question, but the broader movement decision will remain after that. The 10-to-30-second card latency makes an immediate reset prompt less useful, while a next-move chooser should still be relevant. Earlier, they were kicked out, considered contacting the manager, and then began looking for a taxi.\",\n  \"alternativen\": [\n    {\n      \"karte\": \"Museum manager follow-up\",\n      \"verworfen_weil\": \"Jet is already speaking with the manager, so the need may resolve before the card appears.\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"karte\": \"Stream reset checklist\",\n      \"verworfen_weil\": \"They mentioned resetting in an enclosed area, but that task may finish within seconds.\"\n    }\n  ],\n  \"karte\": true,\n  \"kategorie\": \"transport\",\n  \"titel\": \"Choose Next Move\",\n  \"zeile\": \"Decide whether to wait, find another stop, or leave by taxi.\",\n  \"aktion\": \"Open a next-move chooser and save the selected plan.\",\n  \"optionen\": [\n    \"Wait for manager\",\n    \"Find another stop\",\n    \"Leave by taxi\"\n  ],\n  \"haltbar_s\": 1800,\n  \"konfidenz\": 0.86,\n  \"risiko\": \"It would be premature if the manager immediately grants re-entry or if the group has already agreed on a destination.\",\n  \"grund\": \"The group is mobile, undecided, and actively considering a taxi while a possible museum re-entry is still unresolved.\"\n}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "\"So what's our plan bro?\" [00:10:26] followed by \"Right now Jet is talking to the manager\" [00:11:32] and \"Taxi!\" [00:12:13]",
     "vorhersage": "When visible, the group will still need to choose whether to wait for museum access, find another stop, or leave by taxi; this may last 10 to 30 minutes.",
     "reasoning": "The group has repeatedly asked what to do next and has not settled on a destination. The manager conversation may resolve the museum question, but the broader movement decision will remain after that. The 10-to-30-second card latency makes an immediate reset prompt less useful, while a next-move chooser should still be relevant. Earlier, they were kicked out, considered contacting the manager, and then began looking for a taxi.",
     "risiko": "It would be premature if the manager immediately grants re-entry or if the group has already agreed on a destination.",
     "konfidenz": 0.86,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Museum manager follow-up",
       "verworfen_weil": "Jet is already speaking with the manager, so the need may resolve before the card appears."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Stream reset checklist",
       "verworfen_weil": "They mentioned resetting in an enclosed area, but that task may finish within seconds."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [
      "Wait for manager",
      "Find another stop",
      "Leave by taxi"
     ],
     "karte": true,
     "kategorie": "transport",
     "titel": "Choose Next Move",
     "zeile": "Decide whether to wait, find another stop, or leave by taxi.",
     "aktion": "Open a next-move chooser and save the selected plan.",
     "haltbar_s": 1800,
     "grund": "The group is mobile, undecided, and actively considering a taxi while a possible museum re-entry is still unresolved.",
     "verdict": "hit",
     "need": "transport",
     "need_start": 652
    },
    "google/gemini-3.8-flash": {
     "lat": 11.2,
     "visible_at": 766.2,
     "cost": 0.008172,
     "raw": "{\n \"beobachtung\": \"At [0:10:52] and [0:12:13] Speaker 1 shouts \\\"Taxi! Taxi!\\\" outside the museum amid a crowd of fans.\",\n \"reasoning\": \"The group is actively street-hailing a yellow cab in Manhattan to escape the swarm of fans, while Jet is concurrently attempting to negotiate re-entry with the museum manager. No agreed destination exists yet, with scattered ideas like a sugar museum or resetting in an enclosed area being floated. In NYC street-hailing, yellow cabs are flagged down in seconds, making any ride-share card redundant or conflicting. Pushing a transport card now would be speculative and unhelpful.\",\n \"alternativen\": [\n  {\"karte\": \"Ride-share hailing (Uber/Lyft)\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"They are flagging street cabs directly and have no set destination yet.\"},\n  {\"karte\": \"Directions to Museum of Ice Cream / Sugar Museum\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"Merely an offhand fan/stream suggestion, not an agreed destination.\"}\n ],\n \"karte\": false,\n \"grund\": \"Street-hailing a cab without a fixed destination requires no assistance.\"\n}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "At [0:10:52] and [0:12:13] Speaker 1 shouts \"Taxi! Taxi!\" outside the museum amid a crowd of fans.",
     "vorhersage": "",
     "reasoning": "The group is actively street-hailing a yellow cab in Manhattan to escape the swarm of fans, while Jet is concurrently attempting to negotiate re-entry with the museum manager. No agreed destination exists yet, with scattered ideas like a sugar museum or resetting in an enclosed area being floated. In NYC street-hailing, yellow cabs are flagged down in seconds, making any ride-share card redundant or conflicting. Pushing a transport card now would be speculative and unhelpful.",
     "risiko": "",
     "konfidenz": null,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Ride-share hailing (Uber/Lyft)",
       "verworfen_weil": "They are flagging street cabs directly and have no set destination yet."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Directions to Museum of Ice Cream / Sugar Museum",
       "verworfen_weil": "Merely an offhand fan/stream suggestion, not an agreed destination."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [],
     "verdict": "silent",
     "karte": false,
     "grund": "Street-hailing a cab without a fixed destination requires no assistance."
    },
    "openai/gpt-5.6-sol": {
     "lat": 5.7,
     "visible_at": 760.7,
     "cost": 0.0140585,
     "raw": "{\"beobachtung\":\"[0:12:13] Speaker 1: “Taxi!” after [0:11:59] “We just need to hop in that enclosed area and reset, bro.”\",\"reasoning\":\"They are already hailing a taxi, an immediate task likely resolved before a card could appear. The transcript lag means the actual group is already 15 seconds beyond the last call, and card latency adds another 10–30 seconds. Their broader destination is still undecided, while Jet is already speaking with the museum manager. A transport card without a confirmed destination would therefore be late and potentially distracting.\",\"alternativen\":[{\"karte\":\"Open ride-hailing app\",\"verworfen_weil\":\"They are actively hailing a taxi and may already have one by card arrival.\"},{\"karte\":\"Choose the next destination\",\"verworfen_weil\":\"No concrete options or group decision are available yet.\"},{\"karte\":\"Follow up with museum manager\",\"verworfen_weil\":\"Jet is already handling that conversation.\"}],\"karte\":false,\"grund\":\"The immediate departure need is already being handled, and no durable unresolved action is clear.\"}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "[0:12:13] Speaker 1: “Taxi!” after [0:11:59] “We just need to hop in that enclosed area and reset, bro.”",
     "vorhersage": "",
     "reasoning": "They are already hailing a taxi, an immediate task likely resolved before a card could appear. The transcript lag means the actual group is already 15 seconds beyond the last call, and card latency adds another 10–30 seconds. Their broader destination is still undecided, while Jet is already speaking with the museum manager. A transport card without a confirmed destination would therefore be late and potentially distracting.",
     "risiko": "",
     "konfidenz": null,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Open ride-hailing app",
       "verworfen_weil": "They are actively hailing a taxi and may already have one by card arrival."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Choose the next destination",
       "verworfen_weil": "No concrete options or group decision are available yet."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Follow up with museum manager",
       "verworfen_weil": "Jet is already handling that conversation."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [],
     "verdict": "silent",
     "karte": false,
     "grund": "The immediate departure need is already being handled, and no durable unresolved action is clear."
    },
    "moonshotai/kimi-k3": {
     "lat": 45.8,
     "visible_at": 800.8,
     "cost": 0.0520446,
     "raw": "{\n \"beobachtung\": \"[0:10:26] Speaker 1: So what's our plan bro? ... [0:11:24] Speaker 1: So what we doing today, bro? ... [0:12:13] Speaker 1: Taxi!\",\n \"vorhersage\": \"When the card appears (~12:40-13:00) the group will be curbside or boarding a taxi with no agreed destination. The 'what's the plan' loop has already run 2.5 minutes and will persist until a destination is picked, likely 2-5 more minutes.\",\n \"reasoning\": \"The plan question has been asked unanswered at least four times since 10:26, so this is not a sub-30-second need. They are hailing a taxi right now, which forces a destination decision within the next 1-3 minutes, exactly when the card lands. The museum re-entry via the manager has been pending since ~9:10 with no resolution, so departure is the likely branch. The 15s transcript lag means they may already be in the cab, which makes a destination card more useful, not less. Earlier context (kicked out at ~4:30, 'hop in that enclosed area and reset' at 11:59) says they want a concrete next spot, not more standing around.\",\n \"alternativen\": [{\"karte\": \"Book Uber card\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"They are already hailing a taxi themselves; booking without a decided destination is premature and double-books transport\"}, {\"karte\": \"Note idea: call museum for promo collab\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"Jet/Jason is already talking to the manager in person right now; nothing to capture that they are not already doing\"}, {\"karte\": \"Museum manager callback info\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"The negotiation is happening live on site; a card with contact info adds nothing in this minute\"}],\n \"karte\": true,\n \"kategorie\": \"place\",\n \"titel\": \"Where to next?\",\n \"zeile\": \"Plan still open — pick a nearby option, tap to navigate or set as cab destination\",\n \"aktion\": \"Opens maps with the chosen option and sets it as the ride destination\",\n \"optionen\": [\"Food near [current location]\", \"Indoor spot to reset\", \"Ride to [hotel]\"],\n \"haltbar_s\": 240,\n \"konfidenz\": 0.6,\n \"risiko\": \"Wrong if the manager re-admits them to the museum in the next minute, or if they already agreed on a destination inside the 15s transcript gap\",\n \"grund\": \"The group has been asking 'what's the plan' for over two minutes while hailing a taxi, so a destination-decision card lands exactly in their decision window.\"\n}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "[0:10:26] Speaker 1: So what's our plan bro? ... [0:11:24] Speaker 1: So what we doing today, bro? ... [0:12:13] Speaker 1: Taxi!",
     "vorhersage": "When the card appears (~12:40-13:00) the group will be curbside or boarding a taxi with no agreed destination. The 'what's the plan' loop has already run 2.5 minutes and will persist until a destination is picked, likely 2-5 more minutes.",
     "reasoning": "The plan question has been asked unanswered at least four times since 10:26, so this is not a sub-30-second need. They are hailing a taxi right now, which forces a destination decision within the next 1-3 minutes, exactly when the card lands. The museum re-entry via the manager has been pending since ~9:10 with no resolution, so departure is the likely branch. The 15s transcript lag means they may already be in the cab, which makes a destination card more useful, not less. Earlier context (kicked out at ~4:30, 'hop in that enclosed area and reset' at 11:59) says they want a concrete next spot, not more standing around.",
     "risiko": "Wrong if the manager re-admits them to the museum in the next minute, or if they already agreed on a destination inside the 15s transcript gap",
     "konfidenz": 0.6,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Book Uber card",
       "verworfen_weil": "They are already hailing a taxi themselves; booking without a decided destination is premature and double-books transport"
      },
      {
       "karte": "Note idea: call museum for promo collab",
       "verworfen_weil": "Jet/Jason is already talking to the manager in person right now; nothing to capture that they are not already doing"
      },
      {
       "karte": "Museum manager callback info",
       "verworfen_weil": "The negotiation is happening live on site; a card with contact info adds nothing in this minute"
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [
      "Food near [current location]",
      "Indoor spot to reset",
      "Ride to [hotel]"
     ],
     "karte": true,
     "kategorie": "place",
     "titel": "Where to next?",
     "zeile": "Plan still open — pick a nearby option, tap to navigate or set as cab destination",
     "aktion": "Opens maps with the chosen option and sets it as the ride destination",
     "haltbar_s": 240,
     "grund": "The group has been asking 'what's the plan' for over two minutes while hailing a taxi, so a destination-decision card lands exactly in their decision window.",
     "verdict": "hit",
     "need": "place",
     "need_start": 626
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "t": 870,
   "signal": "aufnahme_sorge",
   "conf": 0.61,
   "seen_until": 855,
   "models": {
    "deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash": {
     "lat": 5.9,
     "visible_at": 880.9,
     "cost": 0.0021957,
     "raw": "{\n  \"beobachtung\": \"[0:09:07] \\\"Maybe we call the place and be like...\\\" / [0:09:10] \\\"what if we talk to like the manager?\\\" / [0:11:32] \\\"Right now Jet is talking to the manager at the...\\\" / [0:13:50] \\\"Oh, Jay! Good news! Wait, they said no filming?\\\"\",\n  \"vorhersage\": \"The group is mid-negotiation with the museum manager about re-entry / filming permission. When the card appears (14:30–14:31), they will still be standing on the street waiting on Jay's answer and will need a place to log the outcome and next step for at least several minutes.\",\n  \"reasoning\": \"The museum re-entry / manager talk has been the running thread for the last five minutes and is unresolved at the transcript cutoff. It is an announced plan with a pending decision, not a sub-30-second action, so it survives the 10–30s card latency. Earlier in the stream they were already kicked out once and explicitly framed re-entry as 'great promo', so the follow-up matters beyond this moment. A card now can capture the decision point before the group drifts to the next location and forgets who was supposed to call whom.\",\n  \"alternativen\": [\n    {\"karte\": \"Find nearest dispensary to camp at\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"Mentioned as a joke ('I think we camp in the dispensary'), not a real plan yet.\"},\n    {\"karte\": \"Book a taxi / ride\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"They are already hailing taxis on the street; a card adds nothing.\"},\n    {\"karte\": \"Note 'world's first vibrator' segment idea\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"Segment already happened and was discussed; capturing it now is low value.\"}\n  ],\n  \"karte\": true,\n  \"kategorie\": \"followup\",\n  \"titel\": \"Museum re-entry follow-up\",\n  \"zeile\": \"Log manager decision and next step for museum re-entry\",\n  \"aktion\": \"Open a note to record the manager's answer and the agreed next step\",\n  \"optionen\": [\"Log manager answer\", \"Set callback reminder\", \"Note promo angle\"],\n  \"haltbar_s\": 600,\n  \"konfidenz\": 0.62,\n  \"risiko\": \"If Jay already got a clear yes/no and the group immediately moves on, the card is redundant noise on Marlon's phone.\",\n  \"grund\": \"The museum re-entry negotiation is the live unresolved thread and needs a place to land before the group moves on.\"\n}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "[0:09:07] \"Maybe we call the place and be like...\" / [0:09:10] \"what if we talk to like the manager?\" / [0:11:32] \"Right now Jet is talking to the manager at the...\" / [0:13:50] \"Oh, Jay! Good news! Wait, they said no filming?\"",
     "vorhersage": "The group is mid-negotiation with the museum manager about re-entry / filming permission. When the card appears (14:30–14:31), they will still be standing on the street waiting on Jay's answer and will need a place to log the outcome and next step for at least several minutes.",
     "reasoning": "The museum re-entry / manager talk has been the running thread for the last five minutes and is unresolved at the transcript cutoff. It is an announced plan with a pending decision, not a sub-30-second action, so it survives the 10–30s card latency. Earlier in the stream they were already kicked out once and explicitly framed re-entry as 'great promo', so the follow-up matters beyond this moment. A card now can capture the decision point before the group drifts to the next location and forgets who was supposed to call whom.",
     "risiko": "If Jay already got a clear yes/no and the group immediately moves on, the card is redundant noise on Marlon's phone.",
     "konfidenz": 0.62,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Find nearest dispensary to camp at",
       "verworfen_weil": "Mentioned as a joke ('I think we camp in the dispensary'), not a real plan yet."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Book a taxi / ride",
       "verworfen_weil": "They are already hailing taxis on the street; a card adds nothing."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Note 'world's first vibrator' segment idea",
       "verworfen_weil": "Segment already happened and was discussed; capturing it now is low value."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [
      "Log manager answer",
      "Set callback reminder",
      "Note promo angle"
     ],
     "karte": true,
     "kategorie": "followup",
     "titel": "Museum re-entry follow-up",
     "zeile": "Log manager decision and next step for museum re-entry",
     "aktion": "Open a note to record the manager's answer and the agreed next step",
     "haltbar_s": 600,
     "grund": "The museum re-entry negotiation is the live unresolved thread and needs a place to land before the group moves on.",
     "verdict": "hit",
     "need": "followup",
     "need_start": 547
    },
    "z-ai/glm-5.3-flash": {
     "lat": 13.4,
     "visible_at": 888.4,
     "cost": 0.0011991,
     "raw": "{\n \"beobachtung\": \"[0:09:07] Speaker 1: \\\"Maybe we call the place and be like...\\\" / [0:09:10] Marlon: \\\"what if we talk to like the manager? ... That's great promo\\\" / [0:13:41] \\\"Jay is in there right there\\\" / [0:13:57] \\\"Wait, they said no filming?\\\"\",\n \"vorhersage\": \"Jay is inside negotiating with the museum manager about letting the group back in (recording/streaming allowed). When the card becomes visible (~14:40-15:00) the group will still be waiting outside in the crowd for Jay's outcome, and may want a concrete pitch or a call to the museum to support the re-entry attempt. Need likely persists several minutes.\",\n \"reasoning\": \"The group was kicked out for streaming, but immediately agreed that calling the manager for a re-entry as promo is a good idea, and Jay is actively working it right now. The pre-filter's 'aufnahme_sorge' itself is stale — the recording conflict was resolved by leaving — but the followup (manager negotiation / re-entry) is still open and lasts long, making it a good card. Latency of 10-30s is fine since Jay's talk will take minutes. I must not invent a phone number, so the card only offers to open a dialer/notes with placeholders.\",\n \"alternativen\": [{\"karte\": \"Silent card about recording permission rules\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"The recording conflict is already resolved — they left the venue and pivoted to the manager plan, so the need no longer exists at card visibility.\"}, {\"karte\": \"Taxi/transport card to escape the crowd\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"They are actively hailing taxis themselves and the plan is to wait for Jay's news, not to leave yet.\"}, {\"karte\": \"Sugar museum as next stop\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"It was a passing side-character suggestion, not adopted by the group.\"}],\n \"karte\": true,\n \"kategorie\": \"followup\",\n \"titel\": \"Museum manager re-entry pitch\",\n \"zeile\": \"Jay is talking to the manager — support the re-entry ask\",\n \"aktion\": \"Opens a note with a promo-pitch template and a placeholder for the museum's contact number\",\n \"optionen\": [\"Open pitch note\", \"Dial museum [number]\", \"Dismiss\"],\n \"haltbar_s\": 600,\n \"konfidenz\": 0.55,\n \"risiko\": \"If Jay returns with a final yes/no before the card appears, or the group decides to move on to the next spot, the card is noise in an already chaotic street scene.\",\n \"grund\": \"The re-entry-via-manager plan is an open, lasting followup that the group explicitly endorsed, and a silent card can have the pitch ready the moment Jay reports back.\"\n}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "[0:09:07] Speaker 1: \"Maybe we call the place and be like...\" / [0:09:10] Marlon: \"what if we talk to like the manager? ... That's great promo\" / [0:13:41] \"Jay is in there right there\" / [0:13:57] \"Wait, they said no filming?\"",
     "vorhersage": "Jay is inside negotiating with the museum manager about letting the group back in (recording/streaming allowed). When the card becomes visible (~14:40-15:00) the group will still be waiting outside in the crowd for Jay's outcome, and may want a concrete pitch or a call to the museum to support the re-entry attempt. Need likely persists several minutes.",
     "reasoning": "The group was kicked out for streaming, but immediately agreed that calling the manager for a re-entry as promo is a good idea, and Jay is actively working it right now. The pre-filter's 'aufnahme_sorge' itself is stale — the recording conflict was resolved by leaving — but the followup (manager negotiation / re-entry) is still open and lasts long, making it a good card. Latency of 10-30s is fine since Jay's talk will take minutes. I must not invent a phone number, so the card only offers to open a dialer/notes with placeholders.",
     "risiko": "If Jay returns with a final yes/no before the card appears, or the group decides to move on to the next spot, the card is noise in an already chaotic street scene.",
     "konfidenz": 0.55,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Silent card about recording permission rules",
       "verworfen_weil": "The recording conflict is already resolved — they left the venue and pivoted to the manager plan, so the need no longer exists at card visibility."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Taxi/transport card to escape the crowd",
       "verworfen_weil": "They are actively hailing taxis themselves and the plan is to wait for Jay's news, not to leave yet."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Sugar museum as next stop",
       "verworfen_weil": "It was a passing side-character suggestion, not adopted by the group."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [
      "Open pitch note",
      "Dial museum [number]",
      "Dismiss"
     ],
     "karte": true,
     "kategorie": "followup",
     "titel": "Museum manager re-entry pitch",
     "zeile": "Jay is talking to the manager — support the re-entry ask",
     "aktion": "Opens a note with a promo-pitch template and a placeholder for the museum's contact number",
     "haltbar_s": 600,
     "grund": "The re-entry-via-manager plan is an open, lasting followup that the group explicitly endorsed, and a silent card can have the pitch ready the moment Jay reports back.",
     "verdict": "hit",
     "need": "followup",
     "need_start": 547
    },
    "openai/gpt-5.6-luna": {
     "lat": 11.0,
     "visible_at": 886.0,
     "cost": 0.0027274,
     "raw": "{\n  \"beobachtung\": \"\\\"Wait, they said no filming?\\\" [14:13:50]\",\n  \"vorhersage\": \"The group will need to confirm filming permission with the manager before continuing, likely for several minutes or until they leave.\",\n  \"reasoning\": \"The venue previously warned them against streaming or recording, and the group was removed after disputing that rule. They are now approaching a manager and considering re-entry, so recording permission is an immediate operational issue. The 10-to-30-second display delay still falls within the manager conversation and prevents accidental continued filming. Earlier discussion shows they specifically wanted to negotiate access because the segment was valuable.\",\n  \"alternativen\": [\n    {\n      \"karte\": \"Taxi or transport plan\",\n      \"verworfen_weil\": \"Their destination remains uncertain while the manager negotiation is active.\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"karte\": \"Museum follow-up note\",\n      \"verworfen_weil\": \"The permission issue must be resolved before a later follow-up matters.\"\n    }\n  ],\n  \"karte\": true,\n  \"kategorie\": \"stream_ops\",\n  \"titel\": \"Recording Permission\",\n  \"zeile\": \"Confirm filming rules before entering or continuing.\",\n  \"aktion\": \"Opens recording controls and permission note.\",\n  \"optionen\": [\n    \"Pause recording\",\n    \"Ask manager\",\n    \"Leave venue\"\n  ],\n  \"haltbar_s\": 1800,\n  \"konfidenz\": 0.88,\n  \"risiko\": \"It may be annoying if permission was already granted or recording has already stopped.\",\n  \"grund\": \"The group is actively negotiating with a venue after being told filming was not allowed.\"\n}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "\"Wait, they said no filming?\" [14:13:50]",
     "vorhersage": "The group will need to confirm filming permission with the manager before continuing, likely for several minutes or until they leave.",
     "reasoning": "The venue previously warned them against streaming or recording, and the group was removed after disputing that rule. They are now approaching a manager and considering re-entry, so recording permission is an immediate operational issue. The 10-to-30-second display delay still falls within the manager conversation and prevents accidental continued filming. Earlier discussion shows they specifically wanted to negotiate access because the segment was valuable.",
     "risiko": "It may be annoying if permission was already granted or recording has already stopped.",
     "konfidenz": 0.88,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Taxi or transport plan",
       "verworfen_weil": "Their destination remains uncertain while the manager negotiation is active."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Museum follow-up note",
       "verworfen_weil": "The permission issue must be resolved before a later follow-up matters."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [
      "Pause recording",
      "Ask manager",
      "Leave venue"
     ],
     "karte": true,
     "kategorie": "stream_ops",
     "titel": "Recording Permission",
     "zeile": "Confirm filming rules before entering or continuing.",
     "aktion": "Opens recording controls and permission note.",
     "haltbar_s": 1800,
     "grund": "The group is actively negotiating with a venue after being told filming was not allowed.",
     "verdict": "late",
     "late_by": 613,
     "need": "stream_ops",
     "need_start": 246
    },
    "google/gemini-3.8-flash": {
     "lat": 9.2,
     "visible_at": 884.2,
     "cost": 0.007548,
     "raw": "{\"beobachtung\": \"Lacy tries to intervene with the venue staff at [0:14:13] ('I got this, yo. Guys, don't worry. I'll tell him it's Lacey here, guys. Hey, boss.') after they were stopped for filming inside the Museum of Sex.\", \"reasoning\": \"The group was kicked out for streaming and Jay/Lacy are currently negotiating in person at the door. At 14:30+ latency, Lacy is already actively speaking to venue staff live to see if they can get permission. Popping up press office contact info or recording policy cards while they are engaged in an active face-to-face social encounter is distracting and unnecessary.\", \"alternativen\": [{\"karte\": \"Museum of Sex filming/press inquiry contact card\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"They are handling access live at the door right now, and formal PR requests take days rather than resolving on the fly.\"}], \"karte\": false, \"grund\": \"The streamers are handling the venue filming permission in person right now, so any card would be an unhelpful distraction.\"}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "Lacy tries to intervene with the venue staff at [0:14:13] ('I got this, yo. Guys, don't worry. I'll tell him it's Lacey here, guys. Hey, boss.') after they were stopped for filming inside the Museum of Sex.",
     "vorhersage": "",
     "reasoning": "The group was kicked out for streaming and Jay/Lacy are currently negotiating in person at the door. At 14:30+ latency, Lacy is already actively speaking to venue staff live to see if they can get permission. Popping up press office contact info or recording policy cards while they are engaged in an active face-to-face social encounter is distracting and unnecessary.",
     "risiko": "",
     "konfidenz": null,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Museum of Sex filming/press inquiry contact card",
       "verworfen_weil": "They are handling access live at the door right now, and formal PR requests take days rather than resolving on the fly."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [],
     "verdict": "silent",
     "karte": false,
     "grund": "The streamers are handling the venue filming permission in person right now, so any card would be an unhelpful distraction."
    },
    "openai/gpt-5.6-sol": {
     "lat": 7.4,
     "visible_at": 882.4,
     "cost": 0.016686,
     "raw": "{\"beobachtung\":\"[0:13:50] Speaker 1: “Good news! Wait, they said no filming?” followed by [0:14:04] “they got my...”\",\"reasoning\":\"The filming concern is already being handled directly by Jay and museum staff. By the time a card appears, the group will probably have heard the outcome or exchanged contact details. Earlier, staff clearly stopped the recording and suggested contacting the office, and the group immediately pursued that route. A card now would duplicate an active conversation rather than solve a lasting need.\",\"alternativen\":[{\"karte\":\"Museum filming follow-up\",\"verworfen_weil\":\"Jay appears to have already spoken with management and possibly provided his contact information.\"},{\"karte\":\"Stop recording reminder\",\"verworfen_weil\":\"They have already left the museum, so the warning is no longer actionable.\"}],\"karte\":false,\"grund\":\"The recording-permission issue is being resolved in person and will likely be settled before a card appears.\"}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "[0:13:50] Speaker 1: “Good news! Wait, they said no filming?” followed by [0:14:04] “they got my...”",
     "vorhersage": "",
     "reasoning": "The filming concern is already being handled directly by Jay and museum staff. By the time a card appears, the group will probably have heard the outcome or exchanged contact details. Earlier, staff clearly stopped the recording and suggested contacting the office, and the group immediately pursued that route. A card now would duplicate an active conversation rather than solve a lasting need.",
     "risiko": "",
     "konfidenz": null,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Museum filming follow-up",
       "verworfen_weil": "Jay appears to have already spoken with management and possibly provided his contact information."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Stop recording reminder",
       "verworfen_weil": "They have already left the museum, so the warning is no longer actionable."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [],
     "verdict": "silent",
     "karte": false,
     "grund": "The recording-permission issue is being resolved in person and will likely be settled before a card appears."
    },
    "moonshotai/kimi-k3": {
     "lat": 80.1,
     "visible_at": 955.1,
     "cost": 0.0814056,
     "raw": "{\n \"beobachtung\": \"[0:04:33] staff: 'you can reach out to our office' after warning them not to stream; [0:09:07] 'Maybe we call the place' and [0:09:20] 'that's a good idea, bro' — the group wants to film there properly but got kicked out.\",\n \"vorhersage\": \"When the card appears (~14:40–15:00), Jason's manager call will likely just be ending; either outcome, nobody has captured the durable follow-up of contacting the venue's office about an official filming arrangement. That need persists for hours.\",\n \"reasoning\": \"The live permission question is being handled by Jason on the phone with the boss right now, so any 'ask permission' or 'no streaming inside' card would duplicate what the group hears out loud within seconds and could state terms the manager overrides. What nobody is doing is capturing the cleanup item: staff explicitly named the office as the route for filming permission, and the group loved the segment and wants to do it right. This card is useful whether they re-enter today or not, so the 10–30s latency and the pending negotiation don't hurt it. Earlier they were kicked out despite claiming 'just recording,' so the official channel is the real fix.\",\n \"alternativen\": [\n  {\"karte\": \"Reminder: no streaming inside museum\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"Jason is negotiating exact terms live; the group will know the outcome within ~30s and the card could contradict whatever the manager allows.\"},\n  {\"karte\": \"Backup spot: 'Sugar museum' suggestion\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"Vague bystander chatter, and moot if the manager lets them back in — the museum decision is still pending.\"}\n ],\n \"karte\": true,\n \"kategorie\": \"followup\",\n \"titel\": \"Museum: arrange filming permit\",\n \"zeile\": \"Staff said contact their office about filming. Save as follow-up?\",\n \"aktion\": \"Saves a follow-up note to contact the venue's office about filming permission, with an optional reminder.\",\n \"optionen\": [\"Save follow-up\", \"Save + remind tomorrow\", \"Dismiss\"],\n \"haltbar_s\": 14400,\n \"konfidenz\": 0.55,\n \"risiko\": \"Feels redundant if Jason's call secures full filming permission right now; in the street chaos it may simply be ignored, which is acceptable.\",\n \"grund\": \"The live permission question resolves itself through Jason, but the office-contact follow-up nobody captured is durable cleanup work worth one silent card.\"\n}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "[0:04:33] staff: 'you can reach out to our office' after warning them not to stream; [0:09:07] 'Maybe we call the place' and [0:09:20] 'that's a good idea, bro' — the group wants to film there properly but got kicked out.",
     "vorhersage": "When the card appears (~14:40–15:00), Jason's manager call will likely just be ending; either outcome, nobody has captured the durable follow-up of contacting the venue's office about an official filming arrangement. That need persists for hours.",
     "reasoning": "The live permission question is being handled by Jason on the phone with the boss right now, so any 'ask permission' or 'no streaming inside' card would duplicate what the group hears out loud within seconds and could state terms the manager overrides. What nobody is doing is capturing the cleanup item: staff explicitly named the office as the route for filming permission, and the group loved the segment and wants to do it right. This card is useful whether they re-enter today or not, so the 10–30s latency and the pending negotiation don't hurt it. Earlier they were kicked out despite claiming 'just recording,' so the official channel is the real fix.",
     "risiko": "Feels redundant if Jason's call secures full filming permission right now; in the street chaos it may simply be ignored, which is acceptable.",
     "konfidenz": 0.55,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Reminder: no streaming inside museum",
       "verworfen_weil": "Jason is negotiating exact terms live; the group will know the outcome within ~30s and the card could contradict whatever the manager allows."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Backup spot: 'Sugar museum' suggestion",
       "verworfen_weil": "Vague bystander chatter, and moot if the manager lets them back in — the museum decision is still pending."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [
      "Save follow-up",
      "Save + remind tomorrow",
      "Dismiss"
     ],
     "karte": true,
     "kategorie": "followup",
     "titel": "Museum: arrange filming permit",
     "zeile": "Staff said contact their office about filming. Save as follow-up?",
     "aktion": "Saves a follow-up note to contact the venue's office about filming permission, with an optional reminder.",
     "haltbar_s": 14400,
     "grund": "The live permission question resolves itself through Jason, but the office-contact follow-up nobody captured is durable cleanup work worth one silent card.",
     "verdict": "hit",
     "need": "followup",
     "need_start": 547
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "t": 930,
   "signal": "aufbruch",
   "conf": 0.63,
   "seen_until": 915,
   "models": {
    "deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash": {
     "lat": 54.7,
     "visible_at": 989.7,
     "cost": 0.00093,
     "raw": "{\n  \"beobachtung\": \"At [0:14:50] Marlon says \\\"We can't get in here. They can't get in here. Go, go, go, go, go, go, go.\\\" and at [0:15:02] \\\"Let us in, let us in.\\\" — the group is fleeing a chaotic crowd and trying to enter a dispensary as a safe reset point.\",\n  \"vorhersage\": \"When the card becomes visible (10–30s after 15:30), the group will still be in or just inside the dispensary, needing a moment to regroup, catch their breath, and decide the next move. The need for a safe reset spot and a plan will persist for at least several minutes.\",\n  \"reasoning\": \"The pre-filter signal \\\"aufbruch\\\" fired, but the transcript shows the opposite: the group is not departing, they are seeking refuge. The chaos with Lacey confronting someone and the crowd chasing them means the immediate need is safety and regrouping, not a new destination. A card suggesting a next activity would be premature and annoying while they are still catching their breath. However, a card that helps them lock in the current safe spot and plan the next step could be useful once they are inside. The latency means the card will appear after they have likely entered the dispensary, so it should address the post-entry moment: confirming the reset and planning. Earlier in the stream, they were kicked out of a museum and lost their cameraman, so stability is a recurring need.\",\n  \"alternativen\": [\n    {\n      \"karte\": \"Call the museum manager for a re-entry\",\n      \"verworfen_weil\": \"That was discussed earlier but is now stale; the group has moved on and is dealing with an immediate crowd issue.\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"karte\": \"Book a taxi to the next location\",\n      \"verworfen_weil\": \"They are not ready to leave; they just found a safe spot and need to regroup first.\"\n    }\n  ],\n  \"karte\": true,\n  \"kategorie\": \"followup\",\n  \"titel\": \"Reset at dispensary\",\n  \"zeile\": \"Safe spot found. Plan next move?\",\n  \"aktion\": \"Opens a note with options for next steps\",\n  \"optionen\": [\n    \"Stay here 10 min\",\n    \"Find food nearby\",\n    \"Check stream status\"\n  ],\n  \"haltbar_s\": 300,\n  \"konfidenz\": 0.7,\n  \"risiko\": \"If the group is still in immediate danger or has already left the dispensary, this card could be irrelevant or distracting.\",\n  \"grund\": \"The group just escaped a chaotic crowd and entered a dispensary; they need a moment to reset and decide next steps.\"\n}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "At [0:14:50] Marlon says \"We can't get in here. They can't get in here. Go, go, go, go, go, go, go.\" and at [0:15:02] \"Let us in, let us in.\" — the group is fleeing a chaotic crowd and trying to enter a dispensary as a safe reset point.",
     "vorhersage": "When the card becomes visible (10–30s after 15:30), the group will still be in or just inside the dispensary, needing a moment to regroup, catch their breath, and decide the next move. The need for a safe reset spot and a plan will persist for at least several minutes.",
     "reasoning": "The pre-filter signal \"aufbruch\" fired, but the transcript shows the opposite: the group is not departing, they are seeking refuge. The chaos with Lacey confronting someone and the crowd chasing them means the immediate need is safety and regrouping, not a new destination. A card suggesting a next activity would be premature and annoying while they are still catching their breath. However, a card that helps them lock in the current safe spot and plan the next step could be useful once they are inside. The latency means the card will appear after they have likely entered the dispensary, so it should address the post-entry moment: confirming the reset and planning. Earlier in the stream, they were kicked out of a museum and lost their cameraman, so stability is a recurring need.",
     "risiko": "If the group is still in immediate danger or has already left the dispensary, this card could be irrelevant or distracting.",
     "konfidenz": 0.7,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Call the museum manager for a re-entry",
       "verworfen_weil": "That was discussed earlier but is now stale; the group has moved on and is dealing with an immediate crowd issue."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Book a taxi to the next location",
       "verworfen_weil": "They are not ready to leave; they just found a safe spot and need to regroup first."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [
      "Stay here 10 min",
      "Find food nearby",
      "Check stream status"
     ],
     "karte": true,
     "kategorie": "followup",
     "titel": "Reset at dispensary",
     "zeile": "Safe spot found. Plan next move?",
     "aktion": "Opens a note with options for next steps",
     "haltbar_s": 300,
     "grund": "The group just escaped a chaotic crowd and entered a dispensary; they need a moment to reset and decide next steps.",
     "verdict": "hit",
     "need": "followup",
     "need_start": 547
    },
    "z-ai/glm-5.3-flash": {
     "lat": 3.3,
     "visible_at": 938.3,
     "cost": 0.0009733,
     "raw": "{\n \"beobachtung\": \"Chaos outside a dispensary: [0:14:50] Marlon: 'We can't get in here... Go, go, go' and [0:15:06] 'Let us in, let us in' — the group is crowding an entrance while Jay negotiates re-entry to the museum.\",\n \"reasoning\": \"The aufbruch signal likely fired on the 'we gotta move' shouts around 0:14:32, but by the time a card would appear the group is stationary at the dispensary door, not departing anywhere specific. The re-entry negotiation is already being handled live by Jay, so a booking/call card would duplicate in-progress action. Nothing in the transcript creates a durable need — no confirmed destination, booking, or plan requiring a tap.\",\n \"alternativen\": [{\"karte\": \"Call museum manager re-entry\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"Jay is already negotiating with staff in real time; a card would be redundant and stale\"}, {\"karte\": \"Plan next stop: sugar museum\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"Only a passing suggestion from a bystander at 0:10:50, never confirmed as the plan\"}],\n \"karte\": false,\n \"grund\": \"The group is mid-negotiation at a doorway with no confirmed departure or destination, so no card need exists when it would become visible.\"\n}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "Chaos outside a dispensary: [0:14:50] Marlon: 'We can't get in here... Go, go, go' and [0:15:06] 'Let us in, let us in' — the group is crowding an entrance while Jay negotiates re-entry to the museum.",
     "vorhersage": "",
     "reasoning": "The aufbruch signal likely fired on the 'we gotta move' shouts around 0:14:32, but by the time a card would appear the group is stationary at the dispensary door, not departing anywhere specific. The re-entry negotiation is already being handled live by Jay, so a booking/call card would duplicate in-progress action. Nothing in the transcript creates a durable need — no confirmed destination, booking, or plan requiring a tap.",
     "risiko": "",
     "konfidenz": null,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Call museum manager re-entry",
       "verworfen_weil": "Jay is already negotiating with staff in real time; a card would be redundant and stale"
      },
      {
       "karte": "Plan next stop: sugar museum",
       "verworfen_weil": "Only a passing suggestion from a bystander at 0:10:50, never confirmed as the plan"
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [],
     "verdict": "silent",
     "karte": false,
     "grund": "The group is mid-negotiation at a doorway with no confirmed departure or destination, so no card need exists when it would become visible."
    },
    "openai/gpt-5.6-luna": {
     "lat": 8.4,
     "visible_at": 943.4,
     "cost": 0.0024167,
     "raw": "{\n  \"beobachtung\": \"At 00:10:26, 'So what's our plan bro?' and at 00:14:54, 'Yeah, we have to get in here.'\",\n  \"vorhersage\": \"When visible, the group will still need to decide whether to pursue the museum, reset somewhere quieter, or move on; this uncertainty may last 20 to 40 minutes.\",\n  \"reasoning\": \"The group has repeatedly asked for a plan while being moved around and negotiating re-entry after being kicked out. Their current attempt to enter another venue may resolve briefly, but the broader next-stop decision will remain afterward. The delayed card should avoid reacting to momentary movement and instead support the persistent planning problem. Earlier comments about overstimulation make a quieter reset option relevant.\",\n  \"alternativen\": [\n    {\n      \"karte\": \"Museum follow-up\",\n      \"verworfen_weil\": \"The manager's response is still uncertain, and the group may not want to wait.\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"karte\": \"Find quiet reset spot\",\n      \"verworfen_weil\": \"Useful but too narrow if they successfully enter the current venue.\"\n    }\n  ],\n  \"karte\": true,\n  \"kategorie\": \"place\",\n  \"titel\": \"Choose Next Move\",\n  \"zeile\": \"Pick a reset, museum follow-up, or next location.\",\n  \"aktion\": \"Open a next-stop planner with map and follow-up choices.\",\n  \"optionen\": [\n    \"Check museum update\",\n    \"Find quiet reset\",\n    \"Choose next location\"\n  ],\n  \"haltbar_s\": 2400,\n  \"konfidenz\": 0.79,\n  \"risiko\": \"Annoying if they have already settled inside a venue or received a confirmed museum decision.\",\n  \"grund\": \"The group has an unresolved, repeatedly stated need for a plan that will outlast the immediate attempt to enter the current venue.\"\n}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "At 00:10:26, 'So what's our plan bro?' and at 00:14:54, 'Yeah, we have to get in here.'",
     "vorhersage": "When visible, the group will still need to decide whether to pursue the museum, reset somewhere quieter, or move on; this uncertainty may last 20 to 40 minutes.",
     "reasoning": "The group has repeatedly asked for a plan while being moved around and negotiating re-entry after being kicked out. Their current attempt to enter another venue may resolve briefly, but the broader next-stop decision will remain afterward. The delayed card should avoid reacting to momentary movement and instead support the persistent planning problem. Earlier comments about overstimulation make a quieter reset option relevant.",
     "risiko": "Annoying if they have already settled inside a venue or received a confirmed museum decision.",
     "konfidenz": 0.79,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Museum follow-up",
       "verworfen_weil": "The manager's response is still uncertain, and the group may not want to wait."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Find quiet reset spot",
       "verworfen_weil": "Useful but too narrow if they successfully enter the current venue."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [
      "Check museum update",
      "Find quiet reset",
      "Choose next location"
     ],
     "karte": true,
     "kategorie": "place",
     "titel": "Choose Next Move",
     "zeile": "Pick a reset, museum follow-up, or next location.",
     "aktion": "Open a next-stop planner with map and follow-up choices.",
     "haltbar_s": 2400,
     "grund": "The group has an unresolved, repeatedly stated need for a plan that will outlast the immediate attempt to enter the current venue.",
     "verdict": "repeat",
     "need": "place",
     "need_start": 626
    },
    "google/gemini-3.8-flash": {
     "lat": 9.2,
     "visible_at": 944.2,
     "cost": 0.007965,
     "raw": "{\"beobachtung\": \"Marlon at [0:14:50]–[0:15:13]: 'We can't get in here... Wait, is this a dispensary? Please let us in!'\", \"reasoning\": \"The group is being swarmed by stream snipers on the street and is actively ducking into a nearby store/dispensary to seek immediate cover. There is no agreed-upon destination, booking request, or long-term plan in play right now. Pushing a card while Marlon is physically escaping a crowd and negotiating entry with store staff would be an unwelcome distraction.\", \"alternativen\": [{\"karte\": \"Call Uber / Hail ride\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"No specific destination has been stated, and hailing a rideshare into an active crowd creates more chaos than ducking inside.\"}, {\"karte\": \"Directions to Museum of Ice Cream / Sugar Museum\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"Only mentioned in passing earlier and abandoned in favor of evading the crowd.\"}], \"karte\": false, \"grund\": \"The group is in the middle of a chaotic crowd evasion ducking into a store, with no settled plan or clear need for a phone card.\"}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "Marlon at [0:14:50]–[0:15:13]: 'We can't get in here... Wait, is this a dispensary? Please let us in!'",
     "vorhersage": "",
     "reasoning": "The group is being swarmed by stream snipers on the street and is actively ducking into a nearby store/dispensary to seek immediate cover. There is no agreed-upon destination, booking request, or long-term plan in play right now. Pushing a card while Marlon is physically escaping a crowd and negotiating entry with store staff would be an unwelcome distraction.",
     "risiko": "",
     "konfidenz": null,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Call Uber / Hail ride",
       "verworfen_weil": "No specific destination has been stated, and hailing a rideshare into an active crowd creates more chaos than ducking inside."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Directions to Museum of Ice Cream / Sugar Museum",
       "verworfen_weil": "Only mentioned in passing earlier and abandoned in favor of evading the crowd."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [],
     "verdict": "silent",
     "karte": false,
     "grund": "The group is in the middle of a chaotic crowd evasion ducking into a store, with no settled plan or clear need for a phone card."
    },
    "openai/gpt-5.6-sol": {
     "lat": 6.6,
     "visible_at": 941.6,
     "cost": 0.017371,
     "raw": "{\"beobachtung\":\"[0:14:50] Marlon: “We can't get in here... Go, go, go,” followed by [0:15:06] “Let us in, let us in.”\",\"reasoning\":\"They are reacting to a crowd and trying to enter a nearby place, so the immediate need is changing second by second. Because the transcript is already 15 seconds behind and the card adds another 10–30 seconds, any navigation or regrouping prompt would likely arrive after they have entered, moved on, or chosen another option. Earlier they repeatedly discussed needing a plan, but no destination was agreed upon, and Jason was already handling the museum conversation. A card now would distract during a fast-moving situation without adding reliable information.\",\"alternativen\":[{\"karte\":\"Find a quiet regroup spot\",\"verworfen_weil\":\"Their location and access situation are changing too quickly for a delayed card.\"},{\"karte\":\"Follow up on museum filming\",\"verworfen_weil\":\"Jason already contacted the manager, so the task is actively owned.\"}],\"karte\":false,\"grund\":\"The departure signal reflects an immediate crowd-avoidance maneuver that will likely resolve before a card appears.\"}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "[0:14:50] Marlon: “We can't get in here... Go, go, go,” followed by [0:15:06] “Let us in, let us in.”",
     "vorhersage": "",
     "reasoning": "They are reacting to a crowd and trying to enter a nearby place, so the immediate need is changing second by second. Because the transcript is already 15 seconds behind and the card adds another 10–30 seconds, any navigation or regrouping prompt would likely arrive after they have entered, moved on, or chosen another option. Earlier they repeatedly discussed needing a plan, but no destination was agreed upon, and Jason was already handling the museum conversation. A card now would distract during a fast-moving situation without adding reliable information.",
     "risiko": "",
     "konfidenz": null,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Find a quiet regroup spot",
       "verworfen_weil": "Their location and access situation are changing too quickly for a delayed card."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Follow up on museum filming",
       "verworfen_weil": "Jason already contacted the manager, so the task is actively owned."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [],
     "verdict": "silent",
     "karte": false,
     "grund": "The departure signal reflects an immediate crowd-avoidance maneuver that will likely resolve before a card appears."
    },
    "moonshotai/kimi-k3": {
     "lat": 221.0,
     "visible_at": 1156.0,
     "cost": 0.0483825,
     "raw": "{\n \"beobachtung\": \"[0:10:26] Speaker 1: 'So what's our plan bro?' · [0:11:24] 'So what we doing today, bro?' · [0:11:59] 'We just need to hop in that enclosed area and reset' · [0:14:58] 'Wait, is this a dispensary? Please let us in!'\",\n \"vorhersage\": \"In 10-30s the group will be inside the dispensary regrouping after fleeing the street mob. The 'what's the plan' question, already asked four times in five minutes, will resurface as soon as they settle and stay open until they pick a destination (likely 10-20 min).\",\n \"reasoning\": \"Now is the moment they explicitly said they needed: an enclosed spot to reset, and the dispensary is it. The card lands at 15:40-16:00, right as they catch their breath inside, which is exactly when the next-stop decision happens. Waiting longer just extends the planless drifting that has dominated the last five minutes. From earlier: the museum re-entry fell through ('Wait, they said no filming?'), so they need a new destination, and the only concrete idea on the table is the fan-suggested 'sugar museum' at 0:10:50. Confidence is moderate because that suggestion was never adopted by the group, so the card is framed as an option, not a decision.\",\n \"alternativen\": [\n  {\"karte\": \"Ride-hailing card for leaving the dispensary\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"No destination chosen yet, the group has walked everywhere for four hours, and the 'Taxi!' shouts were bits, not real intent.\"},\n  {\"karte\": \"Follow-up: call the museum's office about filming permission\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"Jason already spoke to the manager in person and the outcome was 'no filming' — the thread is closed.\"},\n  {\"karte\": \"Food nearby card\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"No hunger signal anywhere in hour 4; pure speculation.\"}\n ],\n \"karte\": true,\n \"kategorie\": \"place\",\n \"titel\": \"Next stop: Sugar Museum?\",\n \"zeile\": \"Fan idea from earlier. Search Maps and get a walking route when you head out.\",\n \"aktion\": \"Opens Maps search for 'sugar museum' nearby with walking directions to the top result.\",\n \"optionen\": [\"Search & route\", \"Food nearby instead\", \"Dismiss\"],\n \"haltbar_s\": 900,\n \"konfidenz\": 0.45,\n \"risiko\": \"Wrong if they already settled on a plan or decide to stay at the dispensary; the sugar museum was a fan's offhand suggestion the group never acknowledged, so it may read as random.\",\n \"grund\": \"They have asked 'what's the plan' four times in five minutes and are ducking into the dispensary specifically to reset — that is exactly when a concrete, dismissible next-stop option helps.\"\n}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "[0:10:26] Speaker 1: 'So what's our plan bro?' · [0:11:24] 'So what we doing today, bro?' · [0:11:59] 'We just need to hop in that enclosed area and reset' · [0:14:58] 'Wait, is this a dispensary? Please let us in!'",
     "vorhersage": "In 10-30s the group will be inside the dispensary regrouping after fleeing the street mob. The 'what's the plan' question, already asked four times in five minutes, will resurface as soon as they settle and stay open until they pick a destination (likely 10-20 min).",
     "reasoning": "Now is the moment they explicitly said they needed: an enclosed spot to reset, and the dispensary is it. The card lands at 15:40-16:00, right as they catch their breath inside, which is exactly when the next-stop decision happens. Waiting longer just extends the planless drifting that has dominated the last five minutes. From earlier: the museum re-entry fell through ('Wait, they said no filming?'), so they need a new destination, and the only concrete idea on the table is the fan-suggested 'sugar museum' at 0:10:50. Confidence is moderate because that suggestion was never adopted by the group, so the card is framed as an option, not a decision.",
     "risiko": "Wrong if they already settled on a plan or decide to stay at the dispensary; the sugar museum was a fan's offhand suggestion the group never acknowledged, so it may read as random.",
     "konfidenz": 0.45,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Ride-hailing card for leaving the dispensary",
       "verworfen_weil": "No destination chosen yet, the group has walked everywhere for four hours, and the 'Taxi!' shouts were bits, not real intent."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Follow-up: call the museum's office about filming permission",
       "verworfen_weil": "Jason already spoke to the manager in person and the outcome was 'no filming' — the thread is closed."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Food nearby card",
       "verworfen_weil": "No hunger signal anywhere in hour 4; pure speculation."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [
      "Search & route",
      "Food nearby instead",
      "Dismiss"
     ],
     "karte": true,
     "kategorie": "place",
     "titel": "Next stop: Sugar Museum?",
     "zeile": "Fan idea from earlier. Search Maps and get a walking route when you head out.",
     "aktion": "Opens Maps search for 'sugar museum' nearby with walking directions to the top result.",
     "haltbar_s": 900,
     "grund": "They have asked 'what's the plan' four times in five minutes and are ducking into the dispensary specifically to reset — that is exactly when a concrete, dismissible next-stop option helps.",
     "verdict": "repeat",
     "need": "place",
     "need_start": 626
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "t": 990,
   "signal": "aufbruch",
   "conf": 0.84,
   "seen_until": 975,
   "models": {
    "deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash": {
     "lat": 2.9,
     "visible_at": 997.9,
     "cost": 0.0011166,
     "raw": "{\n  \"beobachtung\": \"[0:15:55] Marlon: \\\"We need to get in somewhere and regroup.\\\"\",\n  \"vorhersage\": \"The group will need a safe, quiet place to regroup and reset for at least 10–15 minutes, likely a café, bar, or dispensary with seating and no filming restrictions.\",\n  \"reasoning\": \"The group is overstimulated, being chased, and explicitly said they need to regroup. This is a long-lasting need, not a quick action. The card will appear 10–30 seconds after now, by which time they will still be looking for a place. Earlier they mentioned camping in a dispensary, so that's a known preference. A card suggesting nearby regroup spots is actionable and not something they can resolve in under 30 seconds.\",\n  \"alternativen\": [\n    {\n      \"karte\": \"Call the museum manager for a re-entry\",\n      \"verworfen_weil\": \"That was a past idea and they already got kicked out; not the immediate need.\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"karte\": \"Book a taxi\",\n      \"verworfen_weil\": \"They are on foot and trying to escape a crowd; a taxi might not be accessible immediately.\"\n    }\n  ],\n  \"karte\": true,\n  \"kategorie\": \"place\",\n  \"titel\": \"Find regroup spot nearby\",\n  \"zeile\": \"Quiet place to reset, no filming\",\n  \"aktion\": \"Show list of nearby cafés, bars, or dispensaries with seating\",\n  \"optionen\": [\n    \"Dispensary with lounge\",\n    \"Quiet café\",\n    \"Bar with back room\"\n  ],\n  \"haltbar_s\": 900,\n  \"konfidenz\": 0.85,\n  \"risiko\": \"If they find a spot immediately or decide to keep moving, the card becomes irrelevant.\",\n  \"grund\": \"The group explicitly needs to regroup and the need will persist for several minutes.\"\n}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "[0:15:55] Marlon: \"We need to get in somewhere and regroup.\"",
     "vorhersage": "The group will need a safe, quiet place to regroup and reset for at least 10–15 minutes, likely a café, bar, or dispensary with seating and no filming restrictions.",
     "reasoning": "The group is overstimulated, being chased, and explicitly said they need to regroup. This is a long-lasting need, not a quick action. The card will appear 10–30 seconds after now, by which time they will still be looking for a place. Earlier they mentioned camping in a dispensary, so that's a known preference. A card suggesting nearby regroup spots is actionable and not something they can resolve in under 30 seconds.",
     "risiko": "If they find a spot immediately or decide to keep moving, the card becomes irrelevant.",
     "konfidenz": 0.85,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Call the museum manager for a re-entry",
       "verworfen_weil": "That was a past idea and they already got kicked out; not the immediate need."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Book a taxi",
       "verworfen_weil": "They are on foot and trying to escape a crowd; a taxi might not be accessible immediately."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [
      "Dispensary with lounge",
      "Quiet café",
      "Bar with back room"
     ],
     "karte": true,
     "kategorie": "place",
     "titel": "Find regroup spot nearby",
     "zeile": "Quiet place to reset, no filming",
     "aktion": "Show list of nearby cafés, bars, or dispensaries with seating",
     "haltbar_s": 900,
     "grund": "The group explicitly needs to regroup and the need will persist for several minutes.",
     "verdict": "hit",
     "need": "place",
     "need_start": 626
    },
    "z-ai/glm-5.3-flash": {
     "lat": 5.2,
     "visible_at": 1000.2,
     "cost": 0.00111065,
     "raw": "{\n \"beobachtung\": \"[0:15:55] Marlon: \\\"We need to get in somewhere and regroup.\\\" Group is mobbed by crowds outside, failed to get into the dispensary, taxis being hailed chaotically.\",\n \"vorhersage\": \"At card visibility (~16:40) the group will still be surrounded by fans in the street needing an indoor regroup spot or a ride out; need lasts several minutes.\",\n \"reasoning\": \"The mob situation is ongoing and unresolved at 16:15 — they were denied entry to the dispensary and are still in the street. Marlon explicitly stated the need to regroup somewhere. Latency of 10-30s is fine because the crowd won't disperse that fast. A card offering to find a nearby quiet place or book a car directly serves the stated need without inventing locations.\",\n \"alternativen\": [{\"karte\": \"Call manager of museum for re-entry\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"Jay is already handling that conversation; it's announced and in progress, not my job to push\"}, {\"karte\": \"Taxi booked\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"They are actively hailing taxis themselves and may succeed in seconds; premature\"}],\n \"karte\": true,\n \"kategorie\": \"transport\",\n \"titel\": \"Regroup spot nearby\",\n \"zeile\": \"Crowd outside — find quiet place or car?\",\n \"aktion\": \"Opens maps search for quiet nearby cafe or lounge around current location\",\n \"optionen\": [\"Find quiet cafe nearby\", \"Book ride out\", \"Dismiss\"],\n \"haltbar_s\": 300,\n \"konfidenz\": 0.62,\n \"risiko\": \"If they successfully get into the dispensary or a taxi right after 16:15, the card is obsolete and annoying.\",\n \"grund\": \"Marlon explicitly said they need to regroup somewhere while trapped by a crowd, a need that outlasts the card latency.\"\n}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "[0:15:55] Marlon: \"We need to get in somewhere and regroup.\" Group is mobbed by crowds outside, failed to get into the dispensary, taxis being hailed chaotically.",
     "vorhersage": "At card visibility (~16:40) the group will still be surrounded by fans in the street needing an indoor regroup spot or a ride out; need lasts several minutes.",
     "reasoning": "The mob situation is ongoing and unresolved at 16:15 — they were denied entry to the dispensary and are still in the street. Marlon explicitly stated the need to regroup somewhere. Latency of 10-30s is fine because the crowd won't disperse that fast. A card offering to find a nearby quiet place or book a car directly serves the stated need without inventing locations.",
     "risiko": "If they successfully get into the dispensary or a taxi right after 16:15, the card is obsolete and annoying.",
     "konfidenz": 0.62,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Call manager of museum for re-entry",
       "verworfen_weil": "Jay is already handling that conversation; it's announced and in progress, not my job to push"
      },
      {
       "karte": "Taxi booked",
       "verworfen_weil": "They are actively hailing taxis themselves and may succeed in seconds; premature"
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [
      "Find quiet cafe nearby",
      "Book ride out",
      "Dismiss"
     ],
     "karte": true,
     "kategorie": "transport",
     "titel": "Regroup spot nearby",
     "zeile": "Crowd outside — find quiet place or car?",
     "aktion": "Opens maps search for quiet nearby cafe or lounge around current location",
     "haltbar_s": 300,
     "grund": "Marlon explicitly said they need to regroup somewhere while trapped by a crowd, a need that outlasts the card latency.",
     "verdict": "hit",
     "need": "transport",
     "need_start": 652
    },
    "openai/gpt-5.6-luna": {
     "lat": 8.1,
     "visible_at": 1003.1,
     "cost": 0.00247125,
     "raw": "{\n  \"beobachtung\": \"\\\"We need to get in somewhere and regroup\\\" [15:55], followed by \\\"Taxi!\\\" [16:15].\",\n  \"vorhersage\": \"The group will still need to leave the chaotic area and regroup or find transport for several minutes.\",\n  \"reasoning\": \"They repeatedly called for a taxi and explicitly said they needed to regroup, so departure remains an active need. The 10-to-30-second display delay should still find them moving or waiting for a ride. Earlier plans about returning to the museum were uncertain because staff objected to filming, while transport is the clearest immediate requirement. The card is useful now because it can turn repeated hailing into an actionable ride choice.\",\n  \"alternativen\": [\n    {\n      \"karte\": \"Find nearby safe place\",\n      \"verworfen_weil\": \"They are already trying to move and have repeatedly called for a taxi.\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"karte\": \"Museum manager follow-up\",\n      \"verworfen_weil\": \"Re-entry was speculative and filming restrictions made the plan uncertain.\"\n    }\n  ],\n  \"karte\": true,\n  \"kategorie\": \"transport\",\n  \"titel\": \"Leave and Regroup\",\n  \"zeile\": \"Choose a ride from your current location\",\n  \"aktion\": \"Open pickup and ride choices\",\n  \"optionen\": [\n    \"Taxi\",\n    \"Rideshare\",\n    \"Nearby directions\"\n  ],\n  \"haltbar_s\": 420,\n  \"konfidenz\": 0.86,\n  \"risiko\": \"The card would be annoying if they have already entered a safe venue, secured transport, or are no longer trying to leave.\",\n  \"grund\": \"Their repeated taxi calls and stated need to regroup indicate a persistent departure need.\"\n}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "\"We need to get in somewhere and regroup\" [15:55], followed by \"Taxi!\" [16:15].",
     "vorhersage": "The group will still need to leave the chaotic area and regroup or find transport for several minutes.",
     "reasoning": "They repeatedly called for a taxi and explicitly said they needed to regroup, so departure remains an active need. The 10-to-30-second display delay should still find them moving or waiting for a ride. Earlier plans about returning to the museum were uncertain because staff objected to filming, while transport is the clearest immediate requirement. The card is useful now because it can turn repeated hailing into an actionable ride choice.",
     "risiko": "The card would be annoying if they have already entered a safe venue, secured transport, or are no longer trying to leave.",
     "konfidenz": 0.86,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Find nearby safe place",
       "verworfen_weil": "They are already trying to move and have repeatedly called for a taxi."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Museum manager follow-up",
       "verworfen_weil": "Re-entry was speculative and filming restrictions made the plan uncertain."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [
      "Taxi",
      "Rideshare",
      "Nearby directions"
     ],
     "karte": true,
     "kategorie": "transport",
     "titel": "Leave and Regroup",
     "zeile": "Choose a ride from your current location",
     "aktion": "Open pickup and ride choices",
     "haltbar_s": 420,
     "grund": "Their repeated taxi calls and stated need to regroup indicate a persistent departure need.",
     "verdict": "hit",
     "need": "transport",
     "need_start": 652
    },
    "google/gemini-3.8-flash": {
     "lat": 18.6,
     "visible_at": 1013.6,
     "cost": 0.013776,
     "raw": "{\"beobachtung\": \"Marlon states 'We need to get in somewhere and regroup' at [0:15:55] and the group repeatedly hails cabs, with Speaker 6 yelling 'Taxi! Taxi!' at [0:16:15] while surrounded by fans.\", \"reasoning\": \"The group is actively dealing with a chaotic street crowd and attempting to hail a yellow cab directly on the street. By the time a card appears (16:45–17:00), 30 to 45 seconds will have passed, meaning they will either already be inside a cab or constantly moving to avoid the crowd. Booking a rideshare like Uber XL is ineffective in this moment because Manhattan pickup wait times are too long for an actively mobbed group. Sending a notification to Marlon's phone right now would be distracting and unhelpful during an active physical rush.\", \"alternativen\": [{\"karte\": \"Call Uber XL for the group\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"Rideshare arrival times in NYC traffic are too slow when being mobbed, and hailing a yellow cab is much faster.\"}, {\"karte\": \"Directions to a nearby quiet venue\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"The group has decided to exit the area completely by vehicle rather than staying on foot.\"}], \"karte\": false, \"grund\": \"The group is actively hailing a street cab to escape an overwhelming crowd, making any phone prompt untimely and distracting.\"}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "Marlon states 'We need to get in somewhere and regroup' at [0:15:55] and the group repeatedly hails cabs, with Speaker 6 yelling 'Taxi! Taxi!' at [0:16:15] while surrounded by fans.",
     "vorhersage": "",
     "reasoning": "The group is actively dealing with a chaotic street crowd and attempting to hail a yellow cab directly on the street. By the time a card appears (16:45–17:00), 30 to 45 seconds will have passed, meaning they will either already be inside a cab or constantly moving to avoid the crowd. Booking a rideshare like Uber XL is ineffective in this moment because Manhattan pickup wait times are too long for an actively mobbed group. Sending a notification to Marlon's phone right now would be distracting and unhelpful during an active physical rush.",
     "risiko": "",
     "konfidenz": null,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Call Uber XL for the group",
       "verworfen_weil": "Rideshare arrival times in NYC traffic are too slow when being mobbed, and hailing a yellow cab is much faster."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Directions to a nearby quiet venue",
       "verworfen_weil": "The group has decided to exit the area completely by vehicle rather than staying on foot."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [],
     "verdict": "silent",
     "karte": false,
     "grund": "The group is actively hailing a street cab to escape an overwhelming crowd, making any phone prompt untimely and distracting."
    },
    "openai/gpt-5.6-sol": {
     "lat": 5.0,
     "visible_at": 1000.0,
     "cost": 0.0175885,
     "raw": "{\"beobachtung\":\"[0:16:15] Speaker 6: “Taxi! Taxi!”\",\"reasoning\":\"They are clearly trying to leave and regroup, but no destination has been chosen. Hailing a taxi or asking a friend is likely to resolve within the card’s 10–30 second display latency. A rideshare or nearby-place card could therefore appear after they are already moving, and earlier attempts to find shelter were improvised rather than a request for a specific destination.\",\"alternativen\":[{\"karte\":\"Open rideshare pickup\",\"verworfen_weil\":\"No destination is known, and they are already actively hailing a taxi.\"},{\"karte\":\"Find a quiet regroup spot\",\"verworfen_weil\":\"They may already be inside a vehicle or venue before the card appears.\"}],\"karte\":false,\"grund\":\"The departure need is immediate and likely to resolve before a useful card can appear.\"}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "[0:16:15] Speaker 6: “Taxi! Taxi!”",
     "vorhersage": "",
     "reasoning": "They are clearly trying to leave and regroup, but no destination has been chosen. Hailing a taxi or asking a friend is likely to resolve within the card’s 10–30 second display latency. A rideshare or nearby-place card could therefore appear after they are already moving, and earlier attempts to find shelter were improvised rather than a request for a specific destination.",
     "risiko": "",
     "konfidenz": null,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Open rideshare pickup",
       "verworfen_weil": "No destination is known, and they are already actively hailing a taxi."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Find a quiet regroup spot",
       "verworfen_weil": "They may already be inside a vehicle or venue before the card appears."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [],
     "verdict": "silent",
     "karte": false,
     "grund": "The departure need is immediate and likely to resolve before a useful card can appear."
    },
    "moonshotai/kimi-k3": {
     "lat": 90.6,
     "visible_at": 1085.6,
     "cost": 0.036207,
     "raw": "{\n \"beobachtung\": \"[0:15:55] Marlon: 'We need to get in somewhere and regroup.' and [0:16:15] Speaker 6: 'Taxi! Taxi!'\",\n \"vorhersage\": \"The group is mobbed by fans on the street and trying to leave the area. When the card appears (~16:40-17:00) they will either still be hailing a cab or, if the hail failed like the earlier attempts at 10:52 and 12:13, need a booked ride. The need persists until they are inside a vehicle, likely several more minutes.\",\n \"reasoning\": \"The 'aufbruch' signal is genuine: the group explicitly wants out of the crowd and is hailing a taxi right now. Two earlier street hails (10:52, 12:13) did not get them off the street, and with 4-6 people plus camera gear a single cab is a tight fit, so there is a real chance this attempt also fails or drags on. A one-tap Uber card with the pickup pin pre-set to their current location solves the recurring problem and stays useful for minutes. The 10-30s latency means a successful hail would make the card moot, but in that case it is simply ignored at low cost, while waiting longer risks missing the window entirely.\",\n \"alternativen\": [\n  {\"karte\": \"Quiet indoor spots nearby to regroup\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"They are actively trying to leave the area by taxi; the mob would follow them into any nearby venue.\"},\n  {\"karte\": \"Follow-up: call museum manager about filming permission\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"Already resolved around 13:50 when the manager said no filming.\"}\n ],\n \"karte\": true,\n \"kategorie\": \"transport\",\n \"titel\": \"Book Uber to this spot\",\n \"zeile\": \"Street hails keep failing; pickup pin set here, choose a car size.\",\n \"aktion\": \"Opens Uber with current GPS location pre-set as pickup, ready to confirm.\",\n \"optionen\": [\"UberX (up to 4)\", \"UberXL (group + cameras)\", \"Show pickup point first\"],\n \"haltbar_s\": 240,\n \"konfidenz\": 0.6,\n \"risiko\": \"Annoying if a cab already stopped and they are driving away, or if they made it inside the dispensary after all.\",\n \"grund\": \"They explicitly want to leave the mob and street taxi hails have repeatedly failed, so a one-tap ride booking is the most likely needed help.\"\n}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "[0:15:55] Marlon: 'We need to get in somewhere and regroup.' and [0:16:15] Speaker 6: 'Taxi! Taxi!'",
     "vorhersage": "The group is mobbed by fans on the street and trying to leave the area. When the card appears (~16:40-17:00) they will either still be hailing a cab or, if the hail failed like the earlier attempts at 10:52 and 12:13, need a booked ride. The need persists until they are inside a vehicle, likely several more minutes.",
     "reasoning": "The 'aufbruch' signal is genuine: the group explicitly wants out of the crowd and is hailing a taxi right now. Two earlier street hails (10:52, 12:13) did not get them off the street, and with 4-6 people plus camera gear a single cab is a tight fit, so there is a real chance this attempt also fails or drags on. A one-tap Uber card with the pickup pin pre-set to their current location solves the recurring problem and stays useful for minutes. The 10-30s latency means a successful hail would make the card moot, but in that case it is simply ignored at low cost, while waiting longer risks missing the window entirely.",
     "risiko": "Annoying if a cab already stopped and they are driving away, or if they made it inside the dispensary after all.",
     "konfidenz": 0.6,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Quiet indoor spots nearby to regroup",
       "verworfen_weil": "They are actively trying to leave the area by taxi; the mob would follow them into any nearby venue."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Follow-up: call museum manager about filming permission",
       "verworfen_weil": "Already resolved around 13:50 when the manager said no filming."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [
      "UberX (up to 4)",
      "UberXL (group + cameras)",
      "Show pickup point first"
     ],
     "karte": true,
     "kategorie": "transport",
     "titel": "Book Uber to this spot",
     "zeile": "Street hails keep failing; pickup pin set here, choose a car size.",
     "aktion": "Opens Uber with current GPS location pre-set as pickup, ready to confirm.",
     "haltbar_s": 240,
     "grund": "They explicitly want to leave the mob and street taxi hails have repeatedly failed, so a one-tap ride booking is the most likely needed help.",
     "verdict": "late",
     "late_by": 33,
     "need": "transport",
     "need_start": 652
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "t": 1080,
   "signal": "aufgabe",
   "conf": 0.72,
   "seen_until": 1065,
   "models": {
    "deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash": {
     "lat": 3.8,
     "visible_at": 1088.8,
     "cost": 0.002475,
     "raw": "{\n  \"beobachtung\": \"[0:17:24] \\\"We're gonna reboot, chat.\\\" / [0:17:25] \\\"We gotta reboot, bro. We got a system. Pick us up right here.\\\" / [0:17:33] \\\"I mean, we could order Uber Black, you know what I'm saying?\\\"\",\n  \"vorhersage\": \"The group is sheltering in a storefront, wants to leave and reset. They will need a ride (Uber Black or similar) for at least the next few minutes while they coordinate pickup and wait for the car.\",\n  \"reasoning\": \"The pre-filter signal 'aufgabe' fired, and the transcript shows a concrete, unresolved task: getting a ride out of a chaotic spot. This is not a sub-30-second action — ordering a car, waiting for pickup, and coordinating with Lacey takes minutes. The card becomes visible 10–30s after now, by which time they will still be stuck and needing transport. Earlier in the stream they were on foot and getting mobbed, so a ride is the natural next step. Booking is the right category because it's an actionable, durable need.\",\n  \"alternativen\": [\n    {\"karte\": \"Contact the museum manager for a re-entry segment\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"That's a follow-up idea, not an immediate need; they're currently sheltering and need to move first.\"},\n    {\"karte\": \"Note the 'reboot' idea for stream ops\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"Too vague and not actionable right now; transport is the pressing need.\"}\n  ],\n  \"karte\": true,\n  \"kategorie\": \"transport\",\n  \"titel\": \"Order ride to reset\",\n  \"zeile\": \"Book Uber Black pickup at current location\",\n  \"aktion\": \"Opens ride-hailing app with pickup at current location\",\n  \"optionen\": [\"Uber Black now\", \"Schedule for later\", \"Share ETA with group\"],\n  \"haltbar_s\": 300,\n  \"konfidenz\": 0.78,\n  \"risiko\": \"If they decide to stay and talk to the manager, or if Lacey is still outside and they wait, the card could be premature or annoying.\",\n  \"grund\": \"They explicitly said they need to reboot and mentioned ordering Uber Black, so a ride booking card is timely and useful.\"\n}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "[0:17:24] \"We're gonna reboot, chat.\" / [0:17:25] \"We gotta reboot, bro. We got a system. Pick us up right here.\" / [0:17:33] \"I mean, we could order Uber Black, you know what I'm saying?\"",
     "vorhersage": "The group is sheltering in a storefront, wants to leave and reset. They will need a ride (Uber Black or similar) for at least the next few minutes while they coordinate pickup and wait for the car.",
     "reasoning": "The pre-filter signal 'aufgabe' fired, and the transcript shows a concrete, unresolved task: getting a ride out of a chaotic spot. This is not a sub-30-second action — ordering a car, waiting for pickup, and coordinating with Lacey takes minutes. The card becomes visible 10–30s after now, by which time they will still be stuck and needing transport. Earlier in the stream they were on foot and getting mobbed, so a ride is the natural next step. Booking is the right category because it's an actionable, durable need.",
     "risiko": "If they decide to stay and talk to the manager, or if Lacey is still outside and they wait, the card could be premature or annoying.",
     "konfidenz": 0.78,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Contact the museum manager for a re-entry segment",
       "verworfen_weil": "That's a follow-up idea, not an immediate need; they're currently sheltering and need to move first."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Note the 'reboot' idea for stream ops",
       "verworfen_weil": "Too vague and not actionable right now; transport is the pressing need."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [
      "Uber Black now",
      "Schedule for later",
      "Share ETA with group"
     ],
     "karte": true,
     "kategorie": "transport",
     "titel": "Order ride to reset",
     "zeile": "Book Uber Black pickup at current location",
     "aktion": "Opens ride-hailing app with pickup at current location",
     "haltbar_s": 300,
     "grund": "They explicitly said they need to reboot and mentioned ordering Uber Black, so a ride booking card is timely and useful.",
     "verdict": "late",
     "late_by": 36,
     "need": "transport",
     "need_start": 652
    },
    "z-ai/glm-5.3-flash": {
     "lat": 5.5,
     "visible_at": 1090.5,
     "cost": 0.00117895,
     "raw": "{\n \"beobachtung\": \"[0:17:33] Speaker 6: \\\"I mean, we could order Uber Black, you know what I'm saying?\\\" — group is trapped in a store surrounded by a crowd, discussing how to escape.\",\n \"vorhersage\": \"Group needs a ride out of the crowd within the next few minutes; they will still be stuck and deciding on transport when the card appears.\",\n \"reasoning\": \"The group is boxed in by fans ('We're literally surrounded', 0:17:22) and actively brainstorming escape options; the Uber Black idea was floated seconds before the transcript ends. Booking a car takes longer than 30 seconds and the need will persist while they regroup. Latency of 10-30s still lands during the regroup, so the card remains useful. Taxis have failed repeatedly earlier (0:10:52, 0:12:13, 0:16:15), so hailing on the street is not working.\",\n \"alternativen\": [{\"karte\": \"Call museum manager re: filming\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"Jay is already handling the manager negotiation in person; nothing for Marlon to do right now.\"}, {\"karte\": \"Text editor for pickup\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"Speaker 1 said he's already texting the editor himself at 0:17:28; a card would duplicate his action.\"}],\n \"karte\": true,\n \"kategorie\": \"transport\",\n \"titel\": \"Book Uber Black escape\",\n \"zeile\": \"Pickup at current location to regroup\",\n \"aktion\": \"Opens rideshare with current location as pickup\",\n \"optionen\": [\"Book Uber Black now\", \"Compare regular Uber\", \"Share pickup with group\"],\n \"haltbar_s\": 240,\n \"konfidenz\": 0.7,\n \"risiko\": \"If the editor already arranged a pickup or the crowd disperses, the card is redundant and annoying.\",\n \"grund\": \"The group is trapped by a crowd, street taxis keep failing, and an Uber Black was just proposed, so a one-tap booking card directly serves an active, ongoing need.\"\n}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "[0:17:33] Speaker 6: \"I mean, we could order Uber Black, you know what I'm saying?\" — group is trapped in a store surrounded by a crowd, discussing how to escape.",
     "vorhersage": "Group needs a ride out of the crowd within the next few minutes; they will still be stuck and deciding on transport when the card appears.",
     "reasoning": "The group is boxed in by fans ('We're literally surrounded', 0:17:22) and actively brainstorming escape options; the Uber Black idea was floated seconds before the transcript ends. Booking a car takes longer than 30 seconds and the need will persist while they regroup. Latency of 10-30s still lands during the regroup, so the card remains useful. Taxis have failed repeatedly earlier (0:10:52, 0:12:13, 0:16:15), so hailing on the street is not working.",
     "risiko": "If the editor already arranged a pickup or the crowd disperses, the card is redundant and annoying.",
     "konfidenz": 0.7,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Call museum manager re: filming",
       "verworfen_weil": "Jay is already handling the manager negotiation in person; nothing for Marlon to do right now."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Text editor for pickup",
       "verworfen_weil": "Speaker 1 said he's already texting the editor himself at 0:17:28; a card would duplicate his action."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [
      "Book Uber Black now",
      "Compare regular Uber",
      "Share pickup with group"
     ],
     "karte": true,
     "kategorie": "transport",
     "titel": "Book Uber Black escape",
     "zeile": "Pickup at current location to regroup",
     "aktion": "Opens rideshare with current location as pickup",
     "haltbar_s": 240,
     "grund": "The group is trapped by a crowd, street taxis keep failing, and an Uber Black was just proposed, so a one-tap booking card directly serves an active, ongoing need.",
     "verdict": "late",
     "late_by": 38,
     "need": "transport",
     "need_start": 652
    },
    "openai/gpt-5.6-luna": {
     "lat": 7.5,
     "visible_at": 1092.5,
     "cost": 0.0024181,
     "raw": "{\n  \"beobachtung\": \"\\\"We gotta reboot, bro. We got a system. Pick us up right here.\\\" [17:25] followed by \\\"we could order Uber Black\\\" [17:33]\",\n  \"vorhersage\": \"When visible, they will still need to choose or arrange transportation while regrouping, likely for several minutes.\",\n  \"reasoning\": \"The group is sheltering together and explicitly discussing pickup and Uber Black, so transportation is an active unresolved need. This will outlast the card's 10–30 second display latency because they are still deciding what to do and have not confirmed a ride. Earlier, they repeatedly tried to regroup, find a safe place, and leave together. A transport choice is more useful now than a short-lived prompt to text someone.\",\n  \"alternativen\": [\n    {\n      \"karte\": \"Message editor\",\n      \"verworfen_weil\": \"They can send that message quickly, while the transportation decision remains unresolved.\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"karte\": \"Find regroup location\",\n      \"verworfen_weil\": \"They have already found a place to regroup and are discussing departure.\"\n    }\n  ],\n  \"karte\": true,\n  \"kategorie\": \"transport\",\n  \"titel\": \"Arrange the ride\",\n  \"zeile\": \"Choose how everyone leaves the regroup point.\",\n  \"aktion\": \"Open transportation booking from [current location].\",\n  \"optionen\": [\n    \"Request Uber Black\",\n    \"Call a taxi\",\n    \"Text pickup contact\"\n  ],\n  \"haltbar_s\": 900,\n  \"konfidenz\": 0.91,\n  \"risiko\": \"Annoying or wrong if someone has already arranged pickup or the group decides to stay.\",\n  \"grund\": \"They explicitly need to leave together and are actively weighing pickup, a taxi, and Uber Black.\"\n}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "\"We gotta reboot, bro. We got a system. Pick us up right here.\" [17:25] followed by \"we could order Uber Black\" [17:33]",
     "vorhersage": "When visible, they will still need to choose or arrange transportation while regrouping, likely for several minutes.",
     "reasoning": "The group is sheltering together and explicitly discussing pickup and Uber Black, so transportation is an active unresolved need. This will outlast the card's 10–30 second display latency because they are still deciding what to do and have not confirmed a ride. Earlier, they repeatedly tried to regroup, find a safe place, and leave together. A transport choice is more useful now than a short-lived prompt to text someone.",
     "risiko": "Annoying or wrong if someone has already arranged pickup or the group decides to stay.",
     "konfidenz": 0.91,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Message editor",
       "verworfen_weil": "They can send that message quickly, while the transportation decision remains unresolved."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Find regroup location",
       "verworfen_weil": "They have already found a place to regroup and are discussing departure."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [
      "Request Uber Black",
      "Call a taxi",
      "Text pickup contact"
     ],
     "karte": true,
     "kategorie": "transport",
     "titel": "Arrange the ride",
     "zeile": "Choose how everyone leaves the regroup point.",
     "aktion": "Open transportation booking from [current location].",
     "haltbar_s": 900,
     "grund": "They explicitly need to leave together and are actively weighing pickup, a taxi, and Uber Black.",
     "verdict": "late",
     "late_by": 40,
     "need": "transport",
     "need_start": 652
    },
    "google/gemini-3.8-flash": {
     "lat": 9.5,
     "visible_at": 1094.5,
     "cost": 0.0100365,
     "raw": "{\"beobachtung\": \"Speaker 6 mentions 'we could order Uber Black' at [0:17:35] while the group is sheltering from crowd swarms inside a store.\", \"reasoning\": \"The group just ducked into a store to regroup, and Speaker 6 immediately pivoted from mentioning Uber Black to asking Jason what the museum management said. They do not have an agreed destination, nor has a decision been made to leave—if the museum approved filming, they may head right back. Popping an Uber card when the group is waiting on Jason's update and has no specified destination would be premature and distracting.\", \"alternativen\": [{\"karte\": \"Uber Black pickup shortcut\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"No destination is set, and the group is currently discussing whether the museum allowed them back in.\"}], \"karte\": false, \"grund\": \"The mention of Uber Black was a passing thought while the group is actively awaiting Jason's update on whether they can re-enter the museum.\"}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "Speaker 6 mentions 'we could order Uber Black' at [0:17:35] while the group is sheltering from crowd swarms inside a store.",
     "vorhersage": "",
     "reasoning": "The group just ducked into a store to regroup, and Speaker 6 immediately pivoted from mentioning Uber Black to asking Jason what the museum management said. They do not have an agreed destination, nor has a decision been made to leave—if the museum approved filming, they may head right back. Popping an Uber card when the group is waiting on Jason's update and has no specified destination would be premature and distracting.",
     "risiko": "",
     "konfidenz": null,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Uber Black pickup shortcut",
       "verworfen_weil": "No destination is set, and the group is currently discussing whether the museum allowed them back in."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [],
     "verdict": "silent",
     "karte": false,
     "grund": "The mention of Uber Black was a passing thought while the group is actively awaiting Jason's update on whether they can re-enter the museum."
    },
    "openai/gpt-5.6-sol": {
     "lat": 6.7,
     "visible_at": 1091.7,
     "cost": 0.019111,
     "raw": "{\"beobachtung\":\"[0:17:28] Speaker 1: “I’m gonna text him right now.” [0:17:33] Speaker 6: “What you texting your editor for, bro? I mean, we could order Uber Black...”\",\"reasoning\":\"The detected task is already being handled by text and should finish before a card appears. Uber Black is only a suggestion, with no confirmed destination, and someone immediately says they are not going. Earlier they repeatedly sought a safe place to regroup, but they have now entered one, so the urgent need has eased. A transport card would risk interrupting their reset before they decide the next move.\",\"alternativen\":[{\"karte\":\"Open Uber Black pickup\",\"verworfen_weil\":\"No destination is confirmed, and the group has not decided to leave.\"},{\"karte\":\"Remind editor to arrange pickup\",\"verworfen_weil\":\"The message is already being sent and is likely complete within 30 seconds.\"}],\"karte\":false,\"grund\":\"No durable unresolved task is clear enough to justify a delayed card.\"}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "[0:17:28] Speaker 1: “I’m gonna text him right now.” [0:17:33] Speaker 6: “What you texting your editor for, bro? I mean, we could order Uber Black...”",
     "vorhersage": "",
     "reasoning": "The detected task is already being handled by text and should finish before a card appears. Uber Black is only a suggestion, with no confirmed destination, and someone immediately says they are not going. Earlier they repeatedly sought a safe place to regroup, but they have now entered one, so the urgent need has eased. A transport card would risk interrupting their reset before they decide the next move.",
     "risiko": "",
     "konfidenz": null,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Open Uber Black pickup",
       "verworfen_weil": "No destination is confirmed, and the group has not decided to leave."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Remind editor to arrange pickup",
       "verworfen_weil": "The message is already being sent and is likely complete within 30 seconds."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [],
     "verdict": "silent",
     "karte": false,
     "grund": "No durable unresolved task is clear enough to justify a delayed card."
    },
    "moonshotai/kimi-k3": {
     "lat": 22.4,
     "visible_at": 1107.4,
     "cost": 0.042954,
     "raw": "{\n \"beobachtung\": \"[0:17:25] Marlon: 'We gotta reboot, bro. We got a system. Pick us up right here.' / [0:17:28] Speaker 1: 'I don't know how long it would take. Two, that's annoying. I'm gonna text him right now.' / [0:17:33] Speaker 6: 'I mean, we could order Uber Black, you know what I'm saying?'\",\n \"vorhersage\": \"The group is holed up in a store, surrounded by fans, actively debating how to get picked up. The transport decision is unresolved and will still be open for the next 2-5 minutes while they wait and argue options.\",\n \"reasoning\": \"They were kicked out of the museum, mobbed on the street, and explicitly retreated into this 'safe house' to regroup, so leaving by foot is off the table for now. The Uber Black suggestion was floated seconds ago with no decision, and the alternative (texting someone) was called slow and annoying, so the need is live. The card lands 10-30s from now, right in the middle of this unresolved discussion, not after it. Earlier in the stream they repeatedly asked 'what's the plan' with no answer, which suggests indecision will drag. A one-tap ride booking with pickup at their current spot directly serves the extraction they described.\",\n \"alternativen\": [{\"karte\": \"Follow-up: call museum manager about filming permission\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"Jason already talked to them and the group is about to discuss the outcome themselves; no external action needed from me\"}, {\"karte\": \"Plan card for the rest of the day\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"Too vague and the immediate blocker is getting out of the current location, not itinerary planning\"}],\n \"karte\": true,\n \"kategorie\": \"transport\",\n \"titel\": \"Ride pickup at your spot?\",\n \"zeile\": \"Still surrounded inside; book a ride to [current location] for the crew.\",\n \"aktion\": \"Opens ride app with pickup pinned to current location, ready to confirm\",\n \"optionen\": [\"Uber Black\", \"UberXL for crew\", \"Send location to driver\"],\n \"haltbar_s\": 240,\n \"konfidenz\": 0.62,\n \"risiko\": \"Wrong if the person being texted already confirmed a pickup, or if they decide to wait out the crowd and walk instead\",\n \"grund\": \"The group is trapped in a store and actively debating an Uber Black pickup, so a one-tap ride card matches a live, unresolved transport need.\"\n}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "[0:17:25] Marlon: 'We gotta reboot, bro. We got a system. Pick us up right here.' / [0:17:28] Speaker 1: 'I don't know how long it would take. Two, that's annoying. I'm gonna text him right now.' / [0:17:33] Speaker 6: 'I mean, we could order Uber Black, you know what I'm saying?'",
     "vorhersage": "The group is holed up in a store, surrounded by fans, actively debating how to get picked up. The transport decision is unresolved and will still be open for the next 2-5 minutes while they wait and argue options.",
     "reasoning": "They were kicked out of the museum, mobbed on the street, and explicitly retreated into this 'safe house' to regroup, so leaving by foot is off the table for now. The Uber Black suggestion was floated seconds ago with no decision, and the alternative (texting someone) was called slow and annoying, so the need is live. The card lands 10-30s from now, right in the middle of this unresolved discussion, not after it. Earlier in the stream they repeatedly asked 'what's the plan' with no answer, which suggests indecision will drag. A one-tap ride booking with pickup at their current spot directly serves the extraction they described.",
     "risiko": "Wrong if the person being texted already confirmed a pickup, or if they decide to wait out the crowd and walk instead",
     "konfidenz": 0.62,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Follow-up: call museum manager about filming permission",
       "verworfen_weil": "Jason already talked to them and the group is about to discuss the outcome themselves; no external action needed from me"
      },
      {
       "karte": "Plan card for the rest of the day",
       "verworfen_weil": "Too vague and the immediate blocker is getting out of the current location, not itinerary planning"
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [
      "Uber Black",
      "UberXL for crew",
      "Send location to driver"
     ],
     "karte": true,
     "kategorie": "transport",
     "titel": "Ride pickup at your spot?",
     "zeile": "Still surrounded inside; book a ride to [current location] for the crew.",
     "aktion": "Opens ride app with pickup pinned to current location, ready to confirm",
     "haltbar_s": 240,
     "grund": "The group is trapped in a store and actively debating an Uber Black pickup, so a one-tap ride card matches a live, unresolved transport need.",
     "verdict": "late",
     "late_by": 54,
     "need": "transport",
     "need_start": 652
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "t": 1140,
   "signal": "aufgabe",
   "conf": 0.75,
   "seen_until": 1125,
   "models": {
    "deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash": {
     "lat": 5.1,
     "visible_at": 1150.1,
     "cost": 0.00112359,
     "raw": "{\n  \"beobachtung\": \"[0:18:20] Speaker 1: 'The people that were there want you guys to go, but there's a certain person that has to come through and like approve everything.' and [0:17:47] 'I'm emailing right now, but they have my phone me if their management...'\",\n  \"vorhersage\": \"The group is sheltering in a store, waiting on a museum manager's approval text and deciding between Uber Black or a pickup. This waiting/decision state will persist for at least several minutes while they coordinate.\",\n  \"reasoning\": \"The pre-filter 'aufgabe' (task) fired, and the transcript shows an open loop: Jay emailed the museum, management approval is pending, and the group is explicitly asking 'what are we gonna do?' while stuck in a safe house. This is not a sub-30-second action — it's a booking/coordination task that will still be unresolved when the card appears. Latency of 10-30s is fine because the decision window is minutes long. Earlier in the stream they were kicked out of the museum and are now trying to get back in, so a followup card tracking that approval is timely. A transport card for Uber Black is also viable but the approval is the longer-lived need.\",\n  \"alternativen\": [\n    {\"karte\": \"Book Uber Black pickup\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"Transport is a 30-second app action and they may get picked up by their own driver instead; less durable than the pending approval.\"},\n    {\"karte\": \"Note the museum segment idea\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"They already discussed it verbally and Jay is emailing; a note card adds little now.\"}\n  ],\n  \"karte\": true,\n  \"kategorie\": \"followup\",\n  \"titel\": \"Museum approval pending\",\n  \"zeile\": \"Track manager approval text from museum\",\n  \"aktion\": \"Opens a followup note to track the museum manager's approval reply\",\n  \"optionen\": [\"Set reminder to check\", \"Draft follow-up text\", \"Note contact name\"],\n  \"haltbar_s\": 600,\n  \"konfidenz\": 0.62,\n  \"risiko\": \"If management already replied or they've moved on to a different plan, this card is stale and annoying.\",\n  \"grund\": \"An open approval loop with the museum is unresolved and will still matter when the card appears.\"\n}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "[0:18:20] Speaker 1: 'The people that were there want you guys to go, but there's a certain person that has to come through and like approve everything.' and [0:17:47] 'I'm emailing right now, but they have my phone me if their management...'",
     "vorhersage": "The group is sheltering in a store, waiting on a museum manager's approval text and deciding between Uber Black or a pickup. This waiting/decision state will persist for at least several minutes while they coordinate.",
     "reasoning": "The pre-filter 'aufgabe' (task) fired, and the transcript shows an open loop: Jay emailed the museum, management approval is pending, and the group is explicitly asking 'what are we gonna do?' while stuck in a safe house. This is not a sub-30-second action — it's a booking/coordination task that will still be unresolved when the card appears. Latency of 10-30s is fine because the decision window is minutes long. Earlier in the stream they were kicked out of the museum and are now trying to get back in, so a followup card tracking that approval is timely. A transport card for Uber Black is also viable but the approval is the longer-lived need.",
     "risiko": "If management already replied or they've moved on to a different plan, this card is stale and annoying.",
     "konfidenz": 0.62,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Book Uber Black pickup",
       "verworfen_weil": "Transport is a 30-second app action and they may get picked up by their own driver instead; less durable than the pending approval."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Note the museum segment idea",
       "verworfen_weil": "They already discussed it verbally and Jay is emailing; a note card adds little now."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [
      "Set reminder to check",
      "Draft follow-up text",
      "Note contact name"
     ],
     "karte": true,
     "kategorie": "followup",
     "titel": "Museum approval pending",
     "zeile": "Track manager approval text from museum",
     "aktion": "Opens a followup note to track the museum manager's approval reply",
     "haltbar_s": 600,
     "grund": "An open approval loop with the museum is unresolved and will still matter when the card appears.",
     "verdict": "hit",
     "need": "followup",
     "need_start": 547
    },
    "z-ai/glm-5.3-flash": {
     "lat": 5.5,
     "visible_at": 1150.5,
     "cost": 0.00123825,
     "raw": "{\n \"beobachtung\": \"[0:17:33] Speaker 6: \\\"we could order Uber Black, you know what I'm saying\\\"; [0:18:44] Speaker 1: \\\"So what are we gonna do? ... All right, we could call Black.\\\"\",\n \"vorhersage\": \"The group is trapped in a dispensary surrounded by a crowd and needs a ride out within the next minutes; an Uber Black booking will still be relevant when the card appears.\",\n \"reasoning\": \"They are stuck inside, explicitly discussing calling an Uber Black as the escape plan, and no one has actually booked one yet. The need persists because they cannot leave on foot and are waiting on the museum approval anyway. Latency of 10-30 seconds is fine since the ride request is still pending. Earlier context: they were kicked out of the museum, Jay is negotiating re-entry, and the crowd outside makes walking impossible.\",\n \"alternativen\": [{\"karte\": \"Museum manager approval followup\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"Jay is already emailing management and they said they'd text back; it's in progress and not actionable via a card\"}, {\"karte\": \"Text editor for pickup\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"Speaker 1 already said \\\"I'm gonna text him right now\\\" at [0:17:28], so it's handled\"}],\n \"karte\": true,\n \"kategorie\": \"transport\",\n \"titel\": \"Book Uber Black pickup\",\n \"zeile\": \"Group stuck in dispensary, needs ride out\",\n \"aktion\": \"Open rides app with pickup set to current location\",\n \"optionen\": [\"Request Uber Black\", \"Set pickup to entrance\", \"Cancel\"],\n \"haltbar_s\": 600,\n \"konfidenz\": 0.72,\n \"risiko\": \"If they book the ride themselves in the next seconds or decide to wait for the museum approval, the card is noise; also the transcript is noisy so 'call Black' could mean something else.\",\n \"grund\": \"The group is trapped by a crowd and has twice floated ordering an Uber Black without anyone completing it, so a booking shortcut remains useful when the card appears.\"\n}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "[0:17:33] Speaker 6: \"we could order Uber Black, you know what I'm saying\"; [0:18:44] Speaker 1: \"So what are we gonna do? ... All right, we could call Black.\"",
     "vorhersage": "The group is trapped in a dispensary surrounded by a crowd and needs a ride out within the next minutes; an Uber Black booking will still be relevant when the card appears.",
     "reasoning": "They are stuck inside, explicitly discussing calling an Uber Black as the escape plan, and no one has actually booked one yet. The need persists because they cannot leave on foot and are waiting on the museum approval anyway. Latency of 10-30 seconds is fine since the ride request is still pending. Earlier context: they were kicked out of the museum, Jay is negotiating re-entry, and the crowd outside makes walking impossible.",
     "risiko": "If they book the ride themselves in the next seconds or decide to wait for the museum approval, the card is noise; also the transcript is noisy so 'call Black' could mean something else.",
     "konfidenz": 0.72,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Museum manager approval followup",
       "verworfen_weil": "Jay is already emailing management and they said they'd text back; it's in progress and not actionable via a card"
      },
      {
       "karte": "Text editor for pickup",
       "verworfen_weil": "Speaker 1 already said \"I'm gonna text him right now\" at [0:17:28], so it's handled"
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [
      "Request Uber Black",
      "Set pickup to entrance",
      "Cancel"
     ],
     "karte": true,
     "kategorie": "transport",
     "titel": "Book Uber Black pickup",
     "zeile": "Group stuck in dispensary, needs ride out",
     "aktion": "Open rides app with pickup set to current location",
     "haltbar_s": 600,
     "grund": "The group is trapped by a crowd and has twice floated ordering an Uber Black without anyone completing it, so a booking shortcut remains useful when the card appears.",
     "verdict": "late",
     "late_by": 98,
     "need": "transport",
     "need_start": 652
    },
    "openai/gpt-5.6-luna": {
     "lat": 8.6,
     "visible_at": 1153.6,
     "cost": 0.00263625,
     "raw": "{\n  \"beobachtung\": \"\\\"All right, we could call Black.\\\" (18:44)\",\n  \"vorhersage\": \"They will need a ride to leave or regroup, likely for several minutes to an hour.\",\n  \"reasoning\": \"The group is actively discussing Uber Black after repeatedly saying they need to regroup and reset. This need will still exist when the card appears because arranging transportation takes longer than the display latency. A transport card is more timely than a venue follow-up, since management approval is uncertain and already being handled by someone else. Earlier they explicitly considered ordering Uber Black while sheltering in a store.\",\n  \"alternativen\": [\n    {\n      \"karte\": \"Venue approval follow-up\",\n      \"verworfen_weil\": \"Someone is already contacting management, and approval may not happen.\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"karte\": \"Regroup location\",\n      \"verworfen_weil\": \"They are currently sheltered together, so finding a place is less urgent.\"\n    }\n  ],\n  \"karte\": true,\n  \"kategorie\": \"transport\",\n  \"titel\": \"Arrange a Ride\",\n  \"zeile\": \"Choose a way out and regroup\",\n  \"aktion\": \"Opens the selected ride option with current pickup location.\",\n  \"optionen\": [\n    \"Uber Black\",\n    \"Call taxi\",\n    \"Choose destination\"\n  ],\n  \"haltbar_s\": 1800,\n  \"konfidenz\": 0.87,\n  \"risiko\": \"Annoying if a ride is already arranged, management lets them back in, or they decide to stay put.\",\n  \"grund\": \"The group is still looking for a way to leave and explicitly mentions calling Uber Black.\"\n}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "\"All right, we could call Black.\" (18:44)",
     "vorhersage": "They will need a ride to leave or regroup, likely for several minutes to an hour.",
     "reasoning": "The group is actively discussing Uber Black after repeatedly saying they need to regroup and reset. This need will still exist when the card appears because arranging transportation takes longer than the display latency. A transport card is more timely than a venue follow-up, since management approval is uncertain and already being handled by someone else. Earlier they explicitly considered ordering Uber Black while sheltering in a store.",
     "risiko": "Annoying if a ride is already arranged, management lets them back in, or they decide to stay put.",
     "konfidenz": 0.87,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Venue approval follow-up",
       "verworfen_weil": "Someone is already contacting management, and approval may not happen."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Regroup location",
       "verworfen_weil": "They are currently sheltered together, so finding a place is less urgent."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [
      "Uber Black",
      "Call taxi",
      "Choose destination"
     ],
     "karte": true,
     "kategorie": "transport",
     "titel": "Arrange a Ride",
     "zeile": "Choose a way out and regroup",
     "aktion": "Opens the selected ride option with current pickup location.",
     "haltbar_s": 1800,
     "grund": "The group is still looking for a way to leave and explicitly mentions calling Uber Black.",
     "verdict": "late",
     "late_by": 101,
     "need": "transport",
     "need_start": 652
    },
    "google/gemini-3.8-flash": {
     "lat": 11.1,
     "visible_at": 1156.1,
     "cost": 0.0104295,
     "raw": "{\"beobachtung\": \"Speaker 1 at [0:18:44]: 'So what are we gonna do? Look behind us, bro. All right, we could call Black.' and [0:17:35]: 'I mean, we could order Uber Black...'\", \"reasoning\": \"The group is taking refuge in a store while waiting to hear back from the museum management and wondering whether to order an Uber Black. They have not decided on a destination, and opening a rideshare app is a routine action under 30 seconds. Pushing an Uber card without a destination while they are still actively deciding whether to leave or wait for museum approval would be premature and disruptive.\", \"alternativen\": [{\"karte\": \"Call Uber Black\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"Destination is unknown and opening a ride-hailing app takes under 30 seconds once decided.\"}], \"karte\": false, \"grund\": \"The group has not chosen a destination yet and ordering a ride directly in their app takes under 30 seconds.\"}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "Speaker 1 at [0:18:44]: 'So what are we gonna do? Look behind us, bro. All right, we could call Black.' and [0:17:35]: 'I mean, we could order Uber Black...'",
     "vorhersage": "",
     "reasoning": "The group is taking refuge in a store while waiting to hear back from the museum management and wondering whether to order an Uber Black. They have not decided on a destination, and opening a rideshare app is a routine action under 30 seconds. Pushing an Uber card without a destination while they are still actively deciding whether to leave or wait for museum approval would be premature and disruptive.",
     "risiko": "",
     "konfidenz": null,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Call Uber Black",
       "verworfen_weil": "Destination is unknown and opening a ride-hailing app takes under 30 seconds once decided."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [],
     "verdict": "silent",
     "karte": false,
     "grund": "The group has not chosen a destination yet and ordering a ride directly in their app takes under 30 seconds."
    },
    "openai/gpt-5.6-sol": {
     "lat": 6.7,
     "visible_at": 1151.7,
     "cost": 0.0204985,
     "raw": "{\"beobachtung\":\"[0:18:44] Speaker 1: “So what are we gonna do? … All right, we could call Black.”\",\"reasoning\":\"They need to leave the crowded area, but they are already discussing and likely opening a ride app. The destination is still undecided, so a transport card cannot complete a useful booking without guessing. Because the transcript is 15 seconds behind and the card adds another 10–30 seconds, it would probably appear after they have acted. The museum approval is also already being handled by email and phone.\",\"alternativen\":[{\"karte\":\"Open Uber Black\",\"verworfen_weil\":\"They can open it immediately themselves, and no destination has been chosen.\"},{\"karte\":\"Museum management follow-up\",\"verworfen_weil\":\"Jason is already emailing, and management has their phone number.\"}],\"karte\":false,\"grund\":\"No unresolved need is likely to remain actionable by the time a card appears.\"}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "[0:18:44] Speaker 1: “So what are we gonna do? … All right, we could call Black.”",
     "vorhersage": "",
     "reasoning": "They need to leave the crowded area, but they are already discussing and likely opening a ride app. The destination is still undecided, so a transport card cannot complete a useful booking without guessing. Because the transcript is 15 seconds behind and the card adds another 10–30 seconds, it would probably appear after they have acted. The museum approval is also already being handled by email and phone.",
     "risiko": "",
     "konfidenz": null,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Open Uber Black",
       "verworfen_weil": "They can open it immediately themselves, and no destination has been chosen."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Museum management follow-up",
       "verworfen_weil": "Jason is already emailing, and management has their phone number."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [],
     "verdict": "silent",
     "karte": false,
     "grund": "No unresolved need is likely to remain actionable by the time a card appears."
    },
    "moonshotai/kimi-k3": {
     "lat": 37.5,
     "visible_at": 1182.5,
     "cost": 0.0520626,
     "raw": "{\n \"beobachtung\": \"[0:18:44] Speaker 1: \\\"So what are we gonna do? Look behind us, bro. All right, we could call Black.\\\" — earlier [0:17:33] \\\"we could order Uber Black\\\" and [0:17:25] \\\"Pick us up right here.\\\"\",\n \"vorhersage\": \"When the card appears (~19:10–19:30) the group is still holed up in the dispensary, mobbed outside, mid-decision on how to leave; choosing and booking a ride typically keeps the need alive for 2–5 minutes.\",\n \"reasoning\": \"The group explicitly debated texting their driver versus ordering an Uber Black, and the last line before the transcript cut off was someone committing to 'call Black,' so the transport need is live and unresolved right now. The 15-second transcript lag means that line is only ~15–30 seconds old in real time, and ordering an Uber involves destination and confirmation steps that nobody finishes in under 30 seconds, so the need survives the 10–30 second card latency. Earlier context supports this: they were kicked out of the museum, swarmed by fans, retreated into the dispensary as a 'safe house,' and said they need to 'reboot' and get picked up. Waiting longer risks them having already booked, but acting now catches the decision window while they are still asking 'what are we gonna do.' The pending museum manager callback is a separate thread that does not conflict with leaving.\",\n \"alternativen\": [\n  {\"karte\": \"Follow-up: museum manager will text Jay about re-entry approval\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"Jay already exchanged numbers and is handling it; nothing to book or track from my side\"},\n  {\"karte\": \"Note idea: talk to manager / promo angle for the museum\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"Already acted on in-stream (Jay emailed and got a contact), so the idea is captured\"}\n ],\n \"karte\": true,\n \"kategorie\": \"transport\",\n \"titel\": \"Uber Black from here?\",\n \"zeile\": \"Pickup pinned to current location; tap to open Uber with Uber Black preselected.\",\n \"aktion\": \"Opens Uber with Uber Black preselected and pickup set to current GPS; they only confirm destination.\",\n \"optionen\": [\"Book Uber Black now\", \"Text your driver instead\", \"Not yet, still waiting\"],\n \"haltbar_s\": 180,\n \"konfidenz\": 0.6,\n \"risiko\": \"Annoying if they already booked in the last 30 seconds or decide to stay put waiting for the museum callback.\",\n \"grund\": \"They are actively deciding to call an Uber Black right now, and a one-tap preloaded booking outlasts the latency and shortens their time exposed outside.\"\n}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "[0:18:44] Speaker 1: \"So what are we gonna do? Look behind us, bro. All right, we could call Black.\" — earlier [0:17:33] \"we could order Uber Black\" and [0:17:25] \"Pick us up right here.\"",
     "vorhersage": "When the card appears (~19:10–19:30) the group is still holed up in the dispensary, mobbed outside, mid-decision on how to leave; choosing and booking a ride typically keeps the need alive for 2–5 minutes.",
     "reasoning": "The group explicitly debated texting their driver versus ordering an Uber Black, and the last line before the transcript cut off was someone committing to 'call Black,' so the transport need is live and unresolved right now. The 15-second transcript lag means that line is only ~15–30 seconds old in real time, and ordering an Uber involves destination and confirmation steps that nobody finishes in under 30 seconds, so the need survives the 10–30 second card latency. Earlier context supports this: they were kicked out of the museum, swarmed by fans, retreated into the dispensary as a 'safe house,' and said they need to 'reboot' and get picked up. Waiting longer risks them having already booked, but acting now catches the decision window while they are still asking 'what are we gonna do.' The pending museum manager callback is a separate thread that does not conflict with leaving.",
     "risiko": "Annoying if they already booked in the last 30 seconds or decide to stay put waiting for the museum callback.",
     "konfidenz": 0.6,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Follow-up: museum manager will text Jay about re-entry approval",
       "verworfen_weil": "Jay already exchanged numbers and is handling it; nothing to book or track from my side"
      },
      {
       "karte": "Note idea: talk to manager / promo angle for the museum",
       "verworfen_weil": "Already acted on in-stream (Jay emailed and got a contact), so the idea is captured"
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [
      "Book Uber Black now",
      "Text your driver instead",
      "Not yet, still waiting"
     ],
     "karte": true,
     "kategorie": "transport",
     "titel": "Uber Black from here?",
     "zeile": "Pickup pinned to current location; tap to open Uber with Uber Black preselected.",
     "aktion": "Opens Uber with Uber Black preselected and pickup set to current GPS; they only confirm destination.",
     "haltbar_s": 180,
     "grund": "They are actively deciding to call an Uber Black right now, and a one-tap preloaded booking outlasts the latency and shortens their time exposed outside.",
     "verdict": "late",
     "late_by": 130,
     "need": "transport",
     "need_start": 652
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "t": 1200,
   "signal": "aufbruch",
   "conf": 0.63,
   "seen_until": 1185,
   "models": {
    "deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash": {
     "lat": 4.2,
     "visible_at": 1209.2,
     "cost": 0.0014409,
     "raw": "{\n  \"beobachtung\": \"[0:19:43] Speaker 1: \\\"Listen, there's another factory called the Color Factory.\\\" — directly after [0:19:33] Marlon: \\\"I heard there's a spot. It's a uh abandoned train station.\\\" and [0:19:22] \\\"see how like a sugar factory?\\\"\",\n  \"vorhersage\": \"The group is sheltering in a store, explicitly saying they need to \\\"reboot\\\" and \\\"figure out a way\\\" ([0:19:15]) and are now brainstorming the next destination. They will keep debating options (sugar factory, abandoned train station, Color Factory) for at least the next several minutes while they finish smoothies and wait on the museum management text.\",\n  \"reasoning\": \"The pre-filter 'aufbruch' (departure) is directionally right: they are stationary in a safe house and openly planning where to go next. But the transcript is 15 seconds behind and the card lands 10–30 seconds after now, so by 20:00–20:30 they will still be in the store, not departing. The need is not 'leave now' but 'pick and book a destination' — that need persists well past the card's visibility. Earlier in the stream they lost time to unplanned wandering and got kicked out of the museum, so a concrete next stop with a booking is genuinely useful. I must not invent addresses or prices, so the card only offers to look up and book, with placeholders.\",\n  \"alternativen\": [\n    {\n      \"karte\": \"Follow up with museum management about filming approval\",\n      \"verworfen_weil\": \"Jason is already handling this via email/text ([0:17:47]–[0:18:20]); a card would duplicate active work.\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"karte\": \"Book Uber Black to leave the safe house\",\n      \"verworfen_weil\": \"They are still waiting on the museum answer and finishing smoothies; departure is not imminent enough and the need may vanish in under 30 seconds if they decide to stay.\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"karte\": \"Note the 'world's first vibrator' museum as a content idea\",\n      \"verworfen_weil\": \"They already experienced it and are actively trying to get back in; noting it adds nothing.\"\n    }\n  ],\n  \"karte\": true,\n  \"kategorie\": \"place\",\n  \"titel\": \"Pick next NYC stop\",\n  \"zeile\": \"Compare Color Factory, sugar museum, abandoned train station\",\n  \"aktion\": \"Opens a comparison of the three mentioned spots with hours, distance and booking links\",\n  \"optionen\": [\n    \"Color Factory details\",\n    \"Sugar museum details\",\n    \"Abandoned train station info\"\n  ],\n  \"haltbar_s\": 600,\n  \"konfidenz\": 0.62,\n  \"risiko\": \"If the museum texts back with approval within the next minute, the group may immediately return there and ignore this card; also, if they are just chatting and not actually deciding, the card is noise.\",\n  \"grund\": \"They are stationary and explicitly brainstorming the next destination, so a silent comparison-and-book card is useful for the next several minutes.\"\n}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "[0:19:43] Speaker 1: \"Listen, there's another factory called the Color Factory.\" — directly after [0:19:33] Marlon: \"I heard there's a spot. It's a uh abandoned train station.\" and [0:19:22] \"see how like a sugar factory?\"",
     "vorhersage": "The group is sheltering in a store, explicitly saying they need to \"reboot\" and \"figure out a way\" ([0:19:15]) and are now brainstorming the next destination. They will keep debating options (sugar factory, abandoned train station, Color Factory) for at least the next several minutes while they finish smoothies and wait on the museum management text.",
     "reasoning": "The pre-filter 'aufbruch' (departure) is directionally right: they are stationary in a safe house and openly planning where to go next. But the transcript is 15 seconds behind and the card lands 10–30 seconds after now, so by 20:00–20:30 they will still be in the store, not departing. The need is not 'leave now' but 'pick and book a destination' — that need persists well past the card's visibility. Earlier in the stream they lost time to unplanned wandering and got kicked out of the museum, so a concrete next stop with a booking is genuinely useful. I must not invent addresses or prices, so the card only offers to look up and book, with placeholders.",
     "risiko": "If the museum texts back with approval within the next minute, the group may immediately return there and ignore this card; also, if they are just chatting and not actually deciding, the card is noise.",
     "konfidenz": 0.62,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Follow up with museum management about filming approval",
       "verworfen_weil": "Jason is already handling this via email/text ([0:17:47]–[0:18:20]); a card would duplicate active work."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Book Uber Black to leave the safe house",
       "verworfen_weil": "They are still waiting on the museum answer and finishing smoothies; departure is not imminent enough and the need may vanish in under 30 seconds if they decide to stay."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Note the 'world's first vibrator' museum as a content idea",
       "verworfen_weil": "They already experienced it and are actively trying to get back in; noting it adds nothing."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [
      "Color Factory details",
      "Sugar museum details",
      "Abandoned train station info"
     ],
     "karte": true,
     "kategorie": "place",
     "titel": "Pick next NYC stop",
     "zeile": "Compare Color Factory, sugar museum, abandoned train station",
     "aktion": "Opens a comparison of the three mentioned spots with hours, distance and booking links",
     "haltbar_s": 600,
     "grund": "They are stationary and explicitly brainstorming the next destination, so a silent comparison-and-book card is useful for the next several minutes.",
     "verdict": "hit",
     "need": "place",
     "need_start": 626
    },
    "z-ai/glm-5.3-flash": {
     "lat": 14.0,
     "visible_at": 1219.0,
     "cost": 0.00091815,
     "raw": "{\n \"beobachtung\": \"[0:19:22] Speaker 1: 'see how like a sugar factory? There's also another...' and [0:19:33] Marlon: 'Bro, I heard there's a spot. It's a uh abandoned train station.' and [0:19:43] 'there's another factory called the Color Factory.'\",\n \"reasoning\": \"The group is brainstorming possible next destinations while holed up in the dispensary, but no destination has been chosen or announced — these are half-formed ideas still under active discussion. The 'aufbruch' pre-filter likely fired on the earlier 'we gotta move' energy, but right now they are deliberately staying put ('we're not going though', waiting on the museum manager's approval via text). By the time a card becomes visible (10–30s after 20:00), the conversation will likely have moved on or resolved the choice themselves in well under a minute. Nothing here is a lasting, actionable need yet.\",\n \"alternativen\": [{\"karte\": \"Color Factory info card\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"Just mentioned as one of several vague options; not chosen, no commitment, and they can look it up themselves instantly if picked.\"}, {\"karte\": \"Museum manager approval followup\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"Jason is already emailing/texting management himself and tracking it actively; a card would duplicate work in progress.\"}],\n \"karte\": false,\n \"grund\": \"The group is mid-brainstorm with no committed destination or pending task that survives the card latency; everything discussed is either self-resolving or too vague to act on.\"\n}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "[0:19:22] Speaker 1: 'see how like a sugar factory? There's also another...' and [0:19:33] Marlon: 'Bro, I heard there's a spot. It's a uh abandoned train station.' and [0:19:43] 'there's another factory called the Color Factory.'",
     "vorhersage": "",
     "reasoning": "The group is brainstorming possible next destinations while holed up in the dispensary, but no destination has been chosen or announced — these are half-formed ideas still under active discussion. The 'aufbruch' pre-filter likely fired on the earlier 'we gotta move' energy, but right now they are deliberately staying put ('we're not going though', waiting on the museum manager's approval via text). By the time a card becomes visible (10–30s after 20:00), the conversation will likely have moved on or resolved the choice themselves in well under a minute. Nothing here is a lasting, actionable need yet.",
     "risiko": "",
     "konfidenz": null,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Color Factory info card",
       "verworfen_weil": "Just mentioned as one of several vague options; not chosen, no commitment, and they can look it up themselves instantly if picked."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Museum manager approval followup",
       "verworfen_weil": "Jason is already emailing/texting management himself and tracking it actively; a card would duplicate work in progress."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [],
     "verdict": "silent",
     "karte": false,
     "grund": "The group is mid-brainstorm with no committed destination or pending task that survives the card latency; everything discussed is either self-resolving or too vague to act on."
    },
    "openai/gpt-5.6-luna": {
     "lat": 7.4,
     "visible_at": 1212.4,
     "cost": 0.0027226,
     "raw": "{\n  \"beobachtung\": \"At 19:33 Marlon said, \\\"Bro, I heard there's a spot. It's a uh abandoned train station,\\\" and at 19:43 another speaker said, \\\"There's another factory called the Color Factory.\\\"\",\n  \"vorhersage\": \"When visible, the group will still need to choose and navigate to a next destination, likely for the next 15 to 30 minutes.\",\n  \"reasoning\": \"They are regrouping and repeatedly asking what to do next, with no confirmed destination yet. The museum visit remains pending management approval, while several alternative places are being floated. The card will appear within about 30 seconds, before this longer-lasting planning need is likely resolved. Earlier, they were already trying to arrange approval and transportation after being removed from the museum.\",\n  \"alternativen\": [\n    {\n      \"karte\": \"Museum approval follow-up\",\n      \"verworfen_weil\": \"They are already emailing or texting management, so another prompt would duplicate ongoing work.\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"karte\": \"Book transportation\",\n      \"verworfen_weil\": \"No destination has been chosen, making a specific booking premature.\"\n    }\n  ],\n  \"karte\": true,\n  \"kategorie\": \"place\",\n  \"titel\": \"Choose Next Stop\",\n  \"zeile\": \"Pick a destination and open directions.\",\n  \"aktion\": \"Opens a map search for the selected destination.\",\n  \"optionen\": [\n    \"Color Factory\",\n    \"Sugar Factory\",\n    \"Abandoned train station\"\n  ],\n  \"haltbar_s\": 1800,\n  \"konfidenz\": 0.82,\n  \"risiko\": \"Annoying or wrong if museum management approves immediately or the group has already chosen another destination.\",\n  \"grund\": \"The group has an unresolved, immediate destination decision with several concrete alternatives already mentioned.\"\n}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "At 19:33 Marlon said, \"Bro, I heard there's a spot. It's a uh abandoned train station,\" and at 19:43 another speaker said, \"There's another factory called the Color Factory.\"",
     "vorhersage": "When visible, the group will still need to choose and navigate to a next destination, likely for the next 15 to 30 minutes.",
     "reasoning": "They are regrouping and repeatedly asking what to do next, with no confirmed destination yet. The museum visit remains pending management approval, while several alternative places are being floated. The card will appear within about 30 seconds, before this longer-lasting planning need is likely resolved. Earlier, they were already trying to arrange approval and transportation after being removed from the museum.",
     "risiko": "Annoying or wrong if museum management approves immediately or the group has already chosen another destination.",
     "konfidenz": 0.82,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Museum approval follow-up",
       "verworfen_weil": "They are already emailing or texting management, so another prompt would duplicate ongoing work."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Book transportation",
       "verworfen_weil": "No destination has been chosen, making a specific booking premature."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [
      "Color Factory",
      "Sugar Factory",
      "Abandoned train station"
     ],
     "karte": true,
     "kategorie": "place",
     "titel": "Choose Next Stop",
     "zeile": "Pick a destination and open directions.",
     "aktion": "Opens a map search for the selected destination.",
     "haltbar_s": 1800,
     "grund": "The group has an unresolved, immediate destination decision with several concrete alternatives already mentioned.",
     "verdict": "repeat",
     "need": "place",
     "need_start": 626
    },
    "google/gemini-3.8-flash": {
     "lat": 6.8,
     "visible_at": 1211.8,
     "cost": 0.008718,
     "raw": "{\"beobachtung\": \"[0:19:22] Speaker 1: 'well, they see how like a sugar factory? There's also another... Bro, I heard there's a spot. It's a abandoned train station... Listen, there's another factory called the Color Factory.'\", \"reasoning\": \"The group just ducked into a shop to escape fans, ordered protein smoothies, and is casually brainstorming next stops. Nobody has agreed on a destination yet, nor has anyone decided to leave or requested transit. Any destination or transport card right now would be speculative and premature while they are resting inside.\", \"alternativen\": [{\"karte\": \"Options: Color Factory vs Sugar Factory vs City Hall Subway Station\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"Premature brainstorming; group is currently getting smoothies and waiting to see if Museum of Sex approves filming.\"}], \"karte\": false, \"grund\": \"The group is taking a breather inside to drink smoothies while casually throwing out ideas without any decision yet.\"}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "[0:19:22] Speaker 1: 'well, they see how like a sugar factory? There's also another... Bro, I heard there's a spot. It's a abandoned train station... Listen, there's another factory called the Color Factory.'",
     "vorhersage": "",
     "reasoning": "The group just ducked into a shop to escape fans, ordered protein smoothies, and is casually brainstorming next stops. Nobody has agreed on a destination yet, nor has anyone decided to leave or requested transit. Any destination or transport card right now would be speculative and premature while they are resting inside.",
     "risiko": "",
     "konfidenz": null,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Options: Color Factory vs Sugar Factory vs City Hall Subway Station",
       "verworfen_weil": "Premature brainstorming; group is currently getting smoothies and waiting to see if Museum of Sex approves filming."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [],
     "verdict": "silent",
     "karte": false,
     "grund": "The group is taking a breather inside to drink smoothies while casually throwing out ideas without any decision yet."
    },
    "openai/gpt-5.6-sol": {
     "lat": 10.9,
     "visible_at": 1215.9,
     "cost": 0.023926,
     "raw": "{\"beobachtung\":\"[0:19:43] Speaker 1: “Listen, there's another factory called the Color Factory.”\",\"vorhersage\":\"The group will need to verify and locate the Color Factory while choosing their next stop; this should remain relevant for several minutes.\",\"reasoning\":\"They have repeatedly said they need a plan and are currently regrouping indoors, so choosing the next destination remains unresolved. The Color Factory is the first concrete alternative mentioned after discussing the uncertain museum approval. With the card appearing 10–30 seconds later, they will likely still be comparing options or waiting for smoothies. Earlier crowd pressure makes confirming the destination before stepping outside especially useful.\",\"alternativen\":[{\"karte\":\"Abandoned station directions\",\"verworfen_weil\":\"The location is unspecified and may involve unsafe or unauthorized access.\"},{\"karte\":\"Book an Uber Black\",\"verworfen_weil\":\"They have not chosen a destination, and someone can order a ride quickly once they do.\"}],\"karte\":true,\"kategorie\":\"place\",\"titel\":\"Check Color Factory\",\"zeile\":\"Verify tonight’s hours, tickets, and route before leaving.\",\"aktion\":\"Opens the Color Factory’s official listing with current hours, directions, and ticket link.\",\"optionen\":[\"View hours\",\"Get directions\",\"Check tickets\"],\"haltbar_s\":300,\"konfidenz\":0.84,\"risiko\":\"It would be unnecessary if museum management approves filming or the group immediately chooses another destination.\",\"grund\":\"A concrete destination now needs verification while the group is still deciding where to go.\"}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "[0:19:43] Speaker 1: “Listen, there's another factory called the Color Factory.”",
     "vorhersage": "The group will need to verify and locate the Color Factory while choosing their next stop; this should remain relevant for several minutes.",
     "reasoning": "They have repeatedly said they need a plan and are currently regrouping indoors, so choosing the next destination remains unresolved. The Color Factory is the first concrete alternative mentioned after discussing the uncertain museum approval. With the card appearing 10–30 seconds later, they will likely still be comparing options or waiting for smoothies. Earlier crowd pressure makes confirming the destination before stepping outside especially useful.",
     "risiko": "It would be unnecessary if museum management approves filming or the group immediately chooses another destination.",
     "konfidenz": 0.84,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Abandoned station directions",
       "verworfen_weil": "The location is unspecified and may involve unsafe or unauthorized access."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Book an Uber Black",
       "verworfen_weil": "They have not chosen a destination, and someone can order a ride quickly once they do."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [
      "View hours",
      "Get directions",
      "Check tickets"
     ],
     "karte": true,
     "kategorie": "place",
     "titel": "Check Color Factory",
     "zeile": "Verify tonight’s hours, tickets, and route before leaving.",
     "aktion": "Opens the Color Factory’s official listing with current hours, directions, and ticket link.",
     "haltbar_s": 300,
     "grund": "A concrete destination now needs verification while the group is still deciding where to go.",
     "verdict": "hit",
     "need": "place",
     "need_start": 626
    },
    "moonshotai/kimi-k3": {
     "lat": 219.5,
     "visible_at": 1424.5,
     "cost": 0.042726,
     "raw": "{\n \"beobachtung\": \"[0:17:33] 'we could order Uber Black' and [0:17:25] 'We gotta reboot... Pick us up right here', plus the still-open destination debate at [0:19:43] 'there's another factory called the Color Factory' while they hide from fans in a shop\",\n \"vorhersage\": \"At 20:10-20:30 they are still inside the shop finishing smoothies and arguing over the next spot; within roughly 5-15 minutes they need a discreet car out past the fans, so the ride-booking need persists well beyond the moment the card appears\",\n \"reasoning\": \"The open thread right now is exactly 'how do we leave and where do we go': Uber Black was explicitly floated, and the destination (Color Factory vs Sugar Factory vs waiting on the museum callback) is still undecided at 19:45. Booking a ride is a multi-minute task, so a card landing 10-30 seconds from now arrives mid-decision, not after it. Earlier in the stream they failed to fit everyone into one taxi and got chased into this shop, so a pre-staged ride avoids another sidewalk scramble. Showing it later would be worse, because the useful window is precisely while they wait for the smoothies. Confidence is capped because someone said 'we got a system' and was texting a contact, so a pickup may already be in motion.\",\n \"alternativen\": [\n  {\"karte\": \"Color Factory info card (hours, tickets, map)\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"Destination is not decided yet; the card is wasted if they pick the Sugar Factory or the museum calls back with approval\"},\n  {\"karte\": \"Follow-up card: museum manager callback pending\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"Not actionable by me; Jason is already waiting on the text and a bare reminder adds nothing\"}\n ],\n \"karte\": true,\n \"kategorie\": \"transport\",\n \"titel\": \"Ride out when ready\",\n \"zeile\": \"Uber Black from this shop; destination still open — Color Factory or Sugar Factory?\",\n \"aktion\": \"One tap opens Uber with pickup pinned at the shop and Uber Black preselected; destination set via the options\",\n \"optionen\": [\"Color Factory [address]\", \"Sugar Factory [address]\", \"Pick destination in app\"],\n \"haltbar_s\": 900,\n \"konfidenz\": 0.55,\n \"risiko\": \"Annoying if their own pickup is already arranged via the text they sent, or if the museum calls back with approval and they simply walk back over\",\n \"grund\": \"They are actively planning a discreet departure with an undecided destination, and a pre-staged Uber Black card covers every branch of that decision.\"\n}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "[0:17:33] 'we could order Uber Black' and [0:17:25] 'We gotta reboot... Pick us up right here', plus the still-open destination debate at [0:19:43] 'there's another factory called the Color Factory' while they hide from fans in a shop",
     "vorhersage": "At 20:10-20:30 they are still inside the shop finishing smoothies and arguing over the next spot; within roughly 5-15 minutes they need a discreet car out past the fans, so the ride-booking need persists well beyond the moment the card appears",
     "reasoning": "The open thread right now is exactly 'how do we leave and where do we go': Uber Black was explicitly floated, and the destination (Color Factory vs Sugar Factory vs waiting on the museum callback) is still undecided at 19:45. Booking a ride is a multi-minute task, so a card landing 10-30 seconds from now arrives mid-decision, not after it. Earlier in the stream they failed to fit everyone into one taxi and got chased into this shop, so a pre-staged ride avoids another sidewalk scramble. Showing it later would be worse, because the useful window is precisely while they wait for the smoothies. Confidence is capped because someone said 'we got a system' and was texting a contact, so a pickup may already be in motion.",
     "risiko": "Annoying if their own pickup is already arranged via the text they sent, or if the museum calls back with approval and they simply walk back over",
     "konfidenz": 0.55,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Color Factory info card (hours, tickets, map)",
       "verworfen_weil": "Destination is not decided yet; the card is wasted if they pick the Sugar Factory or the museum calls back with approval"
      },
      {
       "karte": "Follow-up card: museum manager callback pending",
       "verworfen_weil": "Not actionable by me; Jason is already waiting on the text and a bare reminder adds nothing"
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [
      "Color Factory [address]",
      "Sugar Factory [address]",
      "Pick destination in app"
     ],
     "karte": true,
     "kategorie": "transport",
     "titel": "Ride out when ready",
     "zeile": "Uber Black from this shop; destination still open — Color Factory or Sugar Factory?",
     "aktion": "One tap opens Uber with pickup pinned at the shop and Uber Black preselected; destination set via the options",
     "haltbar_s": 900,
     "grund": "They are actively planning a discreet departure with an undecided destination, and a pre-staged Uber Black card covers every branch of that decision.",
     "verdict": "late",
     "late_by": 2,
     "need": "transport",
     "need_start": 1323
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "t": 1320,
   "signal": "aufbruch",
   "conf": 0.7,
   "seen_until": 1305,
   "models": {
    "deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash": {
     "lat": 16.4,
     "visible_at": 1341.4,
     "cost": 0.00132454,
     "raw": "{\n  \"beobachtung\": \"Marlon at 21:39: \\\"I've never been to the Wax Museum. I don't know if it's like interesting or not, but... The Sex Museum? No, Wax Museum.\\\" — preceded by a long brainstorm of options (Color Factory, Beat the Bomb, Balloon Museum, abandoned train station, Wax Museum) starting around 19:22.\",\n  \"vorhersage\": \"The group is sheltering in a shop/dispensary to 'reboot' and explicitly has no plan for the rest of the night. They will keep debating destinations for at least several minutes, and the Wax Museum / Beat the Bomb / Color Factory shortlist will still be unresolved when the card appears.\",\n  \"reasoning\": \"The 'aufbruch' signal is misleading: they are not leaving yet, they are hiding and resetting, and the real open need is a destination decision. This is a long-lived need (they have been listing options for ~2 minutes and still have none), so a card will not be stale in 10–30 seconds. Earlier in the stream they were kicked out of the museum and are waiting on management approval, so that plan is blocked and they need a fallback. A card that surfaces the shortlist they themselves named, plus the option to check opening hours, is useful without inventing any numbers. I must not book anything or name prices/addresses.\",\n  \"alternativen\": [\n    {\"karte\": \"Follow-up: museum management approval\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"Jason is already emailing and waiting on a text; it is in progress and a card would duplicate his action.\"},\n    {\"karte\": \"Order Uber Black to reset\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"They only floated it as an option and are currently safe inside; transport is not yet the binding need.\"},\n    {\"karte\": \"Note the 'world's first vibrator' segment idea\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"It is a nice clip idea but not actionable tonight and the group has moved on.\"}\n  ],\n  \"karte\": true,\n  \"kategorie\": \"place\",\n  \"titel\": \"Pick tonight's next stop\",\n  \"zeile\": \"Shortlist: Wax Museum, Beat the Bomb, Color Factory\",\n  \"aktion\": \"Opens a comparison of the three shortlisted spots with hours and distance\",\n  \"optionen\": [\"Wax Museum\", \"Beat the Bomb\", \"Color Factory\"],\n  \"haltbar_s\": 600,\n  \"konfidenz\": 0.62,\n  \"risiko\": \"Annoying if they get museum approval in the next minute and decide to go back there instead, or if they just want to sit and drink smoothies.\",\n  \"grund\": \"They are stalled with no plan and have been naming candidate spots for two minutes, so a shortlist card helps them commit.\"\n}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "Marlon at 21:39: \"I've never been to the Wax Museum. I don't know if it's like interesting or not, but... The Sex Museum? No, Wax Museum.\" — preceded by a long brainstorm of options (Color Factory, Beat the Bomb, Balloon Museum, abandoned train station, Wax Museum) starting around 19:22.",
     "vorhersage": "The group is sheltering in a shop/dispensary to 'reboot' and explicitly has no plan for the rest of the night. They will keep debating destinations for at least several minutes, and the Wax Museum / Beat the Bomb / Color Factory shortlist will still be unresolved when the card appears.",
     "reasoning": "The 'aufbruch' signal is misleading: they are not leaving yet, they are hiding and resetting, and the real open need is a destination decision. This is a long-lived need (they have been listing options for ~2 minutes and still have none), so a card will not be stale in 10–30 seconds. Earlier in the stream they were kicked out of the museum and are waiting on management approval, so that plan is blocked and they need a fallback. A card that surfaces the shortlist they themselves named, plus the option to check opening hours, is useful without inventing any numbers. I must not book anything or name prices/addresses.",
     "risiko": "Annoying if they get museum approval in the next minute and decide to go back there instead, or if they just want to sit and drink smoothies.",
     "konfidenz": 0.62,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Follow-up: museum management approval",
       "verworfen_weil": "Jason is already emailing and waiting on a text; it is in progress and a card would duplicate his action."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Order Uber Black to reset",
       "verworfen_weil": "They only floated it as an option and are currently safe inside; transport is not yet the binding need."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Note the 'world's first vibrator' segment idea",
       "verworfen_weil": "It is a nice clip idea but not actionable tonight and the group has moved on."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [
      "Wax Museum",
      "Beat the Bomb",
      "Color Factory"
     ],
     "karte": true,
     "kategorie": "place",
     "titel": "Pick tonight's next stop",
     "zeile": "Shortlist: Wax Museum, Beat the Bomb, Color Factory",
     "aktion": "Opens a comparison of the three shortlisted spots with hours and distance",
     "haltbar_s": 600,
     "grund": "They are stalled with no plan and have been naming candidate spots for two minutes, so a shortlist card helps them commit.",
     "verdict": "hit",
     "need": "place",
     "need_start": 626
    },
    "z-ai/glm-5.3-flash": {
     "lat": 3.0,
     "visible_at": 1328.0,
     "cost": 0.00146005,
     "raw": "{\n \"beobachtung\": \"[0:17:47] Speaker 6: \\\"Uh, I'm emailing right now, but they have my phone... so they're gonna text\\\"; [0:18:20] \\\"there's a certain person that has to come through and like approve everything\\\"; [0:18:24] \\\"Okay, okay, okay. They seem like they\\\"\",\n \"vorhersage\": \"The group is holed up in the dispensary waiting for the museum's management to approve a return; when the card appears they will still be waiting and will need a reminder of the pending approval and who is handling it, likely for several minutes.\",\n \"reasoning\": \"The museum re-entry approval is an open, unresolved thread: Jay is emailing/texting management and the group explicitly said the visit was worth redoing if cleared. This need lasts well beyond 30 seconds and will still exist when the card becomes visible, since management approval typically takes minutes. The latency is acceptable because nothing about the approval is time-critical in the next half minute. Earlier in the stream they were kicked out mid-visit and repeatedly said the content was good promo, so the follow-up is genuinely wanted, not just talk.\",\n \"alternativen\": [{\"karte\": \"Next stop ideas: Wax Museum, Beat the Bomb\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"Just brainstorming chatter; no decision made and they may get back into the museum first\"}, {\"karte\": \"Order Uber Black to escape the crowd\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"They deliberately chose to shelter and regroup in the dispensary; transport is not currently wanted\"}],\n \"karte\": true,\n \"kategorie\": \"followup\",\n \"titel\": \"Museum approval pending\",\n \"zeile\": \"Jay waiting on management text about re-entry\",\n \"aktion\": \"Open the message thread with the museum contact\",\n \"optionen\": [\"Check Jay's messages\", \"Mark as resolved\", \"Snooze 10 minutes\"],\n \"haltbar_s\": 600,\n \"konfidenz\": 0.62,\n \"risiko\": \"If management replies with a clear yes/no right before the card shows, the reminder becomes noise; also the transcript is noisy and the approval thread could already be settled off-mic.\",\n \"grund\": \"The pending management approval for returning to the museum is an unfinished, durable follow-up the group explicitly cares about.\"\n}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "[0:17:47] Speaker 6: \"Uh, I'm emailing right now, but they have my phone... so they're gonna text\"; [0:18:20] \"there's a certain person that has to come through and like approve everything\"; [0:18:24] \"Okay, okay, okay. They seem like they\"",
     "vorhersage": "The group is holed up in the dispensary waiting for the museum's management to approve a return; when the card appears they will still be waiting and will need a reminder of the pending approval and who is handling it, likely for several minutes.",
     "reasoning": "The museum re-entry approval is an open, unresolved thread: Jay is emailing/texting management and the group explicitly said the visit was worth redoing if cleared. This need lasts well beyond 30 seconds and will still exist when the card becomes visible, since management approval typically takes minutes. The latency is acceptable because nothing about the approval is time-critical in the next half minute. Earlier in the stream they were kicked out mid-visit and repeatedly said the content was good promo, so the follow-up is genuinely wanted, not just talk.",
     "risiko": "If management replies with a clear yes/no right before the card shows, the reminder becomes noise; also the transcript is noisy and the approval thread could already be settled off-mic.",
     "konfidenz": 0.62,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Next stop ideas: Wax Museum, Beat the Bomb",
       "verworfen_weil": "Just brainstorming chatter; no decision made and they may get back into the museum first"
      },
      {
       "karte": "Order Uber Black to escape the crowd",
       "verworfen_weil": "They deliberately chose to shelter and regroup in the dispensary; transport is not currently wanted"
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [
      "Check Jay's messages",
      "Mark as resolved",
      "Snooze 10 minutes"
     ],
     "karte": true,
     "kategorie": "followup",
     "titel": "Museum approval pending",
     "zeile": "Jay waiting on management text about re-entry",
     "aktion": "Open the message thread with the museum contact",
     "haltbar_s": 600,
     "grund": "The pending management approval for returning to the museum is an unfinished, durable follow-up the group explicitly cares about.",
     "verdict": "hit",
     "need": "followup",
     "need_start": 547
    },
    "openai/gpt-5.6-luna": {
     "lat": 8.5,
     "visible_at": 1333.5,
     "cost": 0.0029538,
     "raw": "{\n  \"beobachtung\": \"At 21:39 Marlon says, \\\"I've never been to the Wax Museum... The Sex Museum? No, Wax Museum,\\\" after the group repeatedly asks what to do next.\",\n  \"vorhersage\": \"When visible, they will still need to choose and navigate to a next activity, likely for several minutes while regrouping.\",\n  \"reasoning\": \"The group has no settled plan and has been cycling through museums and attractions since being removed from the earlier venue. Their overstimulation makes a clear shortlist more useful than another open-ended search. The 10–30 second latency should still catch the decision window because they are stationary and regrouping. Earlier discussion already ruled out relying on the Sex Museum, while the Wax Museum, Balloon Museum, and Beat the Bomb remain active possibilities.\",\n  \"alternativen\": [\n    {\n      \"karte\": \"Find a nearby protein smoothie\",\n      \"verworfen_weil\": \"They already ordered smoothies, so this need should finish quickly.\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"karte\": \"Arrange a ride\",\n      \"verworfen_weil\": \"They mentioned Uber Black and taxis, but have not committed to transport before choosing a destination.\"\n    }\n  ],\n  \"karte\": true,\n  \"kategorie\": \"place\",\n  \"titel\": \"Pick next stop\",\n  \"zeile\": \"Choose an attraction and open directions\",\n  \"aktion\": \"Open the selected place in Maps\",\n  \"optionen\": [\n    \"Wax Museum\",\n    \"Balloon Museum\",\n    \"Beat the Bomb\"\n  ],\n  \"haltbar_s\": 600,\n  \"konfidenz\": 0.79,\n  \"risiko\": \"Annoying or wrong if the pending manager approval succeeds or the group chooses a different attraction before the card appears.\",\n  \"grund\": \"They are actively trying to decide where to go next, and the decision will outlast the card's short display latency.\"\n}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "At 21:39 Marlon says, \"I've never been to the Wax Museum... The Sex Museum? No, Wax Museum,\" after the group repeatedly asks what to do next.",
     "vorhersage": "When visible, they will still need to choose and navigate to a next activity, likely for several minutes while regrouping.",
     "reasoning": "The group has no settled plan and has been cycling through museums and attractions since being removed from the earlier venue. Their overstimulation makes a clear shortlist more useful than another open-ended search. The 10–30 second latency should still catch the decision window because they are stationary and regrouping. Earlier discussion already ruled out relying on the Sex Museum, while the Wax Museum, Balloon Museum, and Beat the Bomb remain active possibilities.",
     "risiko": "Annoying or wrong if the pending manager approval succeeds or the group chooses a different attraction before the card appears.",
     "konfidenz": 0.79,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Find a nearby protein smoothie",
       "verworfen_weil": "They already ordered smoothies, so this need should finish quickly."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Arrange a ride",
       "verworfen_weil": "They mentioned Uber Black and taxis, but have not committed to transport before choosing a destination."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [
      "Wax Museum",
      "Balloon Museum",
      "Beat the Bomb"
     ],
     "karte": true,
     "kategorie": "place",
     "titel": "Pick next stop",
     "zeile": "Choose an attraction and open directions",
     "aktion": "Open the selected place in Maps",
     "haltbar_s": 600,
     "grund": "They are actively trying to decide where to go next, and the decision will outlast the card's short display latency.",
     "verdict": "hit",
     "need": "place",
     "need_start": 626
    },
    "google/gemini-3.8-flash": {
     "lat": 9.9,
     "visible_at": 1334.9,
     "cost": 0.009057,
     "raw": "{\"beobachtung\": \"Marlon and the group are inside a smoothie shop recovering from a crowd outside, ordering protein shakes, and brainstorming random places (Wax Museum, Beat the Bomb, Color Factory) at 21:39: 'I've never been to the Wax Museum. I don't know if it's like interesting or not...'\", \"reasoning\": \"The 'aufbruch' signal is a false trigger caused by earlier shouts for taxis and crowd evasion. The group just ordered smoothies and is currently resting inside the shop while fans wait outside. They have not settled on an onward destination, discussing five different options without committing. Any transport or booking card right now would be premature.\", \"alternativen\": [{\"karte\": \"Directions / info for Madame Tussauds Wax Museum\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"They rejected Times Square right before due to overstimulation and are only casually chatting about it, not committed.\"}], \"karte\": false, \"grund\": \"The group is resting and drinking smoothies in the shop with no agreed destination or immediate departure.\"}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "Marlon and the group are inside a smoothie shop recovering from a crowd outside, ordering protein shakes, and brainstorming random places (Wax Museum, Beat the Bomb, Color Factory) at 21:39: 'I've never been to the Wax Museum. I don't know if it's like interesting or not...'",
     "vorhersage": "",
     "reasoning": "The 'aufbruch' signal is a false trigger caused by earlier shouts for taxis and crowd evasion. The group just ordered smoothies and is currently resting inside the shop while fans wait outside. They have not settled on an onward destination, discussing five different options without committing. Any transport or booking card right now would be premature.",
     "risiko": "",
     "konfidenz": null,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Directions / info for Madame Tussauds Wax Museum",
       "verworfen_weil": "They rejected Times Square right before due to overstimulation and are only casually chatting about it, not committed."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [],
     "verdict": "silent",
     "karte": false,
     "grund": "The group is resting and drinking smoothies in the shop with no agreed destination or immediate departure."
    },
    "openai/gpt-5.6-sol": {
     "lat": 12.7,
     "visible_at": 1337.7,
     "cost": 0.026086,
     "raw": "{\"beobachtung\":\"[0:21:39] Marlon: “I've never been to the Wax Museum. I don't know if it's like interesting or not.”\",\"vorhersage\":\"They will still need to choose and navigate to their next stop for several minutes.\",\"reasoning\":\"They have repeatedly asked for a plan while regrouping, and no destination has been selected. Earlier they discussed Beat the Bomb, the Wax Museum, and waiting for Museum of Sex management approval. The card’s latency is acceptable because comparing destinations and organizing departure will outlast the next 30 seconds. A shortlist is more useful now than later, once the group is moving through the crowd.\",\"alternativen\":[{\"karte\":\"Museum filming follow-up\",\"verworfen_weil\":\"Jason is already emailing management and awaiting their response.\"},{\"karte\":\"Protein smoothie order\",\"verworfen_weil\":\"They already placed the order with the store.\"}],\"karte\":true,\"kategorie\":\"place\",\"titel\":\"Choose the next stop\",\"zeile\":\"Compare routes and current entry options before leaving.\",\"aktion\":\"Open a map shortlist with routes and current venue details.\",\"optionen\":[\"Beat the Bomb\",\"Wax Museum\",\"Wait for approval\"],\"haltbar_s\":300,\"konfidenz\":0.82,\"risiko\":\"It would be obsolete if management approves filming or the group chooses a destination before it appears.\",\"grund\":\"Their unresolved next-stop decision is persistent and directly affects departure.\"}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "[0:21:39] Marlon: “I've never been to the Wax Museum. I don't know if it's like interesting or not.”",
     "vorhersage": "They will still need to choose and navigate to their next stop for several minutes.",
     "reasoning": "They have repeatedly asked for a plan while regrouping, and no destination has been selected. Earlier they discussed Beat the Bomb, the Wax Museum, and waiting for Museum of Sex management approval. The card’s latency is acceptable because comparing destinations and organizing departure will outlast the next 30 seconds. A shortlist is more useful now than later, once the group is moving through the crowd.",
     "risiko": "It would be obsolete if management approves filming or the group chooses a destination before it appears.",
     "konfidenz": 0.82,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Museum filming follow-up",
       "verworfen_weil": "Jason is already emailing management and awaiting their response."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Protein smoothie order",
       "verworfen_weil": "They already placed the order with the store."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [
      "Beat the Bomb",
      "Wax Museum",
      "Wait for approval"
     ],
     "karte": true,
     "kategorie": "place",
     "titel": "Choose the next stop",
     "zeile": "Compare routes and current entry options before leaving.",
     "aktion": "Open a map shortlist with routes and current venue details.",
     "haltbar_s": 300,
     "grund": "Their unresolved next-stop decision is persistent and directly affects departure.",
     "verdict": "hit",
     "need": "place",
     "need_start": 626
    },
    "moonshotai/kimi-k3": {
     "lat": 39.2,
     "visible_at": 1364.2,
     "cost": 0.06918,
     "raw": "{\n \"beobachtung\": \"[0:19:43] Speaker 1: 'there's another factory called the Color Factory' / [0:19:53] 'Or we could go to this place called Beat the Bomb... That's fire' / [0:20:17] 'Balloon Museum? I have heard about that' / [0:21:39] Marlon: 'I've never been to the Wax Museum. I don't know if it's like interesting or not, but...'\",\n \"vorhersage\": \"When the card appears (22:10-22:30) the group will still be in the smoothie shop finishing drinks and arguing over the next destination; the decision need persists for several more minutes until they pick a spot and leave.\",\n \"reasoning\": \"The transcript ends mid-debate with four unresolved candidates (Beat the Bomb, Color Factory, Balloon Museum, Wax Museum) and no decision, so a comparison card lands exactly where the conversation is stuck. The 15s lag plus 10-30s display delay creates up to ~45s of blind spot, but a multi-option planning debate that has already run for three minutes survives that, unlike a quick action. Earlier they floated Uber Black but deferred it ('But we're not going though'), so destination comes before transport. Jason's museum callback is still pending, which is the main way this card becomes moot. Now is the right moment because once they pick and walk out, comparing options is wasted.\",\n \"alternativen\": [{\"karte\": \"Order Uber Black pickup\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"No destination chosen yet; they already deferred the ride once, so a transport card is premature.\"}, {\"karte\": \"Reminder: museum management callback pending\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"Jason is handling it via his own email/phone; nothing the card adds.\"}, {\"karte\": \"Note card capturing all brainstormed spots\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"The comparison card already captures the top candidates and is directly actionable.\"}],\n \"karte\": true,\n \"kategorie\": \"place\",\n \"titel\": \"Next spot: compare candidates\",\n \"zeile\": \"Beat the Bomb, Color Factory, Wax Museum — [closing time], [travel time]\",\n \"aktion\": \"Opens side-by-side comparison with [address], [hours], [travel time] plus navigate/book link for each candidate.\",\n \"optionen\": [\"Beat the Bomb\", \"Color Factory\", \"Wax Museum (Times Square)\"],\n \"haltbar_s\": 240,\n \"konfidenz\": 0.62,\n \"risiko\": \"Wrong if they already settled on a spot in the last 15 seconds, or if the museum approves filming and they head back there instead.\",\n \"grund\": \"The group is stuck in an unresolved multi-option debate about where to go next, so a comparison card helps them decide and move.\"\n}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "[0:19:43] Speaker 1: 'there's another factory called the Color Factory' / [0:19:53] 'Or we could go to this place called Beat the Bomb... That's fire' / [0:20:17] 'Balloon Museum? I have heard about that' / [0:21:39] Marlon: 'I've never been to the Wax Museum. I don't know if it's like interesting or not, but...'",
     "vorhersage": "When the card appears (22:10-22:30) the group will still be in the smoothie shop finishing drinks and arguing over the next destination; the decision need persists for several more minutes until they pick a spot and leave.",
     "reasoning": "The transcript ends mid-debate with four unresolved candidates (Beat the Bomb, Color Factory, Balloon Museum, Wax Museum) and no decision, so a comparison card lands exactly where the conversation is stuck. The 15s lag plus 10-30s display delay creates up to ~45s of blind spot, but a multi-option planning debate that has already run for three minutes survives that, unlike a quick action. Earlier they floated Uber Black but deferred it ('But we're not going though'), so destination comes before transport. Jason's museum callback is still pending, which is the main way this card becomes moot. Now is the right moment because once they pick and walk out, comparing options is wasted.",
     "risiko": "Wrong if they already settled on a spot in the last 15 seconds, or if the museum approves filming and they head back there instead.",
     "konfidenz": 0.62,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Order Uber Black pickup",
       "verworfen_weil": "No destination chosen yet; they already deferred the ride once, so a transport card is premature."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Reminder: museum management callback pending",
       "verworfen_weil": "Jason is handling it via his own email/phone; nothing the card adds."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Note card capturing all brainstormed spots",
       "verworfen_weil": "The comparison card already captures the top candidates and is directly actionable."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [
      "Beat the Bomb",
      "Color Factory",
      "Wax Museum (Times Square)"
     ],
     "karte": true,
     "kategorie": "place",
     "titel": "Next spot: compare candidates",
     "zeile": "Beat the Bomb, Color Factory, Wax Museum — [closing time], [travel time]",
     "aktion": "Opens side-by-side comparison with [address], [hours], [travel time] plus navigate/book link for each candidate.",
     "haltbar_s": 240,
     "grund": "The group is stuck in an unresolved multi-option debate about where to go next, so a comparison card helps them decide and move.",
     "verdict": "hit",
     "need": "place",
     "need_start": 626
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "t": 1380,
   "signal": "aufbruch",
   "conf": 0.82,
   "seen_until": 1365,
   "models": {
    "deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash": {
     "lat": 3.1,
     "visible_at": 1388.1,
     "cost": 0.0014868,
     "raw": "{\n  \"beobachtung\": \"[0:22:03] 'Should we call an Uber?' / [0:22:08] 'To where?' — group is stuck in a safe house, still deciding on a destination and transport.\",\n  \"vorhersage\": \"The group will need to book a ride and pick a destination within the next few minutes; the decision and booking will take longer than 30 seconds, so a card remains useful when it appears.\",\n  \"reasoning\": \"The pre-filter 'aufbruch' fired at 0.82, and the transcript confirms the group is actively trying to leave the safe house. They have discussed multiple destinations (Sugar Factory, Color Factory, Beat the Bomb, Wax Museum) but have not settled on one. An Uber is explicitly suggested, and the need to book transport and choose a place will persist for several minutes. Earlier in the stream they were kicked out of the Sex Museum and are now regrouping, so this is a natural decision point. The latency of 10–30 seconds means the card will appear while they are still deliberating.\",\n  \"alternativen\": [\n    {\n      \"karte\": \"Note idea: Sugar Factory / Color Factory / Beat the Bomb options\",\n      \"verworfen_weil\": \"The group is already discussing these verbally; a note card would be redundant and less actionable than a booking card.\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"karte\": \"Follow up with Sex Museum management\",\n      \"verworfen_weil\": \"Jason is already handling that via email/phone; no immediate action needed from the assistant.\"\n    }\n  ],\n  \"karte\": true,\n  \"kategorie\": \"transport\",\n  \"titel\": \"Book ride to next spot\",\n  \"zeile\": \"Pick destination and call Uber\",\n  \"aktion\": \"Open ride‑hailing app with destination options\",\n  \"optionen\": [\n    \"Sugar Factory\",\n    \"Color Factory\",\n    \"Beat the Bomb\"\n  ],\n  \"haltbar_s\": 300,\n  \"konfidenz\": 0.85,\n  \"risiko\": \"If they decide to stay longer or choose a different destination not listed, the card may be ignored or need updating.\",\n  \"grund\": \"The group is actively deciding where to go and how to get there, and a booking card will save time and reduce friction.\"\n}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "[0:22:03] 'Should we call an Uber?' / [0:22:08] 'To where?' — group is stuck in a safe house, still deciding on a destination and transport.",
     "vorhersage": "The group will need to book a ride and pick a destination within the next few minutes; the decision and booking will take longer than 30 seconds, so a card remains useful when it appears.",
     "reasoning": "The pre-filter 'aufbruch' fired at 0.82, and the transcript confirms the group is actively trying to leave the safe house. They have discussed multiple destinations (Sugar Factory, Color Factory, Beat the Bomb, Wax Museum) but have not settled on one. An Uber is explicitly suggested, and the need to book transport and choose a place will persist for several minutes. Earlier in the stream they were kicked out of the Sex Museum and are now regrouping, so this is a natural decision point. The latency of 10–30 seconds means the card will appear while they are still deliberating.",
     "risiko": "If they decide to stay longer or choose a different destination not listed, the card may be ignored or need updating.",
     "konfidenz": 0.85,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Note idea: Sugar Factory / Color Factory / Beat the Bomb options",
       "verworfen_weil": "The group is already discussing these verbally; a note card would be redundant and less actionable than a booking card."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Follow up with Sex Museum management",
       "verworfen_weil": "Jason is already handling that via email/phone; no immediate action needed from the assistant."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [
      "Sugar Factory",
      "Color Factory",
      "Beat the Bomb"
     ],
     "karte": true,
     "kategorie": "transport",
     "titel": "Book ride to next spot",
     "zeile": "Pick destination and call Uber",
     "aktion": "Open ride‑hailing app with destination options",
     "haltbar_s": 300,
     "grund": "The group is actively deciding where to go and how to get there, and a booking card will save time and reduce friction.",
     "verdict": "hit",
     "need": "transport",
     "need_start": 1323
    },
    "z-ai/glm-5.3-flash": {
     "lat": 6.4,
     "visible_at": 1391.4,
     "cost": 0.00152165,
     "raw": "{\n \"beobachtung\": \"[0:22:03] \\\"Alright, where are we going, bro? They're still out there.\\\" / [0:22:06] \\\"Should we call an Uber?\\\" / [0:22:13] \\\"We could go to the Sugar Factory\\\" — group is holed up in the store, crowd outside, no destination agreed.\",\n \"vorhersage\": \"When the card becomes visible (~23:00:10-30) they will still be trapped inside debating where to go and how; a ride-hailing card with destination candidates stays useful for several minutes while they decide.\",\n \"reasoning\": \"The group has been stuck since ~17:00, surrounded by fans, and explicitly raised calling an Uber and Uber Black earlier ([0:17:33]). The destination debate (Sugar Factory, Color Factory, Beat the Bomb, Wax Museum) is still open at 22:45 and won't resolve in under 30 seconds, so the need persists past card latency. A silent card offering a ride with candidate destinations fits the moment without interrupting the banter. The 'aufbruch' pre-filter is plausibly right here: they are actively planning departure.\",\n \"alternativen\": [{\"karte\": \"Text manager re: museum re-entry\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"Jay is already emailing management ([0:17:47]); a card would duplicate in-progress work.\"}, {\"karte\": \"Note: talk to museum manager for promo\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"Idea already assigned to Jay verbally; low urgency now that they were kicked out.\"}],\n \"karte\": true,\n \"kategorie\": \"transport\",\n \"titel\": \"Uber out of here?\",\n \"zeile\": \"Crowd still outside — pick a destination and ride\",\n \"aktion\": \"Opens Uber Black with destination pre-selected\",\n \"optionen\": [\"Sugar Factory\", \"Color Factory\", \"Beat the Bomb\"],\n \"haltbar_s\": 420,\n \"konfidenz\": 0.62,\n \"risiko\": \"If they resolve the destination debate or the crowd disperses within a minute, the card is stale noise; also wrong if they decide to wait for the museum callback instead of leaving.\",\n \"grund\": \"The group is actively stuck and debating an Uber ride with undecided destinations, so a silent transport card with candidate destinations remains useful when it appears.\"\n}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "[0:22:03] \"Alright, where are we going, bro? They're still out there.\" / [0:22:06] \"Should we call an Uber?\" / [0:22:13] \"We could go to the Sugar Factory\" — group is holed up in the store, crowd outside, no destination agreed.",
     "vorhersage": "When the card becomes visible (~23:00:10-30) they will still be trapped inside debating where to go and how; a ride-hailing card with destination candidates stays useful for several minutes while they decide.",
     "reasoning": "The group has been stuck since ~17:00, surrounded by fans, and explicitly raised calling an Uber and Uber Black earlier ([0:17:33]). The destination debate (Sugar Factory, Color Factory, Beat the Bomb, Wax Museum) is still open at 22:45 and won't resolve in under 30 seconds, so the need persists past card latency. A silent card offering a ride with candidate destinations fits the moment without interrupting the banter. The 'aufbruch' pre-filter is plausibly right here: they are actively planning departure.",
     "risiko": "If they resolve the destination debate or the crowd disperses within a minute, the card is stale noise; also wrong if they decide to wait for the museum callback instead of leaving.",
     "konfidenz": 0.62,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Text manager re: museum re-entry",
       "verworfen_weil": "Jay is already emailing management ([0:17:47]); a card would duplicate in-progress work."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Note: talk to museum manager for promo",
       "verworfen_weil": "Idea already assigned to Jay verbally; low urgency now that they were kicked out."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [
      "Sugar Factory",
      "Color Factory",
      "Beat the Bomb"
     ],
     "karte": true,
     "kategorie": "transport",
     "titel": "Uber out of here?",
     "zeile": "Crowd still outside — pick a destination and ride",
     "aktion": "Opens Uber Black with destination pre-selected",
     "haltbar_s": 420,
     "grund": "The group is actively stuck and debating an Uber ride with undecided destinations, so a silent transport card with candidate destinations remains useful when it appears.",
     "verdict": "hit",
     "need": "transport",
     "need_start": 1323
    },
    "openai/gpt-5.6-luna": {
     "lat": 8.3,
     "visible_at": 1393.3,
     "cost": 0.0030023,
     "raw": "{\n  \"beobachtung\": \"\\\"Should we call an Uber?\\\" followed by \\\"To where?\\\" [22:03–22:08], then discussion of Sugar Factory and Color Factory [22:13–22:40]\",\n  \"vorhersage\": \"When visible, the group will still need to choose a destination and arrange transport for several minutes.\",\n  \"reasoning\": \"They were forced out of the Sex Museum and are regrouping while nearby people remain outside. They explicitly considered calling an Uber but have not settled on where to go. The unresolved destination makes a transport chooser useful immediately, and the 15-second transcript lag still leaves time before the card appears. Earlier discussion shows Sugar Factory and Color Factory are the current leading options, while overstimulation makes a quick departure likely.\",\n  \"alternativen\": [\n    {\n      \"karte\": \"Revisit Sex Museum approval\",\n      \"verworfen_weil\": \"Management approval was uncertain and the immediate need is leaving or regrouping.\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"karte\": \"Compare attractions\",\n      \"verworfen_weil\": \"They need transport now, not a broad research list.\"\n    }\n  ],\n  \"karte\": true,\n  \"kategorie\": \"transport\",\n  \"titel\": \"Choose Next Stop\",\n  \"zeile\": \"Pick a destination to open Uber\",\n  \"aktion\": \"Open Uber with the selected destination\",\n  \"optionen\": [\n    \"Sugar Factory\",\n    \"Color Factory\",\n    \"Wax Museum\"\n  ],\n  \"haltbar_s\": 600,\n  \"konfidenz\": 0.88,\n  \"risiko\": \"Annoying if they already booked a ride, leave with someone else, or receive approval to return.\",\n  \"grund\": \"The group is actively trying to decide where to go and how to leave.\"\n}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "\"Should we call an Uber?\" followed by \"To where?\" [22:03–22:08], then discussion of Sugar Factory and Color Factory [22:13–22:40]",
     "vorhersage": "When visible, the group will still need to choose a destination and arrange transport for several minutes.",
     "reasoning": "They were forced out of the Sex Museum and are regrouping while nearby people remain outside. They explicitly considered calling an Uber but have not settled on where to go. The unresolved destination makes a transport chooser useful immediately, and the 15-second transcript lag still leaves time before the card appears. Earlier discussion shows Sugar Factory and Color Factory are the current leading options, while overstimulation makes a quick departure likely.",
     "risiko": "Annoying if they already booked a ride, leave with someone else, or receive approval to return.",
     "konfidenz": 0.88,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Revisit Sex Museum approval",
       "verworfen_weil": "Management approval was uncertain and the immediate need is leaving or regrouping."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Compare attractions",
       "verworfen_weil": "They need transport now, not a broad research list."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [
      "Sugar Factory",
      "Color Factory",
      "Wax Museum"
     ],
     "karte": true,
     "kategorie": "transport",
     "titel": "Choose Next Stop",
     "zeile": "Pick a destination to open Uber",
     "aktion": "Open Uber with the selected destination",
     "haltbar_s": 600,
     "grund": "The group is actively trying to decide where to go and how to leave.",
     "verdict": "repeat",
     "need": "transport",
     "need_start": 1323
    },
    "google/gemini-3.8-flash": {
     "lat": 15.4,
     "visible_at": 1400.4,
     "cost": 0.01497525,
     "raw": "{\"beobachtung\": \"[0:22:03] Unknown: 'Should we call an Uber?' / [0:22:08] Speaker 6: 'bro. To where?' followed by brainstorming Sugar Factory vs. Color Factory up to [0:22:40]\", \"reasoning\": \"The 'aufbruch' signal is a false positive triggered by the mention of calling an Uber. The group is still finishing their smoothies inside the store and actively debating potential spots without consensus on a destination. Any transport card is premature until they settle on a location, and opening Uber takes under 30 seconds once decided.\", \"alternativen\": [{\"karte\": \"Uber Black rufen\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"Premature since the group has not decided on a destination yet ('bro. To where?').\"}, {\"karte\": \"Sugar Factory vs. Color Factory Info\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"Unprompted backseating while the group is freely spitballing ideas for content.\"}], \"karte\": false, \"grund\": \"The group has not agreed on a destination yet and is still casually debating options inside the shop.\"}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "[0:22:03] Unknown: 'Should we call an Uber?' / [0:22:08] Speaker 6: 'bro. To where?' followed by brainstorming Sugar Factory vs. Color Factory up to [0:22:40]",
     "vorhersage": "",
     "reasoning": "The 'aufbruch' signal is a false positive triggered by the mention of calling an Uber. The group is still finishing their smoothies inside the store and actively debating potential spots without consensus on a destination. Any transport card is premature until they settle on a location, and opening Uber takes under 30 seconds once decided.",
     "risiko": "",
     "konfidenz": null,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Uber Black rufen",
       "verworfen_weil": "Premature since the group has not decided on a destination yet ('bro. To where?')."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Sugar Factory vs. Color Factory Info",
       "verworfen_weil": "Unprompted backseating while the group is freely spitballing ideas for content."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [],
     "verdict": "silent",
     "karte": false,
     "grund": "The group has not agreed on a destination yet and is still casually debating options inside the shop."
    },
    "openai/gpt-5.6-sol": {
     "lat": 9.6,
     "visible_at": 1394.6,
     "cost": 0.025901,
     "raw": "{\"beobachtung\":\"[0:22:03–0:22:24] “Should we call an Uber?” “To where?” “We can go to the Sugar Factory, we go to the Color Factory.”\",\"vorhersage\":\"They will still need to choose an Uber destination and leave the crowded reset spot for several minutes.\",\"reasoning\":\"They have discussed alternate destinations repeatedly without settling on one, so this is more durable than a quick question. A destination card is useful now because ordering the Uber depends on the decision. The 10–30 second display latency may let them decide first, but their indecision has already lasted several minutes. Earlier they wanted an enclosed place to regroup and were considering Sugar Factory, Color Factory, and the wax museum.\",\"alternativen\":[{\"karte\":\"Show nearby Uber pickup point\",\"verworfen_weil\":\"No reliable current location or safe pickup point appears in the transcript.\"},{\"karte\":\"Follow up with museum management\",\"verworfen_weil\":\"Jason already provided contact details and is waiting for approval.\"}],\"karte\":true,\"kategorie\":\"transport\",\"titel\":\"Pick the Uber destination\",\"zeile\":\"Choose the next stop, then open its route.\",\"aktion\":\"Opens map routes to the selected destination.\",\"optionen\":[\"Sugar Factory\",\"Color Factory\",\"Wax Museum\"],\"haltbar_s\":180,\"konfidenz\":0.78,\"risiko\":\"Annoying if they have already chosen a destination or these names match multiple locations.\",\"grund\":\"The group needs a concrete destination before it can order the Uber and leave.\"}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "[0:22:03–0:22:24] “Should we call an Uber?” “To where?” “We can go to the Sugar Factory, we go to the Color Factory.”",
     "vorhersage": "They will still need to choose an Uber destination and leave the crowded reset spot for several minutes.",
     "reasoning": "They have discussed alternate destinations repeatedly without settling on one, so this is more durable than a quick question. A destination card is useful now because ordering the Uber depends on the decision. The 10–30 second display latency may let them decide first, but their indecision has already lasted several minutes. Earlier they wanted an enclosed place to regroup and were considering Sugar Factory, Color Factory, and the wax museum.",
     "risiko": "Annoying if they have already chosen a destination or these names match multiple locations.",
     "konfidenz": 0.78,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Show nearby Uber pickup point",
       "verworfen_weil": "No reliable current location or safe pickup point appears in the transcript."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Follow up with museum management",
       "verworfen_weil": "Jason already provided contact details and is waiting for approval."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [
      "Sugar Factory",
      "Color Factory",
      "Wax Museum"
     ],
     "karte": true,
     "kategorie": "transport",
     "titel": "Pick the Uber destination",
     "zeile": "Choose the next stop, then open its route.",
     "aktion": "Opens map routes to the selected destination.",
     "haltbar_s": 180,
     "grund": "The group needs a concrete destination before it can order the Uber and leave.",
     "verdict": "hit",
     "need": "transport",
     "need_start": 1323
    },
    "moonshotai/kimi-k3": {
     "lat": 93.6,
     "visible_at": 1478.6,
     "cost": 0.0739326,
     "raw": "{\n \"beobachtung\": \"[0:22:03] 'Should we call an Uber?' — 'Probably a good idea, bro. To where?' and [0:22:13–0:22:40] the group bouncing between 'Sugar Factory', 'Color Factory' and earlier 'Beat the Bomb' with no decision\",\n \"vorhersage\": \"When the card appears (~23:10–23:30) the group will still be settling the destination and then needs transport; the venue debate has already run 3+ minutes, so the need likely persists another 3–5 minutes.\",\n \"reasoning\": \"Now is right because the Uber question is explicitly on the table but blocked on destination, and the group has cycled through Sugar Factory, Color Factory, Beat the Bomb, Balloon and Wax Museum since ~19:15 without committing. Not later, because once they step back into the crowd and hail/Book something ad hoc, the decision window closes and a card becomes clutter. The 10–30s latency is tolerable: multi-minute indecision rarely resolves in under 30 seconds, and even if they pick a spot, the card's route/Uber action on the chosen option stays useful. From earlier I know the Sex Museum re-entry is only a passive wait for a manager's text on Jason's phone, so the live thread is leaving for one of the candidate venues.\",\n \"alternativen\": [\n  {\"karte\": \"Order Uber now card\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"Destination is undecided ('To where?' unanswered), so a booking card without a target is premature and annoying.\"},\n  {\"karte\": \"Museum callback followup card\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"Purely passive wait for a text on Jason's phone; no tap action from Marlon helps, and the group has deprioritized it ('Sex Museum said no').\"},\n  {\"karte\": \"Stay silent\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"Risk of 30s self-serve exists, but 3.5 minutes of unresolved debate plus an explicit Uber question makes decision support worth one card.\"}\n ],\n \"karte\": true,\n \"kategorie\": \"place\",\n \"titel\": \"Next stop: pick your spot\",\n \"zeile\": \"Sugar Factory, Color Factory, Beat the Bomb — [open until], [min away]. Tap to compare.\",\n \"aktion\": \"Opens a side-by-side of the three spots (hours, distance, tickets); tapping one launches maps route or Uber request.\",\n \"optionen\": [\"Sugar Factory — [x] min away\", \"Color Factory — [x] min away\", \"Beat the Bomb — [x] min away\"],\n \"haltbar_s\": 240,\n \"konfidenz\": 0.7,\n \"risiko\": \"Annoying if they lock a destination and book an Uber themselves within the next 30 seconds, or if the museum manager texts back and they pivot to returning there.\",\n \"grund\": \"The group has been undecided between three venues for minutes and explicitly raised calling an Uber, so a comparison card directly supports the imminent departure.\"\n}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "[0:22:03] 'Should we call an Uber?' — 'Probably a good idea, bro. To where?' and [0:22:13–0:22:40] the group bouncing between 'Sugar Factory', 'Color Factory' and earlier 'Beat the Bomb' with no decision",
     "vorhersage": "When the card appears (~23:10–23:30) the group will still be settling the destination and then needs transport; the venue debate has already run 3+ minutes, so the need likely persists another 3–5 minutes.",
     "reasoning": "Now is right because the Uber question is explicitly on the table but blocked on destination, and the group has cycled through Sugar Factory, Color Factory, Beat the Bomb, Balloon and Wax Museum since ~19:15 without committing. Not later, because once they step back into the crowd and hail/Book something ad hoc, the decision window closes and a card becomes clutter. The 10–30s latency is tolerable: multi-minute indecision rarely resolves in under 30 seconds, and even if they pick a spot, the card's route/Uber action on the chosen option stays useful. From earlier I know the Sex Museum re-entry is only a passive wait for a manager's text on Jason's phone, so the live thread is leaving for one of the candidate venues.",
     "risiko": "Annoying if they lock a destination and book an Uber themselves within the next 30 seconds, or if the museum manager texts back and they pivot to returning there.",
     "konfidenz": 0.7,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Order Uber now card",
       "verworfen_weil": "Destination is undecided ('To where?' unanswered), so a booking card without a target is premature and annoying."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Museum callback followup card",
       "verworfen_weil": "Purely passive wait for a text on Jason's phone; no tap action from Marlon helps, and the group has deprioritized it ('Sex Museum said no')."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Stay silent",
       "verworfen_weil": "Risk of 30s self-serve exists, but 3.5 minutes of unresolved debate plus an explicit Uber question makes decision support worth one card."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [
      "Sugar Factory — [x] min away",
      "Color Factory — [x] min away",
      "Beat the Bomb — [x] min away"
     ],
     "karte": true,
     "kategorie": "place",
     "titel": "Next stop: pick your spot",
     "zeile": "Sugar Factory, Color Factory, Beat the Bomb — [open until], [min away]. Tap to compare.",
     "aktion": "Opens a side-by-side of the three spots (hours, distance, tickets); tapping one launches maps route or Uber request.",
     "haltbar_s": 240,
     "grund": "The group has been undecided between three venues for minutes and explicitly raised calling an Uber, so a comparison card directly supports the imminent departure.",
     "verdict": "late",
     "late_by": 86,
     "need": "place",
     "need_start": 626
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "t": 1440,
   "signal": "aufbruch",
   "conf": 0.77,
   "seen_until": 1425,
   "models": {
    "deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash": {
     "lat": 23.9,
     "visible_at": 1468.9,
     "cost": 0.0013972,
     "raw": "{\n  \"beobachtung\": \"[0:23:13] Speaker 1: 'Alright bet, I'm about to get an Uber to the Sugar Factory.' and [0:23:43] Marlon: 'Is Uber on his way? Yeah. How long, how long? It's outside. It's here? But wait, we gotta wait for our food.'\",\n  \"vorhersage\": \"The group is deciding between Sugar Factory, Color Factory, Beat the Bomb, Balloon Museum, and Wax Museum while an Uber is already outside and food is still pending. They will need a destination decision and a plan for the next 10-30 minutes.\",\n  \"reasoning\": \"The pre-filter 'aufbruch' fired because the group is actively leaving the safe house and an Uber is already waiting outside. The destination is still unresolved across multiple options, and the transcript shows them debating Sugar Factory vs Color Factory vs Beat the Bomb. This is a long-lived need (choosing where to go next) that won't resolve in under 30 seconds. The 10-30 second card latency means the Uber may already be loading, so the card must be actionable immediately. Earlier in the stream they were kicked out of the Sex Museum and are looking for a reset activity.\",\n  \"alternativen\": [\n    {\"karte\": \"Book Uber Black\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"An Uber is already outside per the transcript, so booking is redundant.\"},\n    {\"karte\": \"Note Sugar Factory idea\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"They are actively deciding, not just brainstorming; a note card is too passive.\"}\n  ],\n  \"karte\": true,\n  \"kategorie\": \"place\",\n  \"titel\": \"Pick next NYC spot\",\n  \"zeile\": \"Uber waiting — choose Sugar Factory, Color Factory, or Beat the Bomb\",\n  \"aktion\": \"Opens a comparison card with the three debated venues and a tap-to-navigate option\",\n  \"optionen\": [\"Sugar Factory\", \"Color Factory\", \"Beat the Bomb\"],\n  \"haltbar_s\": 600,\n  \"konfidenz\": 0.72,\n  \"risiko\": \"If they already decided and are in the Uber, this card is annoying and late.\",\n  \"grund\": \"The group is mid-departure with an unresolved destination and an Uber already outside, so a quick venue picker is useful now.\"\n}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "[0:23:13] Speaker 1: 'Alright bet, I'm about to get an Uber to the Sugar Factory.' and [0:23:43] Marlon: 'Is Uber on his way? Yeah. How long, how long? It's outside. It's here? But wait, we gotta wait for our food.'",
     "vorhersage": "The group is deciding between Sugar Factory, Color Factory, Beat the Bomb, Balloon Museum, and Wax Museum while an Uber is already outside and food is still pending. They will need a destination decision and a plan for the next 10-30 minutes.",
     "reasoning": "The pre-filter 'aufbruch' fired because the group is actively leaving the safe house and an Uber is already waiting outside. The destination is still unresolved across multiple options, and the transcript shows them debating Sugar Factory vs Color Factory vs Beat the Bomb. This is a long-lived need (choosing where to go next) that won't resolve in under 30 seconds. The 10-30 second card latency means the Uber may already be loading, so the card must be actionable immediately. Earlier in the stream they were kicked out of the Sex Museum and are looking for a reset activity.",
     "risiko": "If they already decided and are in the Uber, this card is annoying and late.",
     "konfidenz": 0.72,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Book Uber Black",
       "verworfen_weil": "An Uber is already outside per the transcript, so booking is redundant."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Note Sugar Factory idea",
       "verworfen_weil": "They are actively deciding, not just brainstorming; a note card is too passive."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [
      "Sugar Factory",
      "Color Factory",
      "Beat the Bomb"
     ],
     "karte": true,
     "kategorie": "place",
     "titel": "Pick next NYC spot",
     "zeile": "Uber waiting — choose Sugar Factory, Color Factory, or Beat the Bomb",
     "aktion": "Opens a comparison card with the three debated venues and a tap-to-navigate option",
     "haltbar_s": 600,
     "grund": "The group is mid-departure with an unresolved destination and an Uber already outside, so a quick venue picker is useful now.",
     "verdict": "late",
     "late_by": 76,
     "need": "place",
     "need_start": 626
    },
    "z-ai/glm-5.3-flash": {
     "lat": 5.9,
     "visible_at": 1450.9,
     "cost": 0.00157945,
     "raw": "{\n \"beobachtung\": \"[0:17:47] Speaker 6: \\\"Uh, I'm emailing right now, but they have my phone number, so they're gonna text if their management...\\\" and [0:18:20] \\\"there's a certain person that has to come through and approve everything\\\"; group then pivots to Sugar Factory plans at [0:22:13]-[0:23:13] and orders an Uber.\",\n \"vorhersage\": \"Once they're in the Uber to Sugar Factory (card visible ~10-30s from now), the pending museum management approval Jay is waiting on will still be unresolved and easily forgotten amid the crowd and travel; the need persists for the rest of the day.\",\n \"reasoning\": \"Jay said management would text his phone about re-entry approval, and Marlon called it a good promo idea earlier ([0:09:07]-[0:09:28]). The group is now distracted by crowds, smoothies, and booking an Uber to Sugar Factory, so the followup risks being lost. The card becomes visible as they depart, a natural transition moment. This is a lasting followup, not a sub-30-second need, so it qualifies.\",\n \"alternativen\": [{\"karte\": \"Uber waiting outside - grab food\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"they already know the Uber is outside and are actively coordinating the wait themselves; resolved in seconds\"}, {\"karte\": \"Sugar Factory destination info\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"they already decided and booked the ride themselves; a card would duplicate what they just did\"}],\n \"karte\": true,\n \"kategorie\": \"followup\",\n \"titel\": \"Museum approval pending\",\n \"zeile\": \"Jay awaits manager text about museum re-entry\",\n \"aktion\": \"Open a note to track the museum management approval\",\n \"optionen\": [\"Add reminder note\", \"Mark resolved later\", \"Dismiss\"],\n \"haltbar_s\": 7200,\n \"konfidenz\": 0.55,\n \"risiko\": \"Annoying if management already texted a rejection or the group has clearly abandoned the museum idea; pre-filter 'aufbruch' may have meant only the Uber departure.\",\n \"grund\": \"The museum re-entry approval is an unresolved followup that will be forgotten once they leave for Sugar Factory.\"\n}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "[0:17:47] Speaker 6: \"Uh, I'm emailing right now, but they have my phone number, so they're gonna text if their management...\" and [0:18:20] \"there's a certain person that has to come through and approve everything\"; group then pivots to Sugar Factory plans at [0:22:13]-[0:23:13] and orders an Uber.",
     "vorhersage": "Once they're in the Uber to Sugar Factory (card visible ~10-30s from now), the pending museum management approval Jay is waiting on will still be unresolved and easily forgotten amid the crowd and travel; the need persists for the rest of the day.",
     "reasoning": "Jay said management would text his phone about re-entry approval, and Marlon called it a good promo idea earlier ([0:09:07]-[0:09:28]). The group is now distracted by crowds, smoothies, and booking an Uber to Sugar Factory, so the followup risks being lost. The card becomes visible as they depart, a natural transition moment. This is a lasting followup, not a sub-30-second need, so it qualifies.",
     "risiko": "Annoying if management already texted a rejection or the group has clearly abandoned the museum idea; pre-filter 'aufbruch' may have meant only the Uber departure.",
     "konfidenz": 0.55,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Uber waiting outside - grab food",
       "verworfen_weil": "they already know the Uber is outside and are actively coordinating the wait themselves; resolved in seconds"
      },
      {
       "karte": "Sugar Factory destination info",
       "verworfen_weil": "they already decided and booked the ride themselves; a card would duplicate what they just did"
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [
      "Add reminder note",
      "Mark resolved later",
      "Dismiss"
     ],
     "karte": true,
     "kategorie": "followup",
     "titel": "Museum approval pending",
     "zeile": "Jay awaits manager text about museum re-entry",
     "aktion": "Open a note to track the museum management approval",
     "haltbar_s": 7200,
     "grund": "The museum re-entry approval is an unresolved followup that will be forgotten once they leave for Sugar Factory.",
     "verdict": "repeat",
     "need": "followup",
     "need_start": 547
    },
    "openai/gpt-5.6-luna": {
     "lat": 5.9,
     "visible_at": 1450.9,
     "cost": 0.00275165,
     "raw": "{\n  \"beobachtung\": \"At 23:13, Speaker 1 said, \\\"I'm about to get an Uber to the Sugar Factory,\\\" and at 23:43 Marlon asked, \\\"Is Uber on his way?\\\" followed by \\\"It's here? But wait, we gotta wait for our food.\\\"\",\n  \"reasoning\": \"The group has already selected the Sugar Factory and the Uber is reportedly present. By the time a card appears, they will likely be collecting food and getting into the vehicle, an action that may resolve within seconds. A destination or route card would duplicate what they are already handling and could distract them while boarding. Earlier discussion shows the plan is still somewhat fluid, but no durable booking or navigation need is clearly established.\",\n  \"alternativen\": [\n    {\n      \"karte\": \"Navigate to Sugar Factory\",\n      \"verworfen_weil\": \"The Uber is already there and the destination was verbally decided.\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"karte\": \"Choose next attraction\",\n      \"verworfen_weil\": \"They are departing now, and selecting another venue can wait until arrival.\"\n    }\n  ],\n  \"karte\": false,\n  \"grund\": \"The likely departure need will be resolved before a card becomes visible, so showing one would be redundant.\"\n}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "At 23:13, Speaker 1 said, \"I'm about to get an Uber to the Sugar Factory,\" and at 23:43 Marlon asked, \"Is Uber on his way?\" followed by \"It's here? But wait, we gotta wait for our food.\"",
     "vorhersage": "",
     "reasoning": "The group has already selected the Sugar Factory and the Uber is reportedly present. By the time a card appears, they will likely be collecting food and getting into the vehicle, an action that may resolve within seconds. A destination or route card would duplicate what they are already handling and could distract them while boarding. Earlier discussion shows the plan is still somewhat fluid, but no durable booking or navigation need is clearly established.",
     "risiko": "",
     "konfidenz": null,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Navigate to Sugar Factory",
       "verworfen_weil": "The Uber is already there and the destination was verbally decided."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Choose next attraction",
       "verworfen_weil": "They are departing now, and selecting another venue can wait until arrival."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [],
     "verdict": "silent",
     "karte": false,
     "grund": "The likely departure need will be resolved before a card becomes visible, so showing one would be redundant."
    },
    "google/gemini-3.8-flash": {
     "lat": 11.0,
     "visible_at": 1456.0,
     "cost": 0.012687,
     "raw": "{\"beobachtung\": \"Speaker 1 announces calling an Uber to Sugar Factory, and Marlon asks 'Is Uber on his way?' with the answer 'It's outside' at [0:23:44].\", \"reasoning\": \"The pre-filter flagged departure ('aufbruch'), but an Uber has already been hailed by someone in the group and is currently waiting outside. Marlon and the group are simply waiting to pick up their smoothies before walking out to the car. Marlon does not need transport options, navigation, or immediate destination details on his screen while rushing out to the vehicle.\", \"alternativen\": [{\"karte\": \"Call Uber / Transport to Sugar Factory\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"An Uber was already ordered by a friend and is waiting outside.\"}, {\"karte\": \"Sugar Factory reservation / info\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"Premature; the group has not requested booking or info, and they will be traveling in the car for the next 15-20 minutes.\"}], \"karte\": false, \"grund\": \"Transportation is already arranged and waiting outside, so no assistive action is required.\"}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "Speaker 1 announces calling an Uber to Sugar Factory, and Marlon asks 'Is Uber on his way?' with the answer 'It's outside' at [0:23:44].",
     "vorhersage": "",
     "reasoning": "The pre-filter flagged departure ('aufbruch'), but an Uber has already been hailed by someone in the group and is currently waiting outside. Marlon and the group are simply waiting to pick up their smoothies before walking out to the car. Marlon does not need transport options, navigation, or immediate destination details on his screen while rushing out to the vehicle.",
     "risiko": "",
     "konfidenz": null,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Call Uber / Transport to Sugar Factory",
       "verworfen_weil": "An Uber was already ordered by a friend and is waiting outside."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Sugar Factory reservation / info",
       "verworfen_weil": "Premature; the group has not requested booking or info, and they will be traveling in the car for the next 15-20 minutes."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [],
     "verdict": "silent",
     "karte": false,
     "grund": "Transportation is already arranged and waiting outside, so no assistive action is required."
    },
    "openai/gpt-5.6-sol": {
     "lat": 6.6,
     "visible_at": 1451.6,
     "cost": 0.0244885,
     "raw": "{\"beobachtung\":\"[0:23:43] Marlon: “Is Uber on his way? … It’s outside. It’s here? But wait, we gotta wait for our food.”\",\"reasoning\":\"The departure is already coordinated: an Uber is outside and the group knows they must collect their food first. By the time a card appears, they will likely either be boarding or still handling the pickup, both of which are visible and immediate tasks. Uber details can be checked in the app or with the friend who booked it in under 30 seconds. Earlier destination discussion ended with Sugar Factory, but there is no unresolved request for directions or a booking.\",\"alternativen\":[{\"karte\":\"Open Uber trip details\",\"verworfen_weil\":\"The ride was booked by someone else and its status was just confirmed aloud.\"},{\"karte\":\"Sugar Factory destination card\",\"verworfen_weil\":\"They have already selected it as the Uber destination; showing it now would duplicate the active trip.\"},{\"karte\":\"Remember the smoothies\",\"verworfen_weil\":\"Marlon explicitly noticed they must wait for the food, so no reminder is needed.\"}],\"karte\":false,\"grund\":\"The departure need is already being handled and no durable unresolved task remains.\"}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "[0:23:43] Marlon: “Is Uber on his way? … It’s outside. It’s here? But wait, we gotta wait for our food.”",
     "vorhersage": "",
     "reasoning": "The departure is already coordinated: an Uber is outside and the group knows they must collect their food first. By the time a card appears, they will likely either be boarding or still handling the pickup, both of which are visible and immediate tasks. Uber details can be checked in the app or with the friend who booked it in under 30 seconds. Earlier destination discussion ended with Sugar Factory, but there is no unresolved request for directions or a booking.",
     "risiko": "",
     "konfidenz": null,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Open Uber trip details",
       "verworfen_weil": "The ride was booked by someone else and its status was just confirmed aloud."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Sugar Factory destination card",
       "verworfen_weil": "They have already selected it as the Uber destination; showing it now would duplicate the active trip."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Remember the smoothies",
       "verworfen_weil": "Marlon explicitly noticed they must wait for the food, so no reminder is needed."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [],
     "verdict": "silent",
     "karte": false,
     "grund": "The departure need is already being handled and no durable unresolved task remains."
    },
    "moonshotai/kimi-k3": {
     "lat": 202.8,
     "visible_at": 1647.8,
     "cost": 0.0458325,
     "raw": "{\n \"beobachtung\": \"[0:23:13] Speaker 1: 'Alright bet, I'm about to get an Uber to the Sugar Factory.' and [0:23:43] Marlon: 'Is Uber on his way? ... It's outside. It's here? But wait, we gotta wait for our food.'\",\n \"vorhersage\": \"When the card appears (~24:10-24:40) the group is grabbing their smoothies and piling into the Uber. During the ~10-20 min ride and on arrival they'll want to know what Sugar Factory actually is, its hours, address and walk-in situation — a need that lasts the whole ride.\",\n \"reasoning\": \"The departure is real: Uber ordered at 23:13, arrived by 23:43, destination Sugar Factory after the Sex Museum fell through. The food-vs-driver crunch resolves in minutes and the booking sits on Lacey's phone, so live driver status on Marlon's screen would be invented — avoided. The durable need is the venue itself: Marlon repeatedly asked what Sugar Factory even is ('That's not a factory, that's a store'), and hours/address info stays useful through the ride and arrival. The latency actually helps: the card lands exactly when they're settled in the car with time to read. Confidence is moderate because they debated Color Factory and Beat the Bomb minutes ago and could still pivot.\",\n \"alternativen\": [\n  {\"karte\": \"Driver-waiting nudge with quick timer to beat wait fees\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"Uber is on Lacey's phone, the crunch resolves in minutes, and any live driver status would be invented.\"},\n  {\"karte\": \"Followup note: Sex Museum manager approval still pending\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"Jason owns that email thread, nothing actionable for Marlon right now, better surfaced later if no callback arrives.\"},\n  {\"karte\": \"Color Factory vs Sugar Factory comparison\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"Sugar Factory is already locked in as the Uber destination; re-opening the debate adds noise.\"}\n ],\n \"karte\": true,\n \"kategorie\": \"place\",\n \"titel\": \"Sugar Factory: hours & info\",\n \"zeile\": \"Candy restaurant & store at [address] — tap for hours, menu, and walk-in wait.\",\n \"aktion\": \"Opens the Sugar Factory place page with address, today's hours, menu and directions from drop-off.\",\n \"optionen\": [\"Open in Maps\", \"Check today's hours\", \"Share with Lacy & Jason\"],\n \"haltbar_s\": 1200,\n \"konfidenz\": 0.6,\n \"risiko\": \"Annoying if they pivot to Color Factory or Beat the Bomb mid-ride, or redundant if Lacy already has everything on his phone.\",\n \"grund\": \"The Uber to Sugar Factory is locked in, so the lasting need is venue info — what it is, hours, address — for the ride and arrival.\"\n}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "[0:23:13] Speaker 1: 'Alright bet, I'm about to get an Uber to the Sugar Factory.' and [0:23:43] Marlon: 'Is Uber on his way? ... It's outside. It's here? But wait, we gotta wait for our food.'",
     "vorhersage": "When the card appears (~24:10-24:40) the group is grabbing their smoothies and piling into the Uber. During the ~10-20 min ride and on arrival they'll want to know what Sugar Factory actually is, its hours, address and walk-in situation — a need that lasts the whole ride.",
     "reasoning": "The departure is real: Uber ordered at 23:13, arrived by 23:43, destination Sugar Factory after the Sex Museum fell through. The food-vs-driver crunch resolves in minutes and the booking sits on Lacey's phone, so live driver status on Marlon's screen would be invented — avoided. The durable need is the venue itself: Marlon repeatedly asked what Sugar Factory even is ('That's not a factory, that's a store'), and hours/address info stays useful through the ride and arrival. The latency actually helps: the card lands exactly when they're settled in the car with time to read. Confidence is moderate because they debated Color Factory and Beat the Bomb minutes ago and could still pivot.",
     "risiko": "Annoying if they pivot to Color Factory or Beat the Bomb mid-ride, or redundant if Lacy already has everything on his phone.",
     "konfidenz": 0.6,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Driver-waiting nudge with quick timer to beat wait fees",
       "verworfen_weil": "Uber is on Lacey's phone, the crunch resolves in minutes, and any live driver status would be invented."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Followup note: Sex Museum manager approval still pending",
       "verworfen_weil": "Jason owns that email thread, nothing actionable for Marlon right now, better surfaced later if no callback arrives."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Color Factory vs Sugar Factory comparison",
       "verworfen_weil": "Sugar Factory is already locked in as the Uber destination; re-opening the debate adds noise."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [
      "Open in Maps",
      "Check today's hours",
      "Share with Lacy & Jason"
     ],
     "karte": true,
     "kategorie": "place",
     "titel": "Sugar Factory: hours & info",
     "zeile": "Candy restaurant & store at [address] — tap for hours, menu, and walk-in wait.",
     "aktion": "Opens the Sugar Factory place page with address, today's hours, menu and directions from drop-off.",
     "haltbar_s": 1200,
     "grund": "The Uber to Sugar Factory is locked in, so the lasting need is venue info — what it is, hours, address — for the ride and arrival.",
     "verdict": "late",
     "late_by": 255,
     "need": "place",
     "need_start": 626
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "t": 1680,
   "signal": "aufbruch",
   "conf": 0.61,
   "seen_until": 1665,
   "models": {
    "deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash": {
     "lat": 3.5,
     "visible_at": 1688.5,
     "cost": 0.0035604,
     "raw": "{\n  \"beobachtung\": \"[0:22:13] Speaker 4: \\\"Whatever. Sex Museum said no. We could go, I'm just saying we could go to the Sugar Factory.\\\" and [0:23:13] Speaker 1: \\\"Alright bet, I'm about to get an Uber to the Sugar Factory.\\\"\",\n  \"vorhersage\": \"The group is still deciding between Sugar Factory, Color Factory, Beat the Bomb, Balloon Museum, and Wax Museum while waiting for their smoothies and Uber. They will need a concrete destination and transport options for at least the next 10-20 minutes.\",\n  \"reasoning\": \"The 'aufbruch' signal fired because the group is actively planning their next move after being kicked out of the museum and hiding in a smoothie shop. They have not committed to a destination yet, and the Uber is already outside but they are waiting for food. A card with options could help them decide quickly. The latency means the card will appear around 28:10-28:30, by which time they may still be deliberating or just leaving. Earlier in the stream, they were kicked out of the Sex Museum and are now regrouping, so a followup on the museum situation or transport to a new spot is relevant.\",\n  \"alternativen\": [\n    {\n      \"karte\": \"Follow up with Sex Museum management\",\n      \"verworfen_weil\": \"They already have Jay handling it via email/phone, and it's a passive wait, not an immediate action.\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"karte\": \"Book Uber Black\",\n      \"verworfen_weil\": \"They already have an Uber outside and are waiting for food; booking another would be redundant.\"\n    }\n  ],\n  \"karte\": true,\n  \"kategorie\": \"place\",\n  \"titel\": \"Choose next NYC spot\",\n  \"zeile\": \"Options: Sugar Factory, Color Factory, Beat the Bomb, Wax Museum\",\n  \"aktion\": \"Tap to see details and directions for each option\",\n  \"optionen\": [\n    \"Sugar Factory\",\n    \"Color Factory\",\n    \"Beat the Bomb\"\n  ],\n  \"haltbar_s\": 600,\n  \"konfidenz\": 0.8,\n  \"risiko\": \"If they have already decided and left while the card appears, it could be annoying. Also, if they are too overwhelmed, they might ignore it.\",\n  \"grund\": \"The group is actively debating multiple destinations and needs a quick way to compare and choose.\"\n}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "[0:22:13] Speaker 4: \"Whatever. Sex Museum said no. We could go, I'm just saying we could go to the Sugar Factory.\" and [0:23:13] Speaker 1: \"Alright bet, I'm about to get an Uber to the Sugar Factory.\"",
     "vorhersage": "The group is still deciding between Sugar Factory, Color Factory, Beat the Bomb, Balloon Museum, and Wax Museum while waiting for their smoothies and Uber. They will need a concrete destination and transport options for at least the next 10-20 minutes.",
     "reasoning": "The 'aufbruch' signal fired because the group is actively planning their next move after being kicked out of the museum and hiding in a smoothie shop. They have not committed to a destination yet, and the Uber is already outside but they are waiting for food. A card with options could help them decide quickly. The latency means the card will appear around 28:10-28:30, by which time they may still be deliberating or just leaving. Earlier in the stream, they were kicked out of the Sex Museum and are now regrouping, so a followup on the museum situation or transport to a new spot is relevant.",
     "risiko": "If they have already decided and left while the card appears, it could be annoying. Also, if they are too overwhelmed, they might ignore it.",
     "konfidenz": 0.8,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Follow up with Sex Museum management",
       "verworfen_weil": "They already have Jay handling it via email/phone, and it's a passive wait, not an immediate action."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Book Uber Black",
       "verworfen_weil": "They already have an Uber outside and are waiting for food; booking another would be redundant."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [
      "Sugar Factory",
      "Color Factory",
      "Beat the Bomb"
     ],
     "karte": true,
     "kategorie": "place",
     "titel": "Choose next NYC spot",
     "zeile": "Options: Sugar Factory, Color Factory, Beat the Bomb, Wax Museum",
     "aktion": "Tap to see details and directions for each option",
     "haltbar_s": 600,
     "grund": "The group is actively debating multiple destinations and needs a quick way to compare and choose.",
     "verdict": "late",
     "late_by": 296,
     "need": "place",
     "need_start": 626
    },
    "z-ai/glm-5.3-flash": {
     "lat": 28.4,
     "visible_at": 1713.4,
     "cost": 0.00125658,
     "raw": "{\n \"beobachtung\": \"[0:23:13] Speaker 1: 'Alright bet, I'm about to get an Uber to the Sugar Factory.' and [0:23:43] 'Is Uber on his way? Yeah. It's outside.' — departure to Sugar Factory is in motion; at [0:26:45]-[0:27:45] they finish smoothies and pay.\",\n \"reasoning\": \"The aufbruch signal fires because the group is wrapping up at the dispensary and the Uber was already reported as outside at 23:43. By the time a card becomes visible (28:10-28:30), the departure is either already happening or the group will verbally coordinate it — they have repeatedly shown they sort logistics out loud within seconds. The destination (Sugar Factory) was stated clearly and the Uber driver handles navigation, so a card would duplicate what's already resolved. Earlier in the stream the group's pattern is chaotic but self-correcting; nothing here is a durable, unmet need.\",\n \"alternativen\": [{\"karte\": \"Sugar Factory route card\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"Uber already ordered and destination agreed; navigation is handled.\"}, {\"karte\": \"Museum manager follow-up\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"Jay is already emailing management per [0:17:47]; in progress, not actionable.\"}],\n \"karte\": false,\n \"grund\": \"The departure is already organized — Uber outside, destination named — so the need will be resolved before the card could appear.\"\n}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "[0:23:13] Speaker 1: 'Alright bet, I'm about to get an Uber to the Sugar Factory.' and [0:23:43] 'Is Uber on his way? Yeah. It's outside.' — departure to Sugar Factory is in motion; at [0:26:45]-[0:27:45] they finish smoothies and pay.",
     "vorhersage": "",
     "reasoning": "The aufbruch signal fires because the group is wrapping up at the dispensary and the Uber was already reported as outside at 23:43. By the time a card becomes visible (28:10-28:30), the departure is either already happening or the group will verbally coordinate it — they have repeatedly shown they sort logistics out loud within seconds. The destination (Sugar Factory) was stated clearly and the Uber driver handles navigation, so a card would duplicate what's already resolved. Earlier in the stream the group's pattern is chaotic but self-correcting; nothing here is a durable, unmet need.",
     "risiko": "",
     "konfidenz": null,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Sugar Factory route card",
       "verworfen_weil": "Uber already ordered and destination agreed; navigation is handled."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Museum manager follow-up",
       "verworfen_weil": "Jay is already emailing management per [0:17:47]; in progress, not actionable."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [],
     "verdict": "silent",
     "karte": false,
     "grund": "The departure is already organized — Uber outside, destination named — so the need will be resolved before the card could appear."
    },
    "openai/gpt-5.6-luna": {
     "lat": 9.0,
     "visible_at": 1694.0,
     "cost": 0.00347015,
     "raw": "{\n  \"beobachtung\": \"At 23:13, Speaker 1 said, \\\"I'm about to get an Uber to the Sugar Factory,\\\" and at 23:43 asked, \\\"Is Uber on his way?\\\"\",\n  \"vorhersage\": \"They will need to confirm or navigate to their next stop while boarding the waiting Uber, likely for several minutes.\",\n  \"reasoning\": \"The group has repeatedly settled on Sugar Factory while discussing alternatives, and the Uber was already reported outside. The departure need will still exist when the card appears because they are finishing payment and collecting food now. Latency makes a general planning card less useful, but navigation or destination confirmation remains useful during boarding and travel. Earlier they were overstimulated and regrouping, so a concise next-stop card reduces confusion.\",\n  \"alternativen\": [\n    {\n      \"karte\": \"Museum approval follow-up\",\n      \"verworfen_weil\": \"The group is actively leaving and has not received approval or requested follow-up.\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"karte\": \"Food payment reminder\",\n      \"verworfen_weil\": \"Payment appears complete at 26:49, so the need should be finished before visibility.\"\n    }\n  ],\n  \"karte\": true,\n  \"kategorie\": \"transport\",\n  \"titel\": \"Ride to Sugar Factory\",\n  \"zeile\": \"Confirm the next stop before boarding.\",\n  \"aktion\": \"Open Maps with [Sugar Factory location] as the destination.\",\n  \"optionen\": [\n    \"Open directions\",\n    \"Keep current destination\",\n    \"Change destination\"\n  ],\n  \"haltbar_s\": 600,\n  \"konfidenz\": 0.84,\n  \"risiko\": \"Annoying or wrong if the Uber has left, the group changes plans, or Sugar Factory is not the intended location.\",\n  \"grund\": \"The group has a waiting ride and a repeatedly stated destination, making departure confirmation the most durable immediate need.\"\n}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "At 23:13, Speaker 1 said, \"I'm about to get an Uber to the Sugar Factory,\" and at 23:43 asked, \"Is Uber on his way?\"",
     "vorhersage": "They will need to confirm or navigate to their next stop while boarding the waiting Uber, likely for several minutes.",
     "reasoning": "The group has repeatedly settled on Sugar Factory while discussing alternatives, and the Uber was already reported outside. The departure need will still exist when the card appears because they are finishing payment and collecting food now. Latency makes a general planning card less useful, but navigation or destination confirmation remains useful during boarding and travel. Earlier they were overstimulated and regrouping, so a concise next-stop card reduces confusion.",
     "risiko": "Annoying or wrong if the Uber has left, the group changes plans, or Sugar Factory is not the intended location.",
     "konfidenz": 0.84,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Museum approval follow-up",
       "verworfen_weil": "The group is actively leaving and has not received approval or requested follow-up."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Food payment reminder",
       "verworfen_weil": "Payment appears complete at 26:49, so the need should be finished before visibility."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [
      "Open directions",
      "Keep current destination",
      "Change destination"
     ],
     "karte": true,
     "kategorie": "transport",
     "titel": "Ride to Sugar Factory",
     "zeile": "Confirm the next stop before boarding.",
     "aktion": "Open Maps with [Sugar Factory location] as the destination.",
     "haltbar_s": 600,
     "grund": "The group has a waiting ride and a repeatedly stated destination, making departure confirmation the most durable immediate need.",
     "verdict": "late",
     "late_by": 271,
     "need": "transport",
     "need_start": 1323
    },
    "google/gemini-3.8-flash": {
     "lat": 11.6,
     "visible_at": 1696.6,
     "cost": 0.0136485,
     "raw": "{\"beobachtung\": \"At [0:23:13] Speaker 1 booked an Uber to Sugar Factory ('Alright bet, I'm about to get an Uber to the Sugar Factory'), and at [0:27:36] they are paying $20 for the smoothies before heading out.\", \"reasoning\": \"The 'aufbruch' signal triggered because the group is paying the tab and preparing to exit. However, Speaker 1 already ordered the rideshare, which was confirmed waiting outside around 24:19. By the time any card appears (28:15–28:30), they will be pushing past the crowd outside directly into the car. Offering transport or destination information provides zero utility since Marlon is not managing the ride and no logistics questions remain open.\", \"alternativen\": [{\"karte\": \"Directions / Details for Sugar Factory\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"Speaker 1 already entered the destination into Uber, so navigation is handled by the driver.\"}, {\"karte\": \"Rideshare pickup reminder\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"Speaker 1 booked the vehicle and tracks it on their own phone.\"}], \"karte\": false, \"grund\": \"Transport to the next stop has already been booked by Speaker 1 and the group is currently exiting to the car.\"}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "At [0:23:13] Speaker 1 booked an Uber to Sugar Factory ('Alright bet, I'm about to get an Uber to the Sugar Factory'), and at [0:27:36] they are paying $20 for the smoothies before heading out.",
     "vorhersage": "",
     "reasoning": "The 'aufbruch' signal triggered because the group is paying the tab and preparing to exit. However, Speaker 1 already ordered the rideshare, which was confirmed waiting outside around 24:19. By the time any card appears (28:15–28:30), they will be pushing past the crowd outside directly into the car. Offering transport or destination information provides zero utility since Marlon is not managing the ride and no logistics questions remain open.",
     "risiko": "",
     "konfidenz": null,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Directions / Details for Sugar Factory",
       "verworfen_weil": "Speaker 1 already entered the destination into Uber, so navigation is handled by the driver."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Rideshare pickup reminder",
       "verworfen_weil": "Speaker 1 booked the vehicle and tracks it on their own phone."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [],
     "verdict": "silent",
     "karte": false,
     "grund": "Transport to the next stop has already been booked by Speaker 1 and the group is currently exiting to the car."
    },
    "openai/gpt-5.6-sol": {
     "lat": 6.5,
     "visible_at": 1691.5,
     "cost": 0.0270335,
     "raw": "{\"beobachtung\":\"[0:23:43] Marlon: “Is Uber on his way?” Speaker 1: “It’s outside… But wait, we gotta wait for our food.” By [0:27:36], the drinks were paid for.\",\"reasoning\":\"The only likely need is to leave for the waiting Uber, but the group already knows the car and destination. Their food delay has just ended, so departure will probably happen within the card’s 10–30 second visibility latency. A reminder would arrive too late and duplicate an active plan. Earlier, they explicitly chose the Sugar Factory and ordered the ride themselves.\",\"alternativen\":[{\"karte\":\"Uber is waiting outside\",\"verworfen_weil\":\"They already know, and will likely be leaving before the card appears.\"},{\"karte\":\"Open route to Sugar Factory\",\"verworfen_weil\":\"The destination is already entered in the ordered Uber.\"}],\"karte\":false,\"grund\":\"No durable unmet need remains; departure is already arranged and imminent.\"}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "[0:23:43] Marlon: “Is Uber on his way?” Speaker 1: “It’s outside… But wait, we gotta wait for our food.” By [0:27:36], the drinks were paid for.",
     "vorhersage": "",
     "reasoning": "The only likely need is to leave for the waiting Uber, but the group already knows the car and destination. Their food delay has just ended, so departure will probably happen within the card’s 10–30 second visibility latency. A reminder would arrive too late and duplicate an active plan. Earlier, they explicitly chose the Sugar Factory and ordered the ride themselves.",
     "risiko": "",
     "konfidenz": null,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Uber is waiting outside",
       "verworfen_weil": "They already know, and will likely be leaving before the card appears."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Open route to Sugar Factory",
       "verworfen_weil": "The destination is already entered in the ordered Uber."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [],
     "verdict": "silent",
     "karte": false,
     "grund": "No durable unmet need remains; departure is already arranged and imminent."
    },
    "moonshotai/kimi-k3": {
     "lat": 63.5,
     "visible_at": 1748.5,
     "cost": 0.088092,
     "raw": "{\n \"beobachtung\": \"[0:23:43] Marlon: 'Is Uber on his way? Yeah... It's outside. It's here? But wait, we gotta wait for our food.' and [0:27:36] 'So final final total is what, boy? Uh, twenty twenty dollars.'\",\n \"vorhersage\": \"In the next 10-30 seconds they finish paying and head for the exit. They will need to locate or confirm the Uber that arrived at ~23:43 and has been waiting 4+ minutes, or rebook if the driver canceled. The need lasts until they are seated in a car, roughly 5-10 minutes.\",\n \"reasoning\": \"The departure is happening right now: the final bill is being settled at 27:36 and the plan (Sugar Factory) was locked in at 23:13. The Uber arrived at ~23:43 but they stayed for smoothies, so there is a real risk of cancellation or wait fees exactly when they step outside. The card lands at 28:10-28:30, precisely as they exit into the crowd, which is when the ride question becomes acute; later would be too late because they'd already be scrambling on the sidewalk. Earlier context: fans are still camped outside, the ride was ordered on a friend's phone, and the Sex Museum fallback is still pending, so a clean getaway matters.\",\n \"alternativen\": [{\"karte\": \"Note backup spots: Color Factory, Beat the Bomb, Balloon Museum, Wax Museum\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"Good long-lived note, but not needed during a chaotic exit; better captured once they are in the car.\"}, {\"karte\": \"Followup: Sex Museum manager approval pending\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"Purely passive waiting; Jason already emailed and there is nothing for Marlon to do right now.\"}],\n \"karte\": true,\n \"kategorie\": \"transport\",\n \"titel\": \"Uber to Sugar Factory\",\n \"zeile\": \"Driver waiting since 23:43 — confirm the ride or rebook before walking out\",\n \"aktion\": \"Opens Uber with Sugar Factory set as destination\",\n \"optionen\": [\"Rebook Uber to Sugar Factory\", \"Open Sugar Factory in Maps\", \"See hours\"],\n \"haltbar_s\": 600,\n \"konfidenz\": 0.6,\n \"risiko\": \"Annoying or wrong if the ride is on Lacey's phone and already sorted, the driver is patiently waiting, or the group quietly switched destinations.\",\n \"grund\": \"They are paying the final bill and about to walk out to an Uber that has been waiting over four minutes.\"\n}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "[0:23:43] Marlon: 'Is Uber on his way? Yeah... It's outside. It's here? But wait, we gotta wait for our food.' and [0:27:36] 'So final final total is what, boy? Uh, twenty twenty dollars.'",
     "vorhersage": "In the next 10-30 seconds they finish paying and head for the exit. They will need to locate or confirm the Uber that arrived at ~23:43 and has been waiting 4+ minutes, or rebook if the driver canceled. The need lasts until they are seated in a car, roughly 5-10 minutes.",
     "reasoning": "The departure is happening right now: the final bill is being settled at 27:36 and the plan (Sugar Factory) was locked in at 23:13. The Uber arrived at ~23:43 but they stayed for smoothies, so there is a real risk of cancellation or wait fees exactly when they step outside. The card lands at 28:10-28:30, precisely as they exit into the crowd, which is when the ride question becomes acute; later would be too late because they'd already be scrambling on the sidewalk. Earlier context: fans are still camped outside, the ride was ordered on a friend's phone, and the Sex Museum fallback is still pending, so a clean getaway matters.",
     "risiko": "Annoying or wrong if the ride is on Lacey's phone and already sorted, the driver is patiently waiting, or the group quietly switched destinations.",
     "konfidenz": 0.6,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Note backup spots: Color Factory, Beat the Bomb, Balloon Museum, Wax Museum",
       "verworfen_weil": "Good long-lived note, but not needed during a chaotic exit; better captured once they are in the car."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Followup: Sex Museum manager approval pending",
       "verworfen_weil": "Purely passive waiting; Jason already emailed and there is nothing for Marlon to do right now."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [
      "Rebook Uber to Sugar Factory",
      "Open Sugar Factory in Maps",
      "See hours"
     ],
     "karte": true,
     "kategorie": "transport",
     "titel": "Uber to Sugar Factory",
     "zeile": "Driver waiting since 23:43 — confirm the ride or rebook before walking out",
     "aktion": "Opens Uber with Sugar Factory set as destination",
     "haltbar_s": 600,
     "grund": "They are paying the final bill and about to walk out to an Uber that has been waiting over four minutes.",
     "verdict": "late",
     "late_by": 326,
     "need": "transport",
     "need_start": 1323
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "t": 1740,
   "signal": "aufnahme_sorge",
   "conf": 0.66,
   "seen_until": 1725,
   "models": {
    "deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash": {
     "lat": 9.2,
     "visible_at": 1754.2,
     "cost": 0.00163758,
     "raw": "{\n  \"beobachtung\": \"[0:22:13] Speaker 4: 'Whatever. Sex Museum said no. We could go, I'm just saying we could go to the Sugar Factory.' and [0:23:13] Speaker 1: 'Alright bet, I'm about to get an Uber to the Sugar Factory.'\",\n  \"vorhersage\": \"The group is about to enter the Uber and will need a destination decision and a plan for the next stop; the discussion of Sugar Factory, Color Factory, Beat the Bomb, Balloon Museum, Wax Museum will continue for at least several minutes while they ride.\",\n  \"reasoning\": \"The pre-filter fired on 'aufnahme_sorge' (recording concern) but the actual recurring need in the transcript is the unresolved destination debate that has been going on since ~0:19:00 and is now being acted on with an Uber. The group is in a moving vehicle, so a card with the shortlist of discussed venues and a tap-to-navigate is useful and won't be finished in under 30 seconds. The latency of 10-30s means the card will appear while they are still in or just entering the Uber, which is exactly when they need to pick a destination. Earlier in the stream they were kicked out of the Sex Museum and are waiting on management approval, so the backup plan is still live.\",\n  \"alternativen\": [\n    {\n      \"karte\": \"Follow up with Sex Museum management\",\n      \"verworfen_weil\": \"Jason is already handling it via email/text and said they'll text his number; a card would duplicate ongoing work.\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"karte\": \"Book Uber Black\",\n      \"verworfen_weil\": \"The Uber is already outside and they are walking to it; booking is done.\"\n    }\n  ],\n  \"karte\": true,\n  \"kategorie\": \"place\",\n  \"titel\": \"Pick next NYC stop\",\n  \"zeile\": \"Sugar Factory, Color Factory, Beat the Bomb, Balloon Museum?\",\n  \"aktion\": \"Opens a map with the shortlisted venues and one-tap directions\",\n  \"optionen\": [\"Sugar Factory\", \"Color Factory\", \"Beat the Bomb\"],\n  \"haltbar_s\": 600,\n  \"konfidenz\": 0.72,\n  \"risiko\": \"If they have already decided on Sugar Factory and told the Uber driver, the card is redundant and annoying.\",\n  \"grund\": \"The group is mid-Uber with an unresolved destination debate that has run for several minutes.\"\n}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "[0:22:13] Speaker 4: 'Whatever. Sex Museum said no. We could go, I'm just saying we could go to the Sugar Factory.' and [0:23:13] Speaker 1: 'Alright bet, I'm about to get an Uber to the Sugar Factory.'",
     "vorhersage": "The group is about to enter the Uber and will need a destination decision and a plan for the next stop; the discussion of Sugar Factory, Color Factory, Beat the Bomb, Balloon Museum, Wax Museum will continue for at least several minutes while they ride.",
     "reasoning": "The pre-filter fired on 'aufnahme_sorge' (recording concern) but the actual recurring need in the transcript is the unresolved destination debate that has been going on since ~0:19:00 and is now being acted on with an Uber. The group is in a moving vehicle, so a card with the shortlist of discussed venues and a tap-to-navigate is useful and won't be finished in under 30 seconds. The latency of 10-30s means the card will appear while they are still in or just entering the Uber, which is exactly when they need to pick a destination. Earlier in the stream they were kicked out of the Sex Museum and are waiting on management approval, so the backup plan is still live.",
     "risiko": "If they have already decided on Sugar Factory and told the Uber driver, the card is redundant and annoying.",
     "konfidenz": 0.72,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Follow up with Sex Museum management",
       "verworfen_weil": "Jason is already handling it via email/text and said they'll text his number; a card would duplicate ongoing work."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Book Uber Black",
       "verworfen_weil": "The Uber is already outside and they are walking to it; booking is done."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [
      "Sugar Factory",
      "Color Factory",
      "Beat the Bomb"
     ],
     "karte": true,
     "kategorie": "place",
     "titel": "Pick next NYC stop",
     "zeile": "Sugar Factory, Color Factory, Beat the Bomb, Balloon Museum?",
     "aktion": "Opens a map with the shortlisted venues and one-tap directions",
     "haltbar_s": 600,
     "grund": "The group is mid-Uber with an unresolved destination debate that has run for several minutes.",
     "verdict": "repeat",
     "need": "place",
     "need_start": 626
    },
    "z-ai/glm-5.3-flash": {
     "lat": 5.8,
     "visible_at": 1750.8,
     "cost": 0.0017694,
     "raw": "{\n \"beobachtung\": \"[0:28:22] Speaker 4: \\\"Listen, hey, no pictures and you guys are YouTube, okay?\\\" — right as they board the black suburban; also earlier museum recording restriction at [0:04:06]–[0:04:33].\",\n \"reasoning\": \"The recording concern was just voiced seconds ago and the group already acknowledged it ('I got this', 'no pictures'), so by the time a card becomes visible 10–30 seconds from now Marlon will still be in the same vehicle with the rule fresh in mind. The earlier museum incident was fully resolved and is irrelevant now. A card would only repeat what the driver just said, adding friction during a chaotic boarding moment. Nothing here needs a persistent reminder — the constraint is short-lived and actively enforced by the person present.\",\n \"alternativen\": [\n  {\"karte\": \"Reminder: no filming in ride\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"Marlon heard it directly seconds ago and agreed; redundant within the latency window.\"},\n  {\"karte\": \"Sugar Factory destination check\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"Uber is already outside and boarding; the transport need is being handled in real time.\"}\n ],\n \"karte\": false,\n \"grund\": \"The no-recording instruction was just given and acknowledged in person, so it will still be fresh and self-evident when any card would appear.\"\n}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "[0:28:22] Speaker 4: \"Listen, hey, no pictures and you guys are YouTube, okay?\" — right as they board the black suburban; also earlier museum recording restriction at [0:04:06]–[0:04:33].",
     "vorhersage": "",
     "reasoning": "The recording concern was just voiced seconds ago and the group already acknowledged it ('I got this', 'no pictures'), so by the time a card becomes visible 10–30 seconds from now Marlon will still be in the same vehicle with the rule fresh in mind. The earlier museum incident was fully resolved and is irrelevant now. A card would only repeat what the driver just said, adding friction during a chaotic boarding moment. Nothing here needs a persistent reminder — the constraint is short-lived and actively enforced by the person present.",
     "risiko": "",
     "konfidenz": null,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Reminder: no filming in ride",
       "verworfen_weil": "Marlon heard it directly seconds ago and agreed; redundant within the latency window."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Sugar Factory destination check",
       "verworfen_weil": "Uber is already outside and boarding; the transport need is being handled in real time."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [],
     "verdict": "silent",
     "karte": false,
     "grund": "The no-recording instruction was just given and acknowledged in person, so it will still be fresh and self-evident when any card would appear."
    },
    "openai/gpt-5.6-luna": {
     "lat": 8.7,
     "visible_at": 1753.7,
     "cost": 0.00353615,
     "raw": "{\n  \"beobservation\": \"\\\"No pictures and you guys are YouTube, okay?\\\" followed by \\\"I got this\\\" at 28:22-28:38.\",\n  \"vorhersage\": \"The group may continue recording around someone who objected to being filmed, and the privacy concern can persist through the ride and next segment.\",\n  \"reasoning\": \"A person explicitly objected to pictures and identified the group as YouTube content creators. The concern is still relevant when the card appears because they are only beginning to leave and recording may continue in the vehicle. The 10–30 second latency makes a persistent recording-control warning more useful than a prompt about the already-arranged Uber. Earlier, staff at the museum also objected to recording, suggesting consent is an active stream-operations issue today.\",\n  \"alternativen\": [\n    {\n      \"karte\": \"Uber destination reminder\",\n      \"verworfen_weil\": \"The Uber is already outside and the group has an immediate destination plan.\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"karte\": \"Museum manager follow-up\",\n      \"verworfen_weil\": \"It remains a later possibility, but the group is currently leaving and has not secured approval.\"\n    }\n  ],\n  \"karte\": true,\n  \"kategorie\": \"stream_ops\",\n  \"titel\": \"Recording consent check\",\n  \"zeile\": \"Someone nearby requested no pictures or YouTube recording.\",\n  \"aktion\": \"Open recording controls.\",\n  \"optionen\": [\n    \"Stop recording\",\n    \"Mute audio\",\n    \"Dismiss\"\n  ],\n  \"haltbar_s\": 900,\n  \"konfidenz\": 0.84,\n  \"risiko\": \"It may be annoying if the speaker was addressing only photos or has already consented to the recording.\",\n  \"grund\": \"An explicit no-pictures objection creates an immediate, continuing privacy risk for the recording.\"\n}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "",
     "vorhersage": "The group may continue recording around someone who objected to being filmed, and the privacy concern can persist through the ride and next segment.",
     "reasoning": "A person explicitly objected to pictures and identified the group as YouTube content creators. The concern is still relevant when the card appears because they are only beginning to leave and recording may continue in the vehicle. The 10–30 second latency makes a persistent recording-control warning more useful than a prompt about the already-arranged Uber. Earlier, staff at the museum also objected to recording, suggesting consent is an active stream-operations issue today.",
     "risiko": "It may be annoying if the speaker was addressing only photos or has already consented to the recording.",
     "konfidenz": 0.84,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Uber destination reminder",
       "verworfen_weil": "The Uber is already outside and the group has an immediate destination plan."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Museum manager follow-up",
       "verworfen_weil": "It remains a later possibility, but the group is currently leaving and has not secured approval."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [
      "Stop recording",
      "Mute audio",
      "Dismiss"
     ],
     "karte": true,
     "kategorie": "stream_ops",
     "titel": "Recording consent check",
     "zeile": "Someone nearby requested no pictures or YouTube recording.",
     "aktion": "Open recording controls.",
     "haltbar_s": 900,
     "grund": "An explicit no-pictures objection creates an immediate, continuing privacy risk for the recording.",
     "verdict": "late",
     "late_by": 1481,
     "need": "stream_ops",
     "need_start": 246
    },
    "google/gemini-3.8-flash": {
     "lat": 22.8,
     "visible_at": 1767.8,
     "cost": 0.011919,
     "raw": "{\"beobachtung\": \"[0:28:22] Speaker 4: 'Listen, hey, no pictures and you guys are YouTube, okay?'\", \"reasoning\": \"The pre-filter fired on recording concerns, likely triggered by comments while exiting the shop or the earlier Museum of Sex denial. However, the group has already moved on, settled their drinks, and is actively dodging fans on the sidewalk to jump into an Uber Suburban. In 10 to 30 seconds, Marlon will be physically climbing into the vehicle and closing the door. Any prompt about filming rules or permissions right now would be distracting and unactionable during a chaotic street transition.\", \"alternativen\": [{\"karte\": \"Sugar Factory filming policy\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"Premature and unprompted; the group is focused entirely on getting safely into their Uber.\"}], \"karte\": false, \"grund\": \"The group is currently navigating a crowd on the street to board their Uber, making any card irrelevant and distracting.\"}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "[0:28:22] Speaker 4: 'Listen, hey, no pictures and you guys are YouTube, okay?'",
     "vorhersage": "",
     "reasoning": "The pre-filter fired on recording concerns, likely triggered by comments while exiting the shop or the earlier Museum of Sex denial. However, the group has already moved on, settled their drinks, and is actively dodging fans on the sidewalk to jump into an Uber Suburban. In 10 to 30 seconds, Marlon will be physically climbing into the vehicle and closing the door. Any prompt about filming rules or permissions right now would be distracting and unactionable during a chaotic street transition.",
     "risiko": "",
     "konfidenz": null,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Sugar Factory filming policy",
       "verworfen_weil": "Premature and unprompted; the group is focused entirely on getting safely into their Uber."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [],
     "verdict": "silent",
     "karte": false,
     "grund": "The group is currently navigating a crowd on the street to board their Uber, making any card irrelevant and distracting."
    },
    "openai/gpt-5.6-sol": {
     "lat": 5.7,
     "visible_at": 1750.7,
     "cost": 0.0277535,
     "raw": "{\"beobachtung\":\"[28:22] Speaker 4: “Listen, hey, no pictures and you guys are YouTube, okay?”\",\"reasoning\":\"This appears to be a brief instruction while the group exits toward an Uber, not an unresolved request for recording guidance. By the time a card appears, they will likely already be outside and entering the vehicle. The earlier filming concern at the museum was also resolved when they left and management took contact details, so no persistent action is needed now.\",\"alternativen\":[{\"karte\":\"Confirm filming permission\",\"verworfen_weil\":\"The group is already leaving, and the restriction can be followed immediately without a card.\"},{\"karte\":\"Open Uber pickup details\",\"verworfen_weil\":\"They already identified the vehicle as a black Suburban immediately to the right.\"}],\"karte\":false,\"grund\":\"The recording concern is situational and will expire before a card becomes visible.\"}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "[28:22] Speaker 4: “Listen, hey, no pictures and you guys are YouTube, okay?”",
     "vorhersage": "",
     "reasoning": "This appears to be a brief instruction while the group exits toward an Uber, not an unresolved request for recording guidance. By the time a card appears, they will likely already be outside and entering the vehicle. The earlier filming concern at the museum was also resolved when they left and management took contact details, so no persistent action is needed now.",
     "risiko": "",
     "konfidenz": null,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Confirm filming permission",
       "verworfen_weil": "The group is already leaving, and the restriction can be followed immediately without a card."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Open Uber pickup details",
       "verworfen_weil": "They already identified the vehicle as a black Suburban immediately to the right."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [],
     "verdict": "silent",
     "karte": false,
     "grund": "The recording concern is situational and will expire before a card becomes visible."
    },
    "moonshotai/kimi-k3": {
     "lat": 101.3,
     "visible_at": 1846.3,
     "cost": 0.03771,
     "raw": "{\n \"beobachtung\": \"[0:28:22] Speaker 4: 'no pictures and you guys are YouTube, okay?' — driver filming concern, plus earlier kick-out at [0:04:06] 'You are warned not to be streaming' and confirmed plan at [0:23:13] 'I'm about to get an Uber to the Sugar Factory'\",\n \"vorhersage\": \"For the whole Uber ride (~10-20 min) the open question is whether they can film at the Sugar Factory; the need lasts until they call or arrive at the door.\",\n \"reasoning\": \"The driver negotiation is being handled live by the group ('I got this') and will resolve in seconds, so no card for that. But they were already kicked out of the Sex Museum for streaming, and their confirmed next stop is the Sugar Factory — checking filming permission before arrival prevents a second wasted trip. The card appears mid-ride when Marlon is sitting idle in the car and can act on it. The need persists for the entire ride, so the 10-30s latency is harmless.\",\n \"alternativen\": [\n  {\"karte\": \"Reminder: driver asked not to be filmed\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"Already being handled live by the group; resolves in under 30 seconds\"},\n  {\"karte\": \"Note: email Sex Museum manager for re-entry\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"Jason is already emailing management; nothing left to do\"},\n  {\"karte\": \"Uber / ride status card\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"Uber already ordered and arrived; nothing to book\"}\n ],\n \"karte\": true,\n \"kategorie\": \"place\",\n \"titel\": \"Sugar Factory: filming OK?\",\n \"zeile\": \"Last venue kicked you out for streaming — call ahead before you arrive?\",\n \"aktion\": \"Tap calls the Sugar Factory to ask about filming permission\",\n \"optionen\": [\"Call venue re: filming\", \"Open in Maps\", \"Check hours\"],\n \"haltbar_s\": 900,\n \"konfidenz\": 0.58,\n \"risiko\": \"Wrong if they changed destination in the car or prefer to just walk in and wing it\",\n \"grund\": \"They were kicked out of the last venue for streaming, so a quick call ahead to their confirmed next stop saves a second wasted trip.\"\n}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "[0:28:22] Speaker 4: 'no pictures and you guys are YouTube, okay?' — driver filming concern, plus earlier kick-out at [0:04:06] 'You are warned not to be streaming' and confirmed plan at [0:23:13] 'I'm about to get an Uber to the Sugar Factory'",
     "vorhersage": "For the whole Uber ride (~10-20 min) the open question is whether they can film at the Sugar Factory; the need lasts until they call or arrive at the door.",
     "reasoning": "The driver negotiation is being handled live by the group ('I got this') and will resolve in seconds, so no card for that. But they were already kicked out of the Sex Museum for streaming, and their confirmed next stop is the Sugar Factory — checking filming permission before arrival prevents a second wasted trip. The card appears mid-ride when Marlon is sitting idle in the car and can act on it. The need persists for the entire ride, so the 10-30s latency is harmless.",
     "risiko": "Wrong if they changed destination in the car or prefer to just walk in and wing it",
     "konfidenz": 0.58,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Reminder: driver asked not to be filmed",
       "verworfen_weil": "Already being handled live by the group; resolves in under 30 seconds"
      },
      {
       "karte": "Note: email Sex Museum manager for re-entry",
       "verworfen_weil": "Jason is already emailing management; nothing left to do"
      },
      {
       "karte": "Uber / ride status card",
       "verworfen_weil": "Uber already ordered and arrived; nothing to book"
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [
      "Call venue re: filming",
      "Open in Maps",
      "Check hours"
     ],
     "karte": true,
     "kategorie": "place",
     "titel": "Sugar Factory: filming OK?",
     "zeile": "Last venue kicked you out for streaming — call ahead before you arrive?",
     "aktion": "Tap calls the Sugar Factory to ask about filming permission",
     "haltbar_s": 900,
     "grund": "They were kicked out of the last venue for streaming, so a quick call ahead to their confirmed next stop saves a second wasted trip.",
     "verdict": "late",
     "late_by": 453,
     "need": "place",
     "need_start": 626
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "t": 1800,
   "signal": "aufbruch",
   "conf": 0.79,
   "seen_until": 1785,
   "models": {
    "deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash": {
     "lat": 9.3,
     "visible_at": 1814.3,
     "cost": 0.00162045,
     "raw": "{\n  \"beobachtung\": \"[0:22:13] Speaker 4: \\\"Whatever. Sex Museum said no. We could go, I'm just saying we could go to the Sugar Factory.\\\" and [0:23:13] Speaker 1: \\\"Alright bet, I'm about to get an Uber to the Sugar Factory.\\\"\",\n  \"vorhersage\": \"The group is now in the Uber (black suburban) and will need a concrete destination and plan for the next 30-60+ minutes; the Sugar Factory vs Color Factory vs Beat the Bomb vs Wax Museum decision is still unresolved and will persist during the ride.\",\n  \"reasoning\": \"The pre-filter 'aufbruch' fired because the group is departing, but the real long-lived need is the unresolved destination debate that has been running since ~19:00. They just boarded the Uber at 28:16-29:00, so the destination question is live right now and will remain live for the whole ride. A card listing the candidate spots with quick info would be useful immediately and for the next several minutes. Earlier in the stream they were kicked out of the Sex Museum and are trying to get back in via management, so a fallback plan is genuinely needed.\",\n  \"alternativen\": [\n    {\"karte\": \"Follow up with Sex Museum management\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"Jay is already handling it via text/email; no action needed from Marlon right now.\"},\n    {\"karte\": \"Book Uber Black\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"Uber is already outside and they are boarding; need is finished.\"}\n  ],\n  \"karte\": true,\n  \"kategorie\": \"place\",\n  \"titel\": \"Pick next NYC spot\",\n  \"zeile\": \"Sugar Factory, Color Factory, Beat the Bomb, or Wax Museum?\",\n  \"aktion\": \"Opens a short comparison of the four candidate spots with hours and distance from current location.\",\n  \"optionen\": [\"Sugar Factory\", \"Color Factory\", \"Beat the Bomb\"],\n  \"haltbar_s\": 900,\n  \"konfidenz\": 0.62,\n  \"risiko\": \"If they already decided on Sugar Factory in the Uber and are just chatting, the card is redundant and clutters the screen.\",\n  \"grund\": \"Destination is still undecided as they board the Uber, and the choice will drive the next hour of the stream.\"\n}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "[0:22:13] Speaker 4: \"Whatever. Sex Museum said no. We could go, I'm just saying we could go to the Sugar Factory.\" and [0:23:13] Speaker 1: \"Alright bet, I'm about to get an Uber to the Sugar Factory.\"",
     "vorhersage": "The group is now in the Uber (black suburban) and will need a concrete destination and plan for the next 30-60+ minutes; the Sugar Factory vs Color Factory vs Beat the Bomb vs Wax Museum decision is still unresolved and will persist during the ride.",
     "reasoning": "The pre-filter 'aufbruch' fired because the group is departing, but the real long-lived need is the unresolved destination debate that has been running since ~19:00. They just boarded the Uber at 28:16-29:00, so the destination question is live right now and will remain live for the whole ride. A card listing the candidate spots with quick info would be useful immediately and for the next several minutes. Earlier in the stream they were kicked out of the Sex Museum and are trying to get back in via management, so a fallback plan is genuinely needed.",
     "risiko": "If they already decided on Sugar Factory in the Uber and are just chatting, the card is redundant and clutters the screen.",
     "konfidenz": 0.62,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Follow up with Sex Museum management",
       "verworfen_weil": "Jay is already handling it via text/email; no action needed from Marlon right now."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Book Uber Black",
       "verworfen_weil": "Uber is already outside and they are boarding; need is finished."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [
      "Sugar Factory",
      "Color Factory",
      "Beat the Bomb"
     ],
     "karte": true,
     "kategorie": "place",
     "titel": "Pick next NYC spot",
     "zeile": "Sugar Factory, Color Factory, Beat the Bomb, or Wax Museum?",
     "aktion": "Opens a short comparison of the four candidate spots with hours and distance from current location.",
     "haltbar_s": 900,
     "grund": "Destination is still undecided as they board the Uber, and the choice will drive the next hour of the stream.",
     "verdict": "repeat",
     "need": "place",
     "need_start": 626
    },
    "z-ai/glm-5.3-flash": {
     "lat": 48.3,
     "visible_at": 1853.3,
     "cost": 0.00140889,
     "raw": "{\n \"beobachtung\": \"[0:17:47] Speaker 6: \\\"Uh, I'm emailing right now, but they have my phone... so they're gonna text [if] their management...\\\" and [0:18:20] \\\"there's a certain person that has to come through and approve everything\\\"; also [0:27:48] \\\"the Uber's outside, shall we?\\\" — group departing in Uber to Sugar Factory.\",\n \"vorhersage\": \"Once in the Uber (card visible ~30:10-30:30), the group will be riding for several minutes with nothing to do but wait on two things: the museum's management approval text to Jay, and the Sugar Factory trip itself. The pending approval is the open loop worth surfacing.\",\n \"reasoning\": \"The 'aufbruch' signal fires because they are boarding the Uber, but a transport card is useless — the Uber is already booked and outside, and the destination (Sugar Factory) was decided at [0:23:13]. What actually persists past the card's visibility window is the unresolved museum re-entry: Jay gave his number to management and is waiting for an approval text, which Marlon explicitly called a good idea at [0:09:20-0:09:28]. That need lasts the whole ride and beyond. A card reminding them to watch for Jay's text / follow up keeps the plan alive without interrupting the chaos of boarding.\",\n \"alternativen\": [\n  {\"karte\": \"Uber route to Sugar Factory\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"Uber already ordered and outside; navigation is handled, card would be redundant by visibility time.\"},\n  {\"karte\": \"Book Beat the Bomb / Color Factory\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"Only loosely floated ideas at [0:19:46-0:20:08], no commitment; premature to book.\"},\n  {\"karte\": \"Get protein smoothies\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"Already resolved — they bought and drank them at [0:26:41-0:27:09].\"}\n ],\n \"karte\": true,\n \"kategorie\": \"followup\",\n \"titel\": \"Museum approval pending\",\n \"zeile\": \"Jay texted management — watch for their reply\",\n \"aktion\": \"Open thread with Jay's contact and message draft\",\n \"optionen\": [\"Show Jay's message thread\", \"Draft follow-up message\", \"Dismiss\"],\n \"haltbar_s\": 1800,\n \"konfidenz\": 0.62,\n \"risiko\": \"Wrong if the approval text already arrived during boarding, or if the group has fully moved on and a museum reminder feels like nagging about a closed chapter.\",\n \"grund\": \"The museum re-entry approval is the only announced, unresolved plan still open when the card becomes visible, and it survives the boarding chaos the transport signal actually captured.\"\n}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "[0:17:47] Speaker 6: \"Uh, I'm emailing right now, but they have my phone... so they're gonna text [if] their management...\" and [0:18:20] \"there's a certain person that has to come through and approve everything\"; also [0:27:48] \"the Uber's outside, shall we?\" — group departing in Uber to Sugar Factory.",
     "vorhersage": "Once in the Uber (card visible ~30:10-30:30), the group will be riding for several minutes with nothing to do but wait on two things: the museum's management approval text to Jay, and the Sugar Factory trip itself. The pending approval is the open loop worth surfacing.",
     "reasoning": "The 'aufbruch' signal fires because they are boarding the Uber, but a transport card is useless — the Uber is already booked and outside, and the destination (Sugar Factory) was decided at [0:23:13]. What actually persists past the card's visibility window is the unresolved museum re-entry: Jay gave his number to management and is waiting for an approval text, which Marlon explicitly called a good idea at [0:09:20-0:09:28]. That need lasts the whole ride and beyond. A card reminding them to watch for Jay's text / follow up keeps the plan alive without interrupting the chaos of boarding.",
     "risiko": "Wrong if the approval text already arrived during boarding, or if the group has fully moved on and a museum reminder feels like nagging about a closed chapter.",
     "konfidenz": 0.62,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Uber route to Sugar Factory",
       "verworfen_weil": "Uber already ordered and outside; navigation is handled, card would be redundant by visibility time."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Book Beat the Bomb / Color Factory",
       "verworfen_weil": "Only loosely floated ideas at [0:19:46-0:20:08], no commitment; premature to book."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Get protein smoothies",
       "verworfen_weil": "Already resolved — they bought and drank them at [0:26:41-0:27:09]."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [
      "Show Jay's message thread",
      "Draft follow-up message",
      "Dismiss"
     ],
     "karte": true,
     "kategorie": "followup",
     "titel": "Museum approval pending",
     "zeile": "Jay texted management — watch for their reply",
     "aktion": "Open thread with Jay's contact and message draft",
     "haltbar_s": 1800,
     "grund": "The museum re-entry approval is the only announced, unresolved plan still open when the card becomes visible, and it survives the boarding chaos the transport signal actually captured.",
     "verdict": "repeat",
     "need": "followup",
     "need_start": 1957
    },
    "openai/gpt-5.6-luna": {
     "lat": 10.4,
     "visible_at": 1815.4,
     "cost": 0.0036312,
     "raw": "{\n  \"beobachtung\": \"At 23:13, Speaker 1 said, \\\"I'm about to get an Uber to the Sugar Factory,\\\" and at 29:38 added, \\\"It's T737. Probably that one over the street.\\\"\",\n  \"vorhersage\": \"When visible, the group will still need to confirm the Uber destination while boarding or during the ride; this may remain useful for at least 20 minutes.\",\n  \"reasoning\": \"They have repeatedly discussed destinations and explicitly chose the Sugar Factory, but the pickup and destination still appear unsettled. The latest exchange suggests they are identifying the vehicle rather than already traveling confidently. The card's latency is useful because it will appear as they board, when confirming the destination remains relevant. Earlier alternatives included Color Factory and Beat the Bomb, so offering those choices prevents locking onto an uncertain plan.\",\n  \"alternativen\": [\n    {\n      \"karte\": \"Find Uber vehicle\",\n      \"verworfen_weil\": \"They may board within seconds, making a vehicle-location card obsolete before it appears.\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"karte\": \"Museum manager follow-up\",\n      \"verworfen_weil\": \"The group has moved on and is now focused on transportation and the next destination.\"\n    }\n  ],\n  \"karte\": true,\n  \"kategorie\": \"transport\",\n  \"titel\": \"Confirm Next Destination\",\n  \"zeile\": \"Choose the destination to open in Maps\",\n  \"aktion\": \"Open Maps with the selected destination\",\n  \"optionen\": [\n    \"Sugar Factory\",\n    \"Color Factory\",\n    \"Beat the Bomb\"\n  ],\n  \"haltbar_s\": 1800,\n  \"konfidenz\": 0.78,\n  \"risiko\": \"The card is annoying if they already entered the Uber with a confirmed destination or changed plans entirely.\",\n  \"grund\": \"The group is actively locating its Uber while still discussing where to go next.\"\n}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "At 23:13, Speaker 1 said, \"I'm about to get an Uber to the Sugar Factory,\" and at 29:38 added, \"It's T737. Probably that one over the street.\"",
     "vorhersage": "When visible, the group will still need to confirm the Uber destination while boarding or during the ride; this may remain useful for at least 20 minutes.",
     "reasoning": "They have repeatedly discussed destinations and explicitly chose the Sugar Factory, but the pickup and destination still appear unsettled. The latest exchange suggests they are identifying the vehicle rather than already traveling confidently. The card's latency is useful because it will appear as they board, when confirming the destination remains relevant. Earlier alternatives included Color Factory and Beat the Bomb, so offering those choices prevents locking onto an uncertain plan.",
     "risiko": "The card is annoying if they already entered the Uber with a confirmed destination or changed plans entirely.",
     "konfidenz": 0.78,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Find Uber vehicle",
       "verworfen_weil": "They may board within seconds, making a vehicle-location card obsolete before it appears."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Museum manager follow-up",
       "verworfen_weil": "The group has moved on and is now focused on transportation and the next destination."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [
      "Sugar Factory",
      "Color Factory",
      "Beat the Bomb"
     ],
     "karte": true,
     "kategorie": "transport",
     "titel": "Confirm Next Destination",
     "zeile": "Choose the destination to open in Maps",
     "aktion": "Open Maps with the selected destination",
     "haltbar_s": 1800,
     "grund": "The group is actively locating its Uber while still discussing where to go next.",
     "verdict": "late",
     "late_by": 392,
     "need": "transport",
     "need_start": 1323
    },
    "google/gemini-3.8-flash": {
     "lat": 10.2,
     "visible_at": 1815.2,
     "cost": 0.013605,
     "raw": "{\"beobachtung\": \"Speaker 1 at [0:27:48] says 'the Uber's outside, shall we?' and identifies the vehicle as a black Suburban with license plate ending in T737 at [0:28:16] and [0:29:38].\", \"reasoning\": \"The group is actively leaving the dispensary and jumping into the already waiting Uber to escape the street crowd. Vehicle details (black Suburban, plate T737) and destination (Sugar Factory) have already been handled and called out aloud by the crew. Showing a card while Marlon is dodging fans on the sidewalk and getting into the car offers no actionable value and would only distract him. Once settled in the car, any potential needs (e.g. restaurant hours/reservations) can be assessed if relevant.\", \"alternativen\": [{\"karte\": \"Uber details (Black Suburban, T737)\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"The group already spotted the car across the street and called out the license plate aloud.\"}], \"karte\": false, \"grund\": \"The Uber is already waiting across the street, vehicle details are already known to the group, and Marlon is currently dodging fans to board the car.\"}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "Speaker 1 at [0:27:48] says 'the Uber's outside, shall we?' and identifies the vehicle as a black Suburban with license plate ending in T737 at [0:28:16] and [0:29:38].",
     "vorhersage": "",
     "reasoning": "The group is actively leaving the dispensary and jumping into the already waiting Uber to escape the street crowd. Vehicle details (black Suburban, plate T737) and destination (Sugar Factory) have already been handled and called out aloud by the crew. Showing a card while Marlon is dodging fans on the sidewalk and getting into the car offers no actionable value and would only distract him. Once settled in the car, any potential needs (e.g. restaurant hours/reservations) can be assessed if relevant.",
     "risiko": "",
     "konfidenz": null,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Uber details (Black Suburban, T737)",
       "verworfen_weil": "The group already spotted the car across the street and called out the license plate aloud."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [],
     "verdict": "silent",
     "karte": false,
     "grund": "The Uber is already waiting across the street, vehicle details are already known to the group, and Marlon is currently dodging fans to board the car."
    },
    "openai/gpt-5.6-sol": {
     "lat": 7.1,
     "visible_at": 1812.1,
     "cost": 0.029006,
     "raw": "{\"beobachtung\":\"[0:29:38] Speaker 1: “Uh, it’s T737. Probably that one over the street.”\",\"reasoning\":\"They have already ordered an Uber, exited the store, and appear to have located the vehicle. By the time a card appears, they will likely be boarding or already inside, so the immediate transport need should be resolved. Earlier they chose the Sugar Factory and confirmed the Uber was outside, leaving no durable unresolved navigation task. The plate transcription is also noisy and should not be repeated as verified information.\",\"alternativen\":[{\"karte\":\"Open Uber trip\",\"verworfen_weil\":\"Locating and boarding the nearby vehicle should finish within 30 seconds.\"},{\"karte\":\"Sugar Factory destination\",\"verworfen_weil\":\"The destination was already selected and entered when the Uber was ordered.\"},{\"karte\":\"Switch camera to Drew\",\"verworfen_weil\":\"The group already announced the switch and can handle it immediately.\"}],\"karte\":false,\"grund\":\"The departure is already underway and no useful need is likely to remain when a card becomes visible.\"}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "[0:29:38] Speaker 1: “Uh, it’s T737. Probably that one over the street.”",
     "vorhersage": "",
     "reasoning": "They have already ordered an Uber, exited the store, and appear to have located the vehicle. By the time a card appears, they will likely be boarding or already inside, so the immediate transport need should be resolved. Earlier they chose the Sugar Factory and confirmed the Uber was outside, leaving no durable unresolved navigation task. The plate transcription is also noisy and should not be repeated as verified information.",
     "risiko": "",
     "konfidenz": null,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Open Uber trip",
       "verworfen_weil": "Locating and boarding the nearby vehicle should finish within 30 seconds."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Sugar Factory destination",
       "verworfen_weil": "The destination was already selected and entered when the Uber was ordered."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Switch camera to Drew",
       "verworfen_weil": "The group already announced the switch and can handle it immediately."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [],
     "verdict": "silent",
     "karte": false,
     "grund": "The departure is already underway and no useful need is likely to remain when a card becomes visible."
    },
    "moonshotai/kimi-k3": {
     "lat": 45.5,
     "visible_at": 1850.5,
     "cost": 0.087474,
     "raw": "{\n \"beobachtung\": \"[0:23:13] Speaker 1: 'Alright bet, I'm about to get an Uber to the Sugar Factory.' + [0:27:48] 'Hey, the Uber's outside, shall we?' + [0:28:47] 'All right, everybody! In the Uber' + earlier [0:09:07] 'Maybe we call the place and be like...'\",\n \"vorhersage\": \"When the card appears (30:10-30:30) the group will be settling into the Uber at the start of the ride to the Sugar Factory. Marlon will be on his phone for the next 10-20 minutes, so a call-ahead / venue-check need exists until they arrive.\",\n \"reasoning\": \"The departure signal is real, but transport is already handled: the Uber was ordered at 23:13 and they are boarding it right now, so any booking or navigation card would be redundant. The genuine open risk is the venue itself — they were kicked out of the Sex Museum for streaming and themselves floated calling a manager (9:07), and Jason is already emailing that museum's management, so calling ahead fits how this group operates. The latency works in our favor: the card lands exactly as they sit down in the car, the calmest moment of the next half hour, and the need persists for the whole ride. If the ride turns out short or they decide to just walk in, the card is silent and dismissible.\",\n \"alternativen\": [\n  {\"karte\": \"Book Uber to Sugar Factory\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"Uber was already ordered at 23:13 and they are physically boarding it now; the need is gone.\"},\n  {\"karte\": \"Save later options: Color Factory, Beat the Bomb, Wax Museum\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"Nice idea capture, but less urgent than protecting the imminent Sugar Factory segment from another filming ejection.\"},\n  {\"karte\": \"Sex Museum approval follow-up reminder\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"Jason already emailed and management will text him; nothing actionable for Marlon right now.\"}\n ],\n \"karte\": true,\n \"kategorie\": \"place\",\n \"titel\": \"Sugar Factory: call ahead?\",\n \"zeile\": \"Ask about filming permission and crowd level before you get there.\",\n \"aktion\": \"Single tap opens the Sugar Factory listing in Maps with a call button and directions.\",\n \"optionen\": [\"Call venue now\", \"Open in Maps\", \"Dismiss\"],\n \"haltbar_s\": 900,\n \"konfidenz\": 0.6,\n \"risiko\": \"Wrong if the Uber destination changed en route or they already resolved to just walk in; annoying if the ride ends within a minute of the card appearing.\",\n \"grund\": \"They are boarding the Uber to the Sugar Factory, and after getting kicked out of the museum a quick call about filming permission protects the next segment.\"\n}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "[0:23:13] Speaker 1: 'Alright bet, I'm about to get an Uber to the Sugar Factory.' + [0:27:48] 'Hey, the Uber's outside, shall we?' + [0:28:47] 'All right, everybody! In the Uber' + earlier [0:09:07] 'Maybe we call the place and be like...'",
     "vorhersage": "When the card appears (30:10-30:30) the group will be settling into the Uber at the start of the ride to the Sugar Factory. Marlon will be on his phone for the next 10-20 minutes, so a call-ahead / venue-check need exists until they arrive.",
     "reasoning": "The departure signal is real, but transport is already handled: the Uber was ordered at 23:13 and they are boarding it right now, so any booking or navigation card would be redundant. The genuine open risk is the venue itself — they were kicked out of the Sex Museum for streaming and themselves floated calling a manager (9:07), and Jason is already emailing that museum's management, so calling ahead fits how this group operates. The latency works in our favor: the card lands exactly as they sit down in the car, the calmest moment of the next half hour, and the need persists for the whole ride. If the ride turns out short or they decide to just walk in, the card is silent and dismissible.",
     "risiko": "Wrong if the Uber destination changed en route or they already resolved to just walk in; annoying if the ride ends within a minute of the card appearing.",
     "konfidenz": 0.6,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Book Uber to Sugar Factory",
       "verworfen_weil": "Uber was already ordered at 23:13 and they are physically boarding it now; the need is gone."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Save later options: Color Factory, Beat the Bomb, Wax Museum",
       "verworfen_weil": "Nice idea capture, but less urgent than protecting the imminent Sugar Factory segment from another filming ejection."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Sex Museum approval follow-up reminder",
       "verworfen_weil": "Jason already emailed and management will text him; nothing actionable for Marlon right now."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [
      "Call venue now",
      "Open in Maps",
      "Dismiss"
     ],
     "karte": true,
     "kategorie": "place",
     "titel": "Sugar Factory: call ahead?",
     "zeile": "Ask about filming permission and crowd level before you get there.",
     "aktion": "Single tap opens the Sugar Factory listing in Maps with a call button and directions.",
     "haltbar_s": 900,
     "grund": "They are boarding the Uber to the Sugar Factory, and after getting kicked out of the museum a quick call about filming permission protects the next segment.",
     "verdict": "late",
     "late_by": 458,
     "need": "place",
     "need_start": 626
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "t": 1950,
   "signal": "aufbruch",
   "conf": 0.72,
   "seen_until": 1935,
   "models": {
    "deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash": {
     "lat": 4.2,
     "visible_at": 1959.2,
     "cost": 0.0040587,
     "raw": "{\n  \"beobachtung\": \"[0:30:55] Marlon: \\\"We're going to Times Square. Oh yeah, we're going to Times Square.\\\" and [0:32:14] Speaker 1: \\\"So we're actually going to the Sugar Factory right now? Yeah, I mean we can reroute to anywhere.\\\"\",\n  \"vorhersage\": \"The group is in an Uber with an unresolved destination conflict (Times Square vs Sugar Factory vs Color Factory vs Beat the Bomb). They will need to decide and possibly reroute within the next few minutes, and the need persists until the driver is given a final address.\",\n  \"reasoning\": \"The pre-filter signal 'aufbruch' fired, and indeed the group just departed in an Uber, but the destination is still ambiguous. Earlier they debated Sugar Factory, Color Factory, Beat the Bomb, Wax Museum, and Times Square, and now Marlon says Times Square while another asks about Sugar Factory. A card listing the candidate destinations would help them settle it before the driver commits to a route. The latency of 10-30 seconds is fine because this decision will still be pending when the card appears. This is not a quick under-30-second action; it's an ongoing planning need.\",\n  \"alternativen\": [\n    {\n      \"karte\": \"Book Beat the Bomb\",\n      \"verworfen_weil\": \"They haven't committed to it; too specific while destination is still open.\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"karte\": \"Note idea: Sex Museum segment\",\n      \"verworfen_weil\": \"The museum already said no and they're moving on; not actionable now.\"\n    }\n  ],\n  \"karte\": true,\n  \"kategorie\": \"transport\",\n  \"titel\": \"Uber destination undecided\",\n  \"zeile\": \"Pick a spot so driver can reroute\",\n  \"aktion\": \"Opens a short list of the destinations they mentioned, each tappable to set as Uber destination.\",\n  \"optionen\": [\"Times Square\", \"Sugar Factory\", \"Color Factory\"],\n  \"haltbar_s\": 300,\n  \"konfidenz\": 0.7,\n  \"risiko\": \"If they've already told the driver a final address by the time the card appears, this is redundant and annoying.\",\n  \"grund\": \"They are in an Uber with conflicting destination plans and need to settle it before the driver commits.\"\n}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "[0:30:55] Marlon: \"We're going to Times Square. Oh yeah, we're going to Times Square.\" and [0:32:14] Speaker 1: \"So we're actually going to the Sugar Factory right now? Yeah, I mean we can reroute to anywhere.\"",
     "vorhersage": "The group is in an Uber with an unresolved destination conflict (Times Square vs Sugar Factory vs Color Factory vs Beat the Bomb). They will need to decide and possibly reroute within the next few minutes, and the need persists until the driver is given a final address.",
     "reasoning": "The pre-filter signal 'aufbruch' fired, and indeed the group just departed in an Uber, but the destination is still ambiguous. Earlier they debated Sugar Factory, Color Factory, Beat the Bomb, Wax Museum, and Times Square, and now Marlon says Times Square while another asks about Sugar Factory. A card listing the candidate destinations would help them settle it before the driver commits to a route. The latency of 10-30 seconds is fine because this decision will still be pending when the card appears. This is not a quick under-30-second action; it's an ongoing planning need.",
     "risiko": "If they've already told the driver a final address by the time the card appears, this is redundant and annoying.",
     "konfidenz": 0.7,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Book Beat the Bomb",
       "verworfen_weil": "They haven't committed to it; too specific while destination is still open."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Note idea: Sex Museum segment",
       "verworfen_weil": "The museum already said no and they're moving on; not actionable now."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [
      "Times Square",
      "Sugar Factory",
      "Color Factory"
     ],
     "karte": true,
     "kategorie": "transport",
     "titel": "Uber destination undecided",
     "zeile": "Pick a spot so driver can reroute",
     "aktion": "Opens a short list of the destinations they mentioned, each tappable to set as Uber destination.",
     "haltbar_s": 300,
     "grund": "They are in an Uber with conflicting destination plans and need to settle it before the driver commits.",
     "verdict": "late",
     "late_by": 536,
     "need": "transport",
     "need_start": 1323
    },
    "z-ai/glm-5.3-flash": {
     "lat": 7.8,
     "visible_at": 1962.8,
     "cost": 0.00138064,
     "raw": "{\n \"beobachtung\": \"[0:31:07] Marlon: 'I aimed it to the Sugar Factory' and [0:32:14] 'So we're actually going to the Sugar Factory right now? Yeah, I mean we can reroute to anywhere.'\",\n \"reasoning\": \"The group is already seated in a black Uber with the destination set to Sugar Factory, so the 'aufbruch' signal is stale — the departure already happened around 0:28:47 and transport is solved. The last exchange is casual debate about possibly rerouting, not a request for navigation or booking. By the time a card would appear (32:40-33:00), they will still be mid-ride with nothing unresolved. Earlier context (kicked out of the sex museum, mobbed by fans) is already handled via the Uber escape.\",\n \"alternativen\": [{\"karte\": \"Reroute options to Color Factory or Beat the Bomb\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"They only floated alternatives jokingly and no one asked for them; showing options mid-ride would be noise.\"}, {\"karte\": \"Sugar Factory info card\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"Destination already entered in the Uber; a place card adds nothing they don't already know.\"}],\n \"karte\": false,\n \"grund\": \"Transport is already underway with a set destination, so no need exists when the card would become visible.\"\n}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "[0:31:07] Marlon: 'I aimed it to the Sugar Factory' and [0:32:14] 'So we're actually going to the Sugar Factory right now? Yeah, I mean we can reroute to anywhere.'",
     "vorhersage": "",
     "reasoning": "The group is already seated in a black Uber with the destination set to Sugar Factory, so the 'aufbruch' signal is stale — the departure already happened around 0:28:47 and transport is solved. The last exchange is casual debate about possibly rerouting, not a request for navigation or booking. By the time a card would appear (32:40-33:00), they will still be mid-ride with nothing unresolved. Earlier context (kicked out of the sex museum, mobbed by fans) is already handled via the Uber escape.",
     "risiko": "",
     "konfidenz": null,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Reroute options to Color Factory or Beat the Bomb",
       "verworfen_weil": "They only floated alternatives jokingly and no one asked for them; showing options mid-ride would be noise."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Sugar Factory info card",
       "verworfen_weil": "Destination already entered in the Uber; a place card adds nothing they don't already know."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [],
     "verdict": "silent",
     "karte": false,
     "grund": "Transport is already underway with a set destination, so no need exists when the card would become visible."
    },
    "openai/gpt-5.6-luna": {
     "lat": 7.5,
     "visible_at": 1962.5,
     "cost": 0.0037905,
     "raw": "{\n  \"beobachtung\": \"At 32:14, the group asks, \\\"So we're actually going to the Sugar Factory right now?\\\" and says, \\\"we can reroute to anywhere.\\\"\",\n  \"vorhersage\": \"They will need to settle and update the Uber destination while still in the vehicle, likely for several minutes.\",\n  \"reasoning\": \"The destination is actively conflicting: Times Square was announced earlier, but the ride was aimed at Sugar Factory. This remains useful after the card latency because they are already en route and explicitly discussing rerouting. Earlier plans for the Sex Museum fell through, while Times Square and Sugar Factory remained live options. A destination card can reduce repeated discussion and prevent arriving at the wrong place.\",\n  \"alternativen\": [\n    {\n      \"karte\": \"Compare nearby attractions\",\n      \"verworfen_weil\": \"The immediate need is choosing the current Uber destination, not browsing more places.\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"karte\": \"Find a food stop\",\n      \"verworfen_weil\": \"They already have an active destination debate and are inside the Uber.\"\n    }\n  ],\n  \"karte\": true,\n  \"kategorie\": \"transport\",\n  \"titel\": \"Choose Uber destination\",\n  \"zeile\": \"Pick the destination before the driver continues.\",\n  \"aktion\": \"Set the selected destination in the Uber trip.\",\n  \"optionen\": [\n    \"Sugar Factory\",\n    \"Times Square\",\n    \"Choose elsewhere\"\n  ],\n  \"haltbar_s\": 180,\n  \"konfidenz\": 0.93,\n  \"risiko\": \"The card is annoying if the group agrees on a destination before it appears or the driver cannot reroute.\",\n  \"grund\": \"The group is already in transit but has not resolved whether to go to Sugar Factory or Times Square.\"\n}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "At 32:14, the group asks, \"So we're actually going to the Sugar Factory right now?\" and says, \"we can reroute to anywhere.\"",
     "vorhersage": "They will need to settle and update the Uber destination while still in the vehicle, likely for several minutes.",
     "reasoning": "The destination is actively conflicting: Times Square was announced earlier, but the ride was aimed at Sugar Factory. This remains useful after the card latency because they are already en route and explicitly discussing rerouting. Earlier plans for the Sex Museum fell through, while Times Square and Sugar Factory remained live options. A destination card can reduce repeated discussion and prevent arriving at the wrong place.",
     "risiko": "The card is annoying if the group agrees on a destination before it appears or the driver cannot reroute.",
     "konfidenz": 0.93,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Compare nearby attractions",
       "verworfen_weil": "The immediate need is choosing the current Uber destination, not browsing more places."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Find a food stop",
       "verworfen_weil": "They already have an active destination debate and are inside the Uber."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [
      "Sugar Factory",
      "Times Square",
      "Choose elsewhere"
     ],
     "karte": true,
     "kategorie": "transport",
     "titel": "Choose Uber destination",
     "zeile": "Pick the destination before the driver continues.",
     "aktion": "Set the selected destination in the Uber trip.",
     "haltbar_s": 180,
     "grund": "The group is already in transit but has not resolved whether to go to Sugar Factory or Times Square.",
     "verdict": "late",
     "late_by": 540,
     "need": "transport",
     "need_start": 1323
    },
    "google/gemini-3.8-flash": {
     "lat": 7.8,
     "visible_at": 1962.8,
     "cost": 0.013029,
     "raw": "{\"beobachtung\": \"At [0:31:12] Marlon states 'All right, I aimed it to the Sugar Factory' and at [0:32:14] Speaker 1 asks 'So we're actually going to the Sugar Factory right now?'\", \"reasoning\": \"The 'aufbruch' signal triggered late; the group has already boarded the Uber around minute 30 and is currently riding toward the Sugar Factory while bantering with the driver. Marlon already set the destination in the rideshare app, so no transport or navigation assistance is needed. Interjecting with location info or rerouting options while they are casually chatting would be distracting.\", \"alternativen\": [{\"karte\": \"Details or ETA for Sugar Factory New York\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"Marlon already booked the ride in his app, making an extra info card redundant and unrequested.\"}], \"karte\": false, \"grund\": \"The group has already departed and is comfortably riding in the Uber, so no action is required.\"}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "At [0:31:12] Marlon states 'All right, I aimed it to the Sugar Factory' and at [0:32:14] Speaker 1 asks 'So we're actually going to the Sugar Factory right now?'",
     "vorhersage": "",
     "reasoning": "The 'aufbruch' signal triggered late; the group has already boarded the Uber around minute 30 and is currently riding toward the Sugar Factory while bantering with the driver. Marlon already set the destination in the rideshare app, so no transport or navigation assistance is needed. Interjecting with location info or rerouting options while they are casually chatting would be distracting.",
     "risiko": "",
     "konfidenz": null,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Details or ETA for Sugar Factory New York",
       "verworfen_weil": "Marlon already booked the ride in his app, making an extra info card redundant and unrequested."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [],
     "verdict": "silent",
     "karte": false,
     "grund": "The group has already departed and is comfortably riding in the Uber, so no action is required."
    },
    "openai/gpt-5.6-sol": {
     "lat": 7.6,
     "visible_at": 1962.6,
     "cost": 0.032911,
     "raw": "{\"beobachtung\":\"[32:14] Speaker 1: “So we're actually going to the Sugar Factory right now? Yeah, I mean we can reroute to anywhere.”\",\"reasoning\":\"The group has already departed and the Uber is routed to Sugar Factory, so the departure need has ended. The latest exchange suggests brief destination uncertainty, but they can resolve it verbally or through the already-open ride app within the card latency window. Earlier they discussed Color Factory and Beat the Bomb, yet no alternative gained clear agreement. A card appearing 10–30 seconds later would likely duplicate a decision already made in the car.\",\"alternativen\":[{\"karte\":\"Choose next destination\",\"verworfen_weil\":\"The active Uber route and in-car conversation will likely settle this in under 30 seconds.\"},{\"karte\":\"Track museum filming approval\",\"verworfen_weil\":\"Jace already emailed management and provided his phone number for their response.\"}],\"karte\":false,\"grund\":\"The group is already underway, and the remaining destination question is likely too short-lived for a useful card.\"}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "[32:14] Speaker 1: “So we're actually going to the Sugar Factory right now? Yeah, I mean we can reroute to anywhere.”",
     "vorhersage": "",
     "reasoning": "The group has already departed and the Uber is routed to Sugar Factory, so the departure need has ended. The latest exchange suggests brief destination uncertainty, but they can resolve it verbally or through the already-open ride app within the card latency window. Earlier they discussed Color Factory and Beat the Bomb, yet no alternative gained clear agreement. A card appearing 10–30 seconds later would likely duplicate a decision already made in the car.",
     "risiko": "",
     "konfidenz": null,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Choose next destination",
       "verworfen_weil": "The active Uber route and in-car conversation will likely settle this in under 30 seconds."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Track museum filming approval",
       "verworfen_weil": "Jace already emailed management and provided his phone number for their response."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [],
     "verdict": "silent",
     "karte": false,
     "grund": "The group is already underway, and the remaining destination question is likely too short-lived for a useful card."
    },
    "moonshotai/kimi-k3": {
     "lat": 78.2,
     "visible_at": 2033.2,
     "cost": 0.0908589,
     "raw": "{\n \"beobachtung\": \"[0:32:14] 'So we're actually going to the Sugar Factory right now? — Yeah, I mean we can reroute to anywhere.' Plus [0:31:12] Marlon: 'I aimed it to the Sugar Factory' vs. [0:30:55] 'We're going to Times Square.'\",\n \"vorhersage\": \"When the card lands (~32:40-33:00) the group is still in the Uber with the destination openly debated; the in-app destination needs confirming or changing before arrival. The need persists for the whole ride, roughly 10-15 minutes.\",\n \"reasoning\": \"The final transcript line is an unresolved destination debate, so the need is alive exactly when the card becomes visible. There is a concrete inconsistency: the Uber was aimed at the Sugar Factory while Times Square was announced, and fallback spots (Wax Museum, Color Factory, Beat the Bomb) are still in play from earlier in the stream. Later is pointless because once they arrive or settle it verbally with the driver the decision is locked. The 10-30s latency is safe because this is a minutes-long ride decision, not a sub-30-second task. Even if they verbally pick Sugar Factory, a one-tap confirm of the app destination remains useful cleanup.\",\n \"alternativen\": [\n  {\"karte\": \"Sugar Factory info card (hours, address, table booking)\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"They may reroute within a minute, killing the card; hours and address would need placeholders and a walk-in seems likely.\"},\n  {\"karte\": \"Followup: Sex Museum manager callback pending\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"Pure passive waiting — Jason already emailed and left his number; no tap action helps right now.\"},\n  {\"karte\": \"Note card: save Beat the Bomb / Color Factory for later\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"Idea capture is secondary while the live destination decision dominates the next few minutes.\"}\n ],\n \"karte\": true,\n \"kategorie\": \"transport\",\n \"titel\": \"Uber destination: confirm or reroute?\",\n \"zeile\": \"App aimed at Sugar Factory, driver heard Times Square — settle it now?\",\n \"aktion\": \"Opens the Uber app on the current trip so Marlon can confirm or change the destination.\",\n \"optionen\": [\"Keep Sugar Factory\", \"Reroute to Times Square\", \"Reroute: other discussed spot\"],\n \"haltbar_s\": 600,\n \"konfidenz\": 0.6,\n \"risiko\": \"Annoying if they already settled the destination with the driver out loud and the app matches; wrong if the ride ends sooner than expected.\",\n \"grund\": \"The destination is openly undecided in the last line and the app/driver mismatch is a one-tap fix that stays relevant for the whole ride.\"\n}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "[0:32:14] 'So we're actually going to the Sugar Factory right now? — Yeah, I mean we can reroute to anywhere.' Plus [0:31:12] Marlon: 'I aimed it to the Sugar Factory' vs. [0:30:55] 'We're going to Times Square.'",
     "vorhersage": "When the card lands (~32:40-33:00) the group is still in the Uber with the destination openly debated; the in-app destination needs confirming or changing before arrival. The need persists for the whole ride, roughly 10-15 minutes.",
     "reasoning": "The final transcript line is an unresolved destination debate, so the need is alive exactly when the card becomes visible. There is a concrete inconsistency: the Uber was aimed at the Sugar Factory while Times Square was announced, and fallback spots (Wax Museum, Color Factory, Beat the Bomb) are still in play from earlier in the stream. Later is pointless because once they arrive or settle it verbally with the driver the decision is locked. The 10-30s latency is safe because this is a minutes-long ride decision, not a sub-30-second task. Even if they verbally pick Sugar Factory, a one-tap confirm of the app destination remains useful cleanup.",
     "risiko": "Annoying if they already settled the destination with the driver out loud and the app matches; wrong if the ride ends sooner than expected.",
     "konfidenz": 0.6,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Sugar Factory info card (hours, address, table booking)",
       "verworfen_weil": "They may reroute within a minute, killing the card; hours and address would need placeholders and a walk-in seems likely."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Followup: Sex Museum manager callback pending",
       "verworfen_weil": "Pure passive waiting — Jason already emailed and left his number; no tap action helps right now."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Note card: save Beat the Bomb / Color Factory for later",
       "verworfen_weil": "Idea capture is secondary while the live destination decision dominates the next few minutes."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [
      "Keep Sugar Factory",
      "Reroute to Times Square",
      "Reroute: other discussed spot"
     ],
     "karte": true,
     "kategorie": "transport",
     "titel": "Uber destination: confirm or reroute?",
     "zeile": "App aimed at Sugar Factory, driver heard Times Square — settle it now?",
     "aktion": "Opens the Uber app on the current trip so Marlon can confirm or change the destination.",
     "haltbar_s": 600,
     "grund": "The destination is openly undecided in the last line and the app/driver mismatch is a one-tap fix that stays relevant for the whole ride.",
     "verdict": "late",
     "late_by": 610,
     "need": "transport",
     "need_start": 1323
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "t": 2040,
   "signal": "ankuendigung",
   "conf": 0.63,
   "seen_until": 2025,
   "models": {
    "deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash": {
     "lat": 8.5,
     "visible_at": 2053.5,
     "cost": 0.00186082,
     "raw": "{\n  \"beobachtung\": \"[0:32:57] Marlon: \\\"Okay, let's head after this then. Sir, sir, I rerouted it to the Color Factory.\\\" and [0:32:37] Speaker 4: \\\"Oh wait, Oct asked what time we're coming by the way. Who? Oct.\\\"\",\n  \"vorhersage\": \"The group is in an Uber heading to the Color Factory, but they have an open invitation from Oct to visit later. They will need to decide on a time and coordinate with Oct, which is a long-lasting need that won't be resolved in under 30 seconds.\",\n  \"reasoning\": \"The pre-filter signal 'ankuendigung' fired, and the transcript shows an announcement of a plan to visit Oct after the Color Factory. This is a future commitment that requires scheduling and coordination. The card should appear after the current Uber ride, so the need will still exist. Earlier in the stream, they discussed various plans (Sugar Factory, Color Factory, Beat the Bomb) but Oct is a specific person they need to meet. The latency of 10-30 seconds means the card will appear while they are still in the Uber, which is appropriate for planning ahead.\",\n  \"alternativen\": [\n    {\n      \"karte\": \"Color Factory details\",\n      \"verworfen_weil\": \"They already rerouted the Uber and are on their way; no immediate action needed.\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"karte\": \"Sugar Factory info\",\n      \"verworfen_weil\": \"They decided to go to Color Factory instead, so this is no longer relevant.\"\n    }\n  ],\n  \"karte\": true,\n  \"kategorie\": \"followup\",\n  \"titel\": \"Coordinate with Oct\",\n  \"zeile\": \"Oct asked what time you're coming by. Reply?\",\n  \"aktion\": \"Open a message draft to Oct with suggested times.\",\n  \"optionen\": [\n    \"Suggest [time]\",\n    \"Ask for location\",\n    \"Decline for now\"\n  ],\n  \"haltbar_s\": 3600,\n  \"konfidenz\": 0.8,\n  \"risiko\": \"If Oct is not actually expecting them or if the group has already decided not to go, this card could be annoying.\",\n  \"grund\": \"The group has an open invitation from Oct and needs to coordinate a time, which is a long-lasting need.\"\n}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "[0:32:57] Marlon: \"Okay, let's head after this then. Sir, sir, I rerouted it to the Color Factory.\" and [0:32:37] Speaker 4: \"Oh wait, Oct asked what time we're coming by the way. Who? Oct.\"",
     "vorhersage": "The group is in an Uber heading to the Color Factory, but they have an open invitation from Oct to visit later. They will need to decide on a time and coordinate with Oct, which is a long-lasting need that won't be resolved in under 30 seconds.",
     "reasoning": "The pre-filter signal 'ankuendigung' fired, and the transcript shows an announcement of a plan to visit Oct after the Color Factory. This is a future commitment that requires scheduling and coordination. The card should appear after the current Uber ride, so the need will still exist. Earlier in the stream, they discussed various plans (Sugar Factory, Color Factory, Beat the Bomb) but Oct is a specific person they need to meet. The latency of 10-30 seconds means the card will appear while they are still in the Uber, which is appropriate for planning ahead.",
     "risiko": "If Oct is not actually expecting them or if the group has already decided not to go, this card could be annoying.",
     "konfidenz": 0.8,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Color Factory details",
       "verworfen_weil": "They already rerouted the Uber and are on their way; no immediate action needed."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Sugar Factory info",
       "verworfen_weil": "They decided to go to Color Factory instead, so this is no longer relevant."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [
      "Suggest [time]",
      "Ask for location",
      "Decline for now"
     ],
     "karte": true,
     "kategorie": "followup",
     "titel": "Coordinate with Oct",
     "zeile": "Oct asked what time you're coming by. Reply?",
     "aktion": "Open a message draft to Oct with suggested times.",
     "haltbar_s": 3600,
     "grund": "The group has an open invitation from Oct and needs to coordinate a time, which is a long-lasting need.",
     "verdict": "hit",
     "need": "followup",
     "need_start": 1957
    },
    "z-ai/glm-5.3-flash": {
     "lat": 14.2,
     "visible_at": 2059.2,
     "cost": 0.00155514,
     "raw": "{\n \"beobachtung\": \"[0:32:37] Speaker 4: \\\"Oh wait, Oct asked what time we're coming by the way.\\\" ... [0:32:53] \\\"They all texted the group chat and said, hey guys, can we have Oct today?\\\" ... [0:32:57] Marlon: \\\"Okay, let's head after this then.\\\"\",\n \"vorhersage\": \"The group is in the Uber to the Color Factory and has agreed to visit Oct afterwards, but Oct is still waiting for a time. When the card becomes visible they will likely still be riding (2-10 min), so an unanswered \\\"what time?\\\" remains open.\",\n \"reasoning\": \"The plan was announced at 32:37-32:57 and explicitly deferred (\\\"after this\\\"), so the need persists well beyond the 10-30s card latency. Nobody answered Oct's question about the time, and the group is distracted by the color/shade argument, so it won't resolve itself in under 30 seconds. A card reminding them to reply to Oct with a time fits the ride window; once they arrive at the Color Factory the reminder loses urgency but the visit still needs scheduling.\",\n \"alternativen\": [{\"karte\": \"Reroute check: Color Factory vs Sugar Factory\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"The reroute was already decided and told to the driver at 32:57-33:02, no open need.\"}, {\"karte\": \"Sex museum manager follow-up\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"Jay is already emailing management and they will text back; that thread is owned by Jay, not worth a card.\"}],\n \"karte\": true,\n \"kategorie\": \"followup\",\n \"titel\": \"Reply to Oct: visit time\",\n \"zeile\": \"Oct asked what time you're coming by\",\n \"aktion\": \"Opens the message thread with Oct to send a time\",\n \"optionen\": [\"Send current ETA\", \"Suggest time after Color Factory\", \"Ask Oct for availability\"],\n \"haltbar_s\": 900,\n \"konfidenz\": 0.72,\n \"risiko\": \"If Oct's question was already answered off-transcript or the group decides to skip Oct, the card is noise during an already chaotic ride.\",\n \"grund\": \"An announced plan (visiting Oct after the Color Factory) is still missing its concrete time, and the group is currently distracted, so a silent reminder card is useful during the ride.\"\n}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "[0:32:37] Speaker 4: \"Oh wait, Oct asked what time we're coming by the way.\" ... [0:32:53] \"They all texted the group chat and said, hey guys, can we have Oct today?\" ... [0:32:57] Marlon: \"Okay, let's head after this then.\"",
     "vorhersage": "The group is in the Uber to the Color Factory and has agreed to visit Oct afterwards, but Oct is still waiting for a time. When the card becomes visible they will likely still be riding (2-10 min), so an unanswered \"what time?\" remains open.",
     "reasoning": "The plan was announced at 32:37-32:57 and explicitly deferred (\"after this\"), so the need persists well beyond the 10-30s card latency. Nobody answered Oct's question about the time, and the group is distracted by the color/shade argument, so it won't resolve itself in under 30 seconds. A card reminding them to reply to Oct with a time fits the ride window; once they arrive at the Color Factory the reminder loses urgency but the visit still needs scheduling.",
     "risiko": "If Oct's question was already answered off-transcript or the group decides to skip Oct, the card is noise during an already chaotic ride.",
     "konfidenz": 0.72,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Reroute check: Color Factory vs Sugar Factory",
       "verworfen_weil": "The reroute was already decided and told to the driver at 32:57-33:02, no open need."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Sex museum manager follow-up",
       "verworfen_weil": "Jay is already emailing management and they will text back; that thread is owned by Jay, not worth a card."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [
      "Send current ETA",
      "Suggest time after Color Factory",
      "Ask Oct for availability"
     ],
     "karte": true,
     "kategorie": "followup",
     "titel": "Reply to Oct: visit time",
     "zeile": "Oct asked what time you're coming by",
     "aktion": "Opens the message thread with Oct to send a time",
     "haltbar_s": 900,
     "grund": "An announced plan (visiting Oct after the Color Factory) is still missing its concrete time, and the group is currently distracted, so a silent reminder card is useful during the ride.",
     "verdict": "hit",
     "need": "followup",
     "need_start": 1957
    },
    "openai/gpt-5.6-luna": {
     "lat": 10.1,
     "visible_at": 2055.1,
     "cost": 0.0040813,
     "raw": "{\n  \"beobachtung\": \"At 32:58, a speaker says, \\\"Sir, sir, I rerouted it to the Color Factory,\\\" and Marlon accepts the plan at 33:05.\",\n  \"vorhersage\": \"They will need to verify Color Factory hours, entry availability, or booking details while traveling there; this need may last through arrival.\",\n  \"reasoning\": \"The destination was just changed in the Uber, so venue details may still be unknown and useful before they arrive. This is more durable than the ongoing jokes because they are actively traveling to a specific attraction. The 10–30 second card latency should still catch them en route, before arrival. Earlier, the group repeatedly compared attractions and questioned whether places were real or worthwhile, suggesting they may need confirmation before committing.\",\n  \"alternativen\": [\n    {\n      \"karte\": \"Oct meetup follow-up\",\n      \"verworfen_weil\": \"It was mentioned as a later plan, but no time or concrete action is currently needed.\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"karte\": \"Capture black color joke\",\n      \"verworfen_weil\": \"The exchange is spontaneous banter with no clear intent to preserve or post it.\"\n    }\n  ],\n  \"karte\": true,\n  \"kategorie\": \"booking\",\n  \"titel\": \"Color Factory Details\",\n  \"zeile\": \"Check availability before arriving\",\n  \"aktion\": \"Open Color Factory booking and venue details\",\n  \"optionen\": [\n    \"Check tickets\",\n    \"Check hours\",\n    \"Keep current plan\"\n  ],\n  \"haltbar_s\": 1200,\n  \"konfidenz\": 0.78,\n  \"risiko\": \"The card would be annoying if the Uber reroute was only a joke, the venue is already booked, or they change destinations again.\",\n  \"grund\": \"They are already en route to a newly selected attraction whose hours and admission status are still uncertain.\"\n}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "At 32:58, a speaker says, \"Sir, sir, I rerouted it to the Color Factory,\" and Marlon accepts the plan at 33:05.",
     "vorhersage": "They will need to verify Color Factory hours, entry availability, or booking details while traveling there; this need may last through arrival.",
     "reasoning": "The destination was just changed in the Uber, so venue details may still be unknown and useful before they arrive. This is more durable than the ongoing jokes because they are actively traveling to a specific attraction. The 10–30 second card latency should still catch them en route, before arrival. Earlier, the group repeatedly compared attractions and questioned whether places were real or worthwhile, suggesting they may need confirmation before committing.",
     "risiko": "The card would be annoying if the Uber reroute was only a joke, the venue is already booked, or they change destinations again.",
     "konfidenz": 0.78,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Oct meetup follow-up",
       "verworfen_weil": "It was mentioned as a later plan, but no time or concrete action is currently needed."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Capture black color joke",
       "verworfen_weil": "The exchange is spontaneous banter with no clear intent to preserve or post it."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [
      "Check tickets",
      "Check hours",
      "Keep current plan"
     ],
     "karte": true,
     "kategorie": "booking",
     "titel": "Color Factory Details",
     "zeile": "Check availability before arriving",
     "aktion": "Open Color Factory booking and venue details",
     "haltbar_s": 1200,
     "grund": "They are already en route to a newly selected attraction whose hours and admission status are still uncertain.",
     "verdict": "hit",
     "need": "booking",
     "need_start": 1949
    },
    "google/gemini-3.8-flash": {
     "lat": 14.2,
     "visible_at": 2059.2,
     "cost": 0.01722975,
     "raw": "{\n \"beobachtung\": \"At [0:32:57] Marlon agrees to visit 'Oct' later, and at [0:32:58] Speaker 1 announces they rerouted the Uber to the Color Factory.\",\n \"reasoning\": \"The group is currently in an Uber bantering about colors, and the reroute was already handled by Speaker 1 directly in the rideshare app. Marlon has not requested information on tickets, filming policies, or arrival times for either Color Factory or the tentative later visit to Oct. At 34:00+ latency, displaying an unsolicited informational card would disrupt their active comedic conversation in the cab.\",\n \"alternativen\": [\n  {\n   \"karte\": \"Color Factory admission and filming info\",\n   \"verworfen_weil\": \"The group did not ask for info, and unprompted attraction cards while they banter in an Uber are distracting.\"\n  },\n  {\n   \"karte\": \"Follow-up note for visiting Oct / Ocky later\",\n   \"verworfen_weil\": \"Speaker 4 is already coordinating with the group chat directly, so Marlon does not need a reminder card right now.\"\n  }\n ],\n \"karte\": false,\n \"grund\": \"The group is simply bantering during their cab ride with no unresolved logistical need or streamer request.\"\n}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "At [0:32:57] Marlon agrees to visit 'Oct' later, and at [0:32:58] Speaker 1 announces they rerouted the Uber to the Color Factory.",
     "vorhersage": "",
     "reasoning": "The group is currently in an Uber bantering about colors, and the reroute was already handled by Speaker 1 directly in the rideshare app. Marlon has not requested information on tickets, filming policies, or arrival times for either Color Factory or the tentative later visit to Oct. At 34:00+ latency, displaying an unsolicited informational card would disrupt their active comedic conversation in the cab.",
     "risiko": "",
     "konfidenz": null,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Color Factory admission and filming info",
       "verworfen_weil": "The group did not ask for info, and unprompted attraction cards while they banter in an Uber are distracting."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Follow-up note for visiting Oct / Ocky later",
       "verworfen_weil": "Speaker 4 is already coordinating with the group chat directly, so Marlon does not need a reminder card right now."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [],
     "verdict": "silent",
     "karte": false,
     "grund": "The group is simply bantering during their cab ride with no unresolved logistical need or streamer request."
    },
    "openai/gpt-5.6-sol": {
     "lat": 9.6,
     "visible_at": 2054.6,
     "cost": 0.035731,
     "raw": "{\"beobachtung\":\"[0:32:37] Speaker 4: “Oct asked what time we're coming by the way.” [0:32:57] Marlon: “Okay, let's head after this then.”\",\"vorhersage\":\"They will need to answer Oct with their post–Color Factory plan; the need should persist for several minutes.\",\"reasoning\":\"Oct’s question remains unanswered, while Marlon has now confirmed they intend to visit after the Color Factory. A card now captures that commitment without requiring an invented arrival time. With 10–30 seconds of latency, the current color debate will likely pass, but the pending reply will remain relevant. Their destination changed moments ago, so a flexible message is safer than estimating an ETA.\",\"alternativen\":[{\"karte\":\"Color Factory details\",\"verworfen_weil\":\"The Uber destination is already updated, and no specific venue information was requested.\"},{\"karte\":\"Book Color Factory tickets\",\"verworfen_weil\":\"Nobody established that advance tickets are needed or asked to book.\"}],\"karte\":true,\"kategorie\":\"followup\",\"titel\":\"Reply to Oct\",\"zeile\":\"Say you’re coming after Color Factory; share ETA when known.\",\"aktion\":\"Opens the group chat with a draft reply to Oct.\",\"optionen\":[\"Open group chat\",\"Draft reply\",\"Share ETA later\"],\"haltbar_s\":900,\"konfidenz\":0.82,\"risiko\":\"Annoying if someone already replied off-mic or the Oct visit is canceled.\",\"grund\":\"The group made a lasting plan but still owes Oct a response.\"}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "[0:32:37] Speaker 4: “Oct asked what time we're coming by the way.” [0:32:57] Marlon: “Okay, let's head after this then.”",
     "vorhersage": "They will need to answer Oct with their post–Color Factory plan; the need should persist for several minutes.",
     "reasoning": "Oct’s question remains unanswered, while Marlon has now confirmed they intend to visit after the Color Factory. A card now captures that commitment without requiring an invented arrival time. With 10–30 seconds of latency, the current color debate will likely pass, but the pending reply will remain relevant. Their destination changed moments ago, so a flexible message is safer than estimating an ETA.",
     "risiko": "Annoying if someone already replied off-mic or the Oct visit is canceled.",
     "konfidenz": 0.82,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Color Factory details",
       "verworfen_weil": "The Uber destination is already updated, and no specific venue information was requested."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Book Color Factory tickets",
       "verworfen_weil": "Nobody established that advance tickets are needed or asked to book."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [
      "Open group chat",
      "Draft reply",
      "Share ETA later"
     ],
     "karte": true,
     "kategorie": "followup",
     "titel": "Reply to Oct",
     "zeile": "Say you’re coming after Color Factory; share ETA when known.",
     "aktion": "Opens the group chat with a draft reply to Oct.",
     "haltbar_s": 900,
     "grund": "The group made a lasting plan but still owes Oct a response.",
     "verdict": "hit",
     "need": "followup",
     "need_start": 1957
    },
    "moonshotai/kimi-k3": {
     "lat": 130.4,
     "visible_at": 2175.4,
     "cost": 0.040644,
     "raw": "{\n \"beobachtung\": \"[0:32:57] Speaker 1: 'Sir, sir, I rerouted it to the Color Factory.' — [0:33:02] Driver: 'You changed it?' — 'Yes.'\",\n \"vorhersage\": \"When the card appears (~34:10-34:30) the group is mid-Uber heading to the Color Factory, a spontaneous destination chosen seconds ago with no mention of tickets or hours; they will need entry logistics for the next 10-15 minutes until arrival.\",\n \"reasoning\": \"The destination was picked impulsively in the car, so it is very likely nobody has checked tickets or opening hours yet. Earlier this stream they already lost a segment by showing up unprepared at the Sex Museum and getting kicked out, so a pre-arrival check has proven value. The Uber ride is exactly the right window: once they arrive, a sold-out or closed venue means a wasted trip, and after arrival the card is useless. The 10-30s latency is harmless because the need persists for the whole ride. Plans have flipped twice (Sugar Factory, then Color Factory), so confidence is moderate, not high.\",\n \"alternativen\": [{\"karte\": \"Reply to Oct with an ETA (he asked what time they're coming)\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"A quick text anyone can fire off in seconds; already being discussed live, so likely resolved before or shortly after the card appears.\"}, {\"karte\": \"Save 'Beat the Bomb' as an idea for later\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"Interest was brief and they already committed to the Color Factory; too speculative to earn the one card slot.\"}],\n \"karte\": true,\n \"kategorie\": \"booking\",\n \"titel\": \"Color Factory: tickets before arrival\",\n \"zeile\": \"You're en route now — timed entry is common here; check today's tickets and hours.\",\n \"aktion\": \"Opens the Color Factory tickets/hours page to check availability and book for the group.\",\n \"optionen\": [\"Open ticket booking\", \"Show hours in Maps\", \"Call the venue\"],\n \"haltbar_s\": 900,\n \"konfidenz\": 0.62,\n \"risiko\": \"Annoying if they already have tickets, know the venue well, or reroute a third time before arriving.\",\n \"grund\": \"They just spontaneously rerouted to the Color Factory with no logistics checked, and the ride is the ideal window to secure tickets before a wasted arrival.\"\n}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "[0:32:57] Speaker 1: 'Sir, sir, I rerouted it to the Color Factory.' — [0:33:02] Driver: 'You changed it?' — 'Yes.'",
     "vorhersage": "When the card appears (~34:10-34:30) the group is mid-Uber heading to the Color Factory, a spontaneous destination chosen seconds ago with no mention of tickets or hours; they will need entry logistics for the next 10-15 minutes until arrival.",
     "reasoning": "The destination was picked impulsively in the car, so it is very likely nobody has checked tickets or opening hours yet. Earlier this stream they already lost a segment by showing up unprepared at the Sex Museum and getting kicked out, so a pre-arrival check has proven value. The Uber ride is exactly the right window: once they arrive, a sold-out or closed venue means a wasted trip, and after arrival the card is useless. The 10-30s latency is harmless because the need persists for the whole ride. Plans have flipped twice (Sugar Factory, then Color Factory), so confidence is moderate, not high.",
     "risiko": "Annoying if they already have tickets, know the venue well, or reroute a third time before arriving.",
     "konfidenz": 0.62,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Reply to Oct with an ETA (he asked what time they're coming)",
       "verworfen_weil": "A quick text anyone can fire off in seconds; already being discussed live, so likely resolved before or shortly after the card appears."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Save 'Beat the Bomb' as an idea for later",
       "verworfen_weil": "Interest was brief and they already committed to the Color Factory; too speculative to earn the one card slot."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [
      "Open ticket booking",
      "Show hours in Maps",
      "Call the venue"
     ],
     "karte": true,
     "kategorie": "booking",
     "titel": "Color Factory: tickets before arrival",
     "zeile": "You're en route now — timed entry is common here; check today's tickets and hours.",
     "aktion": "Opens the Color Factory tickets/hours page to check availability and book for the group.",
     "haltbar_s": 900,
     "grund": "They just spontaneously rerouted to the Color Factory with no logistics checked, and the ride is the ideal window to secure tickets before a wasted arrival.",
     "verdict": "hit",
     "need": "booking",
     "need_start": 1949
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "t": 2370,
   "signal": "ankuendigung",
   "conf": 0.6,
   "seen_until": 2355,
   "models": {
    "deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash": {
     "lat": 1.8,
     "visible_at": 2376.8,
     "cost": 0.00322715,
     "raw": "{\n  \"beobachtung\": \"At [0:32:57] Marlon says 'Okay, let's head after this then' and at [0:32:58] Speaker 1 says 'Sir, sir, I rerouted it to the Color Factory.'\",\n  \"vorhersage\": \"The group will need to know the Color Factory's address, hours, and whether tickets are available, and this need will persist for at least 15–20 minutes while they ride to and enter the venue.\",\n  \"reasoning\": \"The Uber has already been rerouted to the Color Factory, so the destination is set and the group will need practical details on arrival. The pre-filter signal 'ankuendigung' likely refers to this announced plan, which is a long-lasting need rather than a quick action. A card shown now will still be useful when it becomes visible 10–30 seconds later. Earlier in the stream they discussed Sugar Factory, Beat the Bomb, and other options, but the Color Factory is the confirmed next stop. The main risk is that they change plans again in the car, but the reroute makes that less likely.\",\n  \"alternativen\": [\n    {\n      \"karte\": \"Sugar Factory details\",\n      \"verworfen_weil\": \"They just rerouted away from Sugar Factory to the Color Factory.\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"karte\": \"Beat the Bomb booking\",\n      \"verworfen_weil\": \"It was only mentioned as an alternative, not chosen.\"\n    }\n  ],\n  \"karte\": true,\n  \"kategorie\": \"place\",\n  \"titel\": \"Color Factory details\",\n  \"zeile\": \"Address, hours, tickets for Color Factory\",\n  \"aktion\": \"Open Color Factory info card\",\n  \"optionen\": [\n    \"Show address\",\n    \"Check hours\",\n    \"Book tickets\"\n  ],\n  \"haltbar_s\": 1200,\n  \"konfidenz\": 0.8,\n  \"risiko\": \"If they change destination again before the card appears, it becomes irrelevant.\",\n  \"grund\": \"The group just rerouted their Uber to the Color Factory and will need practical details on arrival.\"\n}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "At [0:32:57] Marlon says 'Okay, let's head after this then' and at [0:32:58] Speaker 1 says 'Sir, sir, I rerouted it to the Color Factory.'",
     "vorhersage": "The group will need to know the Color Factory's address, hours, and whether tickets are available, and this need will persist for at least 15–20 minutes while they ride to and enter the venue.",
     "reasoning": "The Uber has already been rerouted to the Color Factory, so the destination is set and the group will need practical details on arrival. The pre-filter signal 'ankuendigung' likely refers to this announced plan, which is a long-lasting need rather than a quick action. A card shown now will still be useful when it becomes visible 10–30 seconds later. Earlier in the stream they discussed Sugar Factory, Beat the Bomb, and other options, but the Color Factory is the confirmed next stop. The main risk is that they change plans again in the car, but the reroute makes that less likely.",
     "risiko": "If they change destination again before the card appears, it becomes irrelevant.",
     "konfidenz": 0.8,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Sugar Factory details",
       "verworfen_weil": "They just rerouted away from Sugar Factory to the Color Factory."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Beat the Bomb booking",
       "verworfen_weil": "It was only mentioned as an alternative, not chosen."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [
      "Show address",
      "Check hours",
      "Book tickets"
     ],
     "karte": true,
     "kategorie": "place",
     "titel": "Color Factory details",
     "zeile": "Address, hours, tickets for Color Factory",
     "aktion": "Open Color Factory info card",
     "haltbar_s": 1200,
     "grund": "The group just rerouted their Uber to the Color Factory and will need practical details on arrival.",
     "verdict": "false",
     "early_by": 183,
     "need": "place",
     "need_start": 2560
    },
    "z-ai/glm-5.3-flash": {
     "lat": 16.3,
     "visible_at": 2391.3,
     "cost": 0.00180616,
     "raw": "{\n \"beobachtung\": \"[0:32:37] Speaker 4: \\\"Oh wait, Oct asked what time we're coming by the way.\\\" / [0:32:53] \\\"They all texted the group chat and said, hey guys, can we have Oct today?\\\" / [0:32:57] Marlon: \\\"Okay, let's head after this then.\\\"\",\n \"vorhersage\": \"The group is in the Uber to the Color Factory and agreed to visit Oct afterwards; when the card appears (~39:40-45) they will still be in the ride or arriving, and the Oct commitment will remain unfulfilled for the rest of the day.\",\n \"reasoning\": \"The Oct visit was agreed at 32:57 but the destination was then rerouted to the Color Factory at 33:02, so the follow-up can easily be forgotten amid the chaotic day. The driver conversation since 34:00 has been entirely about Pacquiao and family, so nothing has resolved the Oct plan. A card now acts as a reminder while they are still mobile and can plan timing. It stays relevant for at least the rest of the ride and until they actually go to Oct.\",\n \"alternativen\": [{\"karte\": \"Color Factory arrival info\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"They already rerouted and know the destination; no unresolved need.\"}, {\"karte\": \"Museum manager follow-up\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"Jay is already emailing management; that thread is owned by someone else.\"}, {\"karte\": \"Book Beat the Bomb\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"Only casually mentioned at 19:53 and never agreed on; likely abandoned.\"}],\n \"karte\": true,\n \"kategorie\": \"followup\",\n \"titel\": \"Oct visit after this\",\n \"zeile\": \"Group agreed to head to Oct after Color Factory\",\n \"aktion\": \"Open notes with the Oct plan and time asked\",\n \"optionen\": [\"Mark as done\", \"Add time estimate\", \"Message Oct ETA\"],\n \"haltbar_s\": 3600,\n \"konfidenz\": 0.72,\n \"risiko\": \"Wrong if they already messaged Oct off-stream or if the Color Factory stop gets skipped entirely and plans change.\",\n \"grund\": \"The Oct visit was explicitly agreed as the next stop after the factory but has not been scheduled or followed up on.\"\n}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "[0:32:37] Speaker 4: \"Oh wait, Oct asked what time we're coming by the way.\" / [0:32:53] \"They all texted the group chat and said, hey guys, can we have Oct today?\" / [0:32:57] Marlon: \"Okay, let's head after this then.\"",
     "vorhersage": "The group is in the Uber to the Color Factory and agreed to visit Oct afterwards; when the card appears (~39:40-45) they will still be in the ride or arriving, and the Oct commitment will remain unfulfilled for the rest of the day.",
     "reasoning": "The Oct visit was agreed at 32:57 but the destination was then rerouted to the Color Factory at 33:02, so the follow-up can easily be forgotten amid the chaotic day. The driver conversation since 34:00 has been entirely about Pacquiao and family, so nothing has resolved the Oct plan. A card now acts as a reminder while they are still mobile and can plan timing. It stays relevant for at least the rest of the ride and until they actually go to Oct.",
     "risiko": "Wrong if they already messaged Oct off-stream or if the Color Factory stop gets skipped entirely and plans change.",
     "konfidenz": 0.72,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Color Factory arrival info",
       "verworfen_weil": "They already rerouted and know the destination; no unresolved need."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Museum manager follow-up",
       "verworfen_weil": "Jay is already emailing management; that thread is owned by someone else."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Book Beat the Bomb",
       "verworfen_weil": "Only casually mentioned at 19:53 and never agreed on; likely abandoned."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [
      "Mark as done",
      "Add time estimate",
      "Message Oct ETA"
     ],
     "karte": true,
     "kategorie": "followup",
     "titel": "Oct visit after this",
     "zeile": "Group agreed to head to Oct after Color Factory",
     "aktion": "Open notes with the Oct plan and time asked",
     "haltbar_s": 3600,
     "grund": "The Oct visit was explicitly agreed as the next stop after the factory but has not been scheduled or followed up on.",
     "verdict": "hit",
     "need": "followup",
     "need_start": 1957
    },
    "openai/gpt-5.6-luna": {
     "lat": 8.4,
     "visible_at": 2383.4,
     "cost": 0.0046178,
     "raw": "{\n  \"beobachtung\": \"At 32:57, Speaker 4 said, \\\"Okay, let's head after this then,\\\" referring to visiting Oct after the Color Factory.\",\n  \"vorhersage\": \"After the Color Factory, the group will need to remember and coordinate the planned Oct visit for the rest of the day.\",\n  \"reasoning\": \"This is an explicit later plan that can easily be forgotten during the current Uber ride and the next activity. The need will still exist when the card appears because Oct is planned after the current destination, not immediately. The latency makes a reminder more useful than a live navigation card. Earlier, they repeatedly changed destinations and discussed multiple attractions, increasing the chance that this follow-up gets lost.\",\n  \"alternativen\": [\n    {\n      \"karte\": \"Color Factory destination\",\n      \"verworfen_weil\": \"The Uber was already rerouted there, so navigation is currently underway.\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"karte\": \"Book Color Factory\",\n      \"verworfen_weil\": \"They have not explicitly decided to book or provided a date, time, or party size.\"\n    }\n  ],\n  \"karte\": true,\n  \"kategorie\": \"followup\",\n  \"titel\": \"Remember Oct Later\",\n  \"zeile\": \"After Color Factory, follow up on Oct.\",\n  \"aktion\": \"Saves a follow-up note for Oct after the Color Factory.\",\n  \"optionen\": [\n    \"Save follow-up\",\n    \"Open group chat\"\n  ],\n  \"haltbar_s\": 14400,\n  \"konfidenz\": 0.84,\n  \"risiko\": \"The card would be annoying if Oct was only a casual mention or if the group abandons the Color Factory plan.\",\n  \"grund\": \"The group made a concrete later plan but is currently distracted and changing plans frequently.\"\n}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "At 32:57, Speaker 4 said, \"Okay, let's head after this then,\" referring to visiting Oct after the Color Factory.",
     "vorhersage": "After the Color Factory, the group will need to remember and coordinate the planned Oct visit for the rest of the day.",
     "reasoning": "This is an explicit later plan that can easily be forgotten during the current Uber ride and the next activity. The need will still exist when the card appears because Oct is planned after the current destination, not immediately. The latency makes a reminder more useful than a live navigation card. Earlier, they repeatedly changed destinations and discussed multiple attractions, increasing the chance that this follow-up gets lost.",
     "risiko": "The card would be annoying if Oct was only a casual mention or if the group abandons the Color Factory plan.",
     "konfidenz": 0.84,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Color Factory destination",
       "verworfen_weil": "The Uber was already rerouted there, so navigation is currently underway."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Book Color Factory",
       "verworfen_weil": "They have not explicitly decided to book or provided a date, time, or party size."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [
      "Save follow-up",
      "Open group chat"
     ],
     "karte": true,
     "kategorie": "followup",
     "titel": "Remember Oct Later",
     "zeile": "After Color Factory, follow up on Oct.",
     "aktion": "Saves a follow-up note for Oct after the Color Factory.",
     "haltbar_s": 14400,
     "grund": "The group made a concrete later plan but is currently distracted and changing plans frequently.",
     "verdict": "hit",
     "need": "followup",
     "need_start": 1957
    },
    "google/gemini-3.8-flash": {
     "lat": 5.8,
     "visible_at": 2380.8,
     "cost": 0.01440075,
     "raw": "{\n \"beobachtung\": \"[0:39:14] Driver (Uber): 'This is my father. He passed away from Alzheimer's. Oh, so sorry. Oh, he was a boxer too? My father was one of the biggest boxers in Europe.'\",\n \"reasoning\": \"The group is riding in an Uber banter-trolling the driver about Manny Pacquiao, which just turned into a personal conversation about the driver's late father. Destination (Color Factory) is already set in the Uber app. No logistical assistance, booking, or note-taking is requested or required.\",\n \"alternativen\": [\n  {\n   \"karte\": \"Color Factory info/tickets\",\n   \"verworfen_weil\": \"They just rerouted the ride and are actively engaged in conversation; tickets/opening hours were not requested.\"\n  }\n ],\n \"karte\": false,\n \"grund\": \"The false-alarm signal detected social banter in the Uber where no logistical assistance is needed.\"\n}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "[0:39:14] Driver (Uber): 'This is my father. He passed away from Alzheimer's. Oh, so sorry. Oh, he was a boxer too? My father was one of the biggest boxers in Europe.'",
     "vorhersage": "",
     "reasoning": "The group is riding in an Uber banter-trolling the driver about Manny Pacquiao, which just turned into a personal conversation about the driver's late father. Destination (Color Factory) is already set in the Uber app. No logistical assistance, booking, or note-taking is requested or required.",
     "risiko": "",
     "konfidenz": null,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Color Factory info/tickets",
       "verworfen_weil": "They just rerouted the ride and are actively engaged in conversation; tickets/opening hours were not requested."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [],
     "verdict": "silent",
     "karte": false,
     "grund": "The false-alarm signal detected social banter in the Uber where no logistical assistance is needed."
    },
    "openai/gpt-5.6-sol": {
     "lat": 11.5,
     "visible_at": 2386.5,
     "cost": 0.043416,
     "raw": "{\"beobachtung\":\"[0:32:37] Speaker 4: \\\"Oct asked what time we're coming by the way.\\\" [0:32:57] Marlon: \\\"Okay, let's head after this then.\\\"\",\"vorhersage\":\"They will still need to reply to Oct and coordinate the visit for at least 30 minutes.\",\"reasoning\":\"The group agreed to visit Oct after the Color Factory, but no reply or timing confirmation is heard. Seven minutes have passed, so this is no longer a fleeting conversational task and could be forgotten during the ride. The card latency is unlikely to invalidate the reminder because the follow-up remains relevant until Oct receives an answer. Earlier, the ride was rerouted to the Color Factory, making “after Color Factory” the clearest confirmed plan.\",\"alternativen\":[{\"karte\":\"Check Color Factory admission\",\"verworfen_weil\":\"They are already en route, and nobody asked about tickets or availability.\"},{\"karte\":\"Save Sugar Factory for later\",\"verworfen_weil\":\"The group abandoned that destination without clearly planning to return.\"}],\"karte\":true,\"kategorie\":\"followup\",\"titel\":\"Reply to Oct\",\"zeile\":\"Oct asked when; you agreed to visit after Color Factory.\",\"aktion\":\"Open the group chat with a draft saying they plan to come after Color Factory.\",\"optionen\":[\"Send after Color Factory\",\"Ask what time works\",\"Remind me later\"],\"haltbar_s\":1800,\"konfidenz\":0.82,\"risiko\":\"Annoying if someone already replied off-camera or the Oct visit was canceled.\",\"grund\":\"The unresolved message concerns a confirmed later plan and is easy to forget.\"}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "[0:32:37] Speaker 4: \"Oct asked what time we're coming by the way.\" [0:32:57] Marlon: \"Okay, let's head after this then.\"",
     "vorhersage": "They will still need to reply to Oct and coordinate the visit for at least 30 minutes.",
     "reasoning": "The group agreed to visit Oct after the Color Factory, but no reply or timing confirmation is heard. Seven minutes have passed, so this is no longer a fleeting conversational task and could be forgotten during the ride. The card latency is unlikely to invalidate the reminder because the follow-up remains relevant until Oct receives an answer. Earlier, the ride was rerouted to the Color Factory, making “after Color Factory” the clearest confirmed plan.",
     "risiko": "Annoying if someone already replied off-camera or the Oct visit was canceled.",
     "konfidenz": 0.82,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Check Color Factory admission",
       "verworfen_weil": "They are already en route, and nobody asked about tickets or availability."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Save Sugar Factory for later",
       "verworfen_weil": "The group abandoned that destination without clearly planning to return."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [
      "Send after Color Factory",
      "Ask what time works",
      "Remind me later"
     ],
     "karte": true,
     "kategorie": "followup",
     "titel": "Reply to Oct",
     "zeile": "Oct asked when; you agreed to visit after Color Factory.",
     "aktion": "Open the group chat with a draft saying they plan to come after Color Factory.",
     "haltbar_s": 1800,
     "grund": "The unresolved message concerns a confirmed later plan and is easy to forget.",
     "verdict": "repeat",
     "need": "followup",
     "need_start": 1957
    },
    "moonshotai/kimi-k3": {
     "lat": 124.1,
     "visible_at": 2499.1,
     "cost": 0.06017739,
     "raw": "{\n \"beobachtung\": \"[0:32:37] Speaker 4: Oh wait, Oct asked what time we're coming by the way. ... [0:32:49] Because you didn't respond though. ... [0:32:57] Marlon: Okay, let's head after this then.\",\n \"vorhersage\": \"When the card appears (~39:40-40:00) the group is still in the Uber to the Color Factory. Oct's question about their arrival time is still unanswered and stays open until someone replies, likely for the next 1-2 hours until they finish the Color Factory and head over.\",\n \"reasoning\": \"Oct asked for an ETA seven minutes ago and Marlon explicitly had not responded to the group chat; the plan 'let's head after this' confirms the meetup is on but no time was ever sent. That is a classic pending followup that survives the 10-30s card latency easily, unlike the live driver small talk that dominates the transcript right now. Showing it now, during idle Uber time, is better than later when they arrive at the Color Factory and get distracted again. Earlier in the stream the same pattern (Sex Museum manager callback) shows this group loses track of pending messages. The risk that Marlon texted Oct off-mic in the last seven minutes exists but the continuous on-mic driver conversation makes it unlikely.\",\n \"alternativen\": [\n  {\"karte\": \"Sex Museum manager callback status\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"Pure passive waiting on their text to Jason's phone; nothing for Marlon to do right now.\"},\n  {\"karte\": \"Color Factory hours and ticket info\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"They said 'we hit it every goddamn time', so they know the place and never asked for info.\"},\n  {\"karte\": \"Note the Pacquiao bit as a clip idea\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"The bit is already over and captured on the VOD; no one asked to save it.\"}\n ],\n \"karte\": true,\n \"kategorie\": \"followup\",\n \"titel\": \"Oct still waiting on ETA\",\n \"zeile\": \"Oct asked what time you're coming; plan was after the Color Factory.\",\n \"aktion\": \"Opens the group chat with a draft reply to Oct ready to send.\",\n \"optionen\": [\"Draft: about an hour\", \"Draft: after Color Factory\", \"Just open chat\"],\n \"haltbar_s\": 3600,\n \"konfidenz\": 0.55,\n \"risiko\": \"Annoying if Marlon already answered Oct off-mic, or if 'Oct' is a transcription artifact of another name.\",\n \"grund\": \"Oct's arrival-time question has been openly unanswered for seven minutes and the meetup is confirmed for after the Color Factory.\"\n}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "[0:32:37] Speaker 4: Oh wait, Oct asked what time we're coming by the way. ... [0:32:49] Because you didn't respond though. ... [0:32:57] Marlon: Okay, let's head after this then.",
     "vorhersage": "When the card appears (~39:40-40:00) the group is still in the Uber to the Color Factory. Oct's question about their arrival time is still unanswered and stays open until someone replies, likely for the next 1-2 hours until they finish the Color Factory and head over.",
     "reasoning": "Oct asked for an ETA seven minutes ago and Marlon explicitly had not responded to the group chat; the plan 'let's head after this' confirms the meetup is on but no time was ever sent. That is a classic pending followup that survives the 10-30s card latency easily, unlike the live driver small talk that dominates the transcript right now. Showing it now, during idle Uber time, is better than later when they arrive at the Color Factory and get distracted again. Earlier in the stream the same pattern (Sex Museum manager callback) shows this group loses track of pending messages. The risk that Marlon texted Oct off-mic in the last seven minutes exists but the continuous on-mic driver conversation makes it unlikely.",
     "risiko": "Annoying if Marlon already answered Oct off-mic, or if 'Oct' is a transcription artifact of another name.",
     "konfidenz": 0.55,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Sex Museum manager callback status",
       "verworfen_weil": "Pure passive waiting on their text to Jason's phone; nothing for Marlon to do right now."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Color Factory hours and ticket info",
       "verworfen_weil": "They said 'we hit it every goddamn time', so they know the place and never asked for info."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Note the Pacquiao bit as a clip idea",
       "verworfen_weil": "The bit is already over and captured on the VOD; no one asked to save it."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [
      "Draft: about an hour",
      "Draft: after Color Factory",
      "Just open chat"
     ],
     "karte": true,
     "kategorie": "followup",
     "titel": "Oct still waiting on ETA",
     "zeile": "Oct asked what time you're coming; plan was after the Color Factory.",
     "aktion": "Opens the group chat with a draft reply to Oct ready to send.",
     "haltbar_s": 3600,
     "grund": "Oct's arrival-time question has been openly unanswered for seven minutes and the meetup is confirmed for after the Color Factory.",
     "verdict": "hit",
     "need": "followup",
     "need_start": 1957
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "t": 2580,
   "signal": "aufbruch",
   "conf": 0.79,
   "seen_until": 2565,
   "models": {
    "deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash": {
     "lat": 7.8,
     "visible_at": 2592.8,
     "cost": 0.00239499,
     "raw": "{\n  \"beobachtung\": \"[0:42:40] Speaker 1: \\\"What a day. Color Factory's closed. What?\\\" / [0:42:44] Unknown: \\\"No. Come on, bro.\\\" — the group just learned their rerouted destination is closed while still ~4 minutes from arrival in the Uber.\",\n  \"vorhersage\": \"Within the next 10–30 seconds the group will need a replacement destination for the Uber, since the Color Factory is closed and they are still in the car with the driver. The need to pick a new spot will persist for several minutes (until they decide and reroute), so a card will still be relevant when it appears.\",\n  \"reasoning\": \"The pre-filter signal 'aufbruch' matches a real pivot: the group is mid-ride and their chosen destination just turned out to be closed. Earlier in the stream they already floated Sugar Factory, Beat the Bomb, Balloon Museum, Wax Museum, and Times Square, so a shortlist of alternatives is exactly what they need right now. This is not a sub-30-second action — picking a new destination and rerouting the Uber takes minutes. Latency of 10–30s is fine because the decision window is long. I must not invent addresses or hours; use placeholders.\",\n  \"alternativen\": [\n    {\"karte\": \"Sugar Factory als Ziel setzen\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"Sie haben Sugar Factory schon diskutiert und Marlon war skeptisch ('that's not a factory, that's a store'); eine einzelne Option wäre zu eng.\"},\n    {\"karte\": \"Times Square als Ziel bestätigen\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"Wurde bereits als überstimulierend und problematisch eingestuft; kein neuer Mehrwert.\"},\n    {\"karte\": \"Oct kontaktieren / Termin bestätigen\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"Oct wurde nur beiläufig erwähnt ('after this'), kein akuter Bedarf in den nächsten Minuten.\"}\n  ],\n  \"karte\": true,\n  \"kategorie\": \"place\",\n  \"titel\": \"Color Factory zu — Alternativen\",\n  \"zeile\": \"Color Factory ist zu. Neues Ziel für den Uber?\",\n  \"aktion\": \"Öffnet eine Auswahl alternativer Ziele und reroutet den Uber per Tap.\",\n  \"optionen\": [\"Sugar Factory\", \"Beat the Bomb\", \"Balloon Museum\"],\n  \"haltbar_s\": 300,\n  \"konfidenz\": 0.72,\n  \"risiko\": \"Wenn die Gruppe in den nächsten Sekunden schon selbst ein neues Ziel wählt oder der Fahrer bereits umgeleitet wurde, ist die Karte überflüssig.\",\n  \"grund\": \"Das gerade bekannt gewordene 'Color Factory's closed' erzeugt sofortigen Bedarf an einem Ersatzziel, während sie noch im Uber sitzen.\"\n}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "[0:42:40] Speaker 1: \"What a day. Color Factory's closed. What?\" / [0:42:44] Unknown: \"No. Come on, bro.\" — the group just learned their rerouted destination is closed while still ~4 minutes from arrival in the Uber.",
     "vorhersage": "Within the next 10–30 seconds the group will need a replacement destination for the Uber, since the Color Factory is closed and they are still in the car with the driver. The need to pick a new spot will persist for several minutes (until they decide and reroute), so a card will still be relevant when it appears.",
     "reasoning": "The pre-filter signal 'aufbruch' matches a real pivot: the group is mid-ride and their chosen destination just turned out to be closed. Earlier in the stream they already floated Sugar Factory, Beat the Bomb, Balloon Museum, Wax Museum, and Times Square, so a shortlist of alternatives is exactly what they need right now. This is not a sub-30-second action — picking a new destination and rerouting the Uber takes minutes. Latency of 10–30s is fine because the decision window is long. I must not invent addresses or hours; use placeholders.",
     "risiko": "Wenn die Gruppe in den nächsten Sekunden schon selbst ein neues Ziel wählt oder der Fahrer bereits umgeleitet wurde, ist die Karte überflüssig.",
     "konfidenz": 0.72,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Sugar Factory als Ziel setzen",
       "verworfen_weil": "Sie haben Sugar Factory schon diskutiert und Marlon war skeptisch ('that's not a factory, that's a store'); eine einzelne Option wäre zu eng."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Times Square als Ziel bestätigen",
       "verworfen_weil": "Wurde bereits als überstimulierend und problematisch eingestuft; kein neuer Mehrwert."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Oct kontaktieren / Termin bestätigen",
       "verworfen_weil": "Oct wurde nur beiläufig erwähnt ('after this'), kein akuter Bedarf in den nächsten Minuten."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [
      "Sugar Factory",
      "Beat the Bomb",
      "Balloon Museum"
     ],
     "karte": true,
     "kategorie": "place",
     "titel": "Color Factory zu — Alternativen",
     "zeile": "Color Factory ist zu. Neues Ziel für den Uber?",
     "aktion": "Öffnet eine Auswahl alternativer Ziele und reroutet den Uber per Tap.",
     "haltbar_s": 300,
     "grund": "Das gerade bekannt gewordene 'Color Factory's closed' erzeugt sofortigen Bedarf an einem Ersatzziel, während sie noch im Uber sitzen.",
     "verdict": "hit",
     "need": "place",
     "need_start": 2560
    },
    "z-ai/glm-5.3-flash": {
     "lat": 21.0,
     "visible_at": 2606.0,
     "cost": 0.0026397,
     "raw": "{\n \"beobachtung\": \"[0:42:40] Speaker 1: \\\"Color Factory's closed.\\\" — [0:42:44] Unknown: \\\"No. Come on, bro.\\\" The Uber was rerouted to the Color Factory at [0:32:58] instead of the Sugar Factory.\",\n \"vorhersage\": \"In ~10-30s the group is still in the Uber with about 4 minutes of ride left and needs a new destination decision; rerouting to the Sugar Factory (their earlier plan) will stay relevant for several minutes.\",\n \"reasoning\": \"The Color Factory closure just landed and the group will immediately need a fallback; the Sugar Factory was already agreed as the original target before the reroute at [0:32:58], so offering it as the reroute option is grounded in earlier stream context. The latency of 10-30 seconds is fine because the ride has roughly four minutes left and no one has solved the destination yet. This is not a sub-30-second item: choosing and rerouting the Uber takes real discussion.\",\n \"alternativen\": [{\"karte\": \"Book Beat the Bomb tickets\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"Only floated casually at [0:19:53], never agreed on; premature and would derail the immediate reroute decision.\"}, {\"karte\": \"Check Sugar Factory hours\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"Useful but secondary; the primary need is deciding the reroute, and the card can fold that into the destination choice.\"}],\n \"karte\": true,\n \"kategorie\": \"transport\",\n \"titel\": \"Reroute: Sugar Factory?\",\n \"zeile\": \"Color Factory is closed — reroute Uber?\",\n \"aktion\": \"Opens Uber destination change to the Sugar Factory\",\n \"optionen\": [\"Reroute to Sugar Factory\", \"Back to original plan\", \"Pick another spot\"],\n \"haltbar_s\": 240,\n \"konfidenz\": 0.82,\n \"risiko\": \"Wrong if the group already decided a new destination in the unseen 15 seconds or if the closure was a joke; also annoying if Marlon is not the one controlling the Uber app.\",\n \"grund\": \"The rerouted destination just fell through mid-ride, so the group needs the fallback destination decision now.\"\n}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "[0:42:40] Speaker 1: \"Color Factory's closed.\" — [0:42:44] Unknown: \"No. Come on, bro.\" The Uber was rerouted to the Color Factory at [0:32:58] instead of the Sugar Factory.",
     "vorhersage": "In ~10-30s the group is still in the Uber with about 4 minutes of ride left and needs a new destination decision; rerouting to the Sugar Factory (their earlier plan) will stay relevant for several minutes.",
     "reasoning": "The Color Factory closure just landed and the group will immediately need a fallback; the Sugar Factory was already agreed as the original target before the reroute at [0:32:58], so offering it as the reroute option is grounded in earlier stream context. The latency of 10-30 seconds is fine because the ride has roughly four minutes left and no one has solved the destination yet. This is not a sub-30-second item: choosing and rerouting the Uber takes real discussion.",
     "risiko": "Wrong if the group already decided a new destination in the unseen 15 seconds or if the closure was a joke; also annoying if Marlon is not the one controlling the Uber app.",
     "konfidenz": 0.82,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Book Beat the Bomb tickets",
       "verworfen_weil": "Only floated casually at [0:19:53], never agreed on; premature and would derail the immediate reroute decision."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Check Sugar Factory hours",
       "verworfen_weil": "Useful but secondary; the primary need is deciding the reroute, and the card can fold that into the destination choice."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [
      "Reroute to Sugar Factory",
      "Back to original plan",
      "Pick another spot"
     ],
     "karte": true,
     "kategorie": "transport",
     "titel": "Reroute: Sugar Factory?",
     "zeile": "Color Factory is closed — reroute Uber?",
     "aktion": "Opens Uber destination change to the Sugar Factory",
     "haltbar_s": 240,
     "grund": "The rerouted destination just fell through mid-ride, so the group needs the fallback destination decision now.",
     "verdict": "late",
     "late_by": 1183,
     "need": "transport",
     "need_start": 1323
    },
    "openai/gpt-5.6-luna": {
     "lat": 8.3,
     "visible_at": 2593.3,
     "cost": 0.0048743,
     "raw": "{\n  \"beobachtung\": \"\\\"Color Factory's closed. What?\\\" [42:40]\",\n  \"vorhersage\": \"They will need to choose and reach a replacement destination after discovering their planned stop is closed; this need should last several minutes.\",\n  \"reasoning\": \"The current destination is unavailable, and the group is already in transit, so a replacement decision is immediately useful. The need will still exist when the card appears because they must agree on where to reroute or continue. The 10–30 second latency favors a durable navigation choice rather than a transient status update. Earlier they discussed Sugar Factory, Times Square, and visiting Oct after the attraction.\",\n  \"alternativen\": [\n    {\n      \"karte\": \"Color Factory status\",\n      \"verworfen_weil\": \"The transcript already establishes it is closed, so repeating that provides no next action.\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"karte\": \"Find nearby open attractions\",\n      \"verworfen_weil\": \"It could surface unsuitable places while the group already has discussed fallback destinations.\"\n    }\n  ],\n  \"karte\": true,\n  \"kategorie\": \"transport\",\n  \"titel\": \"Choose next stop\",\n  \"zeile\": \"Color Factory is closed—reroute somewhere else?\",\n  \"aktion\": \"Reroute the Uber to the selected destination\",\n  \"optionen\": [\n    \"Sugar Factory\",\n    \"Times Square\",\n    \"Go to Oct\"\n  ],\n  \"haltbar_s\": 360,\n  \"konfidenz\": 0.9,\n  \"risiko\": \"The card would be annoying if they already selected another destination or have arrived and ended the Uber ride.\",\n  \"grund\": \"Their planned attraction is closed, so the group needs an immediate replacement destination and route.\"\n}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "\"Color Factory's closed. What?\" [42:40]",
     "vorhersage": "They will need to choose and reach a replacement destination after discovering their planned stop is closed; this need should last several minutes.",
     "reasoning": "The current destination is unavailable, and the group is already in transit, so a replacement decision is immediately useful. The need will still exist when the card appears because they must agree on where to reroute or continue. The 10–30 second latency favors a durable navigation choice rather than a transient status update. Earlier they discussed Sugar Factory, Times Square, and visiting Oct after the attraction.",
     "risiko": "The card would be annoying if they already selected another destination or have arrived and ended the Uber ride.",
     "konfidenz": 0.9,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Color Factory status",
       "verworfen_weil": "The transcript already establishes it is closed, so repeating that provides no next action."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Find nearby open attractions",
       "verworfen_weil": "It could surface unsuitable places while the group already has discussed fallback destinations."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [
      "Sugar Factory",
      "Times Square",
      "Go to Oct"
     ],
     "karte": true,
     "kategorie": "transport",
     "titel": "Choose next stop",
     "zeile": "Color Factory is closed—reroute somewhere else?",
     "aktion": "Reroute the Uber to the selected destination",
     "haltbar_s": 360,
     "grund": "Their planned attraction is closed, so the group needs an immediate replacement destination and route.",
     "verdict": "repeat",
     "need": "transport",
     "need_start": 1323
    },
    "google/gemini-3.8-flash": {
     "lat": 20.3,
     "visible_at": 2605.3,
     "cost": 0.0213375,
     "raw": "{\"beobachtung\": \"[0:42:40] Speaker 1: Color Factory's closed. [0:42:44] Unknown: No. Come on, bro.\", \"reasoning\": \"The group just realized Color Factory might be closed while riding in an Uber that has about four minutes left. However, the Uber is booked and managed on Speaker 1's phone, not Marlon's, and the group already brainstormed multiple concrete fallbacks just 15 minutes ago (Sugar Factory, Beat the Bomb, Wax Museum, Oct). Popping a navigation or place suggestion card onto Marlon's phone right now would interrupt their live conversation and banter before they even verify the closure or decide what they want to do.\", \"alternativen\": [{\"karte\": \"Fallback destinations (Sugar Factory, Beat the Bomb, Wax Museum)\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"The crew already listed these options earlier, and Speaker 1 controls the Uber app.\"}], \"karte\": false, \"grund\": \"The group is currently in an Uber actively handling their destination change, using fallbacks they already brainstormed, while Marlon does not manage the ride.\"}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "[0:42:40] Speaker 1: Color Factory's closed. [0:42:44] Unknown: No. Come on, bro.",
     "vorhersage": "",
     "reasoning": "The group just realized Color Factory might be closed while riding in an Uber that has about four minutes left. However, the Uber is booked and managed on Speaker 1's phone, not Marlon's, and the group already brainstormed multiple concrete fallbacks just 15 minutes ago (Sugar Factory, Beat the Bomb, Wax Museum, Oct). Popping a navigation or place suggestion card onto Marlon's phone right now would interrupt their live conversation and banter before they even verify the closure or decide what they want to do.",
     "risiko": "",
     "konfidenz": null,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Fallback destinations (Sugar Factory, Beat the Bomb, Wax Museum)",
       "verworfen_weil": "The crew already listed these options earlier, and Speaker 1 controls the Uber app."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [],
     "verdict": "silent",
     "karte": false,
     "grund": "The group is currently in an Uber actively handling their destination change, using fallbacks they already brainstormed, while Marlon does not manage the ride."
    },
    "openai/gpt-5.6-sol": {
     "lat": 6.1,
     "visible_at": 2591.1,
     "cost": 0.042181,
     "raw": "{\"beobachtung\":\"[42:40] Speaker 1: “Color Factory's closed.” [42:44] Unknown: “No. Come on, bro.”\",\"reasoning\":\"Their current destination is unusable, so a reroute card was briefly relevant. However, they are already in an Uber, have several friends coordinating, and previously changed the destination directly in the app within seconds. With the card appearing 10–30 seconds after now, they will likely already be discussing or entering another destination. Earlier options such as Sugar Factory were already known to the group, so a card would add little.\",\"alternativen\":[{\"karte\":\"Find open nearby attractions\",\"verworfen_weil\":\"The group can search or reroute in the Uber app faster than the card latency.\"},{\"karte\":\"Reroute to Sugar Factory\",\"verworfen_weil\":\"They already know this option, and its current hours or availability are not confirmed.\"}],\"karte\":false,\"grund\":\"The need is urgent but likely to be resolved by the group before a card becomes visible.\"}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "[42:40] Speaker 1: “Color Factory's closed.” [42:44] Unknown: “No. Come on, bro.”",
     "vorhersage": "",
     "reasoning": "Their current destination is unusable, so a reroute card was briefly relevant. However, they are already in an Uber, have several friends coordinating, and previously changed the destination directly in the app within seconds. With the card appearing 10–30 seconds after now, they will likely already be discussing or entering another destination. Earlier options such as Sugar Factory were already known to the group, so a card would add little.",
     "risiko": "",
     "konfidenz": null,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Find open nearby attractions",
       "verworfen_weil": "The group can search or reroute in the Uber app faster than the card latency."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Reroute to Sugar Factory",
       "verworfen_weil": "They already know this option, and its current hours or availability are not confirmed."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [],
     "verdict": "silent",
     "karte": false,
     "grund": "The need is urgent but likely to be resolved by the group before a card becomes visible."
    },
    "moonshotai/kimi-k3": {
     "lat": 34.2,
     "visible_at": 2619.2,
     "cost": 0.0785709,
     "raw": "{\n \"beobachtung\": \"[0:42:40] Speaker 1: What a day. Color Factory's closed. What? — [0:42:44] Unknown: No. Come on, bro.\",\n \"vorhersage\": \"The group is in an Uber roughly four minutes from the Color Factory and just learned it is closed, so they must agree on a new destination and reroute the driver within the next 2-4 minutes.\",\n \"reasoning\": \"The destination they rerouted to at 0:32:57 just fell through, and at 0:42:27 they said the Uber has about four minutes left, so the decision window is short but not instant. Their earlier debate (0:19-0:23) shows destination decisions drag on for minutes with this group, so the need will still exist when the card appears in 10-30 seconds. The pre-filter signal 'aufbruch' fits: this is effectively a forced new departure. Earlier in the stream they named concrete alternatives (Sugar Factory, Beat the Bomb) and committed to heading to Oct after this stop, so the options come from their own plans, not invention. Waiting longer would make the card useless because the Uber will have arrived.\",\n \"alternativen\": [{\"karte\": \"Reminder: meet up with Oct after this stop\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"Oct is the later plan with no fixed time; the urgent problem is the closed destination right now.\"}, {\"karte\": \"Call the Color Factory to confirm hours\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"They appear to have just checked hours themselves; a call is a sub-30-second action they can do without a card.\"}],\n \"karte\": true,\n \"kategorie\": \"place\",\n \"titel\": \"Color Factory closed — reroute\",\n \"zeile\": \"Uber arrives in minutes — pick a new destination now.\",\n \"aktion\": \"Tapping an option opens it in Maps and sets it as the new Uber destination.\",\n \"optionen\": [\"Sugar Factory\", \"Beat the Bomb\", \"Head straight to Oct\"],\n \"haltbar_s\": 240,\n \"konfidenz\": 0.72,\n \"risiko\": \"Wrong if they already agreed on a new stop in the last seconds, or if the closure info turns out to be mistaken and they continue to the Color Factory.\",\n \"grund\": \"Their destination just fell through minutes before arrival, so a fast reroute choice is exactly what they need right now.\"\n}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "[0:42:40] Speaker 1: What a day. Color Factory's closed. What? — [0:42:44] Unknown: No. Come on, bro.",
     "vorhersage": "The group is in an Uber roughly four minutes from the Color Factory and just learned it is closed, so they must agree on a new destination and reroute the driver within the next 2-4 minutes.",
     "reasoning": "The destination they rerouted to at 0:32:57 just fell through, and at 0:42:27 they said the Uber has about four minutes left, so the decision window is short but not instant. Their earlier debate (0:19-0:23) shows destination decisions drag on for minutes with this group, so the need will still exist when the card appears in 10-30 seconds. The pre-filter signal 'aufbruch' fits: this is effectively a forced new departure. Earlier in the stream they named concrete alternatives (Sugar Factory, Beat the Bomb) and committed to heading to Oct after this stop, so the options come from their own plans, not invention. Waiting longer would make the card useless because the Uber will have arrived.",
     "risiko": "Wrong if they already agreed on a new stop in the last seconds, or if the closure info turns out to be mistaken and they continue to the Color Factory.",
     "konfidenz": 0.72,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Reminder: meet up with Oct after this stop",
       "verworfen_weil": "Oct is the later plan with no fixed time; the urgent problem is the closed destination right now."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Call the Color Factory to confirm hours",
       "verworfen_weil": "They appear to have just checked hours themselves; a call is a sub-30-second action they can do without a card."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [
      "Sugar Factory",
      "Beat the Bomb",
      "Head straight to Oct"
     ],
     "karte": true,
     "kategorie": "place",
     "titel": "Color Factory closed — reroute",
     "zeile": "Uber arrives in minutes — pick a new destination now.",
     "aktion": "Tapping an option opens it in Maps and sets it as the new Uber destination.",
     "haltbar_s": 240,
     "grund": "Their destination just fell through minutes before arrival, so a fast reroute choice is exactly what they need right now.",
     "verdict": "hit",
     "need": "place",
     "need_start": 2560
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "t": 2640,
   "signal": "aufbruch",
   "conf": 0.65,
   "seen_until": 2625,
   "models": {
    "deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash": {
     "lat": 3.3,
     "visible_at": 2648.3,
     "cost": 0.00272055,
     "raw": "{\n  \"beobachtung\": \"At [0:42:40] 'Color Factory's closed. What?' and [0:42:59] Marlon: 'So we have to extend the Uber.' — the group's destination just fell through mid-ride.\",\n  \"vorhersage\": \"The group will need a new destination and likely an Uber re-route within the next few minutes; the need persists until they pick a place and the driver changes course.\",\n  \"reasoning\": \"The Color Factory being closed kills the current plan while they are still in the Uber with only ~4 minutes left in the ride, so a decision is imminent and lasts well past the card latency. Earlier in the stream they already floated Sugar Factory, Beat the Bomb, Balloon Museum, and Wax Museum as alternatives, so a card listing those options is directly actionable. The pre-filter 'aufbruch' matches the departure/re-route moment. A card now beats waiting because the Uber will arrive before they've decided.\",\n  \"alternativen\": [\n    {\"karte\": \"Note the Sex Museum manager callback\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"That is already being handled by Jason via email/text; no action needed from me.\"},\n    {\"karte\": \"Book Beat the Bomb\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"They haven't committed to it; too early to book before they choose.\"}\n  ],\n  \"karte\": true,\n  \"kategorie\": \"place\",\n  \"titel\": \"Color Factory closed, pick new spot\",\n  \"zeile\": \"Reroute Uber: Sugar Factory, Beat the Bomb, Balloon Museum, Wax Museum?\",\n  \"aktion\": \"Opens a short list of nearby alternative attractions with map links to pick one and reroute the Uber.\",\n  \"optionen\": [\"Sugar Factory\", \"Beat the Bomb\", \"Wax Museum\"],\n  \"haltbar_s\": 300,\n  \"konfidenz\": 0.72,\n  \"risiko\": \"If they've already decided on a spot in the last few seconds, or if the driver refuses to reroute again, the card is noise.\",\n  \"grund\": \"Their planned destination just closed mid-Uber, so they need a quick alternative to reroute to.\"\n}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "At [0:42:40] 'Color Factory's closed. What?' and [0:42:59] Marlon: 'So we have to extend the Uber.' — the group's destination just fell through mid-ride.",
     "vorhersage": "The group will need a new destination and likely an Uber re-route within the next few minutes; the need persists until they pick a place and the driver changes course.",
     "reasoning": "The Color Factory being closed kills the current plan while they are still in the Uber with only ~4 minutes left in the ride, so a decision is imminent and lasts well past the card latency. Earlier in the stream they already floated Sugar Factory, Beat the Bomb, Balloon Museum, and Wax Museum as alternatives, so a card listing those options is directly actionable. The pre-filter 'aufbruch' matches the departure/re-route moment. A card now beats waiting because the Uber will arrive before they've decided.",
     "risiko": "If they've already decided on a spot in the last few seconds, or if the driver refuses to reroute again, the card is noise.",
     "konfidenz": 0.72,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Note the Sex Museum manager callback",
       "verworfen_weil": "That is already being handled by Jason via email/text; no action needed from me."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Book Beat the Bomb",
       "verworfen_weil": "They haven't committed to it; too early to book before they choose."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [
      "Sugar Factory",
      "Beat the Bomb",
      "Wax Museum"
     ],
     "karte": true,
     "kategorie": "place",
     "titel": "Color Factory closed, pick new spot",
     "zeile": "Reroute Uber: Sugar Factory, Beat the Bomb, Balloon Museum, Wax Museum?",
     "aktion": "Opens a short list of nearby alternative attractions with map links to pick one and reroute the Uber.",
     "haltbar_s": 300,
     "grund": "Their planned destination just closed mid-Uber, so they need a quick alternative to reroute to.",
     "verdict": "hit",
     "need": "place",
     "need_start": 2560
    },
    "z-ai/glm-5.3-flash": {
     "lat": 21.7,
     "visible_at": 2666.7,
     "cost": 0.00279555,
     "raw": "{\n \"beobachtung\": \"[0:32:37] Speaker 4: \\\"Oh wait, Oct asked what time we're coming by the way\\\" — [0:32:57] Marlon: \\\"Okay, let's head after this then.\\\" The reply to Oct never happened; the group is now in the Uber ([0:42:27] \\\"we got around four more minutes\\\") heading to Sugar Factory.\",\n \"vorhersage\": \"In 10-30 seconds the group will still be in the Uber or just arriving at Sugar Factory. Oct is waiting for a time estimate, and nobody has answered him. The need persists until someone texts Oct or they arrive at Oct's spot later today.\",\n \"reasoning\": \"The question from Oct was asked over ten minutes ago and Marlon deferred it ('let's head after this then'), but no one actually responded. The aufbruch signal fits: they are mid-transit with a clear next stop, which is exactly when an unanswered 'what time are you coming' needs an ETA. The latency is fine because the need isn't going anywhere — it's a pending message, not a fleeting moment. The Color Factory closure talk was a joke and resolved itself, so the itinerary is stable enough to give Oct a rough time.\",\n \"alternativen\": [{\"karte\": \"Check if Sugar Factory is open\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"They are already en route and the 'closed' claim was an admitted lie ([0:43:07]); checking now adds nothing.\"}, {\"karte\": \"Book Beat the Bomb tickets\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"Only floated as an idea at [0:19:53], never agreed on as the plan; premature.\"}, {\"karte\": \"Reroute Uber to Color Factory\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"The reroute discussion was banter and the driver joke settled it; no active need.\"}],\n \"karte\": true,\n \"kategorie\": \"followup\",\n \"titel\": \"Reply to Oct: ETA\",\n \"zeile\": \"Oct asked what time you're coming by\",\n \"aktion\": \"Opens message thread with Oct to send an ETA\",\n \"optionen\": [\"Send ETA after Sugar Factory\", \"Send current location\", \"Open chat draft\"],\n \"haltbar_s\": 5400,\n \"konfidenz\": 0.62,\n \"risiko\": \"Annoying if someone already texted Oct off-camera or if Oct's visit was dropped entirely; also wrong if the group decides to skip Oct.\",\n \"grund\": \"Oct's unanswered 'what time are you coming by' is a pending commitment Marlon explicitly deferred, and mid-ride is the natural moment to send an ETA.\"\n}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "[0:32:37] Speaker 4: \"Oh wait, Oct asked what time we're coming by the way\" — [0:32:57] Marlon: \"Okay, let's head after this then.\" The reply to Oct never happened; the group is now in the Uber ([0:42:27] \"we got around four more minutes\") heading to Sugar Factory.",
     "vorhersage": "In 10-30 seconds the group will still be in the Uber or just arriving at Sugar Factory. Oct is waiting for a time estimate, and nobody has answered him. The need persists until someone texts Oct or they arrive at Oct's spot later today.",
     "reasoning": "The question from Oct was asked over ten minutes ago and Marlon deferred it ('let's head after this then'), but no one actually responded. The aufbruch signal fits: they are mid-transit with a clear next stop, which is exactly when an unanswered 'what time are you coming' needs an ETA. The latency is fine because the need isn't going anywhere — it's a pending message, not a fleeting moment. The Color Factory closure talk was a joke and resolved itself, so the itinerary is stable enough to give Oct a rough time.",
     "risiko": "Annoying if someone already texted Oct off-camera or if Oct's visit was dropped entirely; also wrong if the group decides to skip Oct.",
     "konfidenz": 0.62,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Check if Sugar Factory is open",
       "verworfen_weil": "They are already en route and the 'closed' claim was an admitted lie ([0:43:07]); checking now adds nothing."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Book Beat the Bomb tickets",
       "verworfen_weil": "Only floated as an idea at [0:19:53], never agreed on as the plan; premature."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Reroute Uber to Color Factory",
       "verworfen_weil": "The reroute discussion was banter and the driver joke settled it; no active need."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [
      "Send ETA after Sugar Factory",
      "Send current location",
      "Open chat draft"
     ],
     "karte": true,
     "kategorie": "followup",
     "titel": "Reply to Oct: ETA",
     "zeile": "Oct asked what time you're coming by",
     "aktion": "Opens message thread with Oct to send an ETA",
     "haltbar_s": 5400,
     "grund": "Oct's unanswered 'what time are you coming by' is a pending commitment Marlon explicitly deferred, and mid-ride is the natural moment to send an ETA.",
     "verdict": "hit",
     "need": "followup",
     "need_start": 1957
    },
    "openai/gpt-5.6-luna": {
     "lat": 8.0,
     "visible_at": 2653.0,
     "cost": 0.00503465,
     "raw": "{\n  \"beobachtung\": \"At 42:40, someone says, \\\"Color Factory's closed,\\\" followed by Marlon at 42:59: \\\"So we have to extend the Uber.\\\"\",\n  \"vorhersage\": \"Within 10–30 seconds, they will need to confirm an open destination or decide whether to extend the ride; this may remain relevant for several minutes.\",\n  \"reasoning\": \"The group has repeatedly changed plans between the Sugar Factory, Color Factory, and other attractions, and the current destination may be unavailable. The uncertainty matters now because they are already in an Uber and may soon need to extend or reroute it. The latency should still leave time to choose before the ride ends or reaches the disputed destination. Earlier, they explicitly agreed to go to the Color Factory after first aiming for the Sugar Factory.\",\n  \"alternativen\": [\n    {\n      \"karte\": \"Verify Color Factory hours\",\n      \"verworfen_weil\": \"A simple status result may not solve the broader need to choose the next destination.\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"karte\": \"Find nearby food\",\n      \"verworfen_weil\": \"Food was discussed, but the immediate unresolved issue is the ride destination.\"\n    }\n  ],\n  \"karte\": true,\n  \"kategorie\": \"transport\",\n  \"titel\": \"Confirm Next Stop\",\n  \"zeile\": \"Choose an open destination before extending the Uber.\",\n  \"aktion\": \"Open the destination chooser with current route options.\",\n  \"optionen\": [\n    \"Keep Color Factory\",\n    \"Return to Sugar Factory\",\n    \"Find open nearby place\"\n  ],\n  \"haltbar_s\": 240,\n  \"konfidenz\": 0.82,\n  \"risiko\": \"Annoying or wrong if the Color Factory status was a joke and they have already settled on another destination.\",\n  \"grund\": \"The group is in transit with an unresolved destination and may need to extend or reroute the Uber imminently.\"\n}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "At 42:40, someone says, \"Color Factory's closed,\" followed by Marlon at 42:59: \"So we have to extend the Uber.\"",
     "vorhersage": "Within 10–30 seconds, they will need to confirm an open destination or decide whether to extend the ride; this may remain relevant for several minutes.",
     "reasoning": "The group has repeatedly changed plans between the Sugar Factory, Color Factory, and other attractions, and the current destination may be unavailable. The uncertainty matters now because they are already in an Uber and may soon need to extend or reroute it. The latency should still leave time to choose before the ride ends or reaches the disputed destination. Earlier, they explicitly agreed to go to the Color Factory after first aiming for the Sugar Factory.",
     "risiko": "Annoying or wrong if the Color Factory status was a joke and they have already settled on another destination.",
     "konfidenz": 0.82,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Verify Color Factory hours",
       "verworfen_weil": "A simple status result may not solve the broader need to choose the next destination."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Find nearby food",
       "verworfen_weil": "Food was discussed, but the immediate unresolved issue is the ride destination."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [
      "Keep Color Factory",
      "Return to Sugar Factory",
      "Find open nearby place"
     ],
     "karte": true,
     "kategorie": "transport",
     "titel": "Confirm Next Stop",
     "zeile": "Choose an open destination before extending the Uber.",
     "aktion": "Open the destination chooser with current route options.",
     "haltbar_s": 240,
     "grund": "The group is in transit with an unresolved destination and may need to extend or reroute the Uber imminently.",
     "verdict": "late",
     "late_by": 1230,
     "need": "transport",
     "need_start": 1323
    },
    "google/gemini-3.8-flash": {
     "lat": 6.9,
     "visible_at": 2651.9,
     "cost": 0.0157125,
     "raw": "{\"beobachtung\": \"At 42:40 Speaker 1 mentions chat saying Color Factory might be closed, but Marlon dismisses it ('It's open, bro') and they immediately continue banter with the driver about boxing.\", \"reasoning\": \"The group is still mid-ride in the Uber bantering with the driver about Dagestan and boxing. No concrete decision has been made to check hours or change destination, and Marlon brushed off chat's warning. Pushing opening hours or alternative destinations right now would be intrusive while they are engaged in an active content bit with the driver.\", \"alternativen\": [{\"karte\": \"Color Factory NYC opening hours and ticket info\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"Marlon immediately dismissed chat's claim ('It's open, bro') and returned to the boxing conversation; no active inquiry was made.\"}], \"karte\": false, \"grund\": \"The group is fully engaged in conversation with the Uber driver and dismissed the closure comment without asking for verification.\"}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "At 42:40 Speaker 1 mentions chat saying Color Factory might be closed, but Marlon dismisses it ('It's open, bro') and they immediately continue banter with the driver about boxing.",
     "vorhersage": "",
     "reasoning": "The group is still mid-ride in the Uber bantering with the driver about Dagestan and boxing. No concrete decision has been made to check hours or change destination, and Marlon brushed off chat's warning. Pushing opening hours or alternative destinations right now would be intrusive while they are engaged in an active content bit with the driver.",
     "risiko": "",
     "konfidenz": null,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Color Factory NYC opening hours and ticket info",
       "verworfen_weil": "Marlon immediately dismissed chat's claim ('It's open, bro') and returned to the boxing conversation; no active inquiry was made."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [],
     "verdict": "silent",
     "karte": false,
     "grund": "The group is fully engaged in conversation with the Uber driver and dismissed the closure comment without asking for verification."
    },
    "openai/gpt-5.6-sol": {
     "lat": 13.3,
     "visible_at": 2658.3,
     "cost": 0.0475485,
     "raw": "{\"beobachtung\":\"[0:42:40] Speaker 1: “Color Factory's closed.” [0:43:04] Marlon: “It's open, bro.”\",\"vorhersage\":\"They will need to confirm the venue’s status before arriving or rerouting, for roughly the next three minutes.\",\"reasoning\":\"They are already en route and received conflicting information about whether Color Factory is open. A card now can prevent arriving at a closed venue or unnecessarily extending the Uber. With the 10–30 second latency, they should still be a few minutes from arrival when it appears. Earlier, they repeatedly changed destinations and had not verified this venue before rerouting.\",\"alternativen\":[{\"karte\":\"Plan the visit to Oct\",\"verworfen_weil\":\"That visit is only planned for after Color Factory and has no stated time yet.\"},{\"karte\":\"Suggest another attraction\",\"verworfen_weil\":\"They only need an alternative if Color Factory is confirmed closed.\"}],\"karte\":true,\"kategorie\":\"place\",\"titel\":\"Confirm Color Factory Status\",\"zeile\":\"Conflicting reports—check official hours before arrival.\",\"aktion\":\"Opens the official venue listing with current hours, directions, and calling options.\",\"optionen\":[\"Open official listing\",\"Call venue\",\"Find nearby alternative\"],\"haltbar_s\":180,\"konfidenz\":0.86,\"risiko\":\"Annoying if someone already verified the venue is open or the closure claim was only a joke.\",\"grund\":\"Verifying the destination now could avoid a wasted arrival and another rushed Uber reroute.\"}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "[0:42:40] Speaker 1: “Color Factory's closed.” [0:43:04] Marlon: “It's open, bro.”",
     "vorhersage": "They will need to confirm the venue’s status before arriving or rerouting, for roughly the next three minutes.",
     "reasoning": "They are already en route and received conflicting information about whether Color Factory is open. A card now can prevent arriving at a closed venue or unnecessarily extending the Uber. With the 10–30 second latency, they should still be a few minutes from arrival when it appears. Earlier, they repeatedly changed destinations and had not verified this venue before rerouting.",
     "risiko": "Annoying if someone already verified the venue is open or the closure claim was only a joke.",
     "konfidenz": 0.86,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Plan the visit to Oct",
       "verworfen_weil": "That visit is only planned for after Color Factory and has no stated time yet."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Suggest another attraction",
       "verworfen_weil": "They only need an alternative if Color Factory is confirmed closed."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [
      "Open official listing",
      "Call venue",
      "Find nearby alternative"
     ],
     "karte": true,
     "kategorie": "place",
     "titel": "Confirm Color Factory Status",
     "zeile": "Conflicting reports—check official hours before arrival.",
     "aktion": "Opens the official venue listing with current hours, directions, and calling options.",
     "haltbar_s": 180,
     "grund": "Verifying the destination now could avoid a wasted arrival and another rushed Uber reroute.",
     "verdict": "hit",
     "need": "place",
     "need_start": 2560
    },
    "moonshotai/kimi-k3": {
     "lat": 86.4,
     "visible_at": 2731.4,
     "cost": 0.1047189,
     "raw": "{\n \"beobachtung\": \"[0:32:37] Speaker 4: 'Oct asked what time we're coming by the way' — [0:32:53] 'They all texted the group chat... can we have Oct today' — [0:32:57] Marlon: 'Okay, let's head after this then.'\",\n \"vorhersage\": \"When the card appears (~44:10-44:30) they are still in the Uber, arriving at the Color Factory around 46:30. Oct's question about their ETA has been unanswered for 11+ minutes and stays open until someone replies; since Oct is the confirmed next stop, the need persists for at least another 30-60 minutes.\",\n \"reasoning\": \"The group confirmed on stream they would go to Oct after the Color Factory, but nobody ever answered Oct's 'what time are you coming' message. The card lands while they are still in the car with ~2 minutes to arrival — the last calm window before the next activity swallows attention. Replying to a text takes under 30 seconds, but it has gone undone for 11 minutes amid the chaos, so reducing it to one tap is genuinely useful. Earlier in the stream plans kept collapsing (Sex Museum rejection, Sugar Factory reroute, closed-factory troll), so a waiting host expecting an ETA is exactly the kind of loose end that gets forgotten. Waiting longer risks them entering the Color Factory and the reply slipping entirely.\",\n \"alternativen\": [\n  {\"karte\": \"Color Factory open status / tickets\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"The 'Color Factory's closed' claim at 42:40 was admitted to be a lie ('I just lied'), and they arrive in ~4 minutes — checking hours is a sub-30-second glance on arrival.\"},\n  {\"karte\": \"Book Uber from Color Factory to Oct\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"Their departure time from the Color Factory is unknown; booking now is premature and the actual 'aufbruch' moment is 30+ minutes away.\"}\n ],\n \"karte\": true,\n \"kategorie\": \"followup\",\n \"titel\": \"Oct asked for your ETA\",\n \"zeile\": \"You're heading to Oct after the Color Factory — send a quick ETA reply.\",\n \"aktion\": \"Opens the group chat with a draft reply: 'Heading over after the Color Factory, around [time].'\",\n \"optionen\": [\"Open draft reply\", \"Remind me in 30 min\", \"Dismiss\"],\n \"haltbar_s\": 1800,\n \"konfidenz\": 0.7,\n \"risiko\": \"Wrong or annoying if Marlon already replied to Oct off-mic, or if the Oct plan quietly fell through; mildly distracting during the conversation with the driver.\",\n \"grund\": \"Oct's ETA question has sat unanswered for 11+ minutes and the Uber arrival at the Color Factory is the last easy moment to reply before the next stop.\"\n}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "[0:32:37] Speaker 4: 'Oct asked what time we're coming by the way' — [0:32:53] 'They all texted the group chat... can we have Oct today' — [0:32:57] Marlon: 'Okay, let's head after this then.'",
     "vorhersage": "When the card appears (~44:10-44:30) they are still in the Uber, arriving at the Color Factory around 46:30. Oct's question about their ETA has been unanswered for 11+ minutes and stays open until someone replies; since Oct is the confirmed next stop, the need persists for at least another 30-60 minutes.",
     "reasoning": "The group confirmed on stream they would go to Oct after the Color Factory, but nobody ever answered Oct's 'what time are you coming' message. The card lands while they are still in the car with ~2 minutes to arrival — the last calm window before the next activity swallows attention. Replying to a text takes under 30 seconds, but it has gone undone for 11 minutes amid the chaos, so reducing it to one tap is genuinely useful. Earlier in the stream plans kept collapsing (Sex Museum rejection, Sugar Factory reroute, closed-factory troll), so a waiting host expecting an ETA is exactly the kind of loose end that gets forgotten. Waiting longer risks them entering the Color Factory and the reply slipping entirely.",
     "risiko": "Wrong or annoying if Marlon already replied to Oct off-mic, or if the Oct plan quietly fell through; mildly distracting during the conversation with the driver.",
     "konfidenz": 0.7,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Color Factory open status / tickets",
       "verworfen_weil": "The 'Color Factory's closed' claim at 42:40 was admitted to be a lie ('I just lied'), and they arrive in ~4 minutes — checking hours is a sub-30-second glance on arrival."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Book Uber from Color Factory to Oct",
       "verworfen_weil": "Their departure time from the Color Factory is unknown; booking now is premature and the actual 'aufbruch' moment is 30+ minutes away."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [
      "Open draft reply",
      "Remind me in 30 min",
      "Dismiss"
     ],
     "karte": true,
     "kategorie": "followup",
     "titel": "Oct asked for your ETA",
     "zeile": "You're heading to Oct after the Color Factory — send a quick ETA reply.",
     "aktion": "Opens the group chat with a draft reply: 'Heading over after the Color Factory, around [time].'",
     "haltbar_s": 1800,
     "grund": "Oct's ETA question has sat unanswered for 11+ minutes and the Uber arrival at the Color Factory is the last easy moment to reply before the next stop.",
     "verdict": "hit",
     "need": "followup",
     "need_start": 1957
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "t": 2730,
   "signal": "aufbruch",
   "conf": 0.78,
   "seen_until": 2715,
   "models": {
    "deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash": {
     "lat": 7.3,
     "visible_at": 2742.3,
     "cost": 0.00421123761,
     "raw": "{\n  \"beobachtung\": \"[0:42:40] Speaker 1: \\\"Color Factory's closed. What?\\\" and [0:45:03] Speaker 1: \\\"just went to Google, it says Color Factory is closed. Did he call? We called, we called.\\\"\",\n  \"vorhersage\": \"The group is in an Uber with ~4 minutes left to the Color Factory, which is closed. They will need a new destination and a reroute within the next few minutes, and the need will persist until they pick a place and change the Uber destination.\",\n  \"reasoning\": \"The pre-filter 'aufbruch' fired, and the transcript confirms a real, unresolved problem: their chosen destination is closed and they are actively debating alternatives (Sugar Factory, Beat the Bomb, Balloon Museum, Wax Museum, Oct). This is not a sub-30-second task; they have been going back and forth for several minutes and the Uber is still moving. The latency of 10-30 seconds is fine because the need will still exist when the card appears. Earlier in the stream they already discussed Sugar Factory and Color Factory as options, so a card consolidating the open options is timely and useful.\",\n  \"alternativen\": [\n    {\"karte\": \"Book Uber Black / extend ride\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"They are already in an Uber and the driver is present; rerouting is a tap in the app, not a card-worthy need.\"},\n    {\"karte\": \"Note the Sex Museum manager follow-up\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"Jay is already handling it via email/text and it is a later follow-up, not an immediate need.\"},\n    {\"karte\": \"Find protein smoothie spot\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"They already got smoothies and paid; need is finished.\"}\n  ],\n  \"karte\": true,\n  \"kategorie\": \"place\",\n  \"titel\": \"Color Factory closed — pick new spot\",\n  \"zeile\": \"Reroute Uber: Sugar Factory, Beat the Bomb, Balloon Museum, or Oct?\",\n  \"aktion\": \"Opens a short list of the discussed alternatives with one-tap Uber reroute\",\n  \"optionen\": [\"Reroute to Sugar Factory\", \"Reroute to Beat the Bomb\", \"Reroute to Oct\"],\n  \"haltbar_s\": 300,\n  \"konfidenz\": 0.82,\n  \"risiko\": \"Annoying if they already decided on a destination in the last 30 seconds or if the driver has already rerouted without the card being seen.\",\n  \"grund\": \"Their planned destination is confirmed closed and they are actively choosing a new one while still in the Uber.\"\n}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "[0:42:40] Speaker 1: \"Color Factory's closed. What?\" and [0:45:03] Speaker 1: \"just went to Google, it says Color Factory is closed. Did he call? We called, we called.\"",
     "vorhersage": "The group is in an Uber with ~4 minutes left to the Color Factory, which is closed. They will need a new destination and a reroute within the next few minutes, and the need will persist until they pick a place and change the Uber destination.",
     "reasoning": "The pre-filter 'aufbruch' fired, and the transcript confirms a real, unresolved problem: their chosen destination is closed and they are actively debating alternatives (Sugar Factory, Beat the Bomb, Balloon Museum, Wax Museum, Oct). This is not a sub-30-second task; they have been going back and forth for several minutes and the Uber is still moving. The latency of 10-30 seconds is fine because the need will still exist when the card appears. Earlier in the stream they already discussed Sugar Factory and Color Factory as options, so a card consolidating the open options is timely and useful.",
     "risiko": "Annoying if they already decided on a destination in the last 30 seconds or if the driver has already rerouted without the card being seen.",
     "konfidenz": 0.82,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Book Uber Black / extend ride",
       "verworfen_weil": "They are already in an Uber and the driver is present; rerouting is a tap in the app, not a card-worthy need."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Note the Sex Museum manager follow-up",
       "verworfen_weil": "Jay is already handling it via email/text and it is a later follow-up, not an immediate need."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Find protein smoothie spot",
       "verworfen_weil": "They already got smoothies and paid; need is finished."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [
      "Reroute to Sugar Factory",
      "Reroute to Beat the Bomb",
      "Reroute to Oct"
     ],
     "karte": true,
     "kategorie": "place",
     "titel": "Color Factory closed — pick new spot",
     "zeile": "Reroute Uber: Sugar Factory, Beat the Bomb, Balloon Museum, or Oct?",
     "aktion": "Opens a short list of the discussed alternatives with one-tap Uber reroute",
     "haltbar_s": 300,
     "grund": "Their planned destination is confirmed closed and they are actively choosing a new one while still in the Uber.",
     "verdict": "hit",
     "need": "place",
     "need_start": 2560
    },
    "z-ai/glm-5.3-flash": {
     "lat": 12.5,
     "visible_at": 2747.5,
     "cost": 0.00201678,
     "raw": "{\n \"beobachtung\": \"[0:45:03] Speaker 1: \\\"just went to Google, it says Color Factory is closed\\\"; [0:45:13] \\\"I mean maybe we should change. Yeah, I don't mind.\\\"\",\n \"vorhersage\": \"The group is in the Uber with a dead destination and will need a new place to go within the next minute or two; the driver is already asking where to reroute.\",\n \"reasoning\": \"The Color Factory just fell through and the driver explicitly asked if they're changing location, so a decision is imminent right when the card appears. Earlier in the stream they floated Beat the Bomb, Sugar Factory, the Wax Museum and the Balloon Museum, so surfacing those options now is timely. Waiting longer means they pick something mid-chaos or default to Sugar Factory without checking. The need lasts until they lock a new destination, likely a few minutes.\",\n \"alternativen\": [{\"karte\": \"Check Sugar Factory hours\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"They already committed to Sugar Factory as fallback earlier and it was their original plan; less urgent than replacing the closed stop.\"}, {\"karte\": \"Message Jet about Times Square meetup\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"Jet meetup was already loosely agreed and is a later-plan item, not blocking right now.\"}],\n \"karte\": true,\n \"kategorie\": \"place\",\n \"titel\": \"Color Factory closed — pick next\",\n \"zeile\": \"Where to now? Options from earlier:\",\n \"aktion\": \"Opens a map search for the tapped option with hours and route\",\n \"optionen\": [\"Beat the Bomb\", \"Balloon Museum\", \"Wax Museum\"],\n \"haltbar_s\": 240,\n \"konfidenz\": 0.72,\n \"risiko\": \"If they already settled on Sugar Factory or the driver reroutes before the card shows, it's redundant noise during an already chaotic moment.\",\n \"grund\": \"Their planned stop just closed and the driver is waiting for a reroute decision, so a quick options card helps them choose before they drift into the next crowd scene.\"\n}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "[0:45:03] Speaker 1: \"just went to Google, it says Color Factory is closed\"; [0:45:13] \"I mean maybe we should change. Yeah, I don't mind.\"",
     "vorhersage": "The group is in the Uber with a dead destination and will need a new place to go within the next minute or two; the driver is already asking where to reroute.",
     "reasoning": "The Color Factory just fell through and the driver explicitly asked if they're changing location, so a decision is imminent right when the card appears. Earlier in the stream they floated Beat the Bomb, Sugar Factory, the Wax Museum and the Balloon Museum, so surfacing those options now is timely. Waiting longer means they pick something mid-chaos or default to Sugar Factory without checking. The need lasts until they lock a new destination, likely a few minutes.",
     "risiko": "If they already settled on Sugar Factory or the driver reroutes before the card shows, it's redundant noise during an already chaotic moment.",
     "konfidenz": 0.72,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Check Sugar Factory hours",
       "verworfen_weil": "They already committed to Sugar Factory as fallback earlier and it was their original plan; less urgent than replacing the closed stop."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Message Jet about Times Square meetup",
       "verworfen_weil": "Jet meetup was already loosely agreed and is a later-plan item, not blocking right now."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [
      "Beat the Bomb",
      "Balloon Museum",
      "Wax Museum"
     ],
     "karte": true,
     "kategorie": "place",
     "titel": "Color Factory closed — pick next",
     "zeile": "Where to now? Options from earlier:",
     "aktion": "Opens a map search for the tapped option with hours and route",
     "haltbar_s": 240,
     "grund": "Their planned stop just closed and the driver is waiting for a reroute decision, so a quick options card helps them choose before they drift into the next crowd scene.",
     "verdict": "hit",
     "need": "place",
     "need_start": 2560
    },
    "openai/gpt-5.6-luna": {
     "lat": 9.9,
     "visible_at": 2744.9,
     "cost": 0.0051608,
     "raw": "{\n  \"beobachtung\": \"\\\"Color Factory is closed... maybe we should change.\\\" [45:03-45:13]\",\n  \"vorhersage\": \"They will need to choose and reroute to a backup destination within the next minute, and the decision may remain relevant until arrival.\",\n  \"reasoning\": \"The planned Color Factory stop is now reportedly closed, and the driver explicitly asks whether they are changing location. This need will outlast the card's 10–30 second latency because they are still in the Uber and must select a destination. Earlier they repeatedly discussed Sugar Factory, Wax Museum, and Beat the Bomb, so these are grounded alternatives rather than invented suggestions. The card should reduce decision time without asserting that any alternative is currently open.\",\n  \"alternativen\": [\n    {\n      \"karte\": \"Check Color Factory status\",\n      \"verworfen_weil\": \"They already checked online and called, while the ride requires an immediate backup decision.\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"karte\": \"Extend the Uber\",\n      \"verworfen_weil\": \"The immediate unresolved need is choosing where to go, not merely extending the ride.\"\n    }\n  ],\n  \"karte\": true,\n  \"kategorie\": \"transport\",\n  \"titel\": \"Choose backup destination\",\n  \"zeile\": \"Color Factory may be closed; pick the next stop and reroute.\",\n  \"aktion\": \"Reroute the Uber to the selected destination.\",\n  \"optionen\": [\n    \"Sugar Factory\",\n    \"Wax Museum\",\n    \"Beat the Bomb\"\n  ],\n  \"haltbar_s\": 120,\n  \"konfidenz\": 0.93,\n  \"risiko\": \"Annoying or wrong if Color Factory reopens, the group has already chosen another stop, or a selected venue is closed.\",\n  \"grund\": \"The current destination is uncertain and the group needs an immediate, actionable replacement while still in transit.\"\n}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "\"Color Factory is closed... maybe we should change.\" [45:03-45:13]",
     "vorhersage": "They will need to choose and reroute to a backup destination within the next minute, and the decision may remain relevant until arrival.",
     "reasoning": "The planned Color Factory stop is now reportedly closed, and the driver explicitly asks whether they are changing location. This need will outlast the card's 10–30 second latency because they are still in the Uber and must select a destination. Earlier they repeatedly discussed Sugar Factory, Wax Museum, and Beat the Bomb, so these are grounded alternatives rather than invented suggestions. The card should reduce decision time without asserting that any alternative is currently open.",
     "risiko": "Annoying or wrong if Color Factory reopens, the group has already chosen another stop, or a selected venue is closed.",
     "konfidenz": 0.93,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Check Color Factory status",
       "verworfen_weil": "They already checked online and called, while the ride requires an immediate backup decision."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Extend the Uber",
       "verworfen_weil": "The immediate unresolved need is choosing where to go, not merely extending the ride."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [
      "Sugar Factory",
      "Wax Museum",
      "Beat the Bomb"
     ],
     "karte": true,
     "kategorie": "transport",
     "titel": "Choose backup destination",
     "zeile": "Color Factory may be closed; pick the next stop and reroute.",
     "aktion": "Reroute the Uber to the selected destination.",
     "haltbar_s": 120,
     "grund": "The current destination is uncertain and the group needs an immediate, actionable replacement while still in transit.",
     "verdict": "late",
     "late_by": 1322,
     "need": "transport",
     "need_start": 1323
    },
    "google/gemini-3.8-flash": {
     "lat": 20.7,
     "visible_at": 2755.7,
     "cost": 0.02352225,
     "raw": "{\n \"beobachtung\": \"[0:45:03] Speaker 1: 'Not gonna lie guys, just went to Google, it says Color Factory is closed. ... Driver: You're gonna change location? Speaker 1: I have to call, yeah. I mean maybe we should change.'\",\n \"reasoning\": \"Speaker 1 booked the Uber and is already handling navigation and route changes on his own phone. The group originally set Sugar Factory as their destination before rerouting to Color Factory, so reverting to Sugar Factory or deciding verbally between their earlier ideas will happen immediately in the vehicle. By the time a card appears in 20-30 seconds, they will already be verbally agreeing on where to divert or rerouting in the app.\",\n \"alternativen\": [\n  {\n   \"karte\": \"Suggest previously mentioned backup spots (Sugar Factory, Beat The Bomb, Wax Museum)\",\n   \"verworfen_weil\": \"Speaker 1 controls the Uber booking, and the group will resolve the immediate destination change verbally within seconds without needing a prompt on Marlon's phone.\"\n  }\n ],\n \"karte\": false,\n \"grund\": \"Speaker 1 is actively managing the Uber destination on his phone and the group will settle on their backup plan verbally within seconds.\"\n}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "[0:45:03] Speaker 1: 'Not gonna lie guys, just went to Google, it says Color Factory is closed. ... Driver: You're gonna change location? Speaker 1: I have to call, yeah. I mean maybe we should change.'",
     "vorhersage": "",
     "reasoning": "Speaker 1 booked the Uber and is already handling navigation and route changes on his own phone. The group originally set Sugar Factory as their destination before rerouting to Color Factory, so reverting to Sugar Factory or deciding verbally between their earlier ideas will happen immediately in the vehicle. By the time a card appears in 20-30 seconds, they will already be verbally agreeing on where to divert or rerouting in the app.",
     "risiko": "",
     "konfidenz": null,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Suggest previously mentioned backup spots (Sugar Factory, Beat The Bomb, Wax Museum)",
       "verworfen_weil": "Speaker 1 controls the Uber booking, and the group will resolve the immediate destination change verbally within seconds without needing a prompt on Marlon's phone."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [],
     "verdict": "silent",
     "karte": false,
     "grund": "Speaker 1 is actively managing the Uber destination on his phone and the group will settle on their backup plan verbally within seconds."
    },
    "openai/gpt-5.6-sol": {
     "lat": 8.3,
     "visible_at": 2743.3,
     "cost": 0.045596,
     "raw": "{\"beobachtung\":\"[45:03] Speaker 1: “just went to Google, it says Color Factory is closed.” [45:11] Driver: “You're gonna change location?”\",\"reasoning\":\"They need an immediate replacement destination, but they are already discussing the change with the driver. Because the transcript is 15 seconds behind and a card would take another 10–30 seconds to appear, they will likely have rerouted before seeing it. Earlier they repeatedly considered Sugar Factory, Beat the Bomb, and the Wax Museum, so they already have alternatives without assistance. A card appearing after the decision would distract from confirming the new route.\",\"alternativen\":[{\"karte\":\"Choose next stop: Sugar Factory, Beat the Bomb, or Wax Museum\",\"verworfen_weil\":\"The choice is likely to be completed verbally or in the Uber app before the card appears.\"},{\"karte\":\"Check which alternatives are open\",\"verworfen_weil\":\"Useful in principle, but the driver needs an answer now and no verified live results are available in time.\"}],\"karte\":false,\"grund\":\"The reroute decision is too immediate for the card latency and will probably be resolved before display.\"}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "[45:03] Speaker 1: “just went to Google, it says Color Factory is closed.” [45:11] Driver: “You're gonna change location?”",
     "vorhersage": "",
     "reasoning": "They need an immediate replacement destination, but they are already discussing the change with the driver. Because the transcript is 15 seconds behind and a card would take another 10–30 seconds to appear, they will likely have rerouted before seeing it. Earlier they repeatedly considered Sugar Factory, Beat the Bomb, and the Wax Museum, so they already have alternatives without assistance. A card appearing after the decision would distract from confirming the new route.",
     "risiko": "",
     "konfidenz": null,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Choose next stop: Sugar Factory, Beat the Bomb, or Wax Museum",
       "verworfen_weil": "The choice is likely to be completed verbally or in the Uber app before the card appears."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Check which alternatives are open",
       "verworfen_weil": "Useful in principle, but the driver needs an answer now and no verified live results are available in time."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [],
     "verdict": "silent",
     "karte": false,
     "grund": "The reroute decision is too immediate for the card latency and will probably be resolved before display."
    },
    "moonshotai/kimi-k3": {
     "lat": 70.5,
     "visible_at": 2805.5,
     "cost": 0.07179505,
     "raw": "{\n \"beobachtung\": \"[0:45:03] Speaker 1: '...went to Google, it says Color Factory is closed... We called, we called.' [0:45:11] Driver: 'You're gonna change location?' [0:45:13] Speaker 1: 'maybe we should change.'\",\n \"vorhersage\": \"When the card appears (~45:40-46:00), the group is still in the Uber with a confirmed-closed destination and the driver awaiting a reroute answer; the pick-a-new-stop decision remains open until they settle on one place, typically 1-3 minutes for this group.\",\n \"reasoning\": \"Now works because the closure was just confirmed ('we called') and the driver explicitly asked whether to change location, so the destination decision is live and unresolved. Later could be wasted if they blurt a new stop in the gap, but this group has debated destinations all stream (Sugar Factory, Color Factory, Beat the Bomb, Wax Museum), so deliberation tends to run long. The 10-30s latency is acceptable because a destination argument like this survives well past 30 seconds, and the card offers the exact candidates they already named earlier. Confidence is decent because the closure is double-confirmed (Google + call), not just the earlier prank-ish 'I just lied' moment.\",\n \"alternativen\": [\n  {\"karte\": \"Book Beat the Bomb tickets\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"Group hasn't agreed on a destination yet; a booking card would be premature and narrow.\"},\n  {\"karte\": \"Reply ETA to 'Oct'\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"Unclear who Oct is and whether they committed to going there; ambiguous target.\"}\n ],\n \"karte\": true,\n \"kategorie\": \"transport\",\n \"titel\": \"Color Factory closed: reroute options\",\n \"zeile\": \"Driver asked about changing destination; pick a new stop now.\",\n \"aktion\": \"Tap an option to set it as the new Uber destination.\",\n \"optionen\": [\"Sugar Factory\", \"Beat the Bomb\", \"Wax Museum\"],\n \"haltbar_s\": 150,\n \"konfidenz\": 0.72,\n \"risiko\": \"Annoying or wrong if they already agreed on a new stop during the 10-30s gap, or if the closure claim was actually part of the earlier joke ('I just lied').\",\n \"grund\": \"The Uber's destination is confirmed closed and the driver is waiting on a reroute decision, making destination options a live, lasting need.\"\n}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "[0:45:03] Speaker 1: '...went to Google, it says Color Factory is closed... We called, we called.' [0:45:11] Driver: 'You're gonna change location?' [0:45:13] Speaker 1: 'maybe we should change.'",
     "vorhersage": "When the card appears (~45:40-46:00), the group is still in the Uber with a confirmed-closed destination and the driver awaiting a reroute answer; the pick-a-new-stop decision remains open until they settle on one place, typically 1-3 minutes for this group.",
     "reasoning": "Now works because the closure was just confirmed ('we called') and the driver explicitly asked whether to change location, so the destination decision is live and unresolved. Later could be wasted if they blurt a new stop in the gap, but this group has debated destinations all stream (Sugar Factory, Color Factory, Beat the Bomb, Wax Museum), so deliberation tends to run long. The 10-30s latency is acceptable because a destination argument like this survives well past 30 seconds, and the card offers the exact candidates they already named earlier. Confidence is decent because the closure is double-confirmed (Google + call), not just the earlier prank-ish 'I just lied' moment.",
     "risiko": "Annoying or wrong if they already agreed on a new stop during the 10-30s gap, or if the closure claim was actually part of the earlier joke ('I just lied').",
     "konfidenz": 0.72,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Book Beat the Bomb tickets",
       "verworfen_weil": "Group hasn't agreed on a destination yet; a booking card would be premature and narrow."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Reply ETA to 'Oct'",
       "verworfen_weil": "Unclear who Oct is and whether they committed to going there; ambiguous target."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [
      "Sugar Factory",
      "Beat the Bomb",
      "Wax Museum"
     ],
     "karte": true,
     "kategorie": "transport",
     "titel": "Color Factory closed: reroute options",
     "zeile": "Driver asked about changing destination; pick a new stop now.",
     "aktion": "Tap an option to set it as the new Uber destination.",
     "haltbar_s": 150,
     "grund": "The Uber's destination is confirmed closed and the driver is waiting on a reroute decision, making destination options a live, lasting need.",
     "verdict": "late",
     "late_by": 1382,
     "need": "transport",
     "need_start": 1323
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "t": 2790,
   "signal": "aufbruch",
   "conf": 0.88,
   "seen_until": 2775,
   "models": {
    "deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash": {
     "lat": 5.1,
     "visible_at": 2800.1,
     "cost": 0.0058146,
     "raw": "{\n  \"beobachtung\": \"[0:46:04] Marlon: \\\"It's far? He slapped on minutes there. Slapped minutes. Can we go somewhere a little closer?\\\" and [0:46:11] Speaker 1: \\\"I'm gonna just type in the word factory on the Google, maybe something will pop up.\\\"\",\n  \"vorhersage\": \"The group is in a moving Uber with a driver who is actively rerouting; they need a nearby, currently-open attraction or food destination within the next few minutes, and the need persists until a new destination is confirmed and the Uber is rerouted.\",\n  \"reasoning\": \"The pre-filter signal 'aufbruch' matches a real transition: the Color Factory is closed, Times Square was rejected as overstimulating, and Sugar Factory is still unverified. Marlon explicitly asks for something closer, and Lacy is about to search vaguely for 'factory,' which is likely to produce poor results. A card with nearby open options would be useful now, but the group is in an Uber and the driver is already rerouting, so the window is short. Earlier in the stream they repeatedly struggled to pick a destination and ended up at a closed venue, so a quick verified option could prevent another dead end.\",\n  \"alternativen\": [\n    {\n      \"karte\": \"Book Sugar Factory reservation\",\n      \"verworfen_weil\": \"They have not confirmed it is open or what it actually is, and booking before verifying could waste time.\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"karte\": \"Note idea: Dagestan training trip\",\n      \"verworfen_weil\": \"It is a joke/idea for later, not an immediate need during the Uber ride.\"\n    }\n  ],\n  \"karte\": true,\n  \"kategorie\": \"place\",\n  \"titel\": \"Nearby open options\",\n  \"zeile\": \"Find open spots near current Uber route\",\n  \"aktion\": \"Show a short list of nearby open attractions or food places along the current route\",\n  \"optionen\": [\"Open now nearby\", \"Sugar Factory status\", \"Closest food stop\"],\n  \"haltbar_s\": 120,\n  \"konfidenz\": 0.65,\n  \"risiko\": \"If the group has already decided on a destination or the driver has rerouted successfully, this card becomes redundant and annoying.\",\n  \"grund\": \"They are actively searching for a closer open place after the Color Factory turned out closed, and a quick verified option could save the segment.\"\n}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "[0:46:04] Marlon: \"It's far? He slapped on minutes there. Slapped minutes. Can we go somewhere a little closer?\" and [0:46:11] Speaker 1: \"I'm gonna just type in the word factory on the Google, maybe something will pop up.\"",
     "vorhersage": "The group is in a moving Uber with a driver who is actively rerouting; they need a nearby, currently-open attraction or food destination within the next few minutes, and the need persists until a new destination is confirmed and the Uber is rerouted.",
     "reasoning": "The pre-filter signal 'aufbruch' matches a real transition: the Color Factory is closed, Times Square was rejected as overstimulating, and Sugar Factory is still unverified. Marlon explicitly asks for something closer, and Lacy is about to search vaguely for 'factory,' which is likely to produce poor results. A card with nearby open options would be useful now, but the group is in an Uber and the driver is already rerouting, so the window is short. Earlier in the stream they repeatedly struggled to pick a destination and ended up at a closed venue, so a quick verified option could prevent another dead end.",
     "risiko": "If the group has already decided on a destination or the driver has rerouted successfully, this card becomes redundant and annoying.",
     "konfidenz": 0.65,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Book Sugar Factory reservation",
       "verworfen_weil": "They have not confirmed it is open or what it actually is, and booking before verifying could waste time."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Note idea: Dagestan training trip",
       "verworfen_weil": "It is a joke/idea for later, not an immediate need during the Uber ride."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [
      "Open now nearby",
      "Sugar Factory status",
      "Closest food stop"
     ],
     "karte": true,
     "kategorie": "place",
     "titel": "Nearby open options",
     "zeile": "Find open spots near current Uber route",
     "aktion": "Show a short list of nearby open attractions or food places along the current route",
     "haltbar_s": 120,
     "grund": "They are actively searching for a closer open place after the Color Factory turned out closed, and a quick verified option could save the segment.",
     "verdict": "hit",
     "need": "place",
     "need_start": 2560
    },
    "z-ai/glm-5.3-flash": {
     "lat": 11.2,
     "visible_at": 2806.2,
     "cost": 0.0028845,
     "raw": "{\n \"beobachtung\": \"[0:45:03] \\\"just went to Google, it says Color Factory is closed\\\"; [0:45:35] \\\"Sugar Factory still option out there?\\\"; [0:46:04] \\\"It's far? ... Can we go somewhere a little closer?\\\"; [0:46:10] \\\"I'm gonna just type in the word factory on the Google, maybe something will pop up\\\"\",\n \"vorhersage\": \"The group is in the Uber with a reroute in progress and no confirmed destination; when the card appears they will still be deciding between Sugar Factory (far), Beat the Bomb, Wax Museum or other nearby options, and will need a quick list of closer alternatives for the next several minutes.\",\n \"reasoning\": \"The Color Factory just fell through mid-ride, the driver is rerouting, and Marlon explicitly asked for something closer and is about to search 'factory' himself. The decision is unresolved at 46:15 and will still be open 10-30 seconds from now since the ride is long and nobody has committed. A card with nearby attraction options helps exactly at this decision window; once they pick a spot it becomes useless. I must not invent names, prices or addresses, so options stay generic and any detail is a placeholder.\",\n \"alternativen\": [{\"karte\": \"Check Sugar Factory hours\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"They already got burned calling a closed venue; but they haven't committed to Sugar Factory yet, and verifying one option is premature while they're still brainstorming closer spots\"}, {\"karte\": \"Book Beat the Bomb tickets\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"It was mentioned casually at [0:19:53] and never confirmed as the plan; booking now would be jumping the gun\"}, {\"karte\": \"Text Jet meeting point\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"Jet was told Times Square earlier but the destination is now in flux; a meeting point card would be wrong until they actually pick a place\"}],\n \"karte\": true,\n \"kategorie\": \"place\",\n \"titel\": \"Closer factory alternatives\",\n \"zeile\": \"Color Factory closed — find nearer spot\",\n \"aktion\": \"Opens maps search for attractions near current route\",\n \"optionen\": [\"Sugar Factory\", \"Beat the Bomb\", \"Wax Museum\"],\n \"haltbar_s\": 420,\n \"konfidenz\": 0.72,\n \"risiko\": \"Annoying if they have already settled on Sugar Factory or if Marlon's own Google search resolves it within seconds; also wrong if the driver's reroute is already final\",\n \"grund\": \"The group lost their destination mid-ride and is actively searching for a closer replacement, a need that will persist for several minutes.\"\n}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "[0:45:03] \"just went to Google, it says Color Factory is closed\"; [0:45:35] \"Sugar Factory still option out there?\"; [0:46:04] \"It's far? ... Can we go somewhere a little closer?\"; [0:46:10] \"I'm gonna just type in the word factory on the Google, maybe something will pop up\"",
     "vorhersage": "The group is in the Uber with a reroute in progress and no confirmed destination; when the card appears they will still be deciding between Sugar Factory (far), Beat the Bomb, Wax Museum or other nearby options, and will need a quick list of closer alternatives for the next several minutes.",
     "reasoning": "The Color Factory just fell through mid-ride, the driver is rerouting, and Marlon explicitly asked for something closer and is about to search 'factory' himself. The decision is unresolved at 46:15 and will still be open 10-30 seconds from now since the ride is long and nobody has committed. A card with nearby attraction options helps exactly at this decision window; once they pick a spot it becomes useless. I must not invent names, prices or addresses, so options stay generic and any detail is a placeholder.",
     "risiko": "Annoying if they have already settled on Sugar Factory or if Marlon's own Google search resolves it within seconds; also wrong if the driver's reroute is already final",
     "konfidenz": 0.72,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Check Sugar Factory hours",
       "verworfen_weil": "They already got burned calling a closed venue; but they haven't committed to Sugar Factory yet, and verifying one option is premature while they're still brainstorming closer spots"
      },
      {
       "karte": "Book Beat the Bomb tickets",
       "verworfen_weil": "It was mentioned casually at [0:19:53] and never confirmed as the plan; booking now would be jumping the gun"
      },
      {
       "karte": "Text Jet meeting point",
       "verworfen_weil": "Jet was told Times Square earlier but the destination is now in flux; a meeting point card would be wrong until they actually pick a place"
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [
      "Sugar Factory",
      "Beat the Bomb",
      "Wax Museum"
     ],
     "karte": true,
     "kategorie": "place",
     "titel": "Closer factory alternatives",
     "zeile": "Color Factory closed — find nearer spot",
     "aktion": "Opens maps search for attractions near current route",
     "haltbar_s": 420,
     "grund": "The group lost their destination mid-ride and is actively searching for a closer replacement, a need that will persist for several minutes.",
     "verdict": "hit",
     "need": "place",
     "need_start": 2560
    },
    "openai/gpt-5.6-luna": {
     "lat": 8.2,
     "visible_at": 2803.2,
     "cost": 0.00524365,
     "raw": "{\n  \"beobachtung\": \"\\\"Can we go somewhere a little closer?\\\" (46:04) and \\\"I'm gonna just type in the word factory on the Google\\\" (46:11)\",\n  \"vorhersage\": \"They will still need a nearby destination while the Uber is being rerouted, likely for several minutes.\",\n  \"reasoning\": \"The Color Factory plan failed because they called the wrong city and the destination is now far away. They are actively searching for a closer alternative, so the need is likely to remain when the card appears. The 10–30 second latency should still land during their destination search rather than after arrival. Earlier they rejected Times Square because of overstimulation, while Sugar Factory remained only tentatively understood.\",\n  \"alternativen\": [\n    {\n      \"karte\": \"Confirm Sugar Factory\",\n      \"verworfen_weil\": \"They are explicitly questioning whether it is worthwhile and have asked for something closer.\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"karte\": \"Open Uber trip details\",\n      \"verworfen_weil\": \"The immediate problem is choosing a destination, not managing the current ride.\"\n    }\n  ],\n  \"karte\": true,\n  \"kategorie\": \"place\",\n  \"titel\": \"Find A Closer Stop\",\n  \"zeile\": \"Search nearby options without committing to the far destination.\",\n  \"aktion\": \"Open Maps with a nearby attractions search.\",\n  \"optionen\": [\n    \"Search nearby attractions\",\n    \"Keep Sugar Factory\",\n    \"Cancel reroute\"\n  ],\n  \"haltbar_s\": 180,\n  \"konfidenz\": 0.88,\n  \"risiko\": \"Annoying if they settle on a destination before the card appears or if generic nearby results distract from the ride.\",\n  \"grund\": \"The group remains undecided and is already trying to replace a far, uncertain destination.\"\n}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "\"Can we go somewhere a little closer?\" (46:04) and \"I'm gonna just type in the word factory on the Google\" (46:11)",
     "vorhersage": "They will still need a nearby destination while the Uber is being rerouted, likely for several minutes.",
     "reasoning": "The Color Factory plan failed because they called the wrong city and the destination is now far away. They are actively searching for a closer alternative, so the need is likely to remain when the card appears. The 10–30 second latency should still land during their destination search rather than after arrival. Earlier they rejected Times Square because of overstimulation, while Sugar Factory remained only tentatively understood.",
     "risiko": "Annoying if they settle on a destination before the card appears or if generic nearby results distract from the ride.",
     "konfidenz": 0.88,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Confirm Sugar Factory",
       "verworfen_weil": "They are explicitly questioning whether it is worthwhile and have asked for something closer."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Open Uber trip details",
       "verworfen_weil": "The immediate problem is choosing a destination, not managing the current ride."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [
      "Search nearby attractions",
      "Keep Sugar Factory",
      "Cancel reroute"
     ],
     "karte": true,
     "kategorie": "place",
     "titel": "Find A Closer Stop",
     "zeile": "Search nearby options without committing to the far destination.",
     "aktion": "Open Maps with a nearby attractions search.",
     "haltbar_s": 180,
     "grund": "The group remains undecided and is already trying to replace a far, uncertain destination.",
     "verdict": "hit",
     "need": "place",
     "need_start": 2560
    },
    "google/gemini-3.8-flash": {
     "lat": 14.1,
     "visible_at": 2809.1,
     "cost": 0.02054475,
     "raw": "{\"beobachtung\": \"Marlon at [0:46:04]: 'Can we go somewhere a little closer?' and Speaker 1 at [0:46:11]: 'I'm gonna just type in the word factory on the Google, maybe something will pop up.'\", \"reasoning\": \"The group is already inside an Uber debating where to reroute after abandoning Color Factory. The 'aufbruch' trigger is a false positive from earlier departure commotion. Destination ideas are fluctuating every few seconds among four people bantering in the car, and Speaker 1 is actively searching on his phone right now. Pushing an unsolicited venue card would clash with their immediate conversation and become obsolete before it is read.\", \"alternativen\": [{\"karte\": \"Card proposing Beat the Bomb or nearby interactive venues\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"The group is brainstorming rapidly in real time and checking Google themselves; any suggested venue would interfere with active stream banter and driver communication.\"}], \"karte\": false, \"grund\": \"The group is actively brainstorming and searching on their phones while in transit, making an unprompted venue recommendation intrusive and quickly outdated.\"}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "Marlon at [0:46:04]: 'Can we go somewhere a little closer?' and Speaker 1 at [0:46:11]: 'I'm gonna just type in the word factory on the Google, maybe something will pop up.'",
     "vorhersage": "",
     "reasoning": "The group is already inside an Uber debating where to reroute after abandoning Color Factory. The 'aufbruch' trigger is a false positive from earlier departure commotion. Destination ideas are fluctuating every few seconds among four people bantering in the car, and Speaker 1 is actively searching on his phone right now. Pushing an unsolicited venue card would clash with their immediate conversation and become obsolete before it is read.",
     "risiko": "",
     "konfidenz": null,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Card proposing Beat the Bomb or nearby interactive venues",
       "verworfen_weil": "The group is brainstorming rapidly in real time and checking Google themselves; any suggested venue would interfere with active stream banter and driver communication."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [],
     "verdict": "silent",
     "karte": false,
     "grund": "The group is actively brainstorming and searching on their phones while in transit, making an unprompted venue recommendation intrusive and quickly outdated."
    },
    "openai/gpt-5.6-sol": {
     "lat": 19.6,
     "visible_at": 2814.6,
     "cost": 0.0551885,
     "raw": "{\"beobachtung\":\"[0:32:37–0:32:57] “Oct asked what time we're coming… you didn't respond… Okay, let's head after this then.” [0:46:04–0:46:11] “Can we go somewhere a little closer?… I'm gonna just type in the word factory.”\",\"vorhersage\":\"They will still need to update Oct about the delayed, unsettled plan for at least several minutes.\",\"reasoning\":\"The group agreed to visit Oct after the next stop but apparently never answered his timing question. Their destination is changing again, so an exact ETA is unavailable, but a brief status update is still useful now. The card's latency will not remove this need because choosing and visiting the next stop will take much longer than 30 seconds. Earlier, they explicitly said they would head to Oct afterward.\",\"alternativen\":[{\"karte\":\"Find a nearby open activity\",\"verworfen_weil\":\"They are already searching Google and may choose a destination before the card appears.\"},{\"karte\":\"Reroute to Sugar Factory\",\"verworfen_weil\":\"They just rejected the added travel time and are actively seeking something closer.\"}],\"karte\":true,\"kategorie\":\"followup\",\"titel\":\"Update Oct\",\"zeile\":\"Next stop changed; send a quick status update before plans drift.\",\"aktion\":\"Opens the group chat with a drafted update to Oct.\",\"optionen\":[\"Open draft\",\"Remind after next stop\",\"Dismiss\"],\"haltbar_s\":1200,\"konfidenz\":0.84,\"risiko\":\"This would be unnecessary if someone already replied off-camera or the Oct visit was canceled.\",\"grund\":\"The unanswered timing request remains relevant despite the current destination search.\"}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "[0:32:37–0:32:57] “Oct asked what time we're coming… you didn't respond… Okay, let's head after this then.” [0:46:04–0:46:11] “Can we go somewhere a little closer?… I'm gonna just type in the word factory.”",
     "vorhersage": "They will still need to update Oct about the delayed, unsettled plan for at least several minutes.",
     "reasoning": "The group agreed to visit Oct after the next stop but apparently never answered his timing question. Their destination is changing again, so an exact ETA is unavailable, but a brief status update is still useful now. The card's latency will not remove this need because choosing and visiting the next stop will take much longer than 30 seconds. Earlier, they explicitly said they would head to Oct afterward.",
     "risiko": "This would be unnecessary if someone already replied off-camera or the Oct visit was canceled.",
     "konfidenz": 0.84,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Find a nearby open activity",
       "verworfen_weil": "They are already searching Google and may choose a destination before the card appears."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Reroute to Sugar Factory",
       "verworfen_weil": "They just rejected the added travel time and are actively seeking something closer."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [
      "Open draft",
      "Remind after next stop",
      "Dismiss"
     ],
     "karte": true,
     "kategorie": "followup",
     "titel": "Update Oct",
     "zeile": "Next stop changed; send a quick status update before plans drift.",
     "aktion": "Opens the group chat with a drafted update to Oct.",
     "haltbar_s": 1200,
     "grund": "The unanswered timing request remains relevant despite the current destination search.",
     "verdict": "hit",
     "need": "followup",
     "need_start": 1957
    },
    "moonshotai/kimi-k3": {
     "lat": 68.1,
     "visible_at": 2863.1,
     "cost": 0.0929559,
     "raw": "{\n \"beobachtung\": \"[0:46:08] Marlon: 'Can we go somewhere a little closer?' and [0:46:11] Speaker 1: 'I'm gonna just type in the word factory on the Google, maybe something will pop up.' — after [0:45:03] 'Color Factory is closed' and [0:45:57] driver: 'I'm gonna reroute us.'\",\n \"vorhersage\": \"In the next 1-4 minutes the group must agree on a new, closer destination for the Uber that is mid-reroute; the need lasts until they hand the driver a final address.\",\n \"reasoning\": \"Color Factory turned out closed and the Sugar Factory reroute visibly added many minutes, which they just pushed back on, so the destination decision is open exactly now. The driver is waiting on an address, meaning this resolves within minutes — a card visible at ~46:40-47:00 still lands inside the decision window. Earlier in the stream they themselves floated Beat the Bomb, the Balloon Museum and the Wax Museum, so a tappable shortlist with live distance and open status saves a fumbling Google search in a moving car. Later is too late: once they tell the driver a place, the card is dead weight.\",\n \"alternativen\": [\n  {\"karte\": \"Text Oct the ETA for later\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"The Oct meetup was explicitly parked as 'after this'; the unresolved Uber destination is the live problem right now.\"},\n  {\"karte\": \"Uber destination-change helper\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"The driver is in the car and already rerouting verbally; the bottleneck is choosing the place, not the app mechanics.\"}\n ],\n \"karte\": true,\n \"kategorie\": \"place\",\n \"titel\": \"Closer options instead\",\n \"zeile\": \"Color Factory closed, Sugar Factory far — pick a nearer spot to reroute to.\",\n \"aktion\": \"Opens a maps shortlist of the mentioned venues near current location with live distance and open status.\",\n \"optionen\": [\"Beat the Bomb — [X min]\", \"Balloon Museum — [X min]\", \"Keep Sugar Factory — [X min]\"],\n \"haltbar_s\": 240,\n \"konfidenz\": 0.62,\n \"risiko\": \"Annoying if they already committed to Sugar Factory in the last 15 unseen seconds, or if a suggested spot is also closed — open status must be checked live before showing.\",\n \"grund\": \"They sit in a moving Uber with the driver waiting on a closer destination, and a tappable shortlist resolves that open decision inside its short lifetime.\"\n}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "[0:46:08] Marlon: 'Can we go somewhere a little closer?' and [0:46:11] Speaker 1: 'I'm gonna just type in the word factory on the Google, maybe something will pop up.' — after [0:45:03] 'Color Factory is closed' and [0:45:57] driver: 'I'm gonna reroute us.'",
     "vorhersage": "In the next 1-4 minutes the group must agree on a new, closer destination for the Uber that is mid-reroute; the need lasts until they hand the driver a final address.",
     "reasoning": "Color Factory turned out closed and the Sugar Factory reroute visibly added many minutes, which they just pushed back on, so the destination decision is open exactly now. The driver is waiting on an address, meaning this resolves within minutes — a card visible at ~46:40-47:00 still lands inside the decision window. Earlier in the stream they themselves floated Beat the Bomb, the Balloon Museum and the Wax Museum, so a tappable shortlist with live distance and open status saves a fumbling Google search in a moving car. Later is too late: once they tell the driver a place, the card is dead weight.",
     "risiko": "Annoying if they already committed to Sugar Factory in the last 15 unseen seconds, or if a suggested spot is also closed — open status must be checked live before showing.",
     "konfidenz": 0.62,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Text Oct the ETA for later",
       "verworfen_weil": "The Oct meetup was explicitly parked as 'after this'; the unresolved Uber destination is the live problem right now."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Uber destination-change helper",
       "verworfen_weil": "The driver is in the car and already rerouting verbally; the bottleneck is choosing the place, not the app mechanics."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [
      "Beat the Bomb — [X min]",
      "Balloon Museum — [X min]",
      "Keep Sugar Factory — [X min]"
     ],
     "karte": true,
     "kategorie": "place",
     "titel": "Closer options instead",
     "zeile": "Color Factory closed, Sugar Factory far — pick a nearer spot to reroute to.",
     "aktion": "Opens a maps shortlist of the mentioned venues near current location with live distance and open status.",
     "haltbar_s": 240,
     "grund": "They sit in a moving Uber with the driver waiting on a closer destination, and a tappable shortlist resolves that open decision inside its short lifetime.",
     "verdict": "hit",
     "need": "place",
     "need_start": 2560
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "t": 2850,
   "signal": "ankuendigung",
   "conf": 0.72,
   "seen_until": 2835,
   "models": {
    "deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash": {
     "lat": 14.4,
     "visible_at": 2869.4,
     "cost": 0.00270886,
     "raw": "{\n  \"beobachtung\": \"[0:45:20] Announcement: \\\"Color Factory. Visit our website, colorfactory.co. Purchase tickets for each of our venues located in New York City, Houston, and Chicago.\\\" and [0:45:33] Speaker 1: \\\"So it instantly went to Voicemail.\\\" [0:45:35] Marlon: \\\"I mean you called the one in Chicago.\\\"\",\n  \"vorhersage\": \"The group is still in the Uber with the driver, actively trying to pick a destination after Color Factory fell through. They will keep debating Sugar Factory vs. other options for at least the next few minutes while the driver waits to reroute.\",\n  \"reasoning\": \"The pre-filter fired on the Color Factory voicemail/announcement, which is a real dead end the group is now stuck on. They are literally in a moving car asking the driver for recommendations and trying to type 'factory' into Google, so a card that surfaces nearby bookable options is directly useful right now. The latency of 10-30s is fine because they are still mid-decision and the Uber is idling/rerouting. Earlier in the stream they already bounced off the Sex Museum, Sugar Factory confusion, and Times Square overstimulation, so a curated short list beats another round of guessing.\",\n  \"alternativen\": [\n    {\n      \"karte\": \"Book Sugar Factory reservation\",\n      \"verworfen_weil\": \"They are not even sure Sugar Factory is a real sit-down place vs. a candy store, and Marlon explicitly doubts it; booking before confirming would be premature.\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"karte\": \"Note idea: Dagestan training trip\",\n      \"verworfen_weil\": \"It is a fun bit but not actionable today and the group is focused on finding a destination now.\"\n    }\n  ],\n  \"karte\": true,\n  \"kategorie\": \"place\",\n  \"titel\": \"Nearby indoor options now\",\n  \"zeile\": \"Color Factory closed — pick a nearby spot to reroute\",\n  \"aktion\": \"Opens a short list of nearby indoor attractions with hours and ticket links\",\n  \"optionen\": [\n    \"Sugar Factory\",\n    \"Beat the Bomb\",\n    \"Wax Museum\"\n  ],\n  \"haltbar_s\": 240,\n  \"konfidenz\": 0.72,\n  \"risiko\": \"If the driver or group has already locked a new destination in the next 30 seconds, this card becomes stale and annoying.\",\n  \"grund\": \"They are mid-Uber actively choosing a replacement destination after Color Factory turned out closed.\"\n}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "[0:45:20] Announcement: \"Color Factory. Visit our website, colorfactory.co. Purchase tickets for each of our venues located in New York City, Houston, and Chicago.\" and [0:45:33] Speaker 1: \"So it instantly went to Voicemail.\" [0:45:35] Marlon: \"I mean you called the one in Chicago.\"",
     "vorhersage": "The group is still in the Uber with the driver, actively trying to pick a destination after Color Factory fell through. They will keep debating Sugar Factory vs. other options for at least the next few minutes while the driver waits to reroute.",
     "reasoning": "The pre-filter fired on the Color Factory voicemail/announcement, which is a real dead end the group is now stuck on. They are literally in a moving car asking the driver for recommendations and trying to type 'factory' into Google, so a card that surfaces nearby bookable options is directly useful right now. The latency of 10-30s is fine because they are still mid-decision and the Uber is idling/rerouting. Earlier in the stream they already bounced off the Sex Museum, Sugar Factory confusion, and Times Square overstimulation, so a curated short list beats another round of guessing.",
     "risiko": "If the driver or group has already locked a new destination in the next 30 seconds, this card becomes stale and annoying.",
     "konfidenz": 0.72,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Book Sugar Factory reservation",
       "verworfen_weil": "They are not even sure Sugar Factory is a real sit-down place vs. a candy store, and Marlon explicitly doubts it; booking before confirming would be premature."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Note idea: Dagestan training trip",
       "verworfen_weil": "It is a fun bit but not actionable today and the group is focused on finding a destination now."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [
      "Sugar Factory",
      "Beat the Bomb",
      "Wax Museum"
     ],
     "karte": true,
     "kategorie": "place",
     "titel": "Nearby indoor options now",
     "zeile": "Color Factory closed — pick a nearby spot to reroute",
     "aktion": "Opens a short list of nearby indoor attractions with hours and ticket links",
     "haltbar_s": 240,
     "grund": "They are mid-Uber actively choosing a replacement destination after Color Factory turned out closed.",
     "verdict": "hit",
     "need": "place",
     "need_start": 2560
    },
    "z-ai/glm-5.3-flash": {
     "lat": 19.6,
     "visible_at": 2874.6,
     "cost": 0.0021711,
     "raw": "{\n \"beobachtung\": \"[0:46:31] Driver: \\\"You're asking the right guy. I can take you the city tour though... Dumbo, Flatiron, Brooklyn Bridge, Little Italy, Chelsea\\\" — and at [0:45:47]-[0:46:08] the group is still destinationless: Color Factory closed, Sugar Factory \\\"slapped on minutes\\\" and Marlon asked \\\"Can we go somewhere a little closer?\\\"\",\n \"vorhersage\": \"When the card becomes visible (~47:40-47:45), the group is still in the Uber without a confirmed destination. They will need to decide between the far Sugar Factory, another 'factory' spot, or the driver's city tour offer — a decision that stays open for several minutes of ride time.\",\n \"reasoning\": \"The destination question has been unresolved since Color Factory was found closed at [0:42:40], and the driver just pitched a concrete alternative (city tour with named stops) that nobody has answered. The pre-filter's 'ankuendigung' fits: the driver announced an offer, and plans/decisions last long. Latency of 10-30 seconds is fine because the ride itself takes minutes and the decision is still pending. A card capturing the driver's offer keeps it from getting lost in the banter about Dagestan and boxing.\",\n \"alternativen\": [{\"karte\": \"Sugar Factory distance check\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"Marlon already saw the ETA and asked for closer options; re-showing it adds nothing\"}, {\"karte\": \"Call Color Factory manager (Jet follow-up)\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"Jet's call went to voicemail on the wrong city's number; the group has mentally moved on to other options\"}, {\"karte\": \"Book Beat the Bomb\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"It was floated at [0:19:53] and never picked back up; no active intent right now\"}],\n \"karte\": true,\n \"kategorie\": \"transport\",\n \"titel\": \"Driver's city tour offer\",\n \"zeile\": \"Driver offered a private city tour: Dumbo, Flatiron, Brooklyn Bridge, Little Italy\",\n \"aktion\": \"Opens a note with the driver's suggested tour stops to decide or revisit\",\n \"optionen\": [\"Take the city tour\", \"Keep Sugar Factory\", \"Ask driver for closer stop\"],\n \"haltbar_s\": 600,\n \"konfidenz\": 0.7,\n \"risiko\": \"If they've already decided on Sugar Factory in the unseen 15 seconds, or the driver pitch was pure small talk, the card is noise during an entertaining ride segment.\",\n \"grund\": \"The group is mid-ride with no destination and an unanswered tour offer from the driver, a decision that will still be live when the card appears.\"\n}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "[0:46:31] Driver: \"You're asking the right guy. I can take you the city tour though... Dumbo, Flatiron, Brooklyn Bridge, Little Italy, Chelsea\" — and at [0:45:47]-[0:46:08] the group is still destinationless: Color Factory closed, Sugar Factory \"slapped on minutes\" and Marlon asked \"Can we go somewhere a little closer?\"",
     "vorhersage": "When the card becomes visible (~47:40-47:45), the group is still in the Uber without a confirmed destination. They will need to decide between the far Sugar Factory, another 'factory' spot, or the driver's city tour offer — a decision that stays open for several minutes of ride time.",
     "reasoning": "The destination question has been unresolved since Color Factory was found closed at [0:42:40], and the driver just pitched a concrete alternative (city tour with named stops) that nobody has answered. The pre-filter's 'ankuendigung' fits: the driver announced an offer, and plans/decisions last long. Latency of 10-30 seconds is fine because the ride itself takes minutes and the decision is still pending. A card capturing the driver's offer keeps it from getting lost in the banter about Dagestan and boxing.",
     "risiko": "If they've already decided on Sugar Factory in the unseen 15 seconds, or the driver pitch was pure small talk, the card is noise during an entertaining ride segment.",
     "konfidenz": 0.7,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Sugar Factory distance check",
       "verworfen_weil": "Marlon already saw the ETA and asked for closer options; re-showing it adds nothing"
      },
      {
       "karte": "Call Color Factory manager (Jet follow-up)",
       "verworfen_weil": "Jet's call went to voicemail on the wrong city's number; the group has mentally moved on to other options"
      },
      {
       "karte": "Book Beat the Bomb",
       "verworfen_weil": "It was floated at [0:19:53] and never picked back up; no active intent right now"
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [
      "Take the city tour",
      "Keep Sugar Factory",
      "Ask driver for closer stop"
     ],
     "karte": true,
     "kategorie": "transport",
     "titel": "Driver's city tour offer",
     "zeile": "Driver offered a private city tour: Dumbo, Flatiron, Brooklyn Bridge, Little Italy",
     "aktion": "Opens a note with the driver's suggested tour stops to decide or revisit",
     "haltbar_s": 600,
     "grund": "The group is mid-ride with no destination and an unanswered tour offer from the driver, a decision that will still be live when the card appears.",
     "verdict": "late",
     "late_by": 1452,
     "need": "transport",
     "need_start": 1323
    },
    "openai/gpt-5.6-luna": {
     "lat": 9.1,
     "visible_at": 2864.1,
     "cost": 0.00529975,
     "raw": "{\n  \"beobachtung\": \"\\\"Can we go somewhere a little closer?\\\" [0:46:04] followed by \\\"Any recommendations in New York City?\\\" [0:46:20]\",\n  \"vorhersage\": \"They will still need to choose a nearby destination while the Uber is moving, likely for several minutes.\",\n  \"reasoning\": \"The Color Factory plan failed and Sugar Factory is uncertain, so the group is actively searching for a replacement destination. The driver has just offered several concrete New York options, making a place-selection card useful now. This need will outlast the card latency because the Uber is already being rerouted and they have not settled on a stop. Earlier, they rejected Times Square for overstimulation and repeatedly asked for something interesting to explore.\",\n  \"alternativen\": [\n    {\n      \"karte\": \"Confirm Sugar Factory\",\n      \"verworfen_weil\": \"They are unsure whether it is an attraction or merely a candy store, and the current reroute may be too far.\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"karte\": \"United Nations visit\",\n      \"verworfen_weil\": \"The transcript says the driver will work there next week, not that it is available or planned today.\"\n    }\n  ],\n  \"karte\": true,\n  \"kategorie\": \"place\",\n  \"titel\": \"Choose A New York Stop\",\n  \"zeile\": \"Pick a nearby destination from the driver's suggestions.\",\n  \"aktion\": \"Open route options for the selected destination\",\n  \"optionen\": [\n    \"DUMBO\",\n    \"Brooklyn Bridge\",\n    \"Little Italy\"\n  ],\n  \"haltbar_s\": 240,\n  \"konfidenz\": 0.86,\n  \"risiko\": \"The card would be annoying if the driver suggests a better closer stop or the group decides to continue searching.\",\n  \"grund\": \"Their planned destinations failed, and they need a replacement before the Uber reaches its next decision point.\"\n}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "\"Can we go somewhere a little closer?\" [0:46:04] followed by \"Any recommendations in New York City?\" [0:46:20]",
     "vorhersage": "They will still need to choose a nearby destination while the Uber is moving, likely for several minutes.",
     "reasoning": "The Color Factory plan failed and Sugar Factory is uncertain, so the group is actively searching for a replacement destination. The driver has just offered several concrete New York options, making a place-selection card useful now. This need will outlast the card latency because the Uber is already being rerouted and they have not settled on a stop. Earlier, they rejected Times Square for overstimulation and repeatedly asked for something interesting to explore.",
     "risiko": "The card would be annoying if the driver suggests a better closer stop or the group decides to continue searching.",
     "konfidenz": 0.86,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Confirm Sugar Factory",
       "verworfen_weil": "They are unsure whether it is an attraction or merely a candy store, and the current reroute may be too far."
      },
      {
       "karte": "United Nations visit",
       "verworfen_weil": "The transcript says the driver will work there next week, not that it is available or planned today."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [
      "DUMBO",
      "Brooklyn Bridge",
      "Little Italy"
     ],
     "karte": true,
     "kategorie": "place",
     "titel": "Choose A New York Stop",
     "zeile": "Pick a nearby destination from the driver's suggestions.",
     "aktion": "Open route options for the selected destination",
     "haltbar_s": 240,
     "grund": "Their planned destinations failed, and they need a replacement before the Uber reaches its next decision point.",
     "verdict": "hit",
     "need": "place",
     "need_start": 2560
    },
    "google/gemini-3.8-flash": {
     "lat": 17.1,
     "visible_at": 2872.1,
     "cost": 0.0209235,
     "raw": "{\"beobachtung\": \"Driver at [0:47:12]: 'Next week, ten days I'm gonna work in United Nations.' followed by [0:46:25] asking the driver for recommendations.\", \"reasoning\": \"The pre-filter 'ankuendigung' triggered on the Uber driver talking about his upcoming work schedule, which is completely irrelevant to the streamers' operational needs. While the group briefly discussed finding an indoor activity closer than Sugar Factory, they are currently fully engaged in comedic banter with the driver about his celebrity clients and boxing background. Pushing an unsolicited destination card right now would interrupt a high-energy IRL stream moment. Once the banter settles and the group explicitly requests or agrees on a specific venue type to navigate to, assistance may be appropriate.\", \"alternativen\": [{\"karte\": \"Show directions or info for Beat the Bomb or nearby indoor attractions\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"Unsolicited suggestion while the group is actively riffing with the eccentric driver.\"}], \"karte\": false, \"grund\": \"The signal was a false positive triggered by the driver's personal announcement, and interrupting their current banter with an unprompted venue card would disrupt the stream.\"}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "Driver at [0:47:12]: 'Next week, ten days I'm gonna work in United Nations.' followed by [0:46:25] asking the driver for recommendations.",
     "vorhersage": "",
     "reasoning": "The pre-filter 'ankuendigung' triggered on the Uber driver talking about his upcoming work schedule, which is completely irrelevant to the streamers' operational needs. While the group briefly discussed finding an indoor activity closer than Sugar Factory, they are currently fully engaged in comedic banter with the driver about his celebrity clients and boxing background. Pushing an unsolicited destination card right now would interrupt a high-energy IRL stream moment. Once the banter settles and the group explicitly requests or agrees on a specific venue type to navigate to, assistance may be appropriate.",
     "risiko": "",
     "konfidenz": null,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Show directions or info for Beat the Bomb or nearby indoor attractions",
       "verworfen_weil": "Unsolicited suggestion while the group is actively riffing with the eccentric driver."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [],
     "verdict": "silent",
     "karte": false,
     "grund": "The signal was a false positive triggered by the driver's personal announcement, and interrupting their current banter with an unprompted venue card would disrupt the stream."
    },
    "openai/gpt-5.6-sol": {
     "lat": 11.0,
     "visible_at": 2866.0,
     "cost": 0.0496835,
     "raw": "{\"beobachtung\":\"[0:46:04] Marlon: “It’s far? ... Can we go somewhere a little closer?” and [0:46:31] the driver begins listing alternatives.\",\"vorhersage\":\"They will need to choose a nearby open destination before rerouting the Uber; this should remain relevant for several minutes.\",\"reasoning\":\"Their Color Factory plan failed, Sugar Factory appears too far, and they are still searching for alternatives while already in the car. A comparison card is useful now because choosing and verifying the next stop will likely take longer than a quick app check. With the 10–30 second display delay, they may still be discussing the driver’s tour suggestions, but the destination decision is unlikely to be fully settled. Earlier they showed interest in Beat the Bomb, the Wax Museum, and Sugar Factory, so these are grounded options rather than new suggestions.\",\"alternativen\":[{\"karte\":\"Driver’s suggested city tour stops\",\"verworfen_weil\":\"They asked for an indoor activity, and the listed landmarks may not fit that preference.\"},{\"karte\":\"Color Factory hours\",\"verworfen_weil\":\"They have already called, heard voicemail, and appear to be abandoning it.\"}],\"karte\":true,\"kategorie\":\"place\",\"titel\":\"Choose Next Indoor Stop\",\"zeile\":\"Compare travel time and open status before rerouting.\",\"aktion\":\"Open a maps comparison for the three previously discussed destinations.\",\"optionen\":[\"Beat the Bomb\",\"Wax Museum\",\"Sugar Factory\"],\"haltbar_s\":300,\"konfidenz\":0.79,\"risiko\":\"Annoying if they confirm a destination or accept the driver’s city tour before it appears.\",\"grund\":\"The group needs a verified nearby destination while the Uber route is still undecided.\"}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "[0:46:04] Marlon: “It’s far? ... Can we go somewhere a little closer?” and [0:46:31] the driver begins listing alternatives.",
     "vorhersage": "They will need to choose a nearby open destination before rerouting the Uber; this should remain relevant for several minutes.",
     "reasoning": "Their Color Factory plan failed, Sugar Factory appears too far, and they are still searching for alternatives while already in the car. A comparison card is useful now because choosing and verifying the next stop will likely take longer than a quick app check. With the 10–30 second display delay, they may still be discussing the driver’s tour suggestions, but the destination decision is unlikely to be fully settled. Earlier they showed interest in Beat the Bomb, the Wax Museum, and Sugar Factory, so these are grounded options rather than new suggestions.",
     "risiko": "Annoying if they confirm a destination or accept the driver’s city tour before it appears.",
     "konfidenz": 0.79,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Driver’s suggested city tour stops",
       "verworfen_weil": "They asked for an indoor activity, and the listed landmarks may not fit that preference."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Color Factory hours",
       "verworfen_weil": "They have already called, heard voicemail, and appear to be abandoning it."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [
      "Beat the Bomb",
      "Wax Museum",
      "Sugar Factory"
     ],
     "karte": true,
     "kategorie": "place",
     "titel": "Choose Next Indoor Stop",
     "zeile": "Compare travel time and open status before rerouting.",
     "aktion": "Open a maps comparison for the three previously discussed destinations.",
     "haltbar_s": 300,
     "grund": "The group needs a verified nearby destination while the Uber route is still undecided.",
     "verdict": "hit",
     "need": "place",
     "need_start": 2560
    },
    "moonshotai/kimi-k3": {
     "lat": 99.6,
     "visible_at": 2954.6,
     "cost": 0.0553305,
     "raw": "{\n \"beobachtung\": \"[0:45:20] Announcement: 'Color Factory. Visit our website, colorfactory.co. Purchase tickets...' — plus [0:46:11] 'I'm gonna just type in the word factory on the Google, maybe something will pop up', [0:46:20] 'Sir, sir, you got any recommendations in New York City?' and [0:47:09] 'Fitness Factory. No, no, it's closed.'\",\n \"vorhersage\": \"When the card appears (~47:40-48:00) the group will still be in the Uber without a confirmed destination, debating options while the driver waits to reroute. The need — pick somewhere open, close, and interesting — should persist another 2-4 minutes until they commit.\",\n \"reasoning\": \"The pre-filter caught the Color Factory voicemail, but the real live need is the destination search happening right now: they are manually googling 'factory', getting closed results, and asking the driver for ideas. The deliberation has already run since ~42:40 (Color Factory closed, Sugar Factory too far, Times Square rejected as overstimulating), so a 10-30 second delay still lands mid-decision. Later is worse: once they hand the driver a pick or accept his city tour, the card is moot. Earlier context (kicked out of the museum, manager approval still pending) confirms 'open now + nearby + filmable' is the binding constraint.\",\n \"alternativen\": [\n  {\"karte\": \"Color Factory tickets via colorfactory.co\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"Group concluded it is closed/unreachable and already pivoted away; a booking link would feel tone-deaf now.\"},\n  {\"karte\": \"Sugar Factory info and hours card\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"They flagged it as too far and asked for closer options; I also cannot verify hours without inventing them.\"},\n  {\"karte\": \"Reply to Oct with an ETA\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"Already handled in the group chat ('I said yeah') and it is a later plan, not the current bottleneck.\"}\n ],\n \"karte\": true,\n \"kategorie\": \"place\",\n \"titel\": \"Nearby spots open now\",\n \"zeile\": \"Open-now attractions within a short drive — compare before the driver commits.\",\n \"aktion\": \"Opens Maps filtered to attractions open now, sorted by drive time from current location.\",\n \"optionen\": [\"Sugar Factory [X min away]\", \"Beat the Bomb [X min away]\", \"Driver's city tour instead\"],\n \"haltbar_s\": 240,\n \"konfidenz\": 0.7,\n \"risiko\": \"Wrong if they already settled on a destination or the driver's tour in the last seconds; noise if they would rather wander than plan.\",\n \"grund\": \"They are actively searching for an open nearby attraction while the Uber waits for a destination, and that decision window lasts several more minutes.\"\n}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "[0:45:20] Announcement: 'Color Factory. Visit our website, colorfactory.co. Purchase tickets...' — plus [0:46:11] 'I'm gonna just type in the word factory on the Google, maybe something will pop up', [0:46:20] 'Sir, sir, you got any recommendations in New York City?' and [0:47:09] 'Fitness Factory. No, no, it's closed.'",
     "vorhersage": "When the card appears (~47:40-48:00) the group will still be in the Uber without a confirmed destination, debating options while the driver waits to reroute. The need — pick somewhere open, close, and interesting — should persist another 2-4 minutes until they commit.",
     "reasoning": "The pre-filter caught the Color Factory voicemail, but the real live need is the destination search happening right now: they are manually googling 'factory', getting closed results, and asking the driver for ideas. The deliberation has already run since ~42:40 (Color Factory closed, Sugar Factory too far, Times Square rejected as overstimulating), so a 10-30 second delay still lands mid-decision. Later is worse: once they hand the driver a pick or accept his city tour, the card is moot. Earlier context (kicked out of the museum, manager approval still pending) confirms 'open now + nearby + filmable' is the binding constraint.",
     "risiko": "Wrong if they already settled on a destination or the driver's tour in the last seconds; noise if they would rather wander than plan.",
     "konfidenz": 0.7,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Color Factory tickets via colorfactory.co",
       "verworfen_weil": "Group concluded it is closed/unreachable and already pivoted away; a booking link would feel tone-deaf now."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Sugar Factory info and hours card",
       "verworfen_weil": "They flagged it as too far and asked for closer options; I also cannot verify hours without inventing them."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Reply to Oct with an ETA",
       "verworfen_weil": "Already handled in the group chat ('I said yeah') and it is a later plan, not the current bottleneck."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [
      "Sugar Factory [X min away]",
      "Beat the Bomb [X min away]",
      "Driver's city tour instead"
     ],
     "karte": true,
     "kategorie": "place",
     "titel": "Nearby spots open now",
     "zeile": "Open-now attractions within a short drive — compare before the driver commits.",
     "aktion": "Opens Maps filtered to attractions open now, sorted by drive time from current location.",
     "haltbar_s": 240,
     "grund": "They are actively searching for an open nearby attraction while the Uber waits for a destination, and that decision window lasts several more minutes.",
     "verdict": "hit",
     "need": "place",
     "need_start": 2560
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "t": 2910,
   "signal": "aufbruch",
   "conf": 0.74,
   "seen_until": 2895,
   "models": {
    "deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash": {
     "lat": 12.0,
     "visible_at": 2927.0,
     "cost": 0.00258271,
     "raw": "{\n  \"beobachtung\": \"[0:47:24] Speaker 1: \\\"Fitness Factory is literally a one mile drive.\\\" and [0:47:31] Speaker 1: \\\"this is right now the Sugar Factory, but you know, we'll probably find another factory.\\\"\",\n  \"vorhersage\": \"The group is in an Uber with no confirmed destination; they will keep debating factory options and need a concrete, open, nearby place to go for at least the next several minutes.\",\n  \"reasoning\": \"The pre-filter 'aufbruch' fired, and the transcript confirms the group is actively in transit and undecided about where to go. Color Factory is closed, Sugar Factory is far, and they just asked the driver for recommendations. This is a long-lasting need (destination planning) that won't resolve in under 30 seconds. A card with nearby open options would be useful now, but the latency means it must still be relevant when it appears — the group will still be in the car deciding.\",\n  \"alternativen\": [\n    {\"karte\": \"Book Sugar Factory reservation\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"They haven't committed to Sugar Factory and it's far; booking would be premature.\"},\n    {\"karte\": \"Note the Sex Museum manager follow-up\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"That's a later follow-up, not the immediate need while in transit.\"}\n  ],\n  \"karte\": true,\n  \"kategorie\": \"place\",\n  \"titel\": \"Nearby open options\",\n  \"zeile\": \"Color Factory closed; here are open spots near you\",\n  \"aktion\": \"Opens a list of nearby open attractions and their hours\",\n  \"optionen\": [\"Show open museums nearby\", \"Show Sugar Factory details\", \"Show driver's suggestions\"],\n  \"haltbar_s\": 300,\n  \"konfidenz\": 0.7,\n  \"risiko\": \"If they commit to Sugar Factory or the driver reroutes before the card appears, the options may be irrelevant.\",\n  \"grund\": \"The group is in an Uber with no confirmed destination and needs open, nearby options now.\"\n}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "[0:47:24] Speaker 1: \"Fitness Factory is literally a one mile drive.\" and [0:47:31] Speaker 1: \"this is right now the Sugar Factory, but you know, we'll probably find another factory.\"",
     "vorhersage": "The group is in an Uber with no confirmed destination; they will keep debating factory options and need a concrete, open, nearby place to go for at least the next several minutes.",
     "reasoning": "The pre-filter 'aufbruch' fired, and the transcript confirms the group is actively in transit and undecided about where to go. Color Factory is closed, Sugar Factory is far, and they just asked the driver for recommendations. This is a long-lasting need (destination planning) that won't resolve in under 30 seconds. A card with nearby open options would be useful now, but the latency means it must still be relevant when it appears — the group will still be in the car deciding.",
     "risiko": "If they commit to Sugar Factory or the driver reroutes before the card appears, the options may be irrelevant.",
     "konfidenz": 0.7,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Book Sugar Factory reservation",
       "verworfen_weil": "They haven't committed to Sugar Factory and it's far; booking would be premature."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Note the Sex Museum manager follow-up",
       "verworfen_weil": "That's a later follow-up, not the immediate need while in transit."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [
      "Show open museums nearby",
      "Show Sugar Factory details",
      "Show driver's suggestions"
     ],
     "karte": true,
     "kategorie": "place",
     "titel": "Nearby open options",
     "zeile": "Color Factory closed; here are open spots near you",
     "aktion": "Opens a list of nearby open attractions and their hours",
     "haltbar_s": 300,
     "grund": "The group is in an Uber with no confirmed destination and needs open, nearby options now.",
     "verdict": "repeat",
     "need": "place",
     "need_start": 2560
    },
    "z-ai/glm-5.3-flash": {
     "lat": 29.8,
     "visible_at": 2944.8,
     "cost": 0.00224514,
     "raw": "{\n \"beobachtung\": \"[0:32:37] Speaker 4: \\\"Oh wait, Oct asked what time we're coming by the way.\\\" / [0:32:53] \\\"They all texted the group chat and said, hey guys, can we have Oct today?\\\" / [0:32:57] Marlon: \\\"Okay, let's head after this then.\\\"\",\n \"vorhersage\": \"Group is in the Uber with a shifting destination (Color Factory closed, Sugar Factory far, Wax Museum now floated). The Oct visit is agreed as 'after this' and could get lost in the chaos of rerouting; the need persists for the rest of the ride and beyond.\",\n \"reasoning\": \"The agreed plan to meet Oct after the current stop is a concrete, later commitment made mid-ride while the destination keeps changing (Color Factory closed at 0:42:40, reroute at 0:45:57, Wax Museum at 0:48:15). With the destination still unresolved, this promise is easy to forget. The card becomes visible 10-30s from now, while they are still en route and debating stops, so the reminder is timely. The 'aufbruch' pre-filter is likely a false positive (they are mid-ride, not departing), but the Oct followup is independently worth a card.\",\n \"alternativen\": [{\"karte\": \"Sugar Factory ETA and distance\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"Marlon already flagged it's far and they are actively rerouting; resolved within seconds by conversation\"}, {\"karte\": \"Color Factory closed - pick new stop\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"They are already handling this live in the transcript; not worth a card\"}],\n \"karte\": true,\n \"kategorie\": \"followup\",\n \"titel\": \"Oct meetup after this stop\",\n \"zeile\": \"Oct asked what time you're coming by today\",\n \"aktion\": \"Open notes with the Oct meetup reminder\",\n \"optionen\": [\"Mark as done\", \"Add time placeholder\", \"Message Oct\"],\n \"haltbar_s\": 1800,\n \"konfidenz\": 0.62,\n \"risiko\": \"Annoying if the group is already actively coordinating with Oct in the group chat or if plans change again mid-ride\",\n \"grund\": \"The Oct visit was explicitly agreed as a later plan and is at risk of being forgotten amid the ongoing destination chaos.\"\n}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "[0:32:37] Speaker 4: \"Oh wait, Oct asked what time we're coming by the way.\" / [0:32:53] \"They all texted the group chat and said, hey guys, can we have Oct today?\" / [0:32:57] Marlon: \"Okay, let's head after this then.\"",
     "vorhersage": "Group is in the Uber with a shifting destination (Color Factory closed, Sugar Factory far, Wax Museum now floated). The Oct visit is agreed as 'after this' and could get lost in the chaos of rerouting; the need persists for the rest of the ride and beyond.",
     "reasoning": "The agreed plan to meet Oct after the current stop is a concrete, later commitment made mid-ride while the destination keeps changing (Color Factory closed at 0:42:40, reroute at 0:45:57, Wax Museum at 0:48:15). With the destination still unresolved, this promise is easy to forget. The card becomes visible 10-30s from now, while they are still en route and debating stops, so the reminder is timely. The 'aufbruch' pre-filter is likely a false positive (they are mid-ride, not departing), but the Oct followup is independently worth a card.",
     "risiko": "Annoying if the group is already actively coordinating with Oct in the group chat or if plans change again mid-ride",
     "konfidenz": 0.62,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Sugar Factory ETA and distance",
       "verworfen_weil": "Marlon already flagged it's far and they are actively rerouting; resolved within seconds by conversation"
      },
      {
       "karte": "Color Factory closed - pick new stop",
       "verworfen_weil": "They are already handling this live in the transcript; not worth a card"
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [
      "Mark as done",
      "Add time placeholder",
      "Message Oct"
     ],
     "karte": true,
     "kategorie": "followup",
     "titel": "Oct meetup after this stop",
     "zeile": "Oct asked what time you're coming by today",
     "aktion": "Open notes with the Oct meetup reminder",
     "haltbar_s": 1800,
     "grund": "The Oct visit was explicitly agreed as a later plan and is at risk of being forgotten amid the ongoing destination chaos.",
     "verdict": "hit",
     "need": "followup",
     "need_start": 1957
    },
    "openai/gpt-5.6-luna": {
     "lat": 8.7,
     "visible_at": 2923.7,
     "cost": 0.00540735,
     "raw": "{\n  \"beobachtung\": \"At 47:31, Marlon asks, \\\"What do you guys want to do?\\\" while the Uber destination remains unsettled; at 47:56, the driver suggests DUMBO and Brooklyn Bridge.\",\n  \"vorhersage\": \"When visible, they will still need to choose an entertaining next stop and reroute the Uber, likely for several minutes.\",\n  \"reasoning\": \"The group has repeatedly changed plans after the Color Factory was found closed and Times Square was rejected as overstimulating. The destination decision is still active at 48:15, so it is unlikely to disappear during the card's latency. Earlier discussion shows they prefer an indoor or visually interesting attraction, but the driver has now introduced nearby sightseeing alternatives. A concise choice card can reduce continued debate without inventing travel times or availability.\",\n  \"alternativen\": [\n    {\n      \"karte\": \"Reroute to Sugar Factory\",\n      \"verworfen_weil\": \"They remain unsure whether it matches their expectations and had already questioned its distance.\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"karte\": \"Recontact the Sex Museum\",\n      \"verworfen_weil\": \"The venue already rejected filming and the group was removed.\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"karte\": \"Open nearby attractions search\",\n      \"verworfen_weil\": \"A broad search would prolong the indecision instead of offering actionable choices.\"\n    }\n  ],\n  \"karte\": true,\n  \"kategorie\": \"place\",\n  \"titel\": \"Choose Next Stop\",\n  \"zeile\": \"Pick a destination and reroute the Uber.\",\n  \"aktion\": \"Set the Uber destination to the selected place.\",\n  \"optionen\": [\n    \"DUMBO\",\n    \"Brooklyn Bridge\",\n    \"Little Italy\"\n  ],\n  \"haltbar_s\": 300,\n  \"konfidenz\": 0.86,\n  \"risiko\": \"Annoying or wrong if the driver or group has already agreed on another destination before the card appears.\",\n  \"grund\": \"The group is actively searching for a replacement destination and needs a durable decision while already in transit.\"\n}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "At 47:31, Marlon asks, \"What do you guys want to do?\" while the Uber destination remains unsettled; at 47:56, the driver suggests DUMBO and Brooklyn Bridge.",
     "vorhersage": "When visible, they will still need to choose an entertaining next stop and reroute the Uber, likely for several minutes.",
     "reasoning": "The group has repeatedly changed plans after the Color Factory was found closed and Times Square was rejected as overstimulating. The destination decision is still active at 48:15, so it is unlikely to disappear during the card's latency. Earlier discussion shows they prefer an indoor or visually interesting attraction, but the driver has now introduced nearby sightseeing alternatives. A concise choice card can reduce continued debate without inventing travel times or availability.",
     "risiko": "Annoying or wrong if the driver or group has already agreed on another destination before the card appears.",
     "konfidenz": 0.86,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Reroute to Sugar Factory",
       "verworfen_weil": "They remain unsure whether it matches their expectations and had already questioned its distance."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Recontact the Sex Museum",
       "verworfen_weil": "The venue already rejected filming and the group was removed."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Open nearby attractions search",
       "verworfen_weil": "A broad search would prolong the indecision instead of offering actionable choices."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [
      "DUMBO",
      "Brooklyn Bridge",
      "Little Italy"
     ],
     "karte": true,
     "kategorie": "place",
     "titel": "Choose Next Stop",
     "zeile": "Pick a destination and reroute the Uber.",
     "aktion": "Set the Uber destination to the selected place.",
     "haltbar_s": 300,
     "grund": "The group is actively searching for a replacement destination and needs a durable decision while already in transit.",
     "verdict": "repeat",
     "need": "place",
     "need_start": 2560
    },
    "google/gemini-3.8-flash": {
     "lat": 21.7,
     "visible_at": 2936.7,
     "cost": 0.025224,
     "raw": "{\"beobachtung\": \"Marlon and the group are riding in an Uber, casually asking the driver for city recommendations and tossing out random ideas like Sugar Factory, Dumbo, and Wax Museum [0:46:20]-[0:48:15].\", \"reasoning\": \"The 'aufbruch' filter is a false positive triggered by talk of destinations; the group departed their previous location over 15 minutes ago and is already en route. They are in the middle of an entertaining dialogue with the driver, rapidly jumping between topics and jokes. Showing a destination recommendation or navigation card right now would be intrusive and likely obsolete before Marlon even looks down at his phone. There is no confirmed booking, task, or durable need established yet.\", \"alternativen\": [{\"karte\": \"Indoor activity recommendations (Beat The Bomb, Sugar Factory, Wax Museum)\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"The group is brainstorming casually as stream banter with the driver rather than seeking an external itinerary; a card would disrupt their conversation.\"}], \"karte\": false, \"grund\": \"The group is already mid-ride in an Uber having an active conversation with the driver, so the departure signal is a false positive and no actionable need exists.\"}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "Marlon and the group are riding in an Uber, casually asking the driver for city recommendations and tossing out random ideas like Sugar Factory, Dumbo, and Wax Museum [0:46:20]-[0:48:15].",
     "vorhersage": "",
     "reasoning": "The 'aufbruch' filter is a false positive triggered by talk of destinations; the group departed their previous location over 15 minutes ago and is already en route. They are in the middle of an entertaining dialogue with the driver, rapidly jumping between topics and jokes. Showing a destination recommendation or navigation card right now would be intrusive and likely obsolete before Marlon even looks down at his phone. There is no confirmed booking, task, or durable need established yet.",
     "risiko": "",
     "konfidenz": null,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Indoor activity recommendations (Beat The Bomb, Sugar Factory, Wax Museum)",
       "verworfen_weil": "The group is brainstorming casually as stream banter with the driver rather than seeking an external itinerary; a card would disrupt their conversation."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [],
     "verdict": "silent",
     "karte": false,
     "grund": "The group is already mid-ride in an Uber having an active conversation with the driver, so the departure signal is a false positive and no actionable need exists."
    },
    "openai/gpt-5.6-sol": {
     "lat": 12.6,
     "visible_at": 2927.6,
     "cost": 0.0511635,
     "raw": "{\"beobachtung\":\"[0:47:31] Speaker 1: “What do you guys want to do? Uh, just something entertaining, something fun.” [0:48:15] Speaker 4: “Wax factory? Wax museum?”\",\"vorhersage\":\"They will still need to choose and verify their next stop for roughly three minutes while the Uber route remains unsettled.\",\"reasoning\":\"The group has been changing destinations since learning the Color Factory is closed, and Sugar Factory was considered too far. A card now can consolidate the live options and check open status, travel time, and filming rules before another reroute. The latency may allow the wax museum discussion to advance, but the broader destination decision has already persisted for several minutes. Earlier, filming restrictions caused them to be removed from the prior museum, so access rules matter alongside proximity.\",\"alternativen\":[{\"karte\":\"Open directions to the wax museum\",\"verworfen_weil\":\"They have only floated it as an option and may choose another destination.\"},{\"karte\":\"Show DUMBO photo spot\",\"verworfen_weil\":\"They asked for an entertaining indoor activity, and DUMBO may not fit.\"}],\"karte\":true,\"kategorie\":\"place\",\"titel\":\"Choose The Next Stop\",\"zeile\":\"Compare open status, travel time, and filming rules before rerouting.\",\"aktion\":\"Opens a live comparison of the three destination options from their current route.\",\"optionen\":[\"Wax museum\",\"DUMBO photo stop\",\"Keep Sugar Factory\"],\"haltbar_s\":180,\"konfidenz\":0.78,\"risiko\":\"It would be annoying if they finalize a destination before the card appears.\",\"grund\":\"Their destination remains unresolved, and a verified comparison can prevent another wasted reroute.\"}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "[0:47:31] Speaker 1: “What do you guys want to do? Uh, just something entertaining, something fun.” [0:48:15] Speaker 4: “Wax factory? Wax museum?”",
     "vorhersage": "They will still need to choose and verify their next stop for roughly three minutes while the Uber route remains unsettled.",
     "reasoning": "The group has been changing destinations since learning the Color Factory is closed, and Sugar Factory was considered too far. A card now can consolidate the live options and check open status, travel time, and filming rules before another reroute. The latency may allow the wax museum discussion to advance, but the broader destination decision has already persisted for several minutes. Earlier, filming restrictions caused them to be removed from the prior museum, so access rules matter alongside proximity.",
     "risiko": "It would be annoying if they finalize a destination before the card appears.",
     "konfidenz": 0.78,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Open directions to the wax museum",
       "verworfen_weil": "They have only floated it as an option and may choose another destination."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Show DUMBO photo spot",
       "verworfen_weil": "They asked for an entertaining indoor activity, and DUMBO may not fit."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [
      "Wax museum",
      "DUMBO photo stop",
      "Keep Sugar Factory"
     ],
     "karte": true,
     "kategorie": "place",
     "titel": "Choose The Next Stop",
     "zeile": "Compare open status, travel time, and filming rules before rerouting.",
     "aktion": "Opens a live comparison of the three destination options from their current route.",
     "haltbar_s": 180,
     "grund": "Their destination remains unresolved, and a verified comparison can prevent another wasted reroute.",
     "verdict": "repeat",
     "need": "place",
     "need_start": 2560
    },
    "moonshotai/kimi-k3": {
     "lat": 50.2,
     "visible_at": 2965.2,
     "cost": 0.100908,
     "raw": "{\n \"beobachtung\": \"[0:47:31] Speaker 4: 'You're going to Sugar Factory, right?' Speaker 1: 'Uh, this is right now the Sugar Factory, but you know, we'll probably find another factory.' Plus [0:46:04] Marlon: 'Can we go somewhere a little closer?' and [0:48:15] 'Wax factory? Wax museum?'\",\n \"vorhersage\": \"When the card appears (~48:40-49:00) the group will still be in the Uber with no agreed destination and the driver waiting for a final answer. The indecision has run since ~42:40 (Color Factory closed) and will likely persist several more minutes until someone commits and the driver reroutes.\",\n \"reasoning\": \"Now is the right moment because the destination is actively open: Sugar Factory turned out far, Color Factory is closed, Fitness Factory is ambiguous, and the driver just pitched Dumbo while the Wax Museum came back up at 48:15. Earlier in the stream they already burned one reroute (Color Factory) and got kicked out of the Sex Museum, so a consolidated comparison prevents a third failed guess. The latency of 10-30s is safe because this debate has lasted six minutes and involves the driver, not a sub-30-second phone glance. Later the card becomes moot the moment they commit, but nothing in the last minute suggests a decision is landing. A silent card also avoids interrupting the driver conversation.\",\n \"alternativen\": [{\"karte\": \"Reply to Oct with an ETA for later\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"Depends on the destination being chosen first; not actionable until this decision lands.\"}, {\"karte\": \"Follow-up: Sex Museum manager approval pending\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"Pure passive wait for a text back; no action possible right now.\"}, {\"karte\": \"Book Color Factory tickets\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"Venue appears closed and the group has moved on.\"}],\n \"karte\": true,\n \"kategorie\": \"place\",\n \"titel\": \"Still no destination — pick one\",\n \"zeile\": \"Driver is waiting: compare live ETA and open status for the shortlist, tap to reroute.\",\n \"aktion\": \"Opens a Maps side-by-side of the three candidates with live drive times and current open status from the car's position; choosing one sets it as the Uber destination.\",\n \"optionen\": [\"Sugar Factory (current route)\", \"Dumbo / Brooklyn Bridge\", \"Wax Museum, Times Square\"],\n \"haltbar_s\": 240,\n \"konfidenz\": 0.65,\n \"risiko\": \"Wrong if they already committed to a spot in the last 30 seconds or the driver settles it; card must show live open status rather than assert it, since Fitness Factory/Color Factory status was contradictory.\",\n \"grund\": \"The Uber is mid-route with no agreed destination and the driver is explicitly waiting for an answer, so a silent comparison card directly serves the open decision.\"\n}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "[0:47:31] Speaker 4: 'You're going to Sugar Factory, right?' Speaker 1: 'Uh, this is right now the Sugar Factory, but you know, we'll probably find another factory.' Plus [0:46:04] Marlon: 'Can we go somewhere a little closer?' and [0:48:15] 'Wax factory? Wax museum?'",
     "vorhersage": "When the card appears (~48:40-49:00) the group will still be in the Uber with no agreed destination and the driver waiting for a final answer. The indecision has run since ~42:40 (Color Factory closed) and will likely persist several more minutes until someone commits and the driver reroutes.",
     "reasoning": "Now is the right moment because the destination is actively open: Sugar Factory turned out far, Color Factory is closed, Fitness Factory is ambiguous, and the driver just pitched Dumbo while the Wax Museum came back up at 48:15. Earlier in the stream they already burned one reroute (Color Factory) and got kicked out of the Sex Museum, so a consolidated comparison prevents a third failed guess. The latency of 10-30s is safe because this debate has lasted six minutes and involves the driver, not a sub-30-second phone glance. Later the card becomes moot the moment they commit, but nothing in the last minute suggests a decision is landing. A silent card also avoids interrupting the driver conversation.",
     "risiko": "Wrong if they already committed to a spot in the last 30 seconds or the driver settles it; card must show live open status rather than assert it, since Fitness Factory/Color Factory status was contradictory.",
     "konfidenz": 0.65,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Reply to Oct with an ETA for later",
       "verworfen_weil": "Depends on the destination being chosen first; not actionable until this decision lands."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Follow-up: Sex Museum manager approval pending",
       "verworfen_weil": "Pure passive wait for a text back; no action possible right now."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Book Color Factory tickets",
       "verworfen_weil": "Venue appears closed and the group has moved on."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [
      "Sugar Factory (current route)",
      "Dumbo / Brooklyn Bridge",
      "Wax Museum, Times Square"
     ],
     "karte": true,
     "kategorie": "place",
     "titel": "Still no destination — pick one",
     "zeile": "Driver is waiting: compare live ETA and open status for the shortlist, tap to reroute.",
     "aktion": "Opens a Maps side-by-side of the three candidates with live drive times and current open status from the car's position; choosing one sets it as the Uber destination.",
     "haltbar_s": 240,
     "grund": "The Uber is mid-route with no agreed destination and the driver is explicitly waiting for an answer, so a silent comparison card directly serves the open decision.",
     "verdict": "hit",
     "need": "place",
     "need_start": 2560
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "t": 2970,
   "signal": "aufbruch",
   "conf": 0.65,
   "seen_until": 2955,
   "models": {
    "deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash": {
     "lat": 5.8,
     "visible_at": 2980.8,
     "cost": 0.00270127,
     "raw": "{\n  \"beobachtung\": \"[0:48:52] Marlon: 'No way they have a hamburger and fries factory. Swear to God.' — followed by [0:48:59] Speaker 4: 'It's called the Madame Tussauds.' and [0:49:07] Speaker 1: 'I'm gonna change it to that then.'\",\n  \"vorhersage\": \"The group is in an Uber and has just verbally committed to Madame Tussauds (wax museum) as the next destination. They will need the driver to reroute and will need tickets/opening info for the next 5-15 minutes while the ride continues.\",\n  \"reasoning\": \"The pre-filter 'aufbruch' fired because the group is actively changing destinations mid-ride. The transcript shows a clear pivot from Color Factory (closed) to Madame Tussauds, with Speaker 1 saying they will change the Uber destination. This is a booking/place need that lasts longer than 30 seconds — they still need to confirm the reroute and likely buy tickets. Earlier in the stream they were kicked out of the Sex Museum and have been struggling to find an open attraction, so a card confirming Madame Tussauds details is timely. The latency means the card will appear while they are still in the Uber, which is exactly when they need it.\",\n  \"alternativen\": [\n    {\"karte\": \"Sugar Factory info card\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"They already decided against it and rerouted away; the need no longer exists.\"},\n    {\"karte\": \"Color Factory closed notice\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"They already discovered it's closed and moved on; no action needed.\"}\n  ],\n  \"karte\": true,\n  \"kategorie\": \"place\",\n  \"titel\": \"Madame Tussauds NYC\",\n  \"zeile\": \"Wax museum on 42nd St — confirm tickets and hours\",\n  \"aktion\": \"Open Madame Tussauds NYC page with hours and ticket options\",\n  \"optionen\": [\"Get tickets\", \"Check hours\", \"Directions\"],\n  \"haltbar_s\": 600,\n  \"konfidenz\": 0.82,\n  \"risiko\": \"If they change their mind again or the driver reroutes elsewhere, this card becomes irrelevant.\",\n  \"grund\": \"The group just committed to Madame Tussauds as their next stop and needs booking/hours info while still in the Uber.\"\n}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "[0:48:52] Marlon: 'No way they have a hamburger and fries factory. Swear to God.' — followed by [0:48:59] Speaker 4: 'It's called the Madame Tussauds.' and [0:49:07] Speaker 1: 'I'm gonna change it to that then.'",
     "vorhersage": "The group is in an Uber and has just verbally committed to Madame Tussauds (wax museum) as the next destination. They will need the driver to reroute and will need tickets/opening info for the next 5-15 minutes while the ride continues.",
     "reasoning": "The pre-filter 'aufbruch' fired because the group is actively changing destinations mid-ride. The transcript shows a clear pivot from Color Factory (closed) to Madame Tussauds, with Speaker 1 saying they will change the Uber destination. This is a booking/place need that lasts longer than 30 seconds — they still need to confirm the reroute and likely buy tickets. Earlier in the stream they were kicked out of the Sex Museum and have been struggling to find an open attraction, so a card confirming Madame Tussauds details is timely. The latency means the card will appear while they are still in the Uber, which is exactly when they need it.",
     "risiko": "If they change their mind again or the driver reroutes elsewhere, this card becomes irrelevant.",
     "konfidenz": 0.82,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Sugar Factory info card",
       "verworfen_weil": "They already decided against it and rerouted away; the need no longer exists."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Color Factory closed notice",
       "verworfen_weil": "They already discovered it's closed and moved on; no action needed."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [
      "Get tickets",
      "Check hours",
      "Directions"
     ],
     "karte": true,
     "kategorie": "place",
     "titel": "Madame Tussauds NYC",
     "zeile": "Wax museum on 42nd St — confirm tickets and hours",
     "aktion": "Open Madame Tussauds NYC page with hours and ticket options",
     "haltbar_s": 600,
     "grund": "The group just committed to Madame Tussauds as their next stop and needs booking/hours info while still in the Uber.",
     "verdict": "hit",
     "need": "place",
     "need_start": 2560
    },
    "z-ai/glm-5.3-flash": {
     "lat": 7.0,
     "visible_at": 2982.0,
     "cost": 0.0025924575,
     "raw": "{\n \"beobachtung\": \"[0:48:59] Speaker 4: \\\"It's called the Madame Tussauds.\\\" [0:49:02] Driver: \\\"That's in 42nd... it's next to it actually.\\\" [0:49:07] Speaker 1: \\\"I'm gonna change it to that then.\\\"\",\n \"vorhersage\": \"The group is rerouting the Uber to Madame Tussauds on 42nd St. Within minutes they will arrive and need to know if it's open, ticket prices/booking, and whether cameras/filming are allowed — the exact issue that got them kicked out of the sex museum.\",\n \"reasoning\": \"The decision to go to the wax museum is being made right now and the ride is short, so the need (hours, tickets, filming policy) will still exist when the card appears in 10-30 seconds. Earlier in the stream they were kicked out of a venue over filming, so a camera-policy check is directly relevant. Checking hours/tickets is a lasting task worth a card, unlike quick in-chat banter. Waiting longer risks them arriving unprepared and repeating the museum fiasco.\",\n \"alternativen\": [{\"karte\": \"Sugar Factory info check\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"They just abandoned Sugar Factory in favor of the wax museum; the need is gone.\"}, {\"karte\": \"Note Color Factory follow-up\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"It's closed and they've moved on; low value now.\"}],\n \"karte\": true,\n \"kategorie\": \"booking\",\n \"titel\": \"Madame Tussauds: hours & tickets\",\n \"zeile\": \"Check opening hours, tickets and camera policy before arrival\",\n \"aktion\": \"Open Madame Tussauds NYC info (hours, tickets, camera policy)\",\n \"optionen\": [\"Check opening hours\", \"Check ticket prices\", \"Check camera policy\"],\n \"haltbar_s\": 300,\n \"konfidenz\": 0.72,\n \"risiko\": \"Annoying if they change destination again mid-ride, as they did twice already (Sugar Factory, Color Factory), or if someone in the car already looked it up.\",\n \"grund\": \"The group just committed to Madame Tussauds and will need hours, tickets and filming rules within minutes of arrival.\"\n}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "[0:48:59] Speaker 4: \"It's called the Madame Tussauds.\" [0:49:02] Driver: \"That's in 42nd... it's next to it actually.\" [0:49:07] Speaker 1: \"I'm gonna change it to that then.\"",
     "vorhersage": "The group is rerouting the Uber to Madame Tussauds on 42nd St. Within minutes they will arrive and need to know if it's open, ticket prices/booking, and whether cameras/filming are allowed — the exact issue that got them kicked out of the sex museum.",
     "reasoning": "The decision to go to the wax museum is being made right now and the ride is short, so the need (hours, tickets, filming policy) will still exist when the card appears in 10-30 seconds. Earlier in the stream they were kicked out of a venue over filming, so a camera-policy check is directly relevant. Checking hours/tickets is a lasting task worth a card, unlike quick in-chat banter. Waiting longer risks them arriving unprepared and repeating the museum fiasco.",
     "risiko": "Annoying if they change destination again mid-ride, as they did twice already (Sugar Factory, Color Factory), or if someone in the car already looked it up.",
     "konfidenz": 0.72,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Sugar Factory info check",
       "verworfen_weil": "They just abandoned Sugar Factory in favor of the wax museum; the need is gone."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Note Color Factory follow-up",
       "verworfen_weil": "It's closed and they've moved on; low value now."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [
      "Check opening hours",
      "Check ticket prices",
      "Check camera policy"
     ],
     "karte": true,
     "kategorie": "booking",
     "titel": "Madame Tussauds: hours & tickets",
     "zeile": "Check opening hours, tickets and camera policy before arrival",
     "aktion": "Open Madame Tussauds NYC info (hours, tickets, camera policy)",
     "haltbar_s": 300,
     "grund": "The group just committed to Madame Tussauds and will need hours, tickets and filming rules within minutes of arrival.",
     "verdict": "late",
     "late_by": 422,
     "need": "booking",
     "need_start": 1949
    },
    "openai/gpt-5.6-luna": {
     "lat": 9.3,
     "visible_at": 2984.3,
     "cost": 0.0055838,
     "raw": "{\n  \"beobachtung\": \"At 49:02–49:13, the group agrees on Madame Tussauds and says, \\\"I'm gonna change it to that then\\\" and \\\"we're going.\\\"\",\n  \"vorhersage\": \"When visible, they will still need to verify the correct wax museum, destination, hours, and ticket options during the ride and visit.\",\n  \"reasoning\": \"The group has repeatedly confused or abandoned venues, including the closed Color Factory and uncertain Sugar Factory. Madame Tussauds is now the active plan, so a verified place card remains useful after the latency. The Uber destination may already be changing, but venue details and tickets will still matter on arrival. Earlier in the stream, they were kicked out of the Sex Museum and were looking for an entertaining indoor replacement.\",\n  \"alternativen\": [\n    {\n      \"karte\": \"Reroute to Madame Tussauds\",\n      \"verworfen_weil\": \"They are already changing the Uber destination themselves.\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"karte\": \"Sugar Factory options\",\n      \"verworfen_weil\": \"They moved away from it because the destination and experience were unclear.\"\n    }\n  ],\n  \"karte\": true,\n  \"kategorie\": \"place\",\n  \"titel\": \"Madame Tussauds NYC\",\n  \"zeile\": \"Verified wax museum near Times Square\",\n  \"aktion\": \"Open verified venue details\",\n  \"optionen\": [\n    \"Open directions\",\n    \"Check tickets\",\n    \"Save destination\"\n  ],\n  \"haltbar_s\": 1800,\n  \"konfidenz\": 0.9,\n  \"risiko\": \"Annoying if the Uber destination is already set and they only want to continue without checking tickets or venue details.\",\n  \"grund\": \"The group has finally selected a specific venue after several failed or confusing alternatives.\"\n}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "At 49:02–49:13, the group agrees on Madame Tussauds and says, \"I'm gonna change it to that then\" and \"we're going.\"",
     "vorhersage": "When visible, they will still need to verify the correct wax museum, destination, hours, and ticket options during the ride and visit.",
     "reasoning": "The group has repeatedly confused or abandoned venues, including the closed Color Factory and uncertain Sugar Factory. Madame Tussauds is now the active plan, so a verified place card remains useful after the latency. The Uber destination may already be changing, but venue details and tickets will still matter on arrival. Earlier in the stream, they were kicked out of the Sex Museum and were looking for an entertaining indoor replacement.",
     "risiko": "Annoying if the Uber destination is already set and they only want to continue without checking tickets or venue details.",
     "konfidenz": 0.9,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Reroute to Madame Tussauds",
       "verworfen_weil": "They are already changing the Uber destination themselves."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Sugar Factory options",
       "verworfen_weil": "They moved away from it because the destination and experience were unclear."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [
      "Open directions",
      "Check tickets",
      "Save destination"
     ],
     "karte": true,
     "kategorie": "place",
     "titel": "Madame Tussauds NYC",
     "zeile": "Verified wax museum near Times Square",
     "aktion": "Open verified venue details",
     "haltbar_s": 1800,
     "grund": "The group has finally selected a specific venue after several failed or confusing alternatives.",
     "verdict": "hit",
     "need": "place",
     "need_start": 2560
    },
    "google/gemini-3.8-flash": {
     "lat": 15.7,
     "visible_at": 2990.7,
     "cost": 0.02195325,
     "raw": "{\n \"beobachtung\": \"Speaker 1 decides 'I'm gonna change it to that then' [Madame Tussauds] at 0:49:07, followed immediately by Speaker 4 mentioning 'There is an ice cream factory, they're saying' at 0:49:15.\",\n \"reasoning\": \"The group has cycled through Sugar Factory, Color Factory, Fitness Factory, Madame Tussauds, and Museum of Ice Cream all within three minutes while bantering in the Uber. Speaker 1 is actively controlling the Uber app and changing stops on the fly, while the driver already knows where 42nd Street is. Intervening with tickets or venue info for Madame Tussauds risks immediate obsolescence given their rapid mind-changing.\",\n \"alternativen\": [\n  {\n   \"karte\": \"Madame Tussauds NYC admission info and tickets\",\n   \"verworfen_weil\": \"The group frequently pivots ideas within seconds and hasn't committed to entering or buying tickets yet.\"\n  },\n  {\n   \"karte\": \"Museum of Ice Cream location and hours\",\n   \"verworfen_weil\": \"Just an offhand comment reading stream chat, not an agreed plan.\"\n  }\n ],\n \"karte\": false,\n \"grund\": \"The group is rapidly cycling through destinations in the Uber without a settled plan or explicit request.\"\n}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "Speaker 1 decides 'I'm gonna change it to that then' [Madame Tussauds] at 0:49:07, followed immediately by Speaker 4 mentioning 'There is an ice cream factory, they're saying' at 0:49:15.",
     "vorhersage": "",
     "reasoning": "The group has cycled through Sugar Factory, Color Factory, Fitness Factory, Madame Tussauds, and Museum of Ice Cream all within three minutes while bantering in the Uber. Speaker 1 is actively controlling the Uber app and changing stops on the fly, while the driver already knows where 42nd Street is. Intervening with tickets or venue info for Madame Tussauds risks immediate obsolescence given their rapid mind-changing.",
     "risiko": "",
     "konfidenz": null,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Madame Tussauds NYC admission info and tickets",
       "verworfen_weil": "The group frequently pivots ideas within seconds and hasn't committed to entering or buying tickets yet."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Museum of Ice Cream location and hours",
       "verworfen_weil": "Just an offhand comment reading stream chat, not an agreed plan."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [],
     "verdict": "silent",
     "karte": false,
     "grund": "The group is rapidly cycling through destinations in the Uber without a settled plan or explicit request."
    },
    "openai/gpt-5.6-sol": {
     "lat": 9.5,
     "visible_at": 2984.5,
     "cost": 0.051626,
     "raw": "{\"beobachtung\":\"[0:49:02] Driver: “Okay, we're going.” [0:49:07] Speaker 1: “I'm gonna change it to that then.”\",\"vorhersage\":\"The group will need Madame Tussauds NYC admission details or tickets during the ride and upon arrival, likely for 10–20 minutes.\",\"reasoning\":\"They have finally selected the wax museum after several abandoned destinations and are rerouting the Uber now. Opening the official venue page can support ticket purchase and confirm entry details before arrival. With the display latency, the destination should already be set when the card appears, so it is more useful now than during the earlier debate. The plan remains somewhat volatile because they have rerouted repeatedly, but this is their clearest agreement so far.\",\"alternativen\":[{\"karte\":\"Sugar Factory details\",\"verworfen_weil\":\"It was replaced by the explicit decision to visit the wax museum.\"},{\"karte\":\"Ice cream factory search\",\"verworfen_weil\":\"It is only a passing suggestion after the group committed to Madame Tussauds.\"}],\"karte\":true,\"kategorie\":\"booking\",\"titel\":\"Madame Tussauds NYC\",\"zeile\":\"Check official tickets and entry details before arrival.\",\"aktion\":\"Open the official Madame Tussauds New York visitor page.\",\"optionen\":[\"Tickets\",\"Hours\",\"Directions\"],\"haltbar_s\":900,\"konfidenz\":0.79,\"risiko\":\"The card becomes irrelevant if they reroute again or someone already buys tickets.\",\"grund\":\"Their destination is now Madame Tussauds, making admission planning useful throughout the remaining ride.\"}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "[0:49:02] Driver: “Okay, we're going.” [0:49:07] Speaker 1: “I'm gonna change it to that then.”",
     "vorhersage": "The group will need Madame Tussauds NYC admission details or tickets during the ride and upon arrival, likely for 10–20 minutes.",
     "reasoning": "They have finally selected the wax museum after several abandoned destinations and are rerouting the Uber now. Opening the official venue page can support ticket purchase and confirm entry details before arrival. With the display latency, the destination should already be set when the card appears, so it is more useful now than during the earlier debate. The plan remains somewhat volatile because they have rerouted repeatedly, but this is their clearest agreement so far.",
     "risiko": "The card becomes irrelevant if they reroute again or someone already buys tickets.",
     "konfidenz": 0.79,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Sugar Factory details",
       "verworfen_weil": "It was replaced by the explicit decision to visit the wax museum."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Ice cream factory search",
       "verworfen_weil": "It is only a passing suggestion after the group committed to Madame Tussauds."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [
      "Tickets",
      "Hours",
      "Directions"
     ],
     "karte": true,
     "kategorie": "booking",
     "titel": "Madame Tussauds NYC",
     "zeile": "Check official tickets and entry details before arrival.",
     "aktion": "Open the official Madame Tussauds New York visitor page.",
     "haltbar_s": 900,
     "grund": "Their destination is now Madame Tussauds, making admission planning useful throughout the remaining ride.",
     "verdict": "late",
     "late_by": 424,
     "need": "booking",
     "need_start": 1949
    },
    "moonshotai/kimi-k3": {
     "lat": 39.3,
     "visible_at": 3014.3,
     "cost": 0.08898,
     "raw": "{\n \"beobachtung\": \"[0:48:59] Speaker 4: 'It's called the Madame Tussauds.' · [0:49:07] Speaker 1: 'I'm gonna change it to that then.' · [0:49:11] Driver: 'Yeah, that's a wax museum, that's what you're talking about, right?' · [0:49:13] Speaker 1: 'Yeah, wax.'\",\n \"vorhersage\": \"When the card appears (~49:40-50:00) the group is still in the Uber, about a mile from Madame Tussauds, having just locked it in after two failed venues. They will need to confirm it is actually open today and whether timed tickets are required; this need lasts until they are inside, roughly 15-30 minutes.\",\n \"reasoning\": \"The destination was only finalized seconds ago, so the need is fresh and not yet handled by anyone on their own phone. Earlier in the stream they were kicked out of the Sex Museum and then found the Color Factory closed, so verifying open status and entry requirements before arrival directly prevents a third wasted stop. The latency works in our favor: the card lands while they are still en route, about a mile out, leaving time to book tickets or pivot. Waiting longer would make the card useless because they arrive within minutes. The driver only confirmed the location, not hours or ticketing, so the information gap is real.\",\n \"alternativen\": [\n  {\"karte\": \"Sugar Factory details and route\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"The group dropped it and explicitly switched the Uber to the wax museum.\"},\n  {\"karte\": \"Transport card for the Uber reroute\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"They are already in the Uber and the driver knows the destination on 42nd.\"},\n  {\"karte\": \"Color Factory other locations\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"Other venues are in Houston and Chicago, irrelevant for today's NYC stream.\"}\n ],\n \"karte\": true,\n \"kategorie\": \"place\",\n \"titel\": \"Madame Tussauds New York\",\n \"zeile\": \"Confirm today's hours and book tickets before you arrive.\",\n \"aktion\": \"Opens the venue page with today's opening hours and ticket booking.\",\n \"optionen\": [\"Check opening hours\", \"Book tickets now\", \"Call venue\"],\n \"haltbar_s\": 1500,\n \"konfidenz\": 0.72,\n \"risiko\": \"Annoying if someone already checked hours or booked on their own phone, or if the group impulsively changes destination yet again.\",\n \"grund\": \"The group just committed to Madame Tussauds after two venue failures, so confirming hours and tickets en route prevents a third wasted stop.\"\n}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "[0:48:59] Speaker 4: 'It's called the Madame Tussauds.' · [0:49:07] Speaker 1: 'I'm gonna change it to that then.' · [0:49:11] Driver: 'Yeah, that's a wax museum, that's what you're talking about, right?' · [0:49:13] Speaker 1: 'Yeah, wax.'",
     "vorhersage": "When the card appears (~49:40-50:00) the group is still in the Uber, about a mile from Madame Tussauds, having just locked it in after two failed venues. They will need to confirm it is actually open today and whether timed tickets are required; this need lasts until they are inside, roughly 15-30 minutes.",
     "reasoning": "The destination was only finalized seconds ago, so the need is fresh and not yet handled by anyone on their own phone. Earlier in the stream they were kicked out of the Sex Museum and then found the Color Factory closed, so verifying open status and entry requirements before arrival directly prevents a third wasted stop. The latency works in our favor: the card lands while they are still en route, about a mile out, leaving time to book tickets or pivot. Waiting longer would make the card useless because they arrive within minutes. The driver only confirmed the location, not hours or ticketing, so the information gap is real.",
     "risiko": "Annoying if someone already checked hours or booked on their own phone, or if the group impulsively changes destination yet again.",
     "konfidenz": 0.72,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Sugar Factory details and route",
       "verworfen_weil": "The group dropped it and explicitly switched the Uber to the wax museum."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Transport card for the Uber reroute",
       "verworfen_weil": "They are already in the Uber and the driver knows the destination on 42nd."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Color Factory other locations",
       "verworfen_weil": "Other venues are in Houston and Chicago, irrelevant for today's NYC stream."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [
      "Check opening hours",
      "Book tickets now",
      "Call venue"
     ],
     "karte": true,
     "kategorie": "place",
     "titel": "Madame Tussauds New York",
     "zeile": "Confirm today's hours and book tickets before you arrive.",
     "aktion": "Opens the venue page with today's opening hours and ticket booking.",
     "haltbar_s": 1500,
     "grund": "The group just committed to Madame Tussauds after two venue failures, so confirming hours and tickets en route prevents a third wasted stop.",
     "verdict": "hit",
     "need": "place",
     "need_start": 2560
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "t": 3030,
   "signal": "aufbruch",
   "conf": 0.8,
   "seen_until": 3015,
   "models": {
    "deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash": {
     "lat": 10.7,
     "visible_at": 3045.7,
     "cost": 0.00277576,
     "raw": "{\n  \"beobachtung\": \"[0:49:59] Speaker 1: 'So let me guess, we going to the ice cream museum?' and [0:50:04] 'Beat the bomb? What is beat the bomb?' — the group is still undecided on a destination while sitting in a moving Uber.\",\n  \"vorhersage\": \"The group will keep debating destinations for at least the next few minutes; the Uber is already rerouted once and the driver needs a concrete address. The need for a shortlist of nearby, open, bookable options persists well past card visibility.\",\n  \"reasoning\": \"The pre-filter 'aufbruch' fired, but the group is not actually departing anywhere specific — they are mid-debate inside the Uber with no confirmed destination. Color Factory turned out closed, Sugar Factory is far, and they are now cycling through Wax Museum, Ice Cream Museum, Beat the Bomb, and Illusion Place. This is exactly the long-lasting 'place to find / thing to book' need that a card helps with, and it will still exist 10–30 seconds from now. Earlier in the stream they were kicked out of the Sex Museum and have been improvising all day, so a curated shortlist of open nearby options is genuinely useful rather than noise.\",\n  \"alternativen\": [\n    {\"karte\": \"Follow-up: call Sex Museum manager for re-entry\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"Jason is already handling that via email/text; no action needed from Marlon right now.\"},\n    {\"karte\": \"Note idea: 'world's first vibrator' segment for later content\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"Interesting but not urgent; the group is focused on the immediate destination problem.\"}\n  ],\n  \"karte\": true,\n  \"kategorie\": \"place\",\n  \"titel\": \"Nearby open attractions shortlist\",\n  \"zeile\": \"Wax Museum, Ice Cream Museum, Beat the Bomb — check hours\",\n  \"aktion\": \"Opens a shortlist of nearby attractions with live open/closed status and one-tap Uber reroute.\",\n  \"optionen\": [\"Madame Tussauds Wax Museum\", \"Museum of Ice Cream\", \"Beat the Bomb\"],\n  \"haltbar_s\": 300,\n  \"konfidenz\": 0.72,\n  \"risiko\": \"Annoying if the group has already locked in the Wax Museum by the time the card appears, or if they prefer to keep freestyle debating without a screen.\",\n  \"grund\": \"The group is actively choosing a destination inside a moving Uber and needs open, nearby options before the driver commits to a route.\"\n}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "[0:49:59] Speaker 1: 'So let me guess, we going to the ice cream museum?' and [0:50:04] 'Beat the bomb? What is beat the bomb?' — the group is still undecided on a destination while sitting in a moving Uber.",
     "vorhersage": "The group will keep debating destinations for at least the next few minutes; the Uber is already rerouted once and the driver needs a concrete address. The need for a shortlist of nearby, open, bookable options persists well past card visibility.",
     "reasoning": "The pre-filter 'aufbruch' fired, but the group is not actually departing anywhere specific — they are mid-debate inside the Uber with no confirmed destination. Color Factory turned out closed, Sugar Factory is far, and they are now cycling through Wax Museum, Ice Cream Museum, Beat the Bomb, and Illusion Place. This is exactly the long-lasting 'place to find / thing to book' need that a card helps with, and it will still exist 10–30 seconds from now. Earlier in the stream they were kicked out of the Sex Museum and have been improvising all day, so a curated shortlist of open nearby options is genuinely useful rather than noise.",
     "risiko": "Annoying if the group has already locked in the Wax Museum by the time the card appears, or if they prefer to keep freestyle debating without a screen.",
     "konfidenz": 0.72,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Follow-up: call Sex Museum manager for re-entry",
       "verworfen_weil": "Jason is already handling that via email/text; no action needed from Marlon right now."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Note idea: 'world's first vibrator' segment for later content",
       "verworfen_weil": "Interesting but not urgent; the group is focused on the immediate destination problem."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [
      "Madame Tussauds Wax Museum",
      "Museum of Ice Cream",
      "Beat the Bomb"
     ],
     "karte": true,
     "kategorie": "place",
     "titel": "Nearby open attractions shortlist",
     "zeile": "Wax Museum, Ice Cream Museum, Beat the Bomb — check hours",
     "aktion": "Opens a shortlist of nearby attractions with live open/closed status and one-tap Uber reroute.",
     "haltbar_s": 300,
     "grund": "The group is actively choosing a destination inside a moving Uber and needs open, nearby options before the driver commits to a route.",
     "verdict": "late",
     "late_by": 11,
     "need": "place",
     "need_start": 2560
    },
    "z-ai/glm-5.3-flash": {
     "lat": 61.6,
     "visible_at": 3096.6,
     "cost": 0.000750725,
     "raw": "{\n  \"beobachtung\": \"[0:45:35] Marlon: 'Sugar Factory still option out there?' / [0:46:10] 'I'm gonna just type in the word factory on the Google, maybe something will pop up.' / [0:47:31] Speaker 1: 'we'll probably find another factory' / [0:50:05] Speaker 4: 'Someone in the chat said go to the illusion.' / [0:50:12] 'The Illusion Factory?'\",\n  \"vorhersage\": \"Group is in the Uber with no settled destination; when the card appears (~50:40-50:55) they will still be weighing Sugar Factory vs alternatives and may want quick info on candidate spots.\",\n  \"reasoning\": \"The destination is genuinely unresolved: Marlon doubts Sugar Factory is more than a candy store, and chat just suggested an illusion museum which Marlon finds interesting. The need will persist for the rest of the ride, so the latency is tolerable. A card offering quick lookups for the candidates saves them fumbling with Google Maps on stream. It would be wrong if they commit to a spot in the next 30 seconds or if the driver's city tour suggestion takes over.\",\n  \"kategorie\": \"place\",\n  \"optionen\": [\"Check Illusion museum\", \"Check Sugar Factory\", \"Dumbo photo spot\"],\n  \"haltbar_s\": 420,\n  \"risiko\": \"Annoying if they have already picked a destination by the time the card shows, or if they prefer asking the driver/chat rather than a card.\"\n}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "[0:45:35] Marlon: 'Sugar Factory still option out there?' / [0:46:10] 'I'm gonna just type in the word factory on the Google, maybe something will pop up.' / [0:47:31] Speaker 1: 'we'll probably find another factory' / [0:50:05] Speaker 4: 'Someone in the chat said go to the illusion.' / [0:50:12] 'The Illusion Factory?'",
     "vorhersage": "Group is in the Uber with no settled destination; when the card appears (~50:40-50:55) they will still be weighing Sugar Factory vs alternatives and may want quick info on candidate spots.",
     "reasoning": "The destination is genuinely unresolved: Marlon doubts Sugar Factory is more than a candy store, and chat just suggested an illusion museum which Marlon finds interesting. The need will persist for the rest of the ride, so the latency is tolerable. A card offering quick lookups for the candidates saves them fumbling with Google Maps on stream. It would be wrong if they commit to a spot in the next 30 seconds or if the driver's city tour suggestion takes over.",
     "risiko": "Annoying if they have already picked a destination by the time the card shows, or if they prefer asking the driver/chat rather than a card.",
     "konfidenz": null,
     "alternativen": [],
     "optionen": [
      "Check Illusion museum",
      "Check Sugar Factory",
      "Dumbo photo spot"
     ],
     "verdict": "silent",
     "karte": false,
     "grund": ""
    },
    "openai/gpt-5.6-luna": {
     "lat": 8.4,
     "visible_at": 3043.4,
     "cost": 0.00562835,
     "raw": "{\n  \"beobachtung\": \"\\\"Beat the bomb? What is beat the bomb?\\\" [50:04] followed by \\\"The Illusion Place\\\" [50:05] and \\\"The Illusion Factory?\\\" [50:12]\",\n  \"vorhersage\": \"The group will still need to choose a destination and give the driver a stable route, likely for several minutes.\",\n  \"reasoning\": \"They have repeatedly changed destinations and are still brainstorming alternatives immediately before the cutoff. A decision card is useful now because the Uber is moving and indecision is causing more rerouting. The 10–30 second latency is unlikely to matter because no final destination has been clearly confirmed. Earlier they rejected or questioned several places, so a short list of already-mentioned options is safer than inventing a new venue.\",\n  \"alternativen\": [\n    {\n      \"karte\": \"Reroute Uber\",\n      \"verworfen_weil\": \"The destination is still unsettled, so rerouting now could create another unnecessary change.\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"karte\": \"Madame Tussauds directions\",\n      \"verworfen_weil\": \"They have discussed it, but the group is currently reconsidering it and has not committed.\"\n    }\n  ],\n  \"karte\": true,\n  \"kategorie\": \"place\",\n  \"titel\": \"Pick the next stop\",\n  \"zeile\": \"Choose one destination before rerouting again\",\n  \"aktion\": \"Open the selected place in Maps\",\n  \"optionen\": [\n    \"Illusion Place\",\n    \"Beat the Bomb\",\n    \"Madame Tussauds\"\n  ],\n  \"haltbar_s\": 180,\n  \"konfidenz\": 0.87,\n  \"risiko\": \"Annoying if they finalize a destination before the card appears or if an option is closed, unavailable, or too far away.\",\n  \"grund\": \"The group is actively cycling through destinations in a moving Uber and needs a durable choice rather than another suggestion.\"\n}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "\"Beat the bomb? What is beat the bomb?\" [50:04] followed by \"The Illusion Place\" [50:05] and \"The Illusion Factory?\" [50:12]",
     "vorhersage": "The group will still need to choose a destination and give the driver a stable route, likely for several minutes.",
     "reasoning": "They have repeatedly changed destinations and are still brainstorming alternatives immediately before the cutoff. A decision card is useful now because the Uber is moving and indecision is causing more rerouting. The 10–30 second latency is unlikely to matter because no final destination has been clearly confirmed. Earlier they rejected or questioned several places, so a short list of already-mentioned options is safer than inventing a new venue.",
     "risiko": "Annoying if they finalize a destination before the card appears or if an option is closed, unavailable, or too far away.",
     "konfidenz": 0.87,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Reroute Uber",
       "verworfen_weil": "The destination is still unsettled, so rerouting now could create another unnecessary change."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Madame Tussauds directions",
       "verworfen_weil": "They have discussed it, but the group is currently reconsidering it and has not committed."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [
      "Illusion Place",
      "Beat the Bomb",
      "Madame Tussauds"
     ],
     "karte": true,
     "kategorie": "place",
     "titel": "Pick the next stop",
     "zeile": "Choose one destination before rerouting again",
     "aktion": "Open the selected place in Maps",
     "haltbar_s": 180,
     "grund": "The group is actively cycling through destinations in a moving Uber and needs a durable choice rather than another suggestion.",
     "verdict": "late",
     "late_by": 8,
     "need": "place",
     "need_start": 2560
    },
    "google/gemini-3.8-flash": {
     "lat": 13.6,
     "visible_at": 3048.6,
     "cost": 0.020544,
     "raw": "{\"beobachtung\": \"At 0:49:40-0:50:15, Speaker 1 notes 'wax museum... bit of a drive, boys' and asks 'we going to the ice cream museum? Beat the bomb?... The Illusion Place.'\", \"reasoning\": \"The group has been riding in an Uber since around minute 31, and Speaker 1 is actively controlling the Uber app destination while bouncing ideas off the group. They are casually debating spots like Madame Tussauds, Museum of Ice Cream, and Museum of Illusions without consensus. Offering unsolicited venue info or bookings right now would interrupt their organic brainstorming and banter with the driver. Marlon has not requested any specific info or task.\", \"alternativen\": [{\"karte\": \"Venue guide comparing Madame Tussauds vs Museum of Ice Cream\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"Speaker 1 is already searching venues in Google/Uber, and filming restrictions or group consensus haven't been settled.\"}], \"karte\": false, \"grund\": \"The group is already in an Uber actively searching destinations on their phones, making an unprompted venue card premature and intrusive.\"}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "At 0:49:40-0:50:15, Speaker 1 notes 'wax museum... bit of a drive, boys' and asks 'we going to the ice cream museum? Beat the bomb?... The Illusion Place.'",
     "vorhersage": "",
     "reasoning": "The group has been riding in an Uber since around minute 31, and Speaker 1 is actively controlling the Uber app destination while bouncing ideas off the group. They are casually debating spots like Madame Tussauds, Museum of Ice Cream, and Museum of Illusions without consensus. Offering unsolicited venue info or bookings right now would interrupt their organic brainstorming and banter with the driver. Marlon has not requested any specific info or task.",
     "risiko": "",
     "konfidenz": null,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Venue guide comparing Madame Tussauds vs Museum of Ice Cream",
       "verworfen_weil": "Speaker 1 is already searching venues in Google/Uber, and filming restrictions or group consensus haven't been settled."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [],
     "verdict": "silent",
     "karte": false,
     "grund": "The group is already in an Uber actively searching destinations on their phones, making an unprompted venue card premature and intrusive."
    },
    "openai/gpt-5.6-sol": {
     "lat": 10.4,
     "visible_at": 3045.4,
     "cost": 0.0524835,
     "raw": "{\"beobachtung\":\"[0:49:59] Speaker 1: “So let me guess, we going to the ice cream museum?” followed by more venue suggestions through [0:50:12].\",\"reasoning\":\"The group is already comparing nearby attractions aloud while someone actively uses maps and changes the Uber destination. Their choice is likely to resolve within the card’s 10–30 second display latency, making a destination card stale or duplicative. Earlier, they repeatedly rerouted among Sugar Factory, Color Factory, and Madame Tussauds, so no venue is stable enough yet to support booking or directions.\",\"alternativen\":[{\"karte\":\"Nearby attraction comparison\",\"verworfen_weil\":\"They are already doing this in maps, and the candidate list is changing too quickly.\"},{\"karte\":\"Madame Tussauds tickets\",\"verworfen_weil\":\"They have not firmly committed to the wax museum and may reroute again before the card appears.\"}],\"karte\":false,\"grund\":\"The apparent departure signal reflects rapid destination debate, not a durable unmet need.\"}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "[0:49:59] Speaker 1: “So let me guess, we going to the ice cream museum?” followed by more venue suggestions through [0:50:12].",
     "vorhersage": "",
     "reasoning": "The group is already comparing nearby attractions aloud while someone actively uses maps and changes the Uber destination. Their choice is likely to resolve within the card’s 10–30 second display latency, making a destination card stale or duplicative. Earlier, they repeatedly rerouted among Sugar Factory, Color Factory, and Madame Tussauds, so no venue is stable enough yet to support booking or directions.",
     "risiko": "",
     "konfidenz": null,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Nearby attraction comparison",
       "verworfen_weil": "They are already doing this in maps, and the candidate list is changing too quickly."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Madame Tussauds tickets",
       "verworfen_weil": "They have not firmly committed to the wax museum and may reroute again before the card appears."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [],
     "verdict": "silent",
     "karte": false,
     "grund": "The apparent departure signal reflects rapid destination debate, not a durable unmet need."
    },
    "moonshotai/kimi-k3": {
     "lat": 42.7,
     "visible_at": 3077.7,
     "cost": 0.100812,
     "raw": "{\n \"beobachtung\": \"[0:50:00] Speaker 1: 'So let me guess, we going to the ice cream museum?' · [0:50:04] 'Beat the bomb? What is beat the bomb?' · [0:49:40] 'wax museum... bit of a drive, boys' · [0:49:07] 'I'm gonna change it to that then'\",\n \"vorhersage\": \"When the card appears (~50:40–51:00) the group is still in the moving Uber without a confirmed destination; the driver is waiting for a final answer and the wax museum vs. ice cream museum vs. Sugar Factory debate, running since ~42:40, likely continues another 3–5 minutes.\",\n \"reasoning\": \"The destination has been unresolved since the Color Factory turned out closed at 42:40, and the latest visible lines are still open questions, so the need is alive right now. Waiting longer gains nothing: the Uber is already moving and the driver keeps asking where to go, so the decision window is the next few minutes. The 10–30 s card latency is negligible against a debate that has already lasted ~8 minutes. From earlier in the stream I know Color Factory and the Illusion Place are closed and the Sex Museum refused filming, so the card only offers viable candidates. A single tap that pushes the pick into the Uber app ends the repeated reroute friction.\",\n \"alternativen\": [\n  {\"karte\": \"Reply to Oct with an ETA\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"Raised once at 0:32:37 and possibly already handled in the group chat; not the active bottleneck.\"},\n  {\"karte\": \"'Color Factory is closed' alert\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"They already confirmed it themselves via Google and a phone call at 0:45:03–0:45:35.\"},\n  {\"karte\": \"Info lookup: what is Beat the Bomb\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"A one-off question someone can answer in seconds; not worth a persistent card.\"}\n ],\n \"karte\": true,\n \"kategorie\": \"place\",\n \"titel\": \"Pick the next stop\",\n \"zeile\": \"Wax museum, ice cream or Sugar Factory — tap to set Uber destination.\",\n \"aktion\": \"Sets the chosen venue as the Uber destination and opens live hours and directions.\",\n \"optionen\": [\"Madame Tussauds – 42nd St\", \"Museum of Ice Cream – Broadway\", \"Sugar Factory – [address]\"],\n \"haltbar_s\": 240,\n \"konfidenz\": 0.72,\n \"risiko\": \"Annoying if they locked in Madame Tussauds in the last 15 seconds; the card would then feel late and redundant.\",\n \"grund\": \"The Uber is moving but the destination is still unset, so a one-tap choice ends the indecision loop.\"\n}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "[0:50:00] Speaker 1: 'So let me guess, we going to the ice cream museum?' · [0:50:04] 'Beat the bomb? What is beat the bomb?' · [0:49:40] 'wax museum... bit of a drive, boys' · [0:49:07] 'I'm gonna change it to that then'",
     "vorhersage": "When the card appears (~50:40–51:00) the group is still in the moving Uber without a confirmed destination; the driver is waiting for a final answer and the wax museum vs. ice cream museum vs. Sugar Factory debate, running since ~42:40, likely continues another 3–5 minutes.",
     "reasoning": "The destination has been unresolved since the Color Factory turned out closed at 42:40, and the latest visible lines are still open questions, so the need is alive right now. Waiting longer gains nothing: the Uber is already moving and the driver keeps asking where to go, so the decision window is the next few minutes. The 10–30 s card latency is negligible against a debate that has already lasted ~8 minutes. From earlier in the stream I know Color Factory and the Illusion Place are closed and the Sex Museum refused filming, so the card only offers viable candidates. A single tap that pushes the pick into the Uber app ends the repeated reroute friction.",
     "risiko": "Annoying if they locked in Madame Tussauds in the last 15 seconds; the card would then feel late and redundant.",
     "konfidenz": 0.72,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Reply to Oct with an ETA",
       "verworfen_weil": "Raised once at 0:32:37 and possibly already handled in the group chat; not the active bottleneck."
      },
      {
       "karte": "'Color Factory is closed' alert",
       "verworfen_weil": "They already confirmed it themselves via Google and a phone call at 0:45:03–0:45:35."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Info lookup: what is Beat the Bomb",
       "verworfen_weil": "A one-off question someone can answer in seconds; not worth a persistent card."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [
      "Madame Tussauds – 42nd St",
      "Museum of Ice Cream – Broadway",
      "Sugar Factory – [address]"
     ],
     "karte": true,
     "kategorie": "place",
     "titel": "Pick the next stop",
     "zeile": "Wax museum, ice cream or Sugar Factory — tap to set Uber destination.",
     "aktion": "Sets the chosen venue as the Uber destination and opens live hours and directions.",
     "haltbar_s": 240,
     "grund": "The Uber is moving but the destination is still unset, so a one-tap choice ends the indecision loop.",
     "verdict": "late",
     "late_by": 43,
     "need": "place",
     "need_start": 2560
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "t": 3090,
   "signal": "aufbruch",
   "conf": 0.6,
   "seen_until": 3075,
   "models": {
    "deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash": {
     "lat": 8.6,
     "visible_at": 3103.6,
     "cost": 0.00298592,
     "raw": "{\n  \"beobachtung\": \"At [0:50:25] Speaker 1: 'Museum of Illusions? Eleven minutes away. Ooh, I'm down to go to the Museum of Illusions.' and [0:50:35] 'Okay, I'm gonna change the location one more time, sir.'\",\n  \"vorhersage\": \"The group is in an Uber and has just settled on the Museum of Illusions as their destination. They will need the address, opening hours, and ticket info for the Museum of Illusions in NYC when the card becomes visible, and this need will persist for at least several minutes as they ride there and arrive.\",\n  \"reasoning\": \"The group has been indecisively cycling through destinations (Sugar Factory, Color Factory, Wax Museum, Ice Cream Museum) for the past 20 minutes, and just landed on the Museum of Illusions. This is a concrete, announced plan that will last well beyond 30 seconds. The Uber driver is rerouting, so the destination is locked in for now. A card with the address, hours, and ticket link would be immediately useful and durable. Earlier in the stream, the group repeatedly struggled with places being closed or not what they expected, so verified info is valuable.\",\n  \"alternativen\": [\n    {\n      \"karte\": \"Sugar Factory info card\",\n      \"verworfen_weil\": \"The group has moved past Sugar Factory and is now committed to Museum of Illusions.\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"karte\": \"Wax Museum (Madame Tussauds) info card\",\n      \"verworfen_weil\": \"They discussed it but chose Museum of Illusions instead.\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"karte\": \"Note the sex museum follow-up idea\",\n      \"verworfen_weil\": \"That was discussed much earlier and the group has moved on; no active need.\"\n    }\n  ],\n  \"karte\": true,\n  \"kategorie\": \"place\",\n  \"titel\": \"Museum of Illusions NYC\",\n  \"zeile\": \"Address, hours, and tickets for Museum of Illusions\",\n  \"aktion\": \"Opens Museum of Illusions NYC info with address, hours, and ticket link\",\n  \"optionen\": [\"Show address\", \"Check hours\", \"Buy tickets\"],\n  \"haltbar_s\": 600,\n  \"konfidenz\": 0.75,\n  \"risiko\": \"If the group changes destination again before the card appears, or if the Museum of Illusions is closed or not what they expect, the card would be irrelevant.\",\n  \"grund\": \"The group just committed to visiting the Museum of Illusions and will need practical info about it during the ride and on arrival.\"\n}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "At [0:50:25] Speaker 1: 'Museum of Illusions? Eleven minutes away. Ooh, I'm down to go to the Museum of Illusions.' and [0:50:35] 'Okay, I'm gonna change the location one more time, sir.'",
     "vorhersage": "The group is in an Uber and has just settled on the Museum of Illusions as their destination. They will need the address, opening hours, and ticket info for the Museum of Illusions in NYC when the card becomes visible, and this need will persist for at least several minutes as they ride there and arrive.",
     "reasoning": "The group has been indecisively cycling through destinations (Sugar Factory, Color Factory, Wax Museum, Ice Cream Museum) for the past 20 minutes, and just landed on the Museum of Illusions. This is a concrete, announced plan that will last well beyond 30 seconds. The Uber driver is rerouting, so the destination is locked in for now. A card with the address, hours, and ticket link would be immediately useful and durable. Earlier in the stream, the group repeatedly struggled with places being closed or not what they expected, so verified info is valuable.",
     "risiko": "If the group changes destination again before the card appears, or if the Museum of Illusions is closed or not what they expect, the card would be irrelevant.",
     "konfidenz": 0.75,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Sugar Factory info card",
       "verworfen_weil": "The group has moved past Sugar Factory and is now committed to Museum of Illusions."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Wax Museum (Madame Tussauds) info card",
       "verworfen_weil": "They discussed it but chose Museum of Illusions instead."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Note the sex museum follow-up idea",
       "verworfen_weil": "That was discussed much earlier and the group has moved on; no active need."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [
      "Show address",
      "Check hours",
      "Buy tickets"
     ],
     "karte": true,
     "kategorie": "place",
     "titel": "Museum of Illusions NYC",
     "zeile": "Address, hours, and tickets for Museum of Illusions",
     "aktion": "Opens Museum of Illusions NYC info with address, hours, and ticket link",
     "haltbar_s": 600,
     "grund": "The group just committed to visiting the Museum of Illusions and will need practical info about it during the ride and on arrival.",
     "verdict": "late",
     "late_by": 69,
     "need": "place",
     "need_start": 2560
    },
    "z-ai/glm-5.3-flash": {
     "lat": 17.6,
     "visible_at": 3112.6,
     "cost": 0.00234983,
     "raw": "{\n \"beobachtung\": \"[0:50:25] Speaker 1: 'Museum of Illusions? Eleven minutes away.' [0:50:35] 'Okay, I'm gonna change the location one more time, sir.' — after Color Factory was found closed at [0:42:40] and the illusion place at [0:50:05].\",\n \"vorhersage\": \"In roughly 10 minutes the group arrives at the Museum of Illusions; they will want to know it is actually open before walking into another closed door, and whether cameras/streaming are allowed given the sex museum kicked them out.\",\n \"reasoning\": \"They have already been burned twice today: Color Factory was closed and went to voicemail, and the sex museum removed them for filming. The Uber is rerouted and the ride is ~11 minutes, so the card becomes visible mid-ride with time to act. Checking opening status and camera policy now prevents a wasted stop. Waiting until arrival would be too late to reroute again.\",\n \"alternativen\": [{\"karte\": \"Book tickets for Museum of Illusions\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"They haven't decided on buying tickets and I must not invent prices; also they may just walk in.\"}, {\"karte\": \"Sugar Factory backup plan\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"They already deprioritized it as too far; no active need.\"}],\n \"karte\": true,\n \"kategorie\": \"place\",\n \"titel\": \"Illusions Museum: open?\",\n \"zeile\": \"Verify hours and camera policy before arrival\",\n \"aktion\": \"Opens the Museum of Illusions listing with hours and contact info\",\n \"optionen\": [\"Call the museum\", \"Check hours\", \"Skip, just go\"],\n \"haltbar_s\": 480,\n \"konfidenz\": 0.62,\n \"risiko\": \"Annoying if the museum is obviously open or if the group changes destination again mid-ride, as they have done repeatedly.\",\n \"grund\": \"After two closed-venue failures, verifying the newly chosen Museum of Illusions is open and camera-friendly during the remaining ride is the highest-value silent assist.\"\n}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "[0:50:25] Speaker 1: 'Museum of Illusions? Eleven minutes away.' [0:50:35] 'Okay, I'm gonna change the location one more time, sir.' — after Color Factory was found closed at [0:42:40] and the illusion place at [0:50:05].",
     "vorhersage": "In roughly 10 minutes the group arrives at the Museum of Illusions; they will want to know it is actually open before walking into another closed door, and whether cameras/streaming are allowed given the sex museum kicked them out.",
     "reasoning": "They have already been burned twice today: Color Factory was closed and went to voicemail, and the sex museum removed them for filming. The Uber is rerouted and the ride is ~11 minutes, so the card becomes visible mid-ride with time to act. Checking opening status and camera policy now prevents a wasted stop. Waiting until arrival would be too late to reroute again.",
     "risiko": "Annoying if the museum is obviously open or if the group changes destination again mid-ride, as they have done repeatedly.",
     "konfidenz": 0.62,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Book tickets for Museum of Illusions",
       "verworfen_weil": "They haven't decided on buying tickets and I must not invent prices; also they may just walk in."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Sugar Factory backup plan",
       "verworfen_weil": "They already deprioritized it as too far; no active need."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [
      "Call the museum",
      "Check hours",
      "Skip, just go"
     ],
     "karte": true,
     "kategorie": "place",
     "titel": "Illusions Museum: open?",
     "zeile": "Verify hours and camera policy before arrival",
     "aktion": "Opens the Museum of Illusions listing with hours and contact info",
     "haltbar_s": 480,
     "grund": "After two closed-venue failures, verifying the newly chosen Museum of Illusions is open and camera-friendly during the remaining ride is the highest-value silent assist.",
     "verdict": "late",
     "late_by": 78,
     "need": "place",
     "need_start": 2560
    },
    "openai/gpt-5.6-luna": {
     "lat": 7.8,
     "visible_at": 3102.8,
     "cost": 0.0057771,
     "raw": "{\n  \"beobachtung\": \"“I'm down to go to the Museum of Illusions.” [0:50:30] followed by “I'm gonna change the location one more time” [0:50:35]\",\n  \"vorhersage\": \"While still in the Uber, they will need to confirm or revise the next destination for several minutes.\",\n  \"reasoning\": \"The group has repeatedly changed destinations after discovering places were closed, too far, or misunderstood. The Museum of Illusions is the latest agreed plan, and the driver is actively rerouting, so confirmation remains useful when the card appears. The 10–30 second latency is unlikely to outlast the ride-planning need. Earlier indecision makes a compact destination confirmation more useful than another venue suggestion.\",\n  \"alternativen\": [\n    {\n      \"karte\": \"Venue hours check\",\n      \"verworfen_weil\": \"They need a destination decision first, and hours may change the plan again.\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"karte\": \"Uber ride status\",\n      \"verworfen_weil\": \"The driver and group are already managing the ride verbally.\"\n    }\n  ],\n  \"karte\": true,\n  \"kategorie\": \"transport\",\n  \"titel\": \"Confirm Next Stop\",\n  \"zeile\": \"Choose the destination before the Uber reroutes again.\",\n  \"aktion\": \"Set the selected destination in Maps and share it with the ride group.\",\n  \"optionen\": [\n    \"Museum of Illusions\",\n    \"Madame Tussauds\",\n    \"Choose another place\"\n  ],\n  \"haltbar_s\": 420,\n  \"konfidenz\": 0.9,\n  \"risiko\": \"Annoying or wrong if the driver has already completed the reroute or the group changes plans again.\",\n  \"grund\": \"The group has a clear but repeatedly shifting destination decision that will persist through the next several minutes.\"\n}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "“I'm down to go to the Museum of Illusions.” [0:50:30] followed by “I'm gonna change the location one more time” [0:50:35]",
     "vorhersage": "While still in the Uber, they will need to confirm or revise the next destination for several minutes.",
     "reasoning": "The group has repeatedly changed destinations after discovering places were closed, too far, or misunderstood. The Museum of Illusions is the latest agreed plan, and the driver is actively rerouting, so confirmation remains useful when the card appears. The 10–30 second latency is unlikely to outlast the ride-planning need. Earlier indecision makes a compact destination confirmation more useful than another venue suggestion.",
     "risiko": "Annoying or wrong if the driver has already completed the reroute or the group changes plans again.",
     "konfidenz": 0.9,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Venue hours check",
       "verworfen_weil": "They need a destination decision first, and hours may change the plan again."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Uber ride status",
       "verworfen_weil": "The driver and group are already managing the ride verbally."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [
      "Museum of Illusions",
      "Madame Tussauds",
      "Choose another place"
     ],
     "karte": true,
     "kategorie": "transport",
     "titel": "Confirm Next Stop",
     "zeile": "Choose the destination before the Uber reroutes again.",
     "aktion": "Set the selected destination in Maps and share it with the ride group.",
     "haltbar_s": 420,
     "grund": "The group has a clear but repeatedly shifting destination decision that will persist through the next several minutes.",
     "verdict": "repeat",
     "need": "transport",
     "need_start": 1323
    },
    "google/gemini-3.8-flash": {
     "lat": 11.1,
     "visible_at": 3106.1,
     "cost": 0.021783,
     "raw": "{\"beobachtung\": \"[0:50:30] Speaker 1: 'Museum of Illusions? Eleven minutes away. Ooh, I'm down to go to the Museum of Illusions.' / [0:50:35] Speaker 1: 'Okay, I'm gonna change the location one more time, sir.'\", \"reasoning\": \"The 'aufbruch' filter triggered erroneously because the crew just updated their Uber route rather than arriving or departing. They are in the middle of an estimated 11-minute drive and actively chatting with the driver about boxing and travel. Given that the group has already flipped between five different destinations in the span of a few minutes, committing to Museum of Illusions info now is premature. Interrupting Marlon's live on-camera conversation with the driver provides no immediate value at this stage of the ride.\", \"alternativen\": [{\"karte\": \"Museum of Illusions ticket booking and opening hours\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"Destination choice is highly volatile and the ride still has roughly ten minutes remaining.\"}], \"karte\": false, \"grund\": \"The group is mid-ride with roughly ten minutes to go and chatting with the driver, making an arrival or booking card premature.\"}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "[0:50:30] Speaker 1: 'Museum of Illusions? Eleven minutes away. Ooh, I'm down to go to the Museum of Illusions.' / [0:50:35] Speaker 1: 'Okay, I'm gonna change the location one more time, sir.'",
     "vorhersage": "",
     "reasoning": "The 'aufbruch' filter triggered erroneously because the crew just updated their Uber route rather than arriving or departing. They are in the middle of an estimated 11-minute drive and actively chatting with the driver about boxing and travel. Given that the group has already flipped between five different destinations in the span of a few minutes, committing to Museum of Illusions info now is premature. Interrupting Marlon's live on-camera conversation with the driver provides no immediate value at this stage of the ride.",
     "risiko": "",
     "konfidenz": null,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Museum of Illusions ticket booking and opening hours",
       "verworfen_weil": "Destination choice is highly volatile and the ride still has roughly ten minutes remaining."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [],
     "verdict": "silent",
     "karte": false,
     "grund": "The group is mid-ride with roughly ten minutes to go and chatting with the driver, making an arrival or booking card premature."
    },
    "openai/gpt-5.6-sol": {
     "lat": 12.3,
     "visible_at": 3107.3,
     "cost": 0.054361,
     "raw": "{\"beobachtung\":\"[0:50:25] Speaker 1: “Museum of Illusions? Eleven minutes away.” [0:50:35] “I'm gonna change the location one more time, sir.”\",\"vorhersage\":\"They will need confirmed hours, admission availability, and filming rules before arrival, for about 10 minutes.\",\"reasoning\":\"The group has selected the Museum of Illusions and is already traveling there, so venue verification is useful now. The card will appear during the roughly eleven-minute ride, leaving time to check or call before arrival. Earlier, they were removed from the Sex Museum over filming and nearly traveled to a venue they believed was closed. Because they have rerouted repeatedly, the card should focus on verification rather than assume they will definitely enter.\",\"alternativen\":[{\"karte\":\"Madame Tussauds details\",\"verworfen_weil\":\"They replaced the wax museum with the Museum of Illusions.\"},{\"karte\":\"Route to Museum of Illusions\",\"verworfen_weil\":\"The Uber destination has already been changed.\"}],\"karte\":true,\"kategorie\":\"place\",\"titel\":\"Museum of Illusions Check\",\"zeile\":\"Confirm today’s hours, tickets, and filming policy before arrival.\",\"aktion\":\"Open official venue information, ticket availability, and contact options.\",\"optionen\":[\"Check hours\",\"View tickets\",\"Call venue\"],\"haltbar_s\":600,\"konfidenz\":0.91,\"risiko\":\"It becomes irrelevant if they reroute again before the card appears.\",\"grund\":\"A quick venue check can prevent another closed-door or filming-policy failure.\"}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "[0:50:25] Speaker 1: “Museum of Illusions? Eleven minutes away.” [0:50:35] “I'm gonna change the location one more time, sir.”",
     "vorhersage": "They will need confirmed hours, admission availability, and filming rules before arrival, for about 10 minutes.",
     "reasoning": "The group has selected the Museum of Illusions and is already traveling there, so venue verification is useful now. The card will appear during the roughly eleven-minute ride, leaving time to check or call before arrival. Earlier, they were removed from the Sex Museum over filming and nearly traveled to a venue they believed was closed. Because they have rerouted repeatedly, the card should focus on verification rather than assume they will definitely enter.",
     "risiko": "It becomes irrelevant if they reroute again before the card appears.",
     "konfidenz": 0.91,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Madame Tussauds details",
       "verworfen_weil": "They replaced the wax museum with the Museum of Illusions."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Route to Museum of Illusions",
       "verworfen_weil": "The Uber destination has already been changed."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [
      "Check hours",
      "View tickets",
      "Call venue"
     ],
     "karte": true,
     "kategorie": "place",
     "titel": "Museum of Illusions Check",
     "zeile": "Confirm today’s hours, tickets, and filming policy before arrival.",
     "aktion": "Open official venue information, ticket availability, and contact options.",
     "haltbar_s": 600,
     "grund": "A quick venue check can prevent another closed-door or filming-policy failure.",
     "verdict": "late",
     "late_by": 72,
     "need": "place",
     "need_start": 2560
    },
    "moonshotai/kimi-k3": {
     "lat": 40.8,
     "visible_at": 3135.8,
     "cost": 0.094353,
     "raw": "{\n \"beobachtung\": \"[0:50:25] Speaker 4: 'Museum of Illusions? Eleven minutes away. Ooh, I'm down to go to the Museum of Illusions.' / [0:50:35] Speaker 1: 'Okay, I'm gonna change the location one more time, sir.'\",\n \"vorhersage\": \"When the card appears (51:40-52:00) the group is mid-Uber heading to the Museum of Illusions; the need to verify it is open and secure timed tickets persists for the whole remaining ride, roughly 10 more minutes.\",\n \"reasoning\": \"The destination just got locked after four reroutes, so now is the first moment a venue card targets the right place. They have been burned twice already (Color Factory closed, 'Illusion Place' reported closed), so checking hours and booking timed tickets before arrival has real value. Later is worse: once they pull up, the booking window is gone and they risk another sidewalk rejection on stream. The 10-30s latency is harmless because the ride itself is ~11 minutes, so the need is fully intact when the card shows. Earlier stream context (Sex Museum ejection, constant plan churn) makes verification more valuable, not less.\",\n \"alternativen\": [\n  {\"karte\": \"Text Oct the group's ETA\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"Plan is explicitly 'after this'; the need is real but not time-critical yet and is better served when they leave the museum.\"},\n  {\"karte\": \"Confirm/change Uber destination\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"They already changed it in the app themselves in seconds; no lasting need.\"},\n  {\"karte\": \"Sex Museum manager follow-up\", \"verworfen_weil\": \"Jason already emailed and they are waiting on a callback; nothing actionable right now.\"}\n ],\n \"karte\": true,\n \"kategorie\": \"booking\",\n \"titel\": \"Museum of Illusions tickets\",\n \"zeile\": \"Check hours and grab timed tickets before arrival — you're about 11 minutes out.\",\n \"aktion\": \"Opens the venue page with today's hours and timed-ticket booking\",\n \"optionen\": [\"Book timed tickets\", \"Check opening hours\", \"Call the venue\"],\n \"haltbar_s\": 600,\n \"konfidenz\": 0.7,\n \"risiko\": \"Wrong or annoying if they reroute a fifth time, or if someone in the car already checked hours and tickets on their own phone.\",\n \"grund\": \"Destination is finally locked to the Museum of Illusions with ~11 minutes of ride left, so verifying hours and booking timed tickets now prevents a third closed-door failure on stream.\"\n}",
     "error": null,
     "beobachtung": "[0:50:25] Speaker 4: 'Museum of Illusions? Eleven minutes away. Ooh, I'm down to go to the Museum of Illusions.' / [0:50:35] Speaker 1: 'Okay, I'm gonna change the location one more time, sir.'",
     "vorhersage": "When the card appears (51:40-52:00) the group is mid-Uber heading to the Museum of Illusions; the need to verify it is open and secure timed tickets persists for the whole remaining ride, roughly 10 more minutes.",
     "reasoning": "The destination just got locked after four reroutes, so now is the first moment a venue card targets the right place. They have been burned twice already (Color Factory closed, 'Illusion Place' reported closed), so checking hours and booking timed tickets before arrival has real value. Later is worse: once they pull up, the booking window is gone and they risk another sidewalk rejection on stream. The 10-30s latency is harmless because the ride itself is ~11 minutes, so the need is fully intact when the card shows. Earlier stream context (Sex Museum ejection, constant plan churn) makes verification more valuable, not less.",
     "risiko": "Wrong or annoying if they reroute a fifth time, or if someone in the car already checked hours and tickets on their own phone.",
     "konfidenz": 0.7,
     "alternativen": [
      {
       "karte": "Text Oct the group's ETA",
       "verworfen_weil": "Plan is explicitly 'after this'; the need is real but not time-critical yet and is better served when they leave the museum."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Confirm/change Uber destination",
       "verworfen_weil": "They already changed it in the app themselves in seconds; no lasting need."
      },
      {
       "karte": "Sex Museum manager follow-up",
       "verworfen_weil": "Jason already emailed and they are waiting on a callback; nothing actionable right now."
      }
     ],
     "optionen": [
      "Book timed tickets",
      "Check opening hours",
      "Call the venue"
     ],
     "karte": true,
     "kategorie": "booking",
     "titel": "Museum of Illusions tickets",
     "zeile": "Check hours and grab timed tickets before arrival — you're about 11 minutes out.",
     "aktion": "Opens the venue page with today's hours and timed-ticket booking",
     "haltbar_s": 600,
     "grund": "Destination is finally locked to the Museum of Illusions with ~11 minutes of ride left, so verifying hours and booking timed tickets now prevents a third closed-door failure on stream.",
     "verdict": "late",
     "late_by": 576,
     "need": "booking",
     "need_start": 1949
    }
   }
  }
 ],
 "summary": {
  "deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash": {
   "config": "reasoning off",
   "hits": 6,
   "hit_needs": [
    "followup@1957",
    "followup@547",
    "place@2560",
    "place@626",
    "transport@1323",
    "transport@652"
   ],
   "reachable_total": 7,
   "late": 7,
   "false": 2,
   "repeat": 3,
   "silent": 0,
   "unparsable": 0,
   "cards": 33,
   "lat_p50": 5.9,
   "lat_p90": 14.4,
   "lat_max": 54.7,
   "cost": 0.0704
  },
  "z-ai/glm-5.3-flash": {
   "config": "reasoning effort low",
   "hits": 6,
   "hit_needs": [
    "followup@1957",
    "followup@547",
    "place@2560",
    "place@626",
    "transport@1323",
    "transport@652"
   ],
   "reachable_total": 7,
   "late": 7,
   "false": 1,
   "repeat": 2,
   "silent": 9,
   "unparsable": 0,
   "cards": 24,
   "lat_p50": 13.9,
   "lat_p90": 30.2,
   "lat_max": 61.6,
   "cost": 0.0468
  },
  "openai/gpt-5.6-luna": {
   "config": "default",
   "hits": 6,
   "hit_needs": [
    "booking",
    "followup@1957",
    "followup@547",
    "place@2560",
    "place@626",
    "transport@652"
   ],
   "reachable_total": 7,
   "late": 13,
   "false": 1,
   "repeat": 6,
   "silent": 2,
   "unparsable": 0,
   "cards": 31,
   "lat_p50": 8.4,
   "lat_p90": 10.1,
   "lat_max": 11.3,
   "cost": 0.1115
  },
  "google/gemini-3.8-flash": {
   "config": "default",
   "hits": 0,
   "hit_needs": [],
   "reachable_total": 7,
   "late": 0,
   "false": 0,
   "repeat": 0,
   "silent": 33,
   "unparsable": 0,
   "cards": 0,
   "lat_p50": 10.4,
   "lat_p90": 20.3,
   "lat_max": 22.8,
   "cost": 0.4265
  },
  "openai/gpt-5.6-sol": {
   "config": "default",
   "hits": 5,
   "hit_needs": [
    "followup@1957",
    "followup@547",
    "place@2560",
    "place@626",
    "transport@1323"
   ],
   "reachable_total": 7,
   "late": 2,
   "false": 0,
   "repeat": 2,
   "silent": 19,
   "unparsable": 0,
   "cards": 14,
   "lat_p50": 7.6,
   "lat_p90": 12.7,
   "lat_max": 19.6,
   "cost": 0.9524
  },
  "moonshotai/kimi-k3": {
   "config": "default",
   "hits": 6,
   "hit_needs": [
    "booking",
    "followup@1957",
    "followup@547",
    "place@2560",
    "place@626",
    "transport@652"
   ],
   "reachable_total": 7,
   "late": 13,
   "false": 0,
   "repeat": 1,
   "silent": 2,
   "unparsable": 0,
   "cards": 31,
   "lat_p50": 70.5,
   "lat_p90": 200.6,
   "lat_max": 221.0,
   "cost": 2.1012
  }
 }
}